This week, the lead-acid battery market basically resumed normal trading. After logistics recovered, dealers gradually restocked as needed. Both the e-bike and automotive battery markets showed post-holiday restocking momentum, but lead prices struggled to rise, and selling prices in the battery wholesale market remained unchanged for the time being. In addition, on the producer side, lead-acid battery enterprises gradually resumed lead ingot procurement after the holiday. However, due to lead ingots stored before the holiday or long-term contract pre-sales, downstream enterprises had limited short-term replenishment purchases of spot orders, and the improvement in trading activity in the spot lead market was also limited.

Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include China’s February CPI y/y, the US February non-seasonally adjusted CPI y/y, the US January core PCE price index y/y, and the preliminary US March one-year inflation expectations; meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, with unchanged impacts on maritime shipping and energy supply, while a surge in oil prices has hit interest rate cut expectations, and US Treasury traders have increasingly expected that the US Fed will not cut interest rates this year. In addition, on March 6, SHFE officially announced the passage of the revision plan for lead futures contracts, with secondary lead substitutes at a discount of 150 yuan/mt to deliverable-grade material. LME lead, overseas geopolitical issues have mixed bullish and bearish impacts on the lead market: on the one hand, hindered transportation and rising energy prices such as natural gas have pushed up smelting cost, and lead-acid battery exports have also been constrained by transportation restrictions; on the other hand, there is the impact of damage to the economic environment. In addition, overseas lead inventory has remained elevated after surging by more than 50,000 mt during the Chinese New Year period, leaving lead prices under pressure. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,930-1,990/mt next week. SHFE lead, in March, both domestic lead ingot supply and demand increased, and with imported lead supplementing supply, the destocking speed of lead ingots has been slow, leaving insufficient momentum for lead prices to rise. The secondary lead segment is currently in a loss-making state, and some smelters have slowed the pace of resuming production, providing support for lead prices. In addition, next week is the week before delivery for the SHFE lead 2603 contract, and suppliers will transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouse; expectations of a cumulative increase in visible inventory may weigh on lead prices. Overall, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,600-17,000 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,500-16,700 yuan/mt. Demand side, the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises rose, and their lead ingot purchases will rise accordingly, with more expectations of purchasing as needed. Supply side, primary lead smelters’ production was steady to slightly higher, and market circulating supply was ample; however, considering the factor of shipping to delivery warehouse, this may ease suppliers’ pressure to make shipments, keeping spot discounts stable, while secondary refined lead smelters have resumed work at a slightly slower pace and, amid losses, secondary refined lead smelters will hold prices firm in shipments, with limited widening of discounts.

SMM News on March 6: This week, secondary lead premiums showed clear regional divergence, with parity prevailing overall, and most suppliers refusing to ship at a discount; only some cargoes in South China and Central China were offered at a discount of 100-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In terms of profits, scrap battery prices stayed firm, making it difficult for smelters to reduce costs, and industry losses continued. As of March 6, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises was -330 yuan/mt, and -543 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized enterprises (by-product revenue in the model excluded tin and antimony). Looking into next week, SMM expected supply tightness in raw materials to persist, leading the secondary lead operating rate to maintain its downward trend; under loss pressure, suppliers were likely to narrow discounts or keep parity offers, while downstream battery producers still made just-in-time procurement on a wait-and-see basis, resulting in relatively light market transactions. 》Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

A blocked Strait of Hormuz would upend global methanol supplies, hammer conventional methanol markets, and elevate green methanol’s strategic value, pushing China to diversify imports and boost green methanol for supply security.

[Frequent Supply Disruptions; Imported TCs Continued to Decline]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly TC for SMM Zn50 domestic remained flat at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index fell by $8.37/dmt MoM to $15.38/dmt...

[SHFE/LME Price Ratio Rebounded and Hovered Around 7.4]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio rebounded and fluctuated around just below 7.4, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Overseas, continued destocking supported the upward shift in the center of LME zinc; subsequently, as geopolitical developments fueled inflation concerns, a stronger US dollar pressured the base metals sector, and LME zinc retreated after rapid rise, with its center moving lower.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, spot discounts for Shanghai spot copper are expected to continue a steady recovery. From the market structure perspective, the price spread between futures contracts for the next-month C contract remained around 300 yuan/mt, prompting suppliers to hold prices firm and withhold sales. Meanwhile, the downward shift in the center of copper prices effectively stimulated downstream purchase willingness, driving a notable rise in spot premiums. Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargo continued to arrive, and with social inventory at elevated levels, overall circulating supply in the market remained ample. Under the combined effects of suppliers holding prices firm and downstream buying the dip, the momentum for the recovery in spot discounts is expected to continue.

