ArcelorMittal (AM) — 2025 Annual Report Summary ArcelorMittal, the world's second-largest steel producer, released its 2025 Annual Report in March 2026. During the year, the Group's steelmaking operations experienced a broad-based slowdown: crude steel output in Europe contracted sharply by 6.6% year-on-year, while volumes in India and Brazil also declined. Only North America recorded output growth, driven by the consolidation of an additional steelworks. These dynamics reflect softening apparent steel consumption (ASC) globally, compounded by intensifying competitive pressures. Nonetheless, the Mining segment delivered an outstanding performance — iron ore shipments from Liberia surged 37.5%, providing a meaningful offset to the headwinds in the steelmaking divisions. I. 2025 Key Production, Shipment & Financial Overview In 2025, ArcelorMittal demonstrated strong operational resilience against the backdrop of subdued global steel demand and complex trade barriers. Portfolio optimisation — notably the full consolidation of the Calvert flat-rolled finishing facility — and robust growth in the iron ore business were the key highlights of the year. Despite a marginal decline in crude steel production and shipments, net profit expanded materially, primarily driven by non-recurring items — in particular, a US$1.9 billion accounting gain arising from the acquisition of the remaining 50% equity interest in AMNS Calvert. The increase in net debt was principally attributable to the full consolidation of Calvert and other M&A activities. II. Segment Distribution & Operational Performance In 2025, ArcelorMittal's global operational footprint underwent significant structural reconfiguration, most notably through the full acquisition of the North American Calvert flat-rolling facility and the divestiture of non-core assets in Bosnia-Herzegovina, further optimising the Group's production and shipment mix. The following presents a detailed comparison of key segment production and shipment data for 2025 versus the prior year: North America The segment recorded growth in both output and shipments in 2025, primarily benefiting from the full consolidation of the AMNS Calvert facility in the second half of the year, and the recovery of Mexican production following the 2024 labour strike. Crude Steel Production: 7.8 Mt (2024: 7.5 Mt), up 2.9% YoY Steel Shipments: 10.3 Mt (2024: 10.1 Mt), up 2.2% YoY Key Development: The 1.5 Mtpa Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) at the Calvert facility was commissioned in June 2025, enhancing the supply capability of high value-added flat products in the region. 2026 Volume Outlook: Both production and shipments are expected to increase in line with broader regional trends. Growth Driver: The 1.5 Mtpa EAF at Calvert, consolidated in H2 2025, is currently in capacity ramp-up phase and will contribute incremental volumes in 2026. Brazil Despite margin pressure, the Brazil segment maintained highly stable production and shipment volumes, continuing to serve as a key profitability pillar for the Group. Crude Steel Production: 14.3 Mt (2024: 14.5 Mt), down 1.3% YoY Steel Shipments: 13.9 Mt (2024: 14.1 Mt), down 0.9% YoY Key Development: The Barra Mansa long products mill expansion was commissioned in H2 2025, adding 0.4 Mtpa of high value-added long steel capacity. 2026 Volume Outlook: Steel shipments are projected to reach 15.4 Mt in 2026, significantly above the 13.95 Mt recorded in 2025. Growth Driver: Despite demand headwinds in 2025 caused by elevated interest rates and a surge in Chinese imports, the Group holds an optimistic outlook for 2026 growth. Europe Affected by soft market demand and a planned major reline of Blast Furnace No. 4 at Dunkirk, European crude steel output contracted. However, the smaller decline in shipments indicates relatively resilient market penetration. Crude Steel Production: 29.2 Mt (2024: 31.2 Mt), down 6.6% YoY Steel Shipments: 28.4 Mt (2024: 28.7 Mt), down 0.9% YoY Key Development: The divestiture of the Zenica long products integrated steelworks in Bosnia-Herzegovina was completed in October, reflecting the Group's strategic transition toward lower-carbon assets. 2026 Volume Outlook: Shipments are expected to recover and grow. Growth Driver: As the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the revised Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) regime progressively take effect in 2026, the Group anticipates European domestic steelmakers recapturing market share from import competition. India & Other Joint Ventures Focus on the strategic joint venture AMNS India (60% equity interest): Crude Steel Production: 7.2 Mt (2024: 7.5 Mt), down 4.5% YoY, impacted by market volatility in H1 and unplanned maintenance outages Steel Shipments: 7.9 Mt (2024: 7.9 Mt), shipments remained resilient Key Development: The Hazira integrated steelworks in India is being expanded to 15 Mtpa capacity. The Group has also announced a long-term greenfield project in Andhra Pradesh with an 8.2 Mtpa capacity target, with the objective of increasing hot-rolled coil (HRC) capacity to 15 Mtpa by H2 2026, providing incremental production and shipment uplift. Crude Steel Production (Other Subsidiaries): 4.3 Mt (2024: 4.6 Mt), down 6.52% YoY Mining The Mining segment was the Group's strongest growth engine in 2025, driven by the successful ramp-up of the Phase II expansion project in Liberia. Own Iron Ore Production (Mining segment only): 35.3 Mt (2024: 27.9 Mt), up 26.5% YoY Iron Ore Shipments: 36.3 Mt (2024: 26.4 Mt), up 37.5% YoY Key Development: Liberia achieved a record annual shipment of 10 Mt and is progressing steadily toward a 20 Mtpa production target. 2026 Mining Segment Outlook: Liberia (AML): Volume Target: 20 Mtpa shipment target. The Group specifically projects that by end-2026, as the Phase II expansion and the beneficiation plant continue to ramp up, annualised shipments will exceed 18 Mtpa (vs. 10 Mt in 2025). Key Progress: A blended production model combining sinter fines and concentrates from Phase II will support a significant increase in production and shipment volumes, with rail haulage capacity being expanded toward a 30 Mtpa annual throughput target. Canada (AMMC): Trend: Stable production maintained. The conversion of the high-grade iron ore pellet plant for Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) production is expected to be completed in Q2 2026. 