SMM, July 16: This week, transaction sentiment in China's aluminum fluoride market softened somewhat, while aluminum fluoride prices remained stable. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,950-11,400 yuan/mt; cryolite prices held steady, with SMM quoting 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt. Raw material side: China's 97% fluorite wet powder market consolidated on a strong note this week, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,100-3,450 yuan/mt, while regional price spreads persisted. Supply side, affected by safety incidents, nationwide mine safety inspections intensified markedly, and most mines in core production areas like Zhejiang and Fujian have entered shutdown self-inspection and rectification stages, dragging down the industry's overall operating rate and tightening spot cargo availability. Although production resumptions at some northern mines and increased imports from Mongolia provided partial supplement, supply remained tight overall amid widespread sentiment of holding back from selling and holding prices firm among ore sellers. Demand side, still in the traditional off-season, fluorine chemical enterprises kept operating rates reduced, hydrofluoric acid operating rates stayed low, and downstream demand in refrigerants and fluoropolymers was sluggish, with procurement mostly need-based, capping price upside. As the support from tightening spot supply gradually emerged, market sentiment improved, and transaction prices edged up. However, with no fundamental improvement in off-season demand, the sustainability and upside room of this rebound still face pressure. China's aluminum hydroxide market drifted lower this week, with SMM weighted average price at 1,690 yuan/mt, edging down 0.41% WoW. The sulphuric acid market consolidated at highs. Overall, raw material price trends diverged, and comprehensive production costs for aluminum fluoride remained high. Supply side, trapped in a negative cycle of high costs, deep losses, and low operating rates, rising raw material prices exacerbated cost-side losses, widening the loss margin, prompting more maintenance shutdowns and flexible production adjustments, further reducing overall operating rates. Some enterprises adopted a contraction strategy, prioritizing long-term contract deliveries with virtually no new production schedules, limiting effective supply growth. Demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity stayed high, providing a rigid demand floor for aluminum fluoride, but aluminum smelters remained cautious in procurement, mainly restocking on a need-to basis and pushing for lower prices, with no incremental purchase demand released. Commentary: This week, upstream raw materials for aluminum fluoride diverged—fluorite edged up, aluminum hydroxide weakened, and sulphuric acid consolidated at highs. Industry-wide production costs stayed high, making it difficult for producers to restore profitability, and production stockpiling sentiment was weak. Currently, the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream is intense, with no clear directional driver, and transactions mostly involve sporadic need-based restocking. Short-term aluminum fluoride prices are expected to hold in a stalemate, with limited room for movement. Close attention should be paid to raw material cost dynamics and marginal adjustments in downstream aluminum enterprises' procurement pace.

China's sulphuric acid market remains stagnant at high levels, with intensifying regional divergence [SMM Sulphuric Acid Weekly Review]

