This week, the lead-acid battery market basically resumed normal trading. After logistics recovered, dealers gradually restocked as needed. Both the e-bike and automotive battery markets showed post-holiday restocking momentum, but lead prices struggled to rise, and selling prices in the battery wholesale market remained unchanged for the time being. In addition, on the producer side, lead-acid battery enterprises gradually resumed lead ingot procurement after the holiday. However, due to lead ingots stored before the holiday or long-term contract pre-sales, downstream enterprises had limited short-term replenishment purchases of spot orders, and the improvement in trading activity in the spot lead market was also limited.

SMM News on March 6: This week, secondary lead premiums showed clear regional divergence, with parity prevailing overall, and most suppliers refusing to ship at a discount; only some cargoes in South China and Central China were offered at a discount of 100-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In terms of profits, scrap battery prices stayed firm, making it difficult for smelters to reduce costs, and industry losses continued. As of March 6, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises was -330 yuan/mt, and -543 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized enterprises (by-product revenue in the model excluded tin and antimony). Looking into next week, SMM expected supply tightness in raw materials to persist, leading the secondary lead operating rate to maintain its downward trend; under loss pressure, suppliers were likely to narrow discounts or keep parity offers, while downstream battery producers still made just-in-time procurement on a wait-and-see basis, resulting in relatively light market transactions. 》Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include China’s February CPI y/y, the US February non-seasonally adjusted CPI y/y, the US January core PCE price index y/y, and the preliminary US March one-year inflation expectations; meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, with unchanged impacts on maritime shipping and energy supply, while a surge in oil prices has hit interest rate cut expectations, and US Treasury traders have increasingly expected that the US Fed will not cut interest rates this year. In addition, on March 6, SHFE officially announced the passage of the revision plan for lead futures contracts, with secondary lead substitutes at a discount of 150 yuan/mt to deliverable-grade material. LME lead, overseas geopolitical issues have mixed bullish and bearish impacts on the lead market: on the one hand, hindered transportation and rising energy prices such as natural gas have pushed up smelting cost, and lead-acid battery exports have also been constrained by transportation restrictions; on the other hand, there is the impact of damage to the economic environment. In addition, overseas lead inventory has remained elevated after surging by more than 50,000 mt during the Chinese New Year period, leaving lead prices under pressure. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,930-1,990/mt next week. SHFE lead, in March, both domestic lead ingot supply and demand increased, and with imported lead supplementing supply, the destocking speed of lead ingots has been slow, leaving insufficient momentum for lead prices to rise. The secondary lead segment is currently in a loss-making state, and some smelters have slowed the pace of resuming production, providing support for lead prices. In addition, next week is the week before delivery for the SHFE lead 2603 contract, and suppliers will transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouse; expectations of a cumulative increase in visible inventory may weigh on lead prices. Overall, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,600-17,000 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,500-16,700 yuan/mt. Demand side, the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises rose, and their lead ingot purchases will rise accordingly, with more expectations of purchasing as needed. Supply side, primary lead smelters’ production was steady to slightly higher, and market circulating supply was ample; however, considering the factor of shipping to delivery warehouse, this may ease suppliers’ pressure to make shipments, keeping spot discounts stable, while secondary refined lead smelters have resumed work at a slightly slower pace and, amid losses, secondary refined lead smelters will hold prices firm in shipments, with limited widening of discounts.

[Spot Discounts Widened During the Week; Watch Next Week’s Recovery]: This week, spot discounts in Shanghai stayed at low levels, with the weekly average price up 5 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, standard domestic brands were at a discount of 70 to 60 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, while the high-priced brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 0 to 30 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract..

Copper prices fluctuated downward this week. Early in the week, as the situation in the Middle East continued to escalate, expectations of a US-Iran conflict intensified. Risk-off sentiment rose, the US dollar index strengthened, and funds rotated back from risk assets. LME copper pulled back from around $13,400 to the $13,000 level, while SHFE copper also pulled back from above 103,000 yuan to around 101,000 yuan. Although the situation was briefly digested by the market and a short-lived pullback in the US dollar drove a technical rebound in copper prices, overall momentum remained limited. US ADP employment data came in better than expected; divisions within the US Fed over interest rate cuts persisted; and the White House’s nomination of Warsh as Fed Chairman also increased policy uncertainty. In terms of positioning, bulls reduced positions for several days, indicating continued exits by high-level funds. Overall, macro uncertainty and a stronger US dollar capped the rebound in copper prices, and prices remained in the doldrums in the short term. Fundamentals, as the market held expectations for higher sulphuric acid prices, the transaction center for copper concentrates was pushed further lower. Recent mine tender prices pointed to a midpoint of -$50/mt. Smelting pressure increased further. For copper cathode, post-holiday inventory buildup continued, and consumption remained sluggish with no sign of a destocking inflection point. LME, COMEX, and SHFE all showed a contango structure, leaving fewer trading opportunities. Looking ahead to next week, geopolitical tensions are expected to continue providing strong support to the US dollar, leaving copper prices facing significant resistance in the short term. Coupled with the current high-inventory fundamentals, an upside move will be difficult. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $12,800-13,200/mt, and SHFE copper between 98,000-101,000 yuan/mt. In the spot market, as delivery approaches, spot market trading logic will fluctuate with the price spread between futures contracts and funding costs, and is expected to gradually lift next week. Spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are expected to range from a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt.