2026 Production & Shipment Outlook Summary The 2025 production and shipment profile signals ArcelorMittal's strategic pivot toward quality over pure volume. Despite marginal fluctuations in crude steel output in Europe and Brazil, the growth from high value-added assets in North America and low-cost iron ore operations in Liberia is structurally rebuilding the Group's cost and margin base. The Group projects global apparent steel consumption (ASC) ex-China to grow by 2% in 2026. Against this macro backdrop, the Group forecasts an increase in steel production and shipments across all regions in 2026 compared to 2025, underpinned by improvements in operational efficiency and the positive impact of trade protection measures. III. Production Infrastructure & Process Technology Profile ArcelorMittal operates a highly diversified asset portfolio spanning the full upstream-to-downstream value chain — from iron ore mining to downstream finishing and processing. As of end-2025, the Group's production process structure is as follows: Process Mix: Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF) output accounts for 74% (41.2 Mt); Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) accounts for 26% (14.4 Mt). Facility Scale: The Group currently operates 30 Blast Furnaces (BF) and 27 Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF) . Capacity Distribution: Europe remains the largest production base, with an annual crude steel capacity of 39.5 Mt (53% of total), followed by Brazil (16.4 Mt) and North America (12.5 Mt). IV. Raw Material Self-Sufficiency & Supply Chain Integration The Group maintains a high degree of vertical integration upstream and downstream to hedge against market volatility — a core pillar of its industrial competitive advantage: Iron Ore Supply: Own iron ore production grew 15.1% YoY to 48.8 Mt in 2025. Canada (AMMC) contributed 25.6 Mt, while Liberia (AML) surged to 9.7 Mt. Self-Sufficiency Rates: In 2025, the Group achieved an iron ore self-sufficiency rate of 72% , a coking coal self-sufficiency rate of 91% , and a scrap steel and Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) self-sufficiency rate of 55% . Logistics Capacity: The Group operates 18 deep-water port facilities and associated rail infrastructure, handling over 51 Mt of freight annually. V. Key Asset Restructuring & Industrial Portfolio Realignment 2025 was a year of deep portfolio optimisation for the Group — divesting weaker assets and concentrating resources in high-growth, high value-added operations. Full Consolidation of Calvert (USA): In June 2025, the Group completed the acquisition of the remaining 50% equity interest in AMNS Calvert (previously a joint venture with Nippon Steel Corporation) at a nominal consideration. The facility is the most advanced flat-rolled steel finishing complex in North America. The newly constructed 1.5 Mtpa EAF produced its first slab in June 2025. Asset Divestitures & Operational Rationalisation: Bosnia-Herzegovina: Completed the sale of the Zenica integrated steelworks and the Prijedor iron ore mine. South Africa: Rationalisation of the long products business and the idling of the Newcastle steelworks were completed by end of January 2026. India Expansion: AMNS India remains a core growth engine. The Hazira integrated steelworks is on track to expand capacity to 15 Mtpa by H2 2026. VI. Major Capital Project Progress (Capex Allocation) ArcelorMittal is currently in a dual capital expenditure cycle: EAF transition and upstream iron ore capacity expansion . Total capital expenditure in 2025 amounted to US$4.34 billion . VII. Decarbonisation Pathway & Industrial Technology Upgrade ArcelorMittal is at a critical juncture in its transition from conventional blast furnace-based integrated steelmaking toward low-carbon process routes: EAF Capacity Expansion: By end-2026, the Group expects to add 3.4 Mtpa of EAF capacity, spanning Gijón and Sestao in Spain, and Calvert in the USA. Key Technology Projects: The 2.0 Mtpa EAF project at Dunkirk, France (€1.3 billion investment) is planned for commissioning in 2029 and is expected to generate carbon emissions at approximately one-third of the level of a conventional blast furnace. Energy Transition: By end-2025, the Group had commissioned 1.6 GW of renewable energy equity capacity, with a further 1.2 GW under construction, primarily in India and South America, with the objective of supplying low-cost clean electricity to steelmaking operations. Carbon Footprint: Absolute carbon emissions declined 3.1% YoY in 2025, representing a cumulative reduction of 47% from the 2018 baseline. It is noteworthy that, given the limited commercial-scale deployment of low-carbon technologies (green hydrogen, Carbon Capture and Storage), the Group's emissions reductions are currently achieved primarily through portfolio restructuring and EAF electrification . VIII. Additional Key Information Portfolio Optimisation: Full Acquisition of Calvert: By acquiring NSC's 50% equity stake, ArcelorMittal has gained full operational control of North America's most advanced flat-rolled steel finishing complex. Exit from Non-Core Assets: The divestiture of the high-carbon-intensity integrated steelworks at Zenica, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and associated iron ore mines reflects a "decarbonise first, then grow" portfolio strategy. Operational Risks: Geopolitical Risk: The Kryvyi Rih steelworks in Ukraine (AMKR) is currently operating at only 35% of rated capacity , facing significant logistics and supply chain disruption. Trade Barriers: US Section 232 tariffs were raised to 50% in 2025, increasing the cost burden on cross-regional material flows. 2026 Outlook: Global apparent steel consumption (ASC) ex-China is projected to grow 2% . The Group's capital expenditure plan for 2026 is budgeted in the range of US$4.5–5.0 billion , with continued focus on the Liberia iron ore expansion and the electrification of process technology in Europe. Summary: 2025 was a year of "deepening asset quality" for ArcelorMittal. By converting its core North American joint venture Calvert into a wholly-owned subsidiary, and achieving successful delivery milestones at the Liberia iron ore mine and India's green energy projects, the Group further consolidated its vertically integrated competitive advantages. For investors, the sustainability of free cash flow generation and the recovery of market share under the EU CBAM framework remain the key monitoring indicators over the next one to two years.
