Overseas Alumina Transaction: On March 3, 2026, an overseas transaction of 30,000 mt of alumina was concluded at a transaction price of $312/mt FOB Australia, with April or June shipment, with the shipment schedule and port to be selected by the seller.

Alumina Transaction: On March 4, 2026, one overseas alumina transaction was concluded, with a trading volume of either 30,000 mt of Australian alumina or 50,000 mt of Indonesian alumina. The transaction price was $304/mt FOB Western Australia, or $302/mt FOB Eastern Australia, and $311/mt FOB Indonesia. The origin and quantity were at the seller’s option, with April shipment.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Guinea Bauxite & Alumina Exports in January 2026. Ministry of Mines and Geology reports: Total bauxite 20.26 million tons; alumina 46,764 tons. Bauxite Highlights (top contributors): 1. SMB: 6.57 Mt (32 vessels) – leading exporter 2. Chalco: 2.64 Mt (14 vessels) 3. CBG: 1.64 Mt (28 vessels) 4. Zhicheng Guinee Mining/GBT: 0.94 Mt (5 vessels) 5. CDM China: 0.94 Mt (5 vessels) Other key volumes: 6. Cobad: 0.82 Mt 7. AMC: 0.79 Mt 8. BAM: 0.63 Mt 9. KBM: 0.58 Mt Alumina: 1. Friguia: 46,764 tons (2 vessels) – sole reported exporter

SMM, March 5: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated upward, with the price center higher than the previous trading day. Affected by the US-Iran conflict, aluminum prices continued to rise. Impacted by high aluminum prices today, buying sentiment declined while selling sentiment increased. The spot-futures price spread was currently relatively strong, and some traders were still purchasing for hedging. Bullish sentiment was strong in the market, and sellers held prices firm. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were from the average price to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 2.98, up 0.3 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.96, down 0.23 MoM. Geopolitical conflict affected Aluminum Bahrain’s shipments, intensifying sentiment of financial constraints. Traders in the central China market remained bullish. Although downstream processing enterprises were constrained by weaker-than-expected orders and inventories not yet fully depleted, resulting in relatively weak purchasing sentiment, traders’ purchases boosted overall market transactions, and premiums remained relatively firm. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from central China price +10 yuan to central China price -30 yuan, with mainstream transaction prices concentrated at central China price -10 yuan to -20 yuan. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.77, up 0.07 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.4, up 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased 13,000 mt MoM today. Affected by seasonality, all three regions saw inventory buildup. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingots continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] The Federal Government of Nigeria and the African Finance Corporation (AFC) have signed a landmark Memorandum of Understanding to co-fund three strategic mining projects. The flagship initiative is a USD 1.3 billion alumina refinery designed to process approximately 1 million tons of bauxite per year using a modern Bayer-process flowsheet. It will feature an on-site gas-fired cogeneration plant to produce steam and electricity for efficient operations. The refinery is projected to run for about 20 years at 95% utilization, yielding a cumulative total of around 19 million tons of alumina over its lifespan.

On the morning of February 26, the high-alumina clinker project implemented by Damei Company officially commenced trial production. This project is a major industry following the industrial restructuring of the Bosai Group's Nanchuan division, and a powerful engine for Nanchuan District's development of a high-end refractory materials industrial park. The project covers 218 acres, with a total investment of 1.3 billion yuan, and will construct a high-alumina clinker production line with an annual output of 400,000 tons, along with supporting facilities. The project is planned in one phase but implemented in stages, with the first phase, a 200,000-ton-per-year production line, scheduled for completion in the second half of 2025.

SMM, March 4: Aluminum ingot: Today, Foshan A00 spot aluminum was affected by the geopolitical situation in Iran, with heightened fluctuations in market sentiment. Discounts edged down slightly before recovering. Mainstream quotations against the front-month contract were -170 yuan/mt, with some cargoes quoted at -180 yuan/mt, down 10-20 yuan/mt WoW from last Friday. Intraday transactions were concentrated at -20~-10 yuan/mt. A major buyer in Foshan swept up cargoes at -10 yuan/mt. Lower-priced cargoes were relatively abundant, and a small number of quotations rebounded to near parity. Downstream purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand, with deliveries to plants at -10 yuan/mt, and overall purchasing sentiment remained sluggish. Aluminum billet: Today, the average processing fee for SMM 6063 aluminum billet (Guangdong) was 180 yuan/mt for Φ90/100, and 130 yuan/mt for Φ120 and above, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday. Affected by expectations of tightening overseas supply, the base price rose significantly, and aluminum billet processing fees were somewhat under pressure. Meanwhile, downstream post-holiday resumption progressed slowly, and purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand, with buyers pushing for lower prices. If aluminum futures prices continued to rise, suppliers would continue to raise processing fees, while market trading sentiment was relatively average.