SMM July 9 News: This week, domestic aluminum fluoride enterprises saw moderate trading atmosphere, and aluminum fluoride prices remained stable. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride price closed at 10,950-11,400 yuan/mt; cryolite prices held steady, with SMM cryolite quoted at 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt. Raw material side: This week, China’s 97% wet fluorite powder market was broadly stable, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt, while regional price spreads persisted. On the supply side, national mine safety inspections intensified—regulatory oversight tightened notably following safety incidents, leading many mines in key production areas like Zhejiang and Fujian to halt production for rectification and self-checks. Overall operating rates declined, and spot supply tightened. Miners showed a strong willingness to hold back from selling and hold prices firm, offsetting the increased supply from production resumptions in the north and arrivals from Mongolian imports. On the demand side, overall weakness prevailed—large fluorochemical plants reduced operating loads, hydrofluoric acid operating rates moved lower, and downstream demand for refrigerants and fluoropolymers contracted. Procurement enthusiasm for fluorite was insufficient, limiting upward price momentum. Currently, tightening supply and weak demand are offsetting each other, and fluorspar prices will likely stay rangebound in the near term. This week, China’s aluminum hydroxide market drifted lower, with the SMM aluminum hydroxide weighted average price at 1,697 yuan/mt, down 1.22% WoW. The sulphuric acid market stood at high levels with narrow fluctuations. Looking at overall raw material performance, raw material price trends diverged, but aluminum fluoride’s comprehensive production costs remained high. On the supply side, the sector is mired in a negative cycle of high costs, deep losses, and low operating rates. Rising raw material prices exacerbated losses for enterprises, widening loss coverage. Industry equipment maintenance and flexible production increased, and overall operating rates continued to decline. It is understood that some enterprises have adopted contractionary strategies, prioritizing delivery of long-term contracts with virtually no new production scheduling, limiting effective incremental supply in the market. On the demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity remained high, providing a rigid demand floor for aluminum fluoride. However, aluminum smelters remained cautious in procurement, mainly making just-in-time restocking purchases and pushing for lower prices while waiting and seeing, with no release of incremental procurement demand. Commentary: This week, the aluminum fluoride raw material market diverged slightly—fluorite prices were stable, aluminum hydroxide drifted lower, and sulphuric acid prices corrected at high levels. The industry’s comprehensive costs stayed high, making it difficult for enterprises to restore operating profits and enthusiasm for production. Currently, the market lacks a trending driver, with a stalemate in the upstream-downstream tug-of-war. Transactions were mainly just-in-time procurement. In the near term, aluminum fluoride prices are expected to remain stable, with limited room for wild swings. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic changes on the raw material cost side, as well as marginal adjustments in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.

SMM, July 2 – This week, the aluminum fluoride tender price for benchmark downstream enterprises was finalised, and aluminum fluoride prices edged down. As of now, SMM’s aluminum fluoride price closed at 10,950-11,400 yuan/mt; the cryolite price was generally stable with slight rise, with SMM’s cryolite quotation at 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt. Raw material side, this week, the domestic 97% fluorite wet powder market was overall stable, with mainstream delivered price at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt and regional price differences still existing. Supply side, the nationwide special safety inspections for mine production continued to intensify, and earlier safety accidents triggered a comprehensive upgrade of regulatory supervision, significantly tightening safety management standards across the industry. Many key mines in major fluorite producing areas such as Zhejiang and Fujian temporarily suspended production for rectification and conducted safety self-inspections, causing the mine operating rate in the region to pull back significantly and spot supply to contract substantially. Under the high-pressure regulatory environment, domestic miners showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, keeping spot circulation tight, which effectively offset supply increases from the resumption of operations in northern producing areas and the continuous arrival of Mongolian import cargoes at ports. The demand side continued to weaken overall, capping upside room for the fluorite market. Top-tier domestic fluorochemical enterprises simultaneously reduced operating loads, with the operating load of the downstream hydrofluoric acid industry continuing to decline, and demand in end-user segments such as refrigerants and fluoropolymers contracting in sync, directly dragging down downstream procurement demand for fluorite. Overall, the fluorite market was in a two-way game pattern of contracting supply and weak demand, with bullish and bearish factors offsetting each other, and a high probability of maintaining a sideways consolidation pattern in the short term. This week, the domestic aluminum hydroxide market held up well in a narrow range, with SMM aluminum hydroxide weighted average price at 1,718 yuan/mt, up 1.18% WoW. The sulphuric acid market consolidated at highs in a narrow range. Viewed from the raw material side, divergent trends in raw material prices lifted the overall production cost of aluminum fluoride. The supply side was mired in a negative cycle of high costs, deep losses, and sluggish operating rates. Rising raw material prices worsened enterprise losses, expanding the loss-making scope. Plant maintenance and flexible production adjustments increased, and the overall operating rate continued to slide. It is understood that some enterprises adopted contractionary operating strategies, prioritising deliveries under long-term contracts with essentially no new production schedules, so market effective supply increment was limited. On the demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity remained high, providing rigid demand support for aluminum fluoride, but aluminum smelters were cautious in procurement, mainly restocking based on rigid demand while pushing for lower prices and waiting on the sidelines, with no release of incremental procurement demand. Commentary: The aluminum fluoride tender price for benchmark aluminum enterprises in July was officially finalised, down 330 yuan/mt MoM, and the transaction center of the market moved down accordingly. Cost side, fluorite prices stabilized at highs, aluminum hydroxide edged up slightly, and sulphuric acid stayed high, continuously supporting the production cost of aluminum fluoride. The industry remained in a pattern of high costs, low profits, and low operating rates. In the short term, high operating rates in downstream aluminum will still provide rigid demand support, but procurement will remain predominantly need-based restocking, and the market lacks new demand drivers. Currently, the market price has largely completed the pass-through of the tender price decline. Against the backdrop of continuous cost-side support and rigid demand cushioning, aluminum fluoride prices are expected to mainly stay stable in the short term. Going forward, focus needs to be on raw material price changes and downstream procurement pace adjustments.