May 21, 2026 14:49When asked, "What were the sales volume and pricing of copper foil produced by your company in April 2026?" North Copper responded on May 19 via the investor interaction platform: The company's copper foil sales are performing well with balanced production and sales; the product is priced and sold on a market-based basis according to market supply and demand. North Copper also responded on May 19: The company's share price fluctuations are influenced by a combination of factors including the macro environment, market sentiment, capital flows, and the company's own performance. The recent share price fluctuations have been largely in line with the trend of publicly listed firms in the copper sector. The company has always focused on enhancing intrinsic value as the core of its market capitalization management, and is committed to the long-term alignment of corporate value and market performance through focusing on core business growth, optimizing governance structure, strengthening information disclosure, and implementing shareholder return plans. The content of the earnings briefing announced by North Copper on May 8 showed: 1 What is the current construction progress of the new 10kt rolled copper foil production line, and in which month of 2026 is it expected to be completed? North Copper responded: Some production lines of the company's 50,000 mt/year high performance rolled copper strip and foil and 2 million m² CCL project have reached the intended usable condition. The main products include high performance copper and copper alloy strip and rolled copper foil, of which copper alloy strip capacity is 25,000 mt/year and rolled copper foil capacity is 5,000 mt/year. 2 What caused the negative operating cash flow, and what is the impact on the company going forward? North Copper responded: The negative net cash flow from operating activities in Q1 was mainly due to two reasons: first, rising non-ferrous metal prices led to higher overall value of copper raw materials, increasing capital occupation; second, under the impact of geopolitical factors, international shipping rerouting and tight domestic railway dispatching caused copper raw material arrivals at the plant to be delayed versus plan, extending the capital turnover period. The company's current cash flow level can effectively support daily operations and debt repayment. Going forward, the company will take targeted measures to improve the situation. 3 Questions regarding the progress of Hujiaoyu mine asset injection. Specifically: Has the preliminary preparation work for the asset injection (such as auditing, valuation, and plan evaluation) been initiated? Does the company plan to complete this asset injection within 2026? Are there any material obstacles or uncertainties in the process that need to be disclosed to investors? Beyond strictly fulfilling the commitment to inject within 24 months, does the company's management have a clear goal and timetable to "strive for early completion"? What specific stage has the related work progressed to? North Copper responded: Hujiaoyu Mining Company, a subsidiary of the company's controlling shareholder Zhongtiaoshan Group, obtained the mining permit for newly added reserves on March 27, 2026. Preliminary work for obtaining the mine safety production permit is currently being actively advanced, and the conditions for injection into the publicly listed firm are not yet met. The company will initiate the asset injection process in a timely manner after all the above mining permits are obtained, fulfilling the relevant commitments. 4 After the completion of the 50,000 mt rolled copper foil and strip project, are there any further plans for new copper foil capacity construction and expansion? North Copper responded: Some production lines of the company's 50,000 mt/year high performance rolled copper strip and foil and 2 million m² CCL project have not yet been completed, and capacity has not been fully released. There are currently no new copper foil capacity expansion plans. 5 How does the company's management plan to manage market capitalization? North Copper responded: In accordance with the requirements of Regulatory Guidelines for Listed Companies No. 10 — Market Capitalization Management, the company will make comprehensive utilization of lawful and compliant methods, promote positive interaction between value and market capitalization through improving operational quality, strengthening information disclosure, and deepening investor communication, continuously improve and strengthen market capitalization management, and carry out scientific, effective, and compliant market capitalization management practices. 6 Given the strong Q1 2026 results, the share price has underperformed peers with weaker results. Does the company have any undisclosed adverse events? North Copper responded: In addition to operating performance, the company's share price is also influenced by various factors including the international situation, policy environment, financial market liquidity, capital market atmosphere, and investor psychological expectations. The company strictly fulfills its information disclosure obligations in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, and there are no material matters that should have been disclosed but were not. 7 What new progress will the company make in smart mines and digital factories this year? North Copper responded: The company will continue to advance the construction of smart mines and digital factories, deepen and expand new scenarios for digital-intelligent integration applications, and accelerate the implementation of the Tongkuangyu mine smart mine project. Within the year, the company plans to complete the installation of system equipment for the data center, integrated management and control hall, and other facilities. The digital-intelligent building is expected to be completed and put into operation. The 5G smart communication hub, industrial-grade ring network, and LHD operation positioning and metering projects are expected to achieve phased results, effectively enhancing the digital-intelligent level and operational efficiency of mining operations. 