[Strait Blockade Remains in Stalemate, LME Outperforms SHFE for Aluminum] Overall, the strait blockade continued. The supply gap outside China and the ongoing drawdown of LME inventory supported LME prices to hold up well, while China's aluminum ingot inventory remained at elevated levels. Attention should be paid to whether a turning point in domestic inventory can materialize smoothly.

China Steel Market: [Sheets & plates] HRC export prices today were quoted at $492-496/mt, up $2-3/mt WoW, while other sheets & plates were up $1-4/mt WoW. Recent inquiry activity for sheets & plates was moderate, and Middle Eastern Gulf countries also began requesting FOB prices. Semi-finished products side, some steel mills reported that due to delayed shipping schedules combined with rising prices, recent slab transaction performance was lackluster. [Steel Billet] Billet export FOB prices were quoted at $472-475/mt, with high-end prices at $478/mt. Shipments to the Middle East with dual-certification requirements were quoted at $490-495/mt. Prices rose relatively quickly recently, and inquiry activity and actual transaction levels fell short of those seen at the beginning of the month. [Rebar] Rebar export FOB prices were quoted at $480-485/mt, flat from yesterday. Some steel mills reported that foreign-standard rebar quotes were on the stronger side, with high-priced resources difficult to transact. International Steel Market: [India] HRC export offers to the EU increased to ~$705/t CFR, mainly due to higher freight costs. Logistics disruptions (Red Sea, Suez, Hormuz) forced rerouting via the Cape, extending transit times and reducing competitiveness, while no deals were concluded as buyers remained cautious. Market sentiment is weak to cautious, with stalled Middle East trade and pressure from high freight costs and unclear demand. [UAE] Emirates Steel, a UAE-based steel company, has maintained the list price of 12-32mm diameter rebar for May delivery in the domestic market at 2,720.87 UAE dirhams per ton (USD 741) ex-works, the same as in April. [EU] A steel mill in Germany has announced that its rebar price will increase by $60 per ton to $835 per ton; a steel mill in Italy has indicated that the increase may exceed $60 per ton, with the latest price expected to exceed $860 per ton. In terms of driving factors, steel mills generally face rising energy costs, while tightened EU import protection (including CBAM costs and new measures effective from July) has strengthened the pricing power of European domestic steel mills. Although there are still large inventories of imported products in some markets, which may suppress short-term orders, under the combined cost pressure and policy support, the significant price increase is expected to be accepted by the market by mid-May.

[Latest Data from the General Administration of Customs] In March 2026, China's copper-zinc alloy (brass) bar, rod, and billet export value was $6.2797 million, up 23.24% MoM and up 138.25% YoY. The cumulative export value from January to March 2026 reached $18.0847 million, up 164.78% YoY cumulatively. (HS code 74072111, 74072119, 74072190).

[Latest Data from the General Administration of Customs] In March 2026, China's exports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods totaled 740.09 mt in physical content, up 122.98% YoY and up 28.2% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to March 2026 reached 2,078.08 mt in physical content, up 158% YoY (HS codes 74072111, 74072119, 74072190).

[SMM Brass Billet News] The brass billet market will continue to face the cyclical challenge of "high costs, low demand, and weak expectations" in the short term. Raw material copper prices staying high have pushed up production costs, and end-use consumption has yet to recover significantly, leading to sluggish market trading. SMM expects the brass billet import market to continue operating at low levels in Q2 2026.

[SMM Brass Billet News Flash] Import value side, the import value in March was $26.0562 million, up 105.94% MoM and up 30.62% YoY. The cumulative import value from January to March 2026 was $56.3455 million, up 17.38% YoY cumulatively.

[SMM Brass Billet News Flash] In terms of import origins, South Korea remained China's largest source of brass billet imports, with March imports of 1,189.35 mt, up 186.6% MoM and up 1.15% YoY, accounting for 42.52%. Japan ranked second, with March imports of 713.4 mt, up 132.48% MoM and up 40% YoY, accounting for 25.51%.

According to the latest customs data, China's imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods totaled 2,796.93 mt in physical content in March 2026, up 3.37% YoY and up significantly 107.97% MoM.

[Geopolitical Negotiations Remain Unresolved; Aluminum Prices Continue LME Outperforms SHFE Pattern] Overall, the Middle East negotiation process continued to face setbacks. However, the supply gap outside China and the continued drawdown of LME inventory supported LME prices to hold up well. Meanwhile, China's aluminum ingot inventory remained at elevated levels, and attention should be paid to whether the inflection point of domestic inventory can materialize smoothly.

[SMM Steel] Pakistan’s National Tariff Commission (NTC) has extended anti-dumping duties on continuous casting steel billets from China at 24.04% following a second sunset review. The measure will remain effective for five years from June 22, 2025, covering semi-finished steel products under multiple HS codes. Originally imposed in 2017 and reviewed in 2022, the duty aims to protect domestic producers, while exemptions apply for export-oriented production and foreign-funded projects.