At end-June, trading in the aluminum fluoride market was sluggish, with the industry waiting for new long-term contract tender prices to be settled. In the short term, high raw material prices provide solid cost support for aluminum fluoride, but bearish constraints from weak downstream fluorine chemicals and the decline in long-term hydrofluoric acid contracts are also in play. Amid the tug-of-war, aluminum fluoride prices in July have little room for significant rise or fall, and the market will continue to consolidate at highs within a range.

In the short term, high raw material prices provide solid cost support for aluminum fluoride, but bearish constraints from weak downstream fluorine chemicals and the decline in long-term hydrofluoric acid contracts are also in play. Amid the tug-of-war, aluminum fluoride prices in July have little room for significant rise or fall, and the market will continue to consolidate at highs within a range.

[SMM Aluminum Express] Recently, Shandong Zhenbo Chemical Co., Ltd. issued the second public notice of environmental impact assessment for its 90,000 mt anhydrous aluminum fluoride and high-end fluorinated materials co-production project. The project will be built in two phases. Phase I includes construction of a 60,000 mt/year anhydrous hydrogen fluoride production unit and a 90,000 mt/year anhydrous aluminum fluoride production unit, along with supporting public and auxiliary facilities such as raw material warehouses, tank farms, and wastewater treatment stations; Phase II includes construction of a 20,000 mt/year electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid production unit. The project will add approximately 500 units/sets of equipment, including fluidized beds, reactor furnaces, and high-temperature fans.

[SMM Aluminum Brief] This week, the aluminum fluoride market lacked clear trend drivers. High raw material costs continued to underpin market prices, and the industry operated with high costs, low profits, and low operating rates. In the short term, raw material prices dominated the market, downstream demand growth was insufficient, and the market continued the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream. Next month, cost support for aluminum fluoride will be firm, but due to sluggish terminal procurement and slight downward adjustments in upstream hydrofluoric acid, room for price fluctuations will be limited.