8 What are the main directions of R&D expenditure? North Copper responded: The company's R&D expenditure is focused on six core areas: resource reserve expansion and production increase, efficient mining and beneficiation technologies, smelting technology innovation, high-end copper-based materials, comprehensive utilization of resources, and intelligent mining. North Copper's Q1 2026 report released on April 29 showed: In Q1, the company achieved revenue of 10.044 billion yuan, up 46.89% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders was 615 million yuan, up 65.74% YoY. Regarding the reason for the revenue increase, North Copper stated in its Q1 report: It was mainly due to increased product sales volume and price increases. In addition, North Copper's 2025 annual report showed: The company achieved revenue of 27.916 billion yuan in 2025, up 15.80% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders was 791 million yuan, up 29.01% YoY. Major product production in 2025: copper cathode 300,300 mt, sulphuric acid 766,000 mt, gold ingots 6.4 mt, and silver ingots 68.5 mt. North Copper stated in its 2025 annual report: The company is primarily engaged in copper mining, ore beneficiation, smelting, and rolling processing. It currently has captive mines with annual ore processing of 9 million mt and self-produced copper metal content of 43,000 mt, copper smelting capacity of 320,000 mt, gold ingots 10.8 mt, silver ingots 170 mt, and sulphuric acid 1.22 million mt. It also recovers valuable metals including platinum, palladium, selenium, and bismuth through comprehensive utilization. Copper deep-processing products include high performance copper and copper alloy strip and rolled copper foil, of which copper alloy strip capacity is 25,000 mt/year and rolled copper foil capacity is 5,000 mt/year. The company has established an integrated industry chain from mining, ore beneficiation, smelting to rolling processing. The company's "Zhongtiaoshan" brand Grade-A copper is registered on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, and the "Zhongtiaoshan" brand gold and silver ingots are registered on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The company's mineral exploration status disclosed in North Copper's 2025 annual report showed: The company completed the detailed exploration project for deep replacement resources at the Tongkuangyu copper mine (below the 80m elevation), with the following main work completed: exploration tunnels 140.6 m, drilling chambers 12/2,823.6 m³, drilling 12 holes (including 3 hydrogeological holes), drilling volume 7,268.62 m, 1:2000 specialized hydrogeological and environmental geological survey 6 km², geophysical logging 2,065.61 m, and pumping tests on 3 holes; 8,091 sample analyses and tests, 46 sets of rock and ore tests, 99 bulk density samples, 20 copper phase analyses, 10 complete chemical analyses, and 12 complete water quality analyses. On February 20, 2025, the Shanxi Mining Association organized and completed the supervision and field acceptance of the detailed exploration project, issuing the supervision report and field acceptance report. In early March, the company completed the compilation of the Detailed Hydrogeological and Environmental Survey Report for the Deep Part of Tongkuangyu Mine. On March 17, the report was reviewed and approved by experts organized by the Shanxi Mining Association. In May, the company completed the compilation of the Detailed Exploration Report for Deep Replacement Resources at Tongkuangyu Copper Mine, Yuanqu County, Shanxi Province (hereinafter referred to as the Report). On May 23, the report was reviewed and approved by experts organized by the Shanxi Mining Association, and review opinions were issued. According to the Report, as of December 31, 2024, within the 80m to -325m elevation range of the Tongkuangyu mining area, the cumulative identified industrial ore body (No. 5) copper ore resources totaled 103.718 million mt, with an average grade of 0.84% and metal content of 869,600 mt. Associated gold metal content was 8,930 kg with an average grade of 0.09 g/t; associated molybdenum metal content was 3,727 mt with an average grade of 0.011%. Low-grade copper ore resources totaled 34.625 million mt, with an average grade of 0.25% and metal content of 88,200 mt. The explored resources reached a large scale, achieving significant exploration results and providing solid resource support for the company's industry chain layout. Regarding the company's copper ore resource reserves, North Copper disclosed in its annual report that as of the end of 2025, the Tongkuangyu mine retained copper ore resources of 4.664 million mt above the 80m elevation, with copper metal content of 1.2501 million mt. Meanwhile, below the 80m elevation at the bottom of the company's existing Tongkuangyu mine mining rights, the cumulative identified industrial ore body (No. 5) copper ore resources totaled 3.718 million mt, with an average grade of 0.84% and metal content of 869,600 mt. Regarding the 2026 production and operation plan, North Copper mentioned in its 2025 annual report: Major product production targets: copper cathode 300,000 mt, sulphuric acid 800,000 mt, gold ingots 6 mt, and silver ingots 60 mt, to maximize economic benefits. Regarding the outlook for copper, some institutions hold the following views: Tony Sage, CEO of Critical Metals, noted in a recent report that market participants remain bullish on the copper price outlook, driven by long-term demand from AI infrastructure, power grid modernization, and the global energy transition, coupled with supply constraints. He added that in the long run, the copper market may face a potential supply deficit, which will provide support for copper prices. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report noted that as Freeport once again delayed the production resumptions schedule for its Indonesian project and comprehensively lowered its production guidance for 2026-2027, global major miners' 2026 production expectations have officially entered a decline, and the potential impact of subsequent extreme weather may further amplify supply disruptions. We expect that the solid supply-demand fundamentals demonstrated by the better-than-expected destocking in China, along with easing macro headwinds, will support copper prices to stabilize at $13,000/mt in 2Q26, while the gap between supply-demand expectations could drive copper prices to challenge previous highs. We are optimistic about the allocation opportunity in the copper sector where earnings elasticity and valuation elasticity resonate.
May 19, 2026 16:52As a core vital raw material for manganese hydrometallurgy, sulfuric acid dominates production costs and process selection across the entire product chain. Major manganese products, including electrolytic manganese, diversified manganese sulfate, and electrolytic manganese dioxide (EMD), adopt distinct production processes with varied acid consumption structures.
May 15, 2026 17:35[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Dual Pressure from Policy and Demand, Secondary Aluminum Weekly Operating Rate Pulls Back] ADC12 prices are expected to move sideways in the short term. On the cost side, high-level support, combined with the tightening of reverse invoicing and expectations for production cuts at some enterprises, limits the downside room for prices; however, demand is unlikely to see significant improvement in the short term, and inventory remains in an accumulation cycle, which will continue to suppress upside room for prices. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the recovery of end-use consumption and the further impact of policies on the scale of production cuts on the supply side.
