This week, against the backdrop of fluctuating upward copper prices, the secondary copper industry chain showed a complex situation in which extremely tight upstream raw material supply coexisted with persistent negative margins for downstream finished products. In the secondary copper rod market, SMM data showed that the operating rate fell further to 5.45% this week, down 0.38 percentage points MoM and 25.43 percentage points YoY

The final March S&P Global services PMI released by the US came in at 49.8, a reading that was not only below the preliminary 51.1, but also marked the first contraction since January 2023. During this period, growth in new orders fell to its lowest point in nearly two years, while export trade conditions deteriorated further compared with February. Meanwhile, the final composite PMI was confirmed at 50.3, significantly below the preliminary 51.4 and the lowest level since September 2023.

The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a سلسلة of chain reactions: global shipping costs have surged sharply, and war risk insurance premiums for vessels have also risen rapidly. Moreover, shipping companies must also weigh freight rate factors. According to industry insiders, current freight rates have already skyrocketed to 11-12 times their original level.

According to information from the Ministry of Commerce, in the first three months of this year, the consumer goods trade-in program delivered remarkable results, with sales exceeding 433.17 billion yuan and benefiting a total of 60.933 million person-times. Specifically, automobile trade-ins contributed 228.69 billion yuan in sales, while sales of new purchases under the home appliance trade-in program, as well as digital and smart products, totaled 204.48 billion yuan.

[SMM Analysis]Weak Supply-Demand Pattern; Secondary Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Come Under Pressure and Pull Back in April

Overall, cost support remained strong, supply tightened while demand stayed stable. As tender prices became clear, aluminum fluoride prices were generally raised by around 800 yuan/mt in line with the guidance. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic changes in raw material costs and adjustments in downstream procurement pace.