[French Lithium Company Launches Geothermal Well Testing at the Schwabwiller Site in Alsace] The first geothermal exploration well drilled by the French lithium company at the Schwabwiller site in the Grand Ried department of Alsace, France, has begun well testing. This phase will last 3–5 weeks and is intended to verify the resource’s potential for geothermal heating and lithium production. Drilling at the Schwabwiller site began in November 2025, with a target depth of approximately 2,400 meters. The project is expected to drill a pair of wells, with a bottom-hole spacing of about 1,000 meters. The drilling campaign is expected to take a total of seven months. If results are positive, the French lithium company’s project is expected to provide geothermal heating for enterprises, farms, and local communities in northern Alsace. In addition, extracting lithium from geothermal brine will produce lithium with a lower environmental footprint, with carbon dioxide emissions reduced by about 70% compared with lithium currently on the market. Source: https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/ [Li-FT Power Strategic Assessment of the Yellowknife Lithium Carbonate Conversion Plant Project] The global lithium chemicals supply chain is at a crossroads, with traditional production models facing unprecedented pressure from accelerating electrification demand. The market landscape is increasingly tilting toward integrated producers, which can capture value across the full chain—from raw ore mining to refining and producing battery-grade lithium chemicals. This shift reflects a broader strategic realignment across the industry: enterprises are enhancing operational resilience through vertical integration rather than relying on fragmented commodity supply chains. Li-FT Power’s recently announced Yellowknife lithium carbonate conversion plant project is a representative case of this strategic evolution. The proposed facility targets annual production of 30,000 mt LCE, positioning the company within North America’s emerging battery materials ecosystem. This capacity scale reflects an intentional mid-end positioning, balancing capital efficiency with meaningful market participation. Source: https://discoveryalert.com.au/ [Zimbabwe Clarifies Why It Hastily Banned Exports of Some of Its Most Critical Minerals] Recently, Zimbabwe’s Minister of Mines, Polit Kambamura, reiterated this rationale, stating that miners’ under-reporting of declared volumes constitutes a serious problem that cannot be ignored. He noted that the issue has become so widespread that the government was forced to bring forward the disciplinary timetable by one year. The government had originally planned to begin imposing an export ban on lithium concentrates next year, but due to rising production and newly issued export permits, it moved to launch the ban as quickly as possible. At a press conference after a Cabinet meeting in the country’s capital, Harare, Kambamura told reporters: “The ban will remain in effect until the conditions proposed by the government or new expectations are met.” Source: https://africa.businessinsider.com/ [Rock Tech and Siemens Plan to Build a Lithium Converter in Canada] The lithium converter that Rock Tech Lithium is developing in Guben, eastern Germany, is intended to serve as a blueprint for building a similar facility in Canada in cooperation with Siemens. The project will use Siemens’ digital twin technology to digitally replicate, optimize, and scale up the plant’s design and operating processes. The lithium converter that Rock Tech is currently building in Guben, Germany, is designed for an annual output of 24,000 mt of battery-grade lithium hydroxide. The company said this will become the largest facility of its kind in Europe. It is expected to start operations in 2027. The target capacity is equivalent to about 30 Gwh of battery capacity, sufficient to meet demand for about 500,000 EV units per year. Rock Tech also plans to build a similar facility in Red Rock, Ontario, Canada. Siemens AG’s technology will be deployed for the plant’s construction and operations. The two companies have signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding to establish a long-term, multi-phase strategic partnership focused on developing modern lithium converter capacity. Source: https://www.electrive.com/

This week, more players entered the solid-state battery industry, with various parties “riding” the hype: Sunstone Development and TONZE stated that their sulphide projects were still in the early R&D stage; QingTao’s Wuhai 2 billion yuan project released its EIA public notice, and a 3.5 GWh production line in Taizhou commenced operations; Suzuki acquired Kanadevia’s solid-state battery business; Yaoshi Lithium Battery completed a 200 million yuan Series A financing round.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Center of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Moved Higher; Only a Small Volume of Rigid-Demand Transactions Were Concluded in the Spot Market This Morning]