May 15, 2026 08:56[SMM Aluminum Alloy Brief] The operating rate of secondary aluminum industry leaders fell 0.6 percentage points WoW to 56.4% this week. Operating rates showed mixed performance among enterprises during the week: the fading impact of the Labour Day holiday and capacity expansion by individual enterprises drove a partial rebound in operating rates, but production cuts were more widespread across the industry. Production cuts were mainly dragged by two factors: first, weakening demand. As the industry entered the off-season, orders from downstream die-casting enterprises remained sluggish, with procurement dominated by rigid demand and small batches. Second, policy tightening. The reverse invoicing policy was further tightened, making it more difficult to obtain invoiced raw materials, passiv
May 14, 2026 18:40![ADC12 Stopped Falling and Rebounded, but Weak Demand Suppressed Upside Potential[SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/votes/imageskkgTu20240508153005.png)
[SMM Analysis]Policy Intensified Supply Contraction Supporting ADC12 Price Rebound, but Weak Demand Capped Upside Potential
May 14, 2026 18:28The 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum , organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and sponsored by China Securities International as platinum sponsor, wrapped up successfully at Novotel Hong Kong Century on May 6. With over 300 registrations and 200 on-site attendees, the forum focused on the theme "New Metals Cycle: Prices, Power & Global Wrestling". The event featured keynote speeches by industry experts and SMM analysts, covering base metals, new energy materials, and strategic revaluation of minor and precious metals. Two high-level panel sessions were held, exploring hot topics such as geopolitics, supply-demand fluctuations, CBAM impacts, and market opportunities. It also served as an efficient platform for networking and cooperation across entire industry chains. SMM Opening Address SMM Chairman Adam Fan SMM Chairman Adam Fan stated in the opening address that it was a great honor to gather with elites from all sectors of the industry at this forum. The world is currently at a critical development period, and the exchange of industry ideas is not only an industry necessity but also an inevitable requirement for global development. Adam reviewed the century-long legacy of the London Metal Exchange, which has weathered nearly 150 years of global changes and industry evolution, fully demonstrating that although market structures may change, the fundamental need for risk management and reliable price discovery remains constant. At the same time, Adam candidly acknowledged that global markets are currently mired in a pattern of deep fluctuations. Geopolitical conflicts, supply chain fragmentation, and the compounding crises of energy and food, overlaid with de-globalization and rising trade protectionism, have intensified market uncertainty and inflationary pressures, posing severe challenges to global economic growth and industrial cooperation. Against this backdrop, SMM has steadfastly upheld its mission, refusing to be a bystander to the trend of industry fragmentation, and is committed to serving as a bridge for global industrial connectivity amid a landscape of division. SMM is dedicated to promoting dialogue and exchange, breaking down industry and regional barriers, and bringing together regulators, traders, and producers from around the world to discuss industry development. SMM upholds the principle of information transparency, continuously providing accurate, real-time market data to help the industry see through market fog and clarify market distortions. SMM deepens pragmatic cooperation by building a neutral and professional platform for exchange and matchmaking, driving all parties to pursue collaborative development based on shared interests and transcending political differences. Adam emphasized that information sharing and open collaboration would be leveraged to mitigate market risks and strengthen overall industry resilience, and called on the industry to seize the opportunity of this forum to jointly explore solutions, transforming current challenges into momentum for driving integrated and robust development of the global metals industry. Speech by Platinum Sponsor Wang Guangxue, Member of the Executive Committee of China Securities Co., Ltd. and Chairman of China Securities Futures Co., Ltd. Wang stated that as a vital bridge connecting the capital market and the real economy, China Securities has always been committed to serving the high-quality development of the metals industry. Leveraging the comprehensive financial strengths of CITIC Group, the company has built a full-chain integrated service system covering securities, futures, investment, and research. The company has been deeply engaged in the commodities sector, continuously providing forward-looking research to anticipate market trends, utilizing futures instruments to build robust risk barriers, and empowering industrial upgrading through capital services. It will fully leverage CITIC Group's full-license resource advantages and the strategic value of Hong Kong as an international financial center to continuously strengthen its cross-border comprehensive financial services capabilities. The company aims to tailor integrated risk management and asset allocation solutions at home and abroad for enterprises across the metals industry chain, precisely helping enterprises hedge against price fluctuation risks, and enabling them to operate steadily and advance with high quality in complex market environments. Structural Shifts: Rethinking Commodity Benchmarks in an Era of Persistent Inflation and Rivalry Speaker: Tian Yaxiong, Co-Head of R&D Department, China Securities Futures Tian shared professional research findings and cutting-edge market insights on hot topics including the market outlook for global metals and the deep impact of geopolitics on commodity trends. SMM Industry Analysis: Market Outlook and Pre-seminar Sharing for Base Metals and New Energy Materials (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium, and Tin) & How SMM Empowers Your Commodity Trading & Analysis Speakers: Dr. Yanchen Wang, Managing Director of SMM Global UK Ltd.; Thomas Feng, Head of Industry Analysis at SMM Dr. Wang first analyzed the macroeconomic landscape. At the beginning of this year, the manufacturing PMIs of major economies performed quite well, actually exceeding 50%. Without the conflict, demand this year would have been quite strong. However, at the end of February, the US-Iran conflict broke out, and the International Monetary Fund subsequently revised down its global economic growth expectations. He pointed out that China's exports remain one of the three pillars that are still functioning well to date. Regarding automobile consumption, he noted that for the EV market, the positive factor for the auto industry also lies in exports. In Q1 this year, export performance was indeed very strong. If you look at EV exports alone, they actually grew nearly 160% YoY. Driven mainly by growth in global markets, he remains optimistic about the auto industry this year. In Europe, gasoline and diesel prices have risen significantly due to the US-Iran conflict, and EV demand is expected to benefit from this factor. He believes the power sector continues to maintain strong growth. Based on power grid and power generation investment data from the first two