SMM Nickel News, March 16: Macro and Market News: (1) The financial statistics report for February released by the central bank showed that at month-end February, broad money (M2) balance stood at 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9% YoY; cumulative aggregate social financing for the first two months was 9.6 trillion yuan, 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; new RMB loans in the first two months increased by 5.61 trillion yuan; the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits was 345.72 trillion yuan, up 8.8% YoY; and the month-end RMB deposit balance was 337.94 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY. (2) The central bank said in its tender announcement for open-market outright reverse repo operations that on March 16, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through a fixed-quantity, interest-rate bidding, and multiple-price allocation method, with a tenor of six months (182 days). Spot Market: On March 16, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 2,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,700 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream branded electrodeposited nickel was at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fell sharply intraday and closed the morning session at 135,990 yuan/mt, down 1.83%. Tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, intensifying inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, creating clear pressure on nickel prices. Despite significant macro pressure, the industry-level support logic has not changed, and market concerns over tightening supply of nickel intermediate products remain. Short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.

As of March 16, tungsten prices in China saw a slight correction, with APT quoted at 1.505 million yuan/mt. The market's fear of high prices was released, entering a phase of rational wait-and-see. Outside China, supply remained persistently tight, with the average APT Rotterdam price at $2,200/mtu, while weekly gains in tungsten scrap prices in India and Europe exceeded 25%.

SMM, March 16: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract opened higher and extended gains today, while market transactions were relatively sluggish. Futures later fell, and as buying sentiment strengthened and price acceptance improved, transaction prices in the spot market moved higher. Today’s mainstream quotations and transaction prices were mainly concentrated between a discount of 10 yuan/mt and the average price. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.07, down 0.26 WoW; the purchase sentiment index was 2.66, up 0.11 WoW. Today, aluminum prices continued to edge lower from last Friday, and with inventory remaining high, traders in the central China market showed limited bullish sentiment. Overall purchase volumes recovered somewhat from the previous two trading days. As futures prices declined, market premiums showed a continued upward trend. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were mainly concentrated between a discount of 10 yuan to the central China price and a premium of 20 yuan to the central China price, and moved higher throughout the session. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.58, down 0.09 WoW; the purchase sentiment index was 2.36, up 0.01 WoW. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 18,500 mt WoW today, with all three regions showing inventory buildup. In the short term, following the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

[SMM Daily Review: Cost Support Met Cooling Downstream Prices, Putting Pressure on High-Grade NPI Prices] March 16 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.89, down 0.03 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.63, down 0.09 MoM.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Module Prices Have Softened Somewhat, While Polysilicon Prices Remain Temporarily Stable] Recently, transaction prices for modules in China have softened somewhat. As demand outside China declines and domestic projects are at the point of being about to start, module enterprises have shown differing attitudes in their quotations. Some enterprises have begun offering concessions in advance to take orders, and distributors have also recently started shipments at low prices, thereby leading to a decline in the market transaction price center. At present, quoted prices for distributed Topcon183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are 0.752 Yuan/W, 0.767 Yuan/W, and 0.77 Yuan/W, respectively, while quoted prices for centralized Topcon182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are 0.727 Yuan/W and 0747 Yuan/W, respectively.

In early March 2026, Qatalum—the 648,000-tonne-per-year primary aluminum smelter in Qatar, a 50/50 joint venture between Norsk Hydro and Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Company initiated a controlled shutdown of production. The decision, effective from March 3, followed a warning from gas supplier QatarEnergy that natural gas deliveries would be fully suspended due to disruptions linked to the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, including attacks on regional energy infrastructure.

In North China today, spot #1 copper cathode was quoted at parity to a premium of 120 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with the average premium at 60 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 99,125 yuan/mt, down 1,345 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Ouyang Minggao pointed out that large-scale mass production of all-solid-state batteries will still require 3–5 years, with test vehicles expected to appear by the end of 2026. Sulphide electrolyte has fallen from 20 million/mt to the million-level range. However, he stressed that the technical difficulty is extremely high and advised consumers that they “need not wait,” as LFP batteries remain the “ballast stone” at present.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Geopolitical Premiums Persist, Aluminum Prices Remained Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and was expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China, meanwhile, was in a phase of high inventory plus weak spot fundamentals, with upward momentum clearly weaker than outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio was expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices were expected to remain fluctuating at highs in the short term.

SMM News, March 16: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,938/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead prices moved steadily around the daily average line, briefly touching a high of $1,638.5/mt. Entering the European session, bulls and bears were evenly matched, and LME lead continued to fluctuate rangebound around the daily average line. Later, bears took the lead, sending LME lead fluctuating downward. Around midnight, LME lead prices plunged to a low of $1,890/mt before finally closing at $1,903/mt, down $32.5/mt, or 1.68%. Trading volume fell to 7,363 lots, while open interest increased by 2,494 lots to 176,000 lots. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,550 yuan/mt. It edged up at the beginning of the session, then retreated slightly after touching a high of 16,565 yuan/mt. Thereafter, amid a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, SHFE lead fluctuated rangebound in the 16,385-16,465 yuan/mt range, and closed near the session low at 16,395 yuan/mt. It posted a long lower-shadow bearish candlestick, down 160 yuan/mt, or 0.97%. Trading volume fell to 28,599 lots, while open interest increased by 2,715 lots to 66,396 lots. At present, lead prices remained mainly in the doldrums overall, lacking a clear unilateral trend. In the primary lead spot market, divergence between north and south China was evident: cargoes in north China were shipped at discounts, while some supply in south China was tight, prompting sellers to hold prices firm. Secondary lead smelters cut or halted production due to losses, and the tightening of circulating supply provided some support to prices. However, downstream procurement remained cautious and was mainly driven by rigid demand, with weak purchase willingness. As the price spread between primary lead and secondary lead narrowed, part of demand shifted to primary lead, and secondary lead transactions were sluggish. Overall, lead prices were unlikely to see a marked rebound in the short term and would likely remain rangebound, with follow-up attention needed on inventory changes and smelter production conditions.