DCE iron ore futures fell before rising, stabilizing in the afternoon session. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 784 yuan/mt, up 0.26% from the previous session. Meanwhile, spot prices fell 2–5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders showed average enthusiasm in quoting prices, and steel mills’ purchases were mainly for rigid demand. Overall, the spot market saw scant transactions. According to SMM survey tracking, blast furnace maintenance intensity continued to increase this week, with the impacted volume up 102,100 mt WoW to 1.9892 million mt. Iron ore demand was currently at a relatively low level. As blast furnaces that underwent earlier maintenance resumed production in a concentrated manner, hot metal production was expected to rebound next week, and iron ore demand was likely to improve. On the macro front, the war in the Middle East remained in a stalemate. Surging crude oil prices pushed up the ocean freight rate and the cost of imported iron ore, providing cost support for ore prices. However, due to limited actual transactions, upward momentum showed signs of weakening. Therefore, in the short term, ore prices might mainly see sideways movement within a range.

Platinum prices surged sharply intraday. The most-traded PT2606 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened at 560 yuan/gram in the morning session, then held up well, with the peak gain exceeding 6%. It eventually closed the morning session at 565.1 yuan/gram, up 4.74%. In the spot market, spot platinum was quoted at a discount of 9–12 yuan/gram against PT2606, or at a discount of 1–4 yuan/gram against the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Sell 1. Spot discounts widened compared with the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, according to SMM, the notable intraday rise in platinum prices led downstream enterprises to mostly stay on the sidelines and temporarily suspend purchases. Some traders holding cargo said the bid-ask spread was wide, making deals difficult to conclude, and spot market trading turned weaker than yesterday.

BC copper, the most-traded 2604 contract, opened at 88,740 yuan/mt, fluctuated rangebound early in the session and bottomed at 88,620 yuan/mt. The center of copper prices then gradually moved higher, and after the daytime open it continued to fluctuate upward, testing 90,460 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 90,110 yuan/mt, up 1.90%. Open interest fell to 5,829 lots, down 172 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume rose to 4,634 lots, indicating bears reduced positions. On the macro front, Trump claimed the Iran war was basically over and mentioned considering control of the Strait of Hormuz. Market concerns over geopolitical conflicts eased, driving international oil prices to retreat from highs; the US dollar index was under pressure, which was bullish for copper prices. Fundamentals, supply side saw sustained increases in availability, with ample replenishment from both domestic and imported sources; demand side, affected by rising copper prices, downstream purchasing sentiment was slightly restrained, and the pace of release in rigid demand slowed somewhat. SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 101,520 yuan/mt. Based on BC copper 2604 at 90,110 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 101,824 yuan/mt, and the price spread between SHFE copper 2604 and BC copper was -304. The price spread remained in backwardation and widened markedly versus the previous day.

SMM March 10: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2603 moved lower, with the price center dropping sharply from the previous trading day. Today, purchasing sentiment was not significantly driven by aluminum prices; buying strength remained weak, and buying interest was low. Today, mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at discounts of 10 yuan/mt to premiums of 20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.19, down 0.03 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.53, up 0.04 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum fell sharply in early trading, and purchasing sentiment was not significantly driven by aluminum prices; buying strength remained weak, and buying interest was low. Today, mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at discounts of 130 yuan/mt to discounts of 120 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 03 contract. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.58, down 0.12 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 MoM. Inventory side, today aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased 13,000 mt MoM, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Gongyi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingots continued seasonal inventory buildup; affected by bullish sentiment, premiums were expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

[SMM Chrome Daily Commentary: Quotes Rose Steadily, Strong Support at the Bottom] News on March 10, 2026: Both ferrochrome and chrome ore quotes rose slightly……

SMM News, March 10: Dealers in Hunan reported that end-use consumption in the e-bike lead-acid battery market was average. After retailers restocked following the holiday, battery sales pulled back somewhat. Current battery inventory is maintained at around half a month, and the wholesale price of the main 48V20Ah model is 400 yuan/set. Manufacturers in Jiangxi reported that demand in the electric lead-acid battery market improved in March. In addition, dealers restocked as usual after the holiday, and finished product orders rebounded significantly compared with February. At present, the operating rate of factory production lines is around 80, with raw material lead mainly procured through long-term contracts. Manufacturers in Zhejiang reported that replacement demand in the electric lead-acid battery market improved relatively, with dealers making purchases based on demand. The current factory operating rate has recovered to above 80. In addition, lead prices lacked upward momentum, and spot supply in circulation was ample, so recent procurement has basically been on a buy-as-needed basis.