months, combined with State Grid Corporation of China's earlier announcement that fixed asset investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, this indicates that electricity demand will drive strong growth. State Grid Corporation of China will build more ultra-high voltage transmission projects, which will undoubtedly support aluminum demand and also copper demand. Aluminum: Wang noted that base metal prices experienced wild swings since the beginning of this year. He also discussed that China's aluminum smelters continued to raise operating rates due to favorable profitability; aluminum demand pulled back in Q1, and high prices drove inventory higher; approximately 950,000 mt of new aluminum smelting capacity in Indonesia may come online in 2026, with some investors watching Angola; and aluminum semis and wheel hub exports maintained growth in Q1. Copper: After copper prices experienced a pullback and adjustment in March, downstream procurement demand in China was rapidly released, providing strong support for copper prices to rebound. Copper prices rose sharply, with the market downplaying geopolitical risks. China's copper cathode demand was robust, and inventory continued to decline. China's copper scrap market was not truly facing a spot shortage issue. The outlook for copper cathode demand is positive. China remains dependent on copper concentrate imports. Spot copper concentrate TCs showed no signs of bottoming out. By-product revenue sustained smelter profits. He also analyzed the DRC sulphuric acid market conditions, the expected slowdown in global refined production growth, and how a refined market supply deficit should support higher copper prices. He also mentioned that the AI industry maintained strong development momentum, bringing new growth momentum to copper demand. Tin: He elaborated from the following perspectives: Myanmar tin production — slow recovery, upward trajectory, 2025-2027E; Indonesia tin ore RKAB quotas — expected to ease slightly in 2026; DRC — major mine production remained stable, but the M23 movement added uncertainty; global tin prices — supply determines the floor, macro factors drive fluctuations; the global tin market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with new mining capacity expected to be concentrated for release in 2028. Thomas Feng shared insights on nickel, cobalt, and lithium: emerging from the trough and entering a new cycle. ►New energy demand landscape: from EV popularization to energy storage deployment. First, he reviewed and provided an outlook on the global NEV market: NEV demand no longer maintains a one-sided high-growth trajectory, but instead exhibits characteristics of regional differentiation, structural divergence, and intensifying cyclical volatility; development paces in China, Europe, and the US have shown notable differences; performance trends of BEVs, PHEVs, and commercial vehicles have diverged; and the impact of inventory and price cycles on industry operations is increasing significantly. Second, in his review and outlook of the global energy storage market, he noted that the global energy storage market will remain concentrated in three key regions: China, the US, and Europe. Driven by 2030 climate goals, emerging markets such as the Middle East, Australia, and Southeast Asia are showing strong growth in demand for large-scale energy storage. Benefiting from cost advantages and improved safety performance, LFP battery market share is expected to continue climbing. ►Lithium: Reshaping the Supply-Demand Pattern in a New Cycle Global lithium carbonate market: shifting from overall surplus to structural tightness, with prices in a post-trough reassessment and recovery phase. Lithium hydroxide supply and demand maintained a tight balance: production on the supply side was driven by demand, the market share of ternary power batteries was squeezed, and room for growth was limited. The concentration of lithium resource supply declined, with marginal growth rates slowing down simultaneously. Significant demand growth drove the continued expansion of resource projects. ►Nickel: Navigating Policy Changes and Narrowing Oversupply Indonesia's nickel ore HPM adjustment: aimed at enhancing the economic value of non-nickel resources. The discussion covered scenario analysis of nickel ore prices following the implementation of the new policy, and the impact analysis of nickel ore benchmark price adjustments on MHP full costs. Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota: a tight balance is expected to set the tone for 2026. Global primary nickel is expected to remain in persistent oversupply. Regarding the logic behind refined nickel price trends, it was noted that policy and macro factors jointly amplified price fluctuations, while cost support elevated the long-term price floor. ►Cobalt: Shifting from Surplus to Shortage after the DRC Export Ban——Long-Term Uncertainty Remains Following the DRC policy announcement, cobalt product prices in China rose rapidly. However, high prices suppressed downstream demand, putting prices under pressure. Starting from H2 2025, the Chinese market continued destocking. Amid raw material shortages, enterprises began using MHP and recycled materials as production substitutes. MHP and recycling are expected to continue growing rapidly, effectively bridging the cobalt hydroxide gap. Cost pressure transmitted in both directions: LCO doping/ternary substitution restarted, and consumer cobalt demand is expected to decline by 10%. As persistently high cobalt prices suppress demand, if China secures 90% of the DRC quota, supplemented by MHP and recycling supply, inventory buildup could occur as early as 2026. Panel Discussion: Global Metals Market Outlook——Geopolitics Disruption, Macro Cycles and the Return of Commodity Volatility •Copper and Aluminum Price Rise, 2024-2026 •Precious Metals Storm: Silver Swung Wildly, Gold Hit Record Highs — Interest Rate Cycles, Safe-Haven Demand, and Industrial Logic •Precious Metals and Industrial Metals: Are Commodities Entering a New Cycle •Focus on Critical Minerals: Emerging Region Supply Rise and Policy Shifts, Green Transition Co-Shaping a New Narrative •Chinese Market: The 15th Five-Year Plan Moderator: Yanchen Wang, Managing Director, SMM Global UK Ltd. Panelists: Yahong Tian, Co-Head of R&D, CITIC Futures Henry Van, Head of Industrial Metals Analysis, Trafigura Sharon Ding, Head of China Basic Materials, UBS Justin William Hughes, Commodity Derivatives Distribution, Optiver Xie Shaobo, Head of China, Appian Mining Fund & independent non-executive Director, Zijin Gold International Panelists noted aluminum has great upside—its 10% price rise lags its 4%-5% supply contraction (vs. oil’s 60% price surge on 10% supply drop), with valuation recovery incomplete. They were more optimistic about copper demand, driven by real downstream demand rather than speculation; aluminum semis’ upside is underappreciated due to high oil prices. Long-term, copper and gold are key for mining investment, with scarce high-quality copper mines and solid gold fundamentals. They also discussed US tariffs, China’s metal demand resilience and overseas mining investment. Overseas mining success hinges on resource-to-reserve certainty; West Africa, Latin America, DRC and Zambia are new hotspots, while Australian/Canadian listed miners are undervalued. Enterprises must plan prudently based on risk tolerance. Geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Iran) may