The alumina futures 2605 contract showed a retreat after rapid rise overnight, opening at 2,746 yuan/mt, reaching an intraday high of 2,772 yuan/mt before pulling back, hitting a low of 2,743 yuan/mt, and finally closing at 2,751 yuan/mt. From a technical perspective, the short-term moving average system exerted pressure on the futures price, with the MA5 and MA10 converging near 2,743.2 and 2,745.1 respectively, indicating intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts; the MA30 above was at 2,811.7, imposing strong resistance on the rebound. Meanwhile, market volume significantly shrank, with trading volume dropping to 174,000 lots and open interest also decreasing to 366,000 lots, suggesting that sentiment became cautious near key points.

28th of Feburary: According to SMM statistics, in February 2026, overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina decreased by 12.41% month-on-month and 3.66% year-on-year; the average operating rate of overseas alumina enterprises edged down by 0.01 percentage point month-on-month to 76.17%, a decrease of 2.67 percentage points year-on-year. Overall, overseas alumina production was relatively stable during the month. By region: Asia: On February 6, Lam Dong Province in Vietnam approved the expansion plans for two alumina projects under Vinacomin, with a total investment of VND 59.855 trillion (approximately USD 2.3 billion). One is to add a production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons at the Nhan Co alumina plant in Dak Nong Province, which is expected to be commissioned in 2030 with an operating period of 30 years. The other is to expand the Tan Rai alumina plant in Lam Dong Province, planning to build a second production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons. Construction is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2030 and operation to begin in the fourth quarter. According to SMM research, Vietnam's local bauxite resources are relatively abundant, providing stable raw material support for the commissioning of these projects. It is expected that they will have significant cost advantages, potentially enhancing the export competitiveness of alumina in the long term. Europe: In order to reduce the negative environmental impact of road transportation, Alteo alumina plant has partnered with HES Fos, planning to relocate most of its logistics operations from the port of Marseille to the port of Fos-sur-Mer. Under the agreement, HES Fos will be responsible for unloading ships, storing hydrated alumina, and subsequently transporting it to Alteo's plant in Gardanne. In the future, HES Fos will renovate an existing clinker warehouse specifically for storing hydrated alumina to ensure the smooth operation of the supply chain. The construction of this dedicated facility has entered the execution phase and is expected to be put into operation in 2029, providing reliable support for the logistics and storage of alumina in the long term. Australia: On February 13, Australian company Alpha HPA announced the groundbreaking of the second phase of its planned world's largest single-site high-purity alumina refinery. The project will utilize the company's proprietary solvent extraction and refining technology to commercially produce high-purity alumina products with a purity of 99.99%, providing key raw materials for industries such as global lithium batteries, LED lights, and semiconductor manufacturing. Middle East: On February 28, the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated, with an attack on Tehran, the capital of Iran. Currently, no shutdowns of alumina plants in the region have been reported. According to SMM statistics, Iran has only one alumina plant, which is equipped with bauxite production capacity. If geopolitical conflicts further intensify, the plant's production could be affected, and the possibility of output cuts or shutdowns cannot be ruled out. Data show that Iran's annual alumina output is about 250,000 tons, and bauxite output is about 650,000 tons. Its alumina production cannot meet the domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum production, and it has long relied on imports, with India being the main source. Alumina imports from India account for 40% to 80% of Iran's total imports. Outlook for March 2026: Overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina is expected to increase by 12.65% month-on-month and decrease slightly by 2.38% year-on-year; the operating rate is expected to be 77.45%, up 0.01 percentage point month-on-month and down 1.61 percentage points year-on-year. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the international political situation on alumina production.

SMM February 28 news: According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in February 2026 fell 0.9% MoM and dropped 5.7% YoY. During the period, alumina raw material costs and auxiliary material costs declined, and the total cost pulled back slightly. The average SMM A00 spot price (January 26–February 25) in February was largely stable, and aluminum profit margins expanded to 7,707 yuan/mt. If the industry calculates based on the monthly average price, 100% of domestic operating aluminum capacity was profitable in February. Cost breakdown: Alumina raw material side : SMM data showed the average SMM alumina index in February was 2,621 yuan/mt (January 26–February 25), down 1.7% MoM. Production cuts at alumina plants during the month shifted inventory to destocking, but after the holiday, some aluminum smelters proactively reduced inventory, resulting in actual demand being lower than theoretical demand. Prices saw only a slight rebound by month-end, and the monthly average price dropped MoM. Entering March, alumina prices face both bullish and bearish factors. On one hand, operating alumina capacity is expected to decline MoM; on the other hand, aluminum smelters’ proactive destocking is expected to reduce demand. Overall, alumina raw material prices are projected to change by a relatively small margin. Auxiliary material market side : Both prebaked anode and fluoride salt prices pulled back in February. In March, prebaked anode and aluminum fluoride prices are expected to maintain a slight downward trend, and auxiliary material costs are projected to decrease. Electricity price side : Electricity prices were generally stable in February, with slight declines in some regions, leading to a small drop in the national average aluminum power cost. Entering March, electricity prices are expected to remain largely stable, and aluminum power costs are projected to hold steady. Overall, SMM expects the weighted average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in March 2026 to be largely stable, averaging around 15,750–16,150 yuan/mt.