SMM, June 25: This week, aluminum fluoride enterprises focused on delivering orders. Approaching month-end, the market awaited new price guidance. Trading sentiment was sluggish, and prices remained stable. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 11,280-11,700 yuan/mt; cryolite prices held steady, with SMM quoting 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt. Raw material side: China’s 97% wet-process fluorite market was generally stable this week, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt and regional price differences persisting. On the supply side, high-grade resources remained tight due to safety and environmental protection inspections and production restrictions at small mines. This was compounded by a slowdown in imports from Mongolia and limited spot circulation, keeping inventories low and strengthening miners' willingness to hold prices firm. Demand side showed clear divergence. Traditional refrigerants were in the off-season, with losses at hydrofluoric acid firms suppressing purchases, which remained predominantly need-based and under long-term contracts. However, demand for lithium battery electrolytes and electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid was stable, providing support for high-quality fluorite. Overall, the supply tightness is unlikely to ease in the short term, and incremental imports are limited, with prices most likely holding up well. Nonetheless, downstream appetite to chase higher prices was insufficient, capping any gains. China’s aluminum hydroxide market edged up within a narrow range this week; the SMM weighted average aluminum hydroxide price was 1,698 yuan/mt, a slight increase of 0.89% WoW. Upstream cost support kept spot quotations firm, while downstream purchases were only as needed on a need-to basis, limiting overall transaction volume growth. The sulphuric acid market moved sideways at high levels, with price changes difficult in either direction. Low upstream sulphur spot inventory further consolidated the cost floor; combined with acid producers cutting production due to losses and clustered maintenance shutdowns across regions, supply in certain areas became relatively tight. However, the phosphate fertilizer sector entering its off-season and subdued purchase willingness capped sharp price increases for acid, while steady demand from the LFP new energy sector and fine chemicals provided bottom support. Synthesizing raw material-side performance this week, the fluorite market remained stable, while aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid rose, with divergent raw material price trends pushing up the comprehensive production cost of aluminum fluoride. The supply side continued operating under a pattern of persistently rigid high costs, sustained profit pressure, and low operating rates. Synchronized strength in sulphuric acid and aluminum hydroxide this week drove up overall production costs, pushing the industry into widespread losses. Incidents of enterprise maintenance shutdowns and flexible production cuts increased, with the industry operating rate holding at a low level of around 40%, limiting the incremental supply of effective spot cargo. On the demand side, the operating aluminum capacity downstream remained high and stable, providing a rigid support floor for aluminum fluoride demand. However, aluminum smelters only purchased as needed for rigid demand restocking, while simultaneously pushing for lower prices and standing by, with no release of additional incremental procurement. Summary: There was no significant directional catalyst in the aluminum fluoride market this week. The firm cost side continued to support prices, and the industry remained in a state of high costs, low profits, and low operating rates. In the short term, upstream raw material prices remain the core factor influencing the market, with limited downstream demand growth, and the market is likely to continue the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream. Next month, aluminum fluoride prices are expected to have strong downside support and some upside elasticity. However, constrained by the procurement pace of end-users, the room for price increases will still hinge on raw material costs and procurement changes at aluminum enterprises.

SMM, June 18: This week, trading sentiment weakened somewhat for domestic aluminum fluoride enterprises, with prices running steady. As of now, SMM’s aluminum fluoride reference price is 11,280-11,700 yuan/mt; cryolite prices also held steady, with SMM’s reference price at 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt. Raw material side, the 97% fluorite wet powder market was largely stable, with mainstream delivery-to-factory prices at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt, and notable price spreads by region. Supply side, mine operating rates in the north continued to recover, and Mongolian imports gradually arrived at ports, resulting in a looser supply-demand pattern; however, a coal mine accident in Shanxi triggered expectations of stricter mine safety and environmental oversight, which may cause periodic disruptions to some mines’ production going forward, leaving a wait-and-see sentiment on the supply side. Demand side remained subdued—downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises, constrained by insufficient operating rates at refrigerant and fluoropolymer terminals, mainly made just-in-time procurement, with limited large-order follow-through. Consequently, fluorite prices are likely to stay weak in the near term. Meanwhile, the aluminum hydroxide market firmed slightly, with SMM’s weighted average price at 1,683 yuan/mt, up 1.2% WoW; the sulphuric acid market hovered at highs, as sulphur cost support and production cuts for maintenance tightened supply in some regions, but cautious demand during the phosphate fertiliser off-season capped upside room, while LFP and fine chemicals provided just-in-time demand support. Raw material side, both aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid strengthened, further lifting overall production costs, yet costs could not be effectively passed downstream, putting the industry as a whole under notable pressure. Supply side, a pattern of ‘rigidly high costs—persistent profit pressure—low operating rates’ persisted, with the industry operating rate holding around 40%, limiting effective incremental supply. Demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity remained high and stable, providing rigid support, but aluminum smelters focused on just-in-time restocking and pushing for lower prices, adopting a wait-and-see stance without releasing additional demand for the time being. On balance, the aluminum fluoride market currently lacks directional drivers, caught in a tug-of-war stalemate between upstream and downstream, with transactions limited to just-in-time procurement, and prices expected to largely stay steady in the near term, leaving limited room for wild swings. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material cost-side dynamics and marginal changes in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.