This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China strengthened to 10,200-10,300 yuan/mt; stainless steel scrap off-cuts of the same grade in Foshan rose, with a price range of 9,900-10,200 yuan/mt. From the perspective of raw material-side production costs, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely with stainless steel scrap was about 14,127.63 yuan/mt, while the production cost using only high-grade NPI was 14,789.63 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices strengthened and moved higher, mainly supported by the recovery in restarts, catch-up demand, and cost advantages. Entering March, the market fully resumed operations, yard shipments accelerated, and downstream inquiries and transactions increased significantly, lifting trading activity and laying the groundwork for prices to rise. On the futures and raw material side, SS futures saw a pause in gains this week, stainless steel spot prices posted limited increases, the pace of high-grade NPI price hikes slowed, and heat in the raw material market cooled. However, stainless steel scrap had previously been affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, and prices failed to keep pace; this week’s catch-up rally became the key driver of the price strength. In terms of supporting factors, stainless steel mills’ March production schedules rose sharply, boosting stainless steel scrap procurement demand; coupled with expectations for the “Golden March and Silver April” peak season, bullish sentiment was strong. Meanwhile, stainless steel scrap’s economic advantages over high-grade NPI were evident, lifting substitution demand and further supporting prices. However, downstream end-use demand recovered slowly, and stainless steel finished product inventory remained high, suppressing upward movement in finished product prices and transmitting to the stainless steel scrap market, thereby limiting the increase. Overall, the market this week showed a pattern of “restart recovery, increased transactions, and a catch-up price rise.” In the short term, there was still upward momentum, but gains were limited; over the longer term, attention should be paid to the pace of end-use demand recovery.

[Downstream Operations Were Still Resuming, and Market Trading Was Better Than Last Week]: Spot premiums in Tianjin rose slightly this week, up 20 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, mainstream domestic brands were quoted at discounts of around 20-100 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, while high-priced brands were quoted at discounts of around 20-50 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract. Tianjin was quoted at a discount of around 10 yuan/mt against Shanghai, the Shanghai-Tianjin price spread narrowed, and contract rollover quotes were offered this week.

SMM, March 6: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated upward, while the price center fell sharply from the previous trading day. Downstream processing enterprises were bullish on the aluminum price outlook and proactively restocked, with relatively strong willingness to purchase; traders mainly focused on monetizing shipments and reducing open interest. Today’s market transactions were at the average price to 30 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.11, up 0.13 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.76, down 0.2 MoM. The direction of geopolitical tailwinds remained unclear, and aluminum prices stopped rising and pulled back in the short term. In the central China market, traders remained strongly bullish and tended to take the opportunity to purchase at lower prices, while suppliers were mainly on the sidelines with low willingness to sell. Circulating supply was relatively tight, driving premiums to continue rising. Quotes climbed from a premium of 20 yuan/mt over the central China price before the open to a premium of 50 yuan/mt over the central China price, while the final mainstream transaction prices were around a premium of 20–30 yuan/mt over the central China price. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.66, down 0.1 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.41, up 0.01 MoM. Inventory side, today’s aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 2,000 mt MoM, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Wuxi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingots continued to see seasonal inventory buildup; influenced by bullish sentiment, premiums were expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

[SMM Daily Brief Commentary on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, losses at coke producers have widened, dampening their production incentives. Coke supply is expected to tighten slightly, but coke producers are seeing inventory buildup, and supply remains loose for now. Demand side, the Two Sessions have already convened, and some steel mills have already carried out blast furnace maintenance; the daily average hot metal output has declined, weakening rigid demand for coke. Meanwhile, after the first round of coke price cuts, steel mill profits remain poor, and they still intend to push for lower prices. Overall, the coke market may be generally stable with slight fall and in the doldrums; after the first round of proposed cuts, expectations remain for a second round of price cuts.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overseas ADC12 Prices Surged to USD 3,200, with Import Losses Expanding Sharply] In the overnight session, the aluminum alloy 2604 contract in the night session moved downwards after a higher opening and fluctuated downward. After opening at 23,295 yuan/mt, it rose to 23,420 yuan/mt, then continued to pull back, dipping to a low of 23,000 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,170 yuan/mt in late trading, down 1.07% from the previous close. Open interest continued to decline, with bulls clearly reducing positions; trading volume edged up, and the price center moved lower.