trigger energy crises, but current inflation control and China’s high metal consumption share weaken demand impact. Long-term, energy crises will boost electrification, expanding copper/aluminum demand. Investment depends on risk appetite and fundamental grasp. SMM Industry Analysis: Strategic Re-valuation of Minor Precious and Minor Metals in 2026 — The Case of Silver and Tungsten Silver: Market Supply-Demand Balance and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evolution and Shift in Industrial Demand, Particularly Driven by the PV Sector Tungsten: Strategic Status Upgrade - Supply Constraints and High-End Demand Driving the 2026 Price Rally Speaker: Juno Zhu, Senior Analyst of Minor and Precious Metals, SMM Juno shared insights on the strategic revaluation of tungsten and silver. Tungsten: Tungsten prices have surged over 500% since 2025; China holds over 50% of global tungsten reserves, contributes nearly 80% of global production, and possesses a complete industrial value chain; China's tungsten supply constraints in 2025: H1 mining quotas declined 6.45% YoY; global new project stagnation: limited capacity expansion in 2026, with ex-China mine development cycles of 3–5 years; domestic tungsten downstream applications: significant growth in cutting tools and PV tungsten wire in 2025; European market: persistent raw material shortages, with Rotterdam tungsten prices surging since February 2025; China's tungsten product exports: transitioning from primary products to deep-processed products; SMM analysis: the tungsten market supply-demand gap is expected to persist but narrow in 2026; prices are expected to consolidate at highs after overheating cools. Silver: Silver price fluctuations in 2026: an unexpected surge from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, where frenzied investment demand and capital liquidity completely overshadowed the impact of the industrial off-season. Shift in trade dynamics in Q1 2026: SGE-LBMA premiums reversal and a surge in imports. Demand spike in Q1 2026: the PV industry started with a recovery, and an investment boom generated a phased demand peak. PV market outlook: policy shifts in 2026 are expected to curb demand growth, with overall silver consumption remaining stable. Silver demand outlook for 2026: industrial fundamentals provide support, while investment surges serve as a tactical highlight. Silver supply outlook for 2026: mild annual growth and an expanding secondary supply share are expected to drive a tight balance in the market. Market outlook: short-term trends are expected to revert to industrial fundamentals, while the medium and long-term trajectory is expected to fluctuate at highs driven by safe-haven demand. Panel Discussion: Metals in a Fragmented World: Trading Opportunities in the Age of Instability (Physical Trading and Hedging) •Shifting Liquidity Landscape across LME, CME, and SHFE •Shipping Risks and Sanctioned Metals: Implications for LME Inventory Structure •How European CBAM is Reshaping Global Metals Trade Flows •Is the Metals Market Entering an "Era of Geopolitical Risk Premiums" •Internationalization of SHFE & GFEX: Opportunities and Challenges for Global Investors Moderator: Jean Tang, Commercial Director, SMM Panelist: Anant Jatia, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, Greenland Investment Management Bella Yu, General Manager of Marketing Department, Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. David Wilson, Director of Commodity Strategy, BNP Paribas Duncan Hobbs, Research Director, Concord Resources Nicholas Snowdon, Head of Metals and Mining Research, Mercuria Energy Trading SA Sabrina Qian, Director of Geared broking desk, IFCHOR GALBRAITHS Anant Jatia stated: CBAM represents a major policy shift in Europe's metals sector. It is not merely about raising trade costs, but will profoundly reshape global metal trade flows and pricing logic. CBAM officially took effect in January this year, initially covering categories such as steel and aluminum semis, with its core mechanism incorporating carbon emission intensity costs into Europe's metal pricing system. High-carbon-emission producers will need to bear additional carbon allowance costs, significantly weakening their export competitiveness to Europe, while green capacity powered by clean energy will gain a clear advantage in the European market and capture greater market share. Following the policy's implementation, the landed cost of metals in the European market will rise, sustaining a long-term regional premium similar to the aluminum premium structure in the US market. Compared with the market differentiation among LME-registered brands following CBAM's implementation, what deserves more attention are the entirely new market opportunities it creates. By sourcing low-carbon, high-quality materials, market participants can potentially capture green premiums, while the mechanism will also transform metal trading models and the global trade flow landscape. The panelists also discussed the changing liquidity landscape across LME, CME, and SHFE. They noted that liquidity in the commodity market is becoming increasingly fragmented, with copper and other products now tradable across multiple global futures exchanges. Price discovery is no longer concentrated in a single market, and the traditional pattern of one market leading gains and others following has reversed, with multi-exchange rotation driving price movements becoming the norm. Factors such as geopolitical policies and tariff adjustments have given rise to regional pricing divergence, with price movements in some markets increasingly driven by capital flows and sentiment. Policy and geopolitical events have also significantly affected the spread between futures and spot prices of metals, creating opportunities for cross-market arbitrage. Meanwhile, policies related to critical minerals supply security, regional supply shocks, and geopolitical disruptions have widened the dislocation between regional fundamentals and price signals. The metals market has entered a window of structural arbitrage opportunities, and this trend is expected to persist. Cross-market arbitrage continues to provide liquidity support to exchanges, a phenomenon broadly observed across both industrial and precious metals. In addition, the panelists engaged in in-depth discussions on the differences between exchange liquidity and industrial liquidity, as well as factors influencing metal price trends, including fundamentals, geopolitical developments, energy costs, and commodity transportation costs. Opening Remarks for Coffee Break Xu Tao, CEO of CSCI In his address, Xu Tao stated that Hong Kong serves as a vital hub in the global metals pricing and trading system, playing a key role in the aggregation of LME delivery resources and the internationalization of RMB-denominated commodities. Going forward, China Securities International will continue to leverage its role as a bridge for cross-border business, deepen collaboration with CSC Futures, and provide clients at home and abroad with efficient and professional comprehensive financial services in commodities, contributing to a higher level of opening-up of China's financial markets. Networking (Coffee Break) Acknowledgments The 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum was successfully held with special thanks to the Platinum Sponsor, China Securities International, for its strong support, as well as sincere gratitude to Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. for its significant contribution to the forum. Going forward, China Securities and China Securities International will continue to leverage the unique geographical and resource advantages of Hong Kong as an international financial center, deepen strategic cooperation with authoritative industry platforms such as SMM, and continuously improve the "onshore + offshore" integrated bulk commodity comprehensive service system, precisely empowering enterprises to seize market opportunities and hedge operational risks, contributing professional expertise to advancing the internationalization of China's bulk commodity market and enhancing the industry's global competitiveness. Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. (formerly Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center) has been engaged in new energy materials and critical metals supply chain services for over 20 years. Through its digital platform and offline service network, the company provides upstream and downstream clients with full-process online services including price negotiation, contract signing, contract execution, payment settlement, cargo delivery, processing, quality inspection, and after-sales services. With transparent pricing, 100% fulfillment guarantee, and strict quality control, it has established stable cooperation with over 30,000 industrial clients. In the field of critical strategic metal resources, Unilink has built a supply chain service system covering 14 critical metal varieties including indium, bismuth, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Spot delivery volumes of indium and bismuth each account for over 90% of China's consumption. For new energy materials, spot delivery volumes of nickel, cobalt, and lithium on Zhonglian Jin's platform account for 30%, 90%, and 20% of China's consumption respectively, while daily sulfur trading volume exceeds 80,000 mt. Unilink implements a service model of "payment upon delivery, cargo pick-up upon payment," effectively shortening delivery cycles, reducing enterprise operating costs, and helping upstream and downstream clients achieve stable and efficient material scheduling. Zhonglian Jin strictly adheres to national industrial policies and resource management requirements, consistently focusing on serving the real economy, fully ensuring the security and smooth operation of bulk commodity supply chains, and promoting efficient resource allocation. It has ranked among China's Top 500 Service Enterprises and China's Top 20 Growing Internet Enterprises for two consecutive years. With that, the 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum came to a successful conclusion! Thank you for your help and support for this forum~
May 14, 2026 13:22Global demand for new-type energy storage surged, driving sustained strong orders for energy storage battery cells and a tightening supply-demand pattern for battery cells. Amid the robust momentum of operating at nearly full capacity, top-tier battery enterprises and second-tier producers ramped up investment, as the industry shifted from earlier cautious wait-and-see approaches to proactive capacity expansion. Wang Pengcheng, co-founder and president of Hithium, which ranked second globally in energy storage battery cell shipments, recently stated that the company's orders had been booked through 2027. More precisely, "by the end of 2027, all orders have been locked in ahead of schedule." He also candidly pointed out a phenomenon within the industry: although the capacity utilization rate of top-tier players already exceeded 95%, the reality was that there was overcapacity in outdated capacity while advanced capacity was severely insufficient. He emphasized that the industry should be vigilant against low-level redundant construction at this stage. When discussing Hithium's own expansion considerations, Wang Pengcheng declared, "All capacity going forward must be advanced capacity only. We will not build redundant capacity, and we will not expand unless we are leading.
May 13, 2026 16:20JSW Steel delivered record production and sales in FY2024-25, but weaker steel realizations dragged down revenue and margins, creating a clear growth paradox: higher volumes but lower earnings quality. As India’s largest steelmaker, JSW’s next challenge is to turn its scale into more resilient earnings through higher VASP contribution, stronger raw material security, selective overseas improvement, technology partnerships, and decarbonization readiness.
May 7, 2026 14:50Spot lithium carbonate prices fluctuated upward this week, with the price center further rising. The futures market performed strongly, with the most-traded LC2609 contract price range rising from 173,400-184,800 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 182,500-189,500 yuan/mt, up about 5% WoW, with open interest increasing significantly and bulls actively entering the market. Market transactions remained sluggish, with the psychological price level gap between upstream and downstream further widening. On the upstream lithium chemical plant side, quotes stayed high, willingness to sell spot orders was low, and the sentiment to hold prices firm was evident. On the downstream material plants side, purchases were mainly just-in-time procurement, with limited acceptance of high prices, and psychological purchase price levels concentrated around 170,000-175,000 yuan/mt, with only a few enterprises with rigid restocking needs willing to accept prices around 180,000 yuan/mt. Overall, market inquiries and transactions were relatively sluggish, presenting a stalemate pattern of "upstream holding prices firm and holding back from selling, downstream waiting and watching." Supply side, bullish and bearish factors were intertwined, with short-term disruptions coexisting with medium-term expectations. Bullish factors: continued disruptions from Jiangxi mine license renewals; Middle East geopolitical fluctuations pushing up diesel import costs, with some Australian mines' Q1 quarterly reports confirming cost increases; political instability in Mali raising market concerns over West African ore supply; spodumene concentrates prices continuing to strengthen, reinforcing the cost-support logic for non-integrated lithium chemical plants. Bearish factors: Zimbabwe Huayou announced successful shipment of lithium sulfate, potentially easing some short-term supply anxiety; April domestic lithium carbonate production pace remained generally stable, with salt lake operations maintaining steady production ramp-up; entering May, although Zimbabwe lithium concentrates exports remained restricted, relevant enterprises' raw material inventory could still ensure normal production for the month, with total May production expected to edge up about 3% MoM. Demand side expectations were positive, but actual boost effects still needed verification. Looking ahead, spot lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern in the short term. Supply side, the actual execution progress of Zimbabwe export quotas and the timing of Jiangxi mine license renewal shutdowns remain key variables; demand side, focus should be on May new energy auto sales data realization and the pace of LFP plant capacity expansion boosting raw material demand. Against the backdrop of unresolved supply-side constraints, cost support, and demand expectations resonating, lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in Q2.
Apr 30, 2026 16:51