SMM News, March 13: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract fluctuated at highs after opening today. High aluminum prices suppressed downstream demand, and overall procurement demand remained weak, with market premiums continuing to soften. Market premiums kept declining from the opening. Today’s mainstream market quotations and transaction prices were concentrated between -20 yuan/mt and the average price. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.32, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.55, down 0.02 MoM.

Among them, the Gulf region was an important consumer market for China in the Middle East: China’s exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip to Saudi Arabia reached 42,500 mt, and aluminum foil 58,000 mt; exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip to the UAE reached 103,500 mt, and aluminum foil 93,800 mt; the other four countries (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman) accounted for combined exports of about 22,000 mt of aluminum plate/sheet and strip and about 11,000 mt of aluminum foil.

SMM March 13: This week, China’s domestic tungsten market exhibited high-level oscillations with intensified supply-demand competition. Multiple mines put products up for auction during the week, but transactions were bleak.As of March 13, tungsten prices remained largely stable, yet market sentiment became extremely divided.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: The SHFE/LME Price Ratio Continued to Weaken, and Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from overseas prices, and the backwardation structure was expected to persist in the short term. China was in a phase of high inventory + weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum was clearly weaker than that outside China. Amid diverging domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio was expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices were expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Alloy Prices Continued to Hover at Highs, While Market Demand Was Significantly Suppressed] This week, secondary aluminum alloy prices continued to rise, but the pace of demand follow-up was relatively slow. In the short term, raw material costs remained at high levels, providing strong support for ADC12 prices; however, if prices continue to rise, the suppressive effect of high prices on demand will become increasingly evident. Meanwhile, as operating rates gradually recover, there are also expectations of a mild increase on the supply side. ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term. Going forward, it is recommended to focus on the pace of downstream order release, the pressure on the market from the supply recovery process, and the impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Geopolitical Disruptions Dominate, Aluminum Prices Remain Elevated]

Philippines Market: Tight Supply and Surging Freight Rates Supported Ore Prices to Fluctuate at Highs Philippine nickel ore prices rose sharply this week. In terms of prices, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotes were $64-68/wmt for Ni 1.3% grade, $71-75/wmt for Ni 1.4% grade, and $78-82/wmt for Ni 1.5% grade, up $6 WoW. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $65.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $72.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Supply side, although the Philippines was transitioning into the dry season, mining hubs such as Surigao and Homonhon continued to see heavy rainfall due to a low-pressure area (LPA) east of Mindanao. Although Metro Manila and most parts of Luzon saw hot and sunny weather, the probability of rainfall exceeding 50 mm in Surigao and Caraga remained “very high.” Strong thunderstorms and scattered precipitation were expected to further intensify during March 9 to 13. Affected by the trough of the low-pressure area and the easterlies, persistent rainfall may continue to disrupt open-pit mining and vessel loading operations in southern regions. Market supply remained scarce. Driven by both supply tightness caused by cuts in Indonesia’s RKAB quotas and expected supply gaps, mainstream prices for Philippine nickel ore have surged recently. As of Friday, March 13, nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 5.23 million mt, down 500,000 mt WoW. Current total port inventory was equivalent to about 41,100 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, China’s NPI prices rose this week, with spot transaction prices up about 1,089.9 yuan per nickel unit. As smelters had sufficient stockpiling earlier and showed limited acceptance of recently high-priced nickel ore, most were currently taking a wait-and-see stance. In terms of ocean freight rates, affected by a sharp jump in oil prices, nickel ore freight rates climbed, with the ocean freight rate from the Philippines to Lianyungang reaching $15/mt or above. Looking ahead, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs. Indonesia Market: Under Weather Disruptions and RKAB Policy Clarification, Tight Supply Continued Indonesia's local nickel ore prices rose somewhat this week. Indonesia’s nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) for the first half of March was set at $17,104/dmt, down 3.21% MoM. According to SMM Indonesia nickel ore premium data, average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively. Among them, the port arrivals under domestic trade price for 1.6% grade was $65.2-74.2/wmt. The simultaneous strengthening in premiums this month reflected both the release of smelters’ restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota cuts, while the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up to $24-26/wmt. From the supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 13, Indonesia’s key nickel ore producing areas of Morowali, Konawe, and Halmahera were affected this week by strong thunderstorms and extremely high humidity of up to 94%. Weather continued to fluctuate, causing soil to become highly saturated and seriously hindering mine drying and transport operations. Morowali and Konawe will face a heavy rainfall system over the weekend with precipitation probability as high as 80%, while Halmahera, under high-humidity conditions, is expected to see rainfall intensity rebound again next Friday, with overall logistics capacity remaining constrained. At present, RKAB approvals for most small- and medium-sized mines remained pending. As existing quotas could no longer be used for next month’s production and sales, rising supply uncertainty was pushing nickel ore prices higher. Demand side, as some Indonesian smelters faced uncertainty over nickel ore resources and found it difficult to secure high-grade saprolite ore, nickel ore prices remained firm. To secure raw material supply, some smelters even raised trading bonuses. Overall, although the impact of the current MOMS system failure on mines had largely faded, overall nickel ore supply remained tight. Although spot supply of limonite ore was relatively sufficient, some related production lines were currently running at low load due to a tailings dam landslide accident at some MHP projects in an Indonesian industrial park, leading to temporary weakness in overall demand. However, considering concerns among some Indonesian smelters over RKAB approval uncertainty, raw material stockpiling demand from newly commissioned projects, and continued growth in demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices are expected to closely track saprolite ore and remain high. On the policy side, in response to recent market rumors that “production quotas (RKAB) will be uniformly supplemented by an additional 25%-30%,” Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), clarified on March 3, 2026, that RKAB supplements would be based on individual assessments of enterprise production capacity and compliance, rather than a uniform proportional increase, and indicated that the approval process would start in H2 2026. Officials emphasized that this was a routine regulatory process for resource optimization, rather than a passive countermeasure to the previous output cap policy. Looking ahead, affected by the relatively slow progress of RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices are expected to remain more likely to rise than fall in April.

SMM News, March 12: The SHFE aluminum 03 contract fluctuated upward at the open today. High aluminum prices suppressed downstream demand, and overall procurement demand remained weak, while market premiums continued to soften. Market premiums kept declining from the opening. Today, mainstream transaction prices in the market were concentrated between a discount of 20 yuan/mt and the average price. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.32, up 0.05 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.57, down 0.09 MoM.

With aluminum prices rising for several consecutive days, traders and downstream processing enterprises in the central China market showed low buying sentiment, while end-user clients were also less willing to pick up goods. Downstream plants faced inventory overhangs, with costs and operating rates constrained, maintaining only small-volume restocking for rigid demand or suspending restocking altogether. Meanwhile, suppliers showed a strong willingness to sell and weak willingness to hold prices firm. As a result, actual mainstream transaction prices in the central China market were mainly around discounts of 10-20 yuan to the central China price. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.67, up 0.02 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.32, down 0.02 MoM.

[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Aluminum Prices Strengthened This Week, Rising Costs Drove Up ADC12 Prices