[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overseas ADC12 Prices Surged to USD 3,200, with Import Losses Expanding Sharply] In the overnight session, the aluminum alloy 2604 contract in the night session moved downwards after a higher opening and fluctuated downward. After opening at 23,295 yuan/mt, it rose to 23,420 yuan/mt, then continued to pull back, dipping to a low of 23,000 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,170 yuan/mt in late trading, down 1.07% from the previous close. Open interest continued to decline, with bulls clearly reducing positions; trading volume edged up, and the price center moved lower.

[SMM Analysis]Macro Factors Drove, and Supply and Demand Gradually Recovered,ADC12 Prices Were Expected to Rise in March

This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China strengthened to 10,200-10,300 yuan/mt; stainless steel scrap off-cuts of the same grade in Foshan rose, with a price range of 9,900-10,200 yuan/mt. From the perspective of raw material-side production costs, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely with stainless steel scrap was about 14,127.63 yuan/mt, while the production cost using only high-grade NPI was 14,789.63 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices strengthened and moved higher, mainly supported by the recovery in restarts, catch-up demand, and cost advantages. Entering March, the market fully resumed operations, yard shipments accelerated, and downstream inquiries and transactions increased significantly, lifting trading activity and laying the groundwork for prices to rise. On the futures and raw material side, SS futures saw a pause in gains this week, stainless steel spot prices posted limited increases, the pace of high-grade NPI price hikes slowed, and heat in the raw material market cooled. However, stainless steel scrap had previously been affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, and prices failed to keep pace; this week’s catch-up rally became the key driver of the price strength. In terms of supporting factors, stainless steel mills’ March production schedules rose sharply, boosting stainless steel scrap procurement demand; coupled with expectations for the “Golden March and Silver April” peak season, bullish sentiment was strong. Meanwhile, stainless steel scrap’s economic advantages over high-grade NPI were evident, lifting substitution demand and further supporting prices. However, downstream end-use demand recovered slowly, and stainless steel finished product inventory remained high, suppressing upward movement in finished product prices and transmitting to the stainless steel scrap market, thereby limiting the increase. Overall, the market this week showed a pattern of “restart recovery, increased transactions, and a catch-up price rise.” In the short term, there was still upward momentum, but gains were limited; over the longer term, attention should be paid to the pace of end-use demand recovery.

[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Geopolitical Risks and Cost Drivers Combined: Weekly Increase in ADC12 Prices Reached 1,000 Yuan

SMM, March 6: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated upward, while the price center fell sharply from the previous trading day. Downstream processing enterprises were bullish on the aluminum price outlook and proactively restocked, with relatively strong willingness to purchase; traders mainly focused on monetizing shipments and reducing open interest. Today’s market transactions were at the average price to 30 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.11, up 0.13 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.76, down 0.2 MoM. The direction of geopolitical tailwinds remained unclear, and aluminum prices stopped rising and pulled back in the short term. In the central China market, traders remained strongly bullish and tended to take the opportunity to purchase at lower prices, while suppliers were mainly on the sidelines with low willingness to sell. Circulating supply was relatively tight, driving premiums to continue rising. Quotes climbed from a premium of 20 yuan/mt over the central China price before the open to a premium of 50 yuan/mt over the central China price, while the final mainstream transaction prices were around a premium of 20–30 yuan/mt over the central China price. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.66, down 0.1 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.41, up 0.01 MoM. Inventory side, today’s aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 2,000 mt MoM, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Wuxi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingots continued to see seasonal inventory buildup; influenced by bullish sentiment, premiums were expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

This week, ferrous metals held up well within a narrow range. Over the weekend, turmoil in the Middle East and the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict triggered wild swings in the international energy market, sending energy and precious metals sharply higher, while ferrous metals—except coking coal and coke—mostly retreated after rapid rise following the open; mid-week, although there were bullish expectations around the Two Sessions, no new news emerged, the steel market remained relatively stable, and the pattern of raw materials outperforming finished steel products continued; in the latter half of the week, the Two Sessions’ macro conclusions met expectations, but had already been priced in by futures earlier, and high-level fluctuations in international oil prices continued to support raw materials, in turn pushing ferrous metals to edge higher on a steady footing. In the spot market, in the second week after the holiday, the market gradually resumed work and resumed production, but with insufficient momentum from futures, overall willingness to purchase was not high, and transactions were mainly concluded at low prices......

SMM News on March 6: This week, secondary lead premiums showed clear regional divergence, with parity prevailing overall, and most suppliers refusing to ship at a discount; only some cargoes in South China and Central China were offered at a discount of 100-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In terms of profits, scrap battery prices stayed firm, making it difficult for smelters to reduce costs, and industry losses continued. As of March 6, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises was -330 yuan/mt, and -543 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized enterprises (by-product revenue in the model excluded tin and antimony). Looking into next week, SMM expected supply tightness in raw materials to persist, leading the secondary lead operating rate to maintain its downward trend; under loss pressure, suppliers were likely to narrow discounts or keep parity offers, while downstream battery producers still made just-in-time procurement on a wait-and-see basis, resulting in relatively light market transactions. 》Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Middle East Geopolitical Conflict Drove a Sharp Surge in Aluminum Prices; In the Short Term, Aluminum Prices Are Expected to Hold Up Well]

[Geopolitical Tensions Disrupted the Market, With SHFE and LME Closing Lower Over the Week] At the beginning of the week, continued overseas destocking supported a higher center for LME zinc; subsequently, as geopolitical tensions fueled inflation concerns, a stronger US dollar pressured the base metals sector, and LME zinc retreated after rapid rise, with its center moving lower......

In February 2026, the operating rate of secondary copper rod was 7.98%, above expectations of 7.46%, down 9.7 percentage points MoM and down 23.72 percentage points YoY. In February 2026, China’s secondary copper rod market, jointly driven by the Chinese New Year holiday and policy uncertainty, went through a full cyclical evolution of “pre-holiday volatility and positioning...