Starting from the panic low of $4,099 on March 23, the gold price has slowly but steadily worked its way upward over the past four weeks. Even though momentum is gradually fading and geopolitical tensions continue to act as a disruptive factor, the persistence of the recovery movement remains remarkable. Higher price targets in the range between $4,900 and $5,100 remain active and could be reached soon.

[Price Review] The US-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement continued to boost market sentiment. This week, precious metal prices rebounded amid the possibility of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement and news of Trump's tariff exemptions. However, as the weekend approached, uncertainties emerged in ceasefire negotiations, with short-term geopolitical tensions showing no substantive easing. Inflation concerns reinforced the US Fed's hawkish signals, limiting gains in precious metal prices. Short-term macro sentiment was generally warm, with capital flow momentum slightly recovering, but industrial demand had not recovered. Suppliers moved inventory and shipped to delivery warehouses, and the spot market supply appeared slightly in surplus. Gold/silver ratio side, as of April 15, the LBMA gold/silver ratio stood at 61x. During the short-term precious metals rebound, silver price movements were slightly stronger than gold prices. [Key Data] Bearish: US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY, hitting the highest level since 2024 IMF downgraded growth expectations — the International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 global economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% Bullish: US March Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 4% YoY, the highest since February 2023, but significantly below market expectations of 4.6% Data and macro news releases to watch next week include: April 17: US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, US April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US March industrial production MoM, and Eurozone CPI data. April 21: Confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman nominee Warsh Geopolitics side, the temporary ceasefire agreement will expire on April 22. Whether the ceasefire is extended or a permanent agreement is reached will have a significant impact on global market risk appetite. [Price Forecast] Although the short-term US-Iran ceasefire foundation remains fragile, the macro atmosphere next week is expected to be relatively bullish, and market traders still hold optimistic expectations regarding the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict. China fundamentals side, just-in-time procurement demand from silver nitrate, silver powder, and silver paste enterprises showed no signs of improvement, and the slight inventory buildup in the spot silver ingot market is unlikely to improve in the short term. After the SHFE April delivery concluded, although some banking institutions and traders actively purchased and built positions, downstream manufacturers showed low enthusiasm for purchasing. The rising trend in spot silver ingot social inventory is unlikely to reverse, and spot transaction expectations are expected to remain at parity or may even see slight discounts. Although silver prices may continue to rebound next week amid the macro atmosphere, the trend remains full of uncertainty. Before the US Fed sends a clear interest rate cut signal and the precious metals bull market resumes, silver prices will continue to consolidate in a range-bound pattern.

The silver price has already shown this year how quickly dynamics in the precious metals market can change.

Gold is doing the opposite of what it should. The metal is falling for a reason most investors did not see coming. Wall Street's biggest banks have not changed their outlook. Here is why that matters.

The gold price is currently causing nervousness once again. Since the start of the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, the precious metal has recorded a daily loss of 4% for the second time.

[SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review] This week (March 9–March 13), the most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 opened at 534 yuan/gram and closed at 541.6 yuan/gram, down 15.7 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, a decline of 2.82%. The weekly highest price was 577.85 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 522.6 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 opened at 408.75 yuan/gram and closed at 408.1 yuan/gram, down 13.8 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, down 3.27% WoW from last week’s settlement price. The weekly highest price was 430 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 397 yuan/gram. Futures trading: The most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 recorded total trading volume of 31,227 lots during the week, with total turnover of 17.368 billion yuan and open interest of 19,989 lots; open interest decreased by 1,894 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 recorded total trading volume of 11,077 lots during the week, with total turnover of 4.616 billion yuan and open interest of 7,612 lots; open interest increased by 11 lots WoW. At present, the US–Iran conflict remained dominated by political expectations, while the reality on the ground was still unresolved. On the political-expectations front, Trump frequently released marginal de-escalation signals to curb oil prices, saying the Iran issue was only a short-term military operation and expressing willingness to engage in dialogue with Iran; the TACO trade pulled oil prices back to around 90. On the reality front, Mojtaba, son of Khamenei, formally succeeded to power, and Iran entered the “Era of Avengers,” beginning to threaten the Strait of Hormuz; its foreign minister said the new leadership would refuse to negotiate with Trump. If the US–Iran conflict continues to escalate, it will push up oil prices and trigger concerns over imported inflation in the US, thereby delaying the Fed’s progress on interest rate cuts. On tariffs, after reciprocal tariff was overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration will seek a more solid legal basis to rebuild the tariff framework. The risk of re-inflation remained relatively high, and disputes over new tax rates and tax rebates lifted policy uncertainty to some extent. In the short term, Trump filled the tariff-rate vacuum through the 122 temporary tariff; in the medium and long-term, he may maintain a high-tariff framework via 232 and 301. In addition, the massive tax rebate pressure brought about after reciprocal tariff was ruled illegal will further increase the US fiscal burden, thereby reinforcing the logic of a weaker US dollar and providing support to precious metals overall. Supply side, NERSA announced it had formally approved Eskom’s electricity price adjustment plan for the next two years: electricity prices will be raised by 8.76% in April this year and raised again by 8.83% in April 2027. As South Africa’s PGM mining is highly dependent on electricity, rising electricity prices will continue to lift the cost center for platinum and palladium. The US Department of Commerce issued an announcement, making an affirmative preliminary anti-dumping determination on unwrought palladium imported from Russia, preliminarily determining the dumping margin for all Russian exporters/producers at 132.83%. In terms of valuation, watch changes in the US dollar index, which involve the relative strength of currencies such as the euro and the yen. Pay attention to details on the new administrator announced by the LME. Pay attention to the March 19 FOMC meeting, changes in economic data, and the impact of Wosh’s remarks on monetary policy expectations. The precious metals sector mainly benefited from the policy and political-environment tug-of-war during the US Fed’s midterm-election time window. From a medium- and long-term perspective, the foundation for a bull market in platinum and palladium remained intact. In the short term, be alert to the risk of a phased adjustment driven by a delay in expectations for an interest rate cut; pullbacks should be viewed as medium- and long-term opportunities to add long positions. Amid high fluctuations in platinum and palladium, pay attention to position sizing. As domestic and overseas markets are not continuous, the opening price of platinum and palladium often references the overseas night session; investors should monitor trading prices in international markets and be wary of opening gaps. Spot market, this week most traders holding cargo actively quoted prices. Some traders reported that supply was currently relatively ample while the market was relatively sluggish. Most downstream clients had sufficient inventory and mainly stayed on the sidelines, with only some downstream buyers making small, negotiated purchases to meet order demand. Along with continued cooling in investment demand, transactions were relatively difficult and price involution was severe. Overall, spot market trading this week was generally subdued.

Silver is once again at the center of global financial markets, with prices moving in the range of $80 to $90 per troy ounce. For many investors, this already sounds extreme. However, while the majority of investors focus primarily on price and charts, professional investors are looking at something entirely different: the structure of the market.

Geopolitical tensions, and concerns about fiscal policy and central banks, have driven the gold price to where it is today.

The current year has proven exceptional for gold by any metric.

Despite recent outflows, expert says decade-long gold surge still has legs.