As of March 9, SMM recorded total social inventory of copper cathode in major regions of China at 578,900 mt, up 1,700 mt from last week and up 70,400 mt from February 24, reaching a historical high. Over the same period, spot premiums for SMM #1 copper cathode gradually recovered from premium -260 yuan/mt on February 27 to parity on March 10. Overall, this upswing in spot premiums was mainly driven by the approach of delivery, under which the contango price spread between nearby and next-month contracts stayed around 300 yuan/mt; suppliers held prices firm and withheld sales, while about half of the material was converted into warrants and locked in, jointly tightening circulating supply. Observing the inventory accumulation pace, from the week of March 2 to March 9, inventories in three key regions increased by 14,400 tons, a growth of 2.65%. This marks a significant slowdown compared to the average weekly increase of approximately 45,000 tons during the period from February 5 to February 26. The deceleration in inventory buildup provided room for improvement in premiums. Current inventory accumulation primarily stems from two factors: First, the continued arrival of imported copper. According to SMM research, a substantial volume of imported copper continues to arrive recently, and it is expected that arrivals will not see a significant decline in March. The steady inflow of imported materials provides a continuous supply supplement to the domestic market and is a crucial support for maintaining high total inventory levels. The actual situation of imported arrivals in April remains to be confirmed, requiring close attention to customs data at month-end and changes in port clearance pace. Second, some cargoes are being delivered into bonded/warehouse warrant stocks. According to the electrolytic copper spot purchasing and selling sentiment indices for the Shanghai region recorded by SMM, the purchasing sentiment index rose from 2.08 on February 24 to 2.78 on March 10, while the selling sentiment index increased from 2.09 to 2.90 over the same period. Some downstream players have limited acceptance of current copper prices, maintaining a procurement strategy focused on immediate needs, resulting in selling sentiment slightly outpacing purchasing sentiment. Based on SMM's communications with enterprises: Upstream Producer 1: Recent consumption is relatively good, with daily sales around 2,000 tons. Upstream Producer 2: Currently produced electrolytic copper is primarily for export. Domestic inventories are low, so there's no rush to sell. Unwilling to sell when discounts are excessive. Trader 1: Quotations in the Changzhou market are higher than in Shanghai, mainly because locally available circulating cargoes are mostly warrants. Under the current spread structure, holders have high flexibility in selling – they can choose to sell or hold. Trader 2: The market is not short of supply; there are still a large number of warrants in warehouses awaiting digestion. However, due to the delivery mechanism, the incentive to sell depends on the premium level. Only when the premium exceeds the cost of capital will there be a strong willingness to liquidate. Downstream User 1: Recent orders are relatively robust. When copper prices fell on March 9, we already replenished inventories at the low point. Current raw material inventory can sustain operations until March 15. There are no immediate plans for further procurement; subsequent needs will primarily be met through long-term contract drawdowns. Downstream User 2: The recent spot premium has been quite firm, mainly due to the spread between months. Without such a high monthly spread, the premium would definitely not reach this level. In summary, this round of recovery in spot premiums is driven by multiple factors: First, the approach of delivery and the widening monthly spread strengthened holders' willingness to support prices. With delivery approaching, the Contango spread between months remains around 300 yuan/ton. Holders are underpinning prices, reluctant to sell, and strongly inclined to deliver stocks into warrants. Second, the inventory structure further amplified the tightness of available circulating supply. Taking Jiangsu as an example, out of 118,000 tons of social inventory, 94,000 tons were futures warrants. This portion is locked in delivery warehouses, making it difficult to form effective supply in the short term, leading to a phase of relative tightness in spot market circulating cargoes. According to SMM, some downstream companies in Jiangsu struggled to source materials in the market and opted to procure using the SMM Flat Copper Price average as a benchmark with minor adjustments. Third, the comprehensive resumption of work by downstream enterprises released procurement demand. After the Lantern Festival, downstream processing enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai entered a full resumption phase. Surveys indicate that companies in the battery materials sector maintain high operating rates. Copper foil processors reported that downstream battery manufacturers sustain high operating rates, with March production schedules already showing characteristics of the peak season. Copper tube companies, supported by peak season stocking from the air conditioning industry, have operating rates exceeding pre-holiday levels. Although the recovery pace in the wire & cable and copper rod sectors is relatively slow, overall procurement demand has significantly improved compared to the first week after the holiday. Fourth, the decline in copper prices activated downstream restocking intentions. Recently, Shanghai copper futures prices retreated somewhat, stimulating downstream enterprises to purchase at dips. Previously suppressed by high copper prices, downstream players mostly maintained a cautious just-in-time procurement strategy, resulting in generally low raw material inventory levels. After the price pullback, some companies took the opportunity to replenish stocks, boosting spot transaction activity.

[SMM Hot Topic] Estimated “Cliff-Like” Drop in China’s Steel Exports—A Ramadan Pattern or a War Shock? As mentioned above, [Persian Gulf Shutdown? The Impact of the U.S.-Iran Conflict on Global Steel Trade] amid the US–Iran conflict, global steel trade was shaken and reshaped. Another topic that has recently been widely discussed in the market is: what impact will this war have on China’s total export volume? Before going into detail, it is important to remind everyone that the current focus has largely remained on geopolitical conflict, while often overlooking that this period coincides with Ramadan, a seasonal trough. Therefore, to quantify the war’s actual impact more accurately, SMM conducted corresponding “dehydration” adjustments based on ferrous panoramic shipping data. Most Direct Impact: A Deep Shortfall on the Shipping Side Data Source:SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping According to the table above, in the absence of war, during Ramadan 2025, China’s average weekly shipments to Gulf countries were about 327,000 mt, while the average weekly shipments in the month after Ramadan ended were 450,400 mt. Therefore, keeping average weekly shipments at around 300,000 mt during Ramadan is considered a “normal contraction” level. By further comparing the same-period data for 2026 and 2025, we can precisely calculate the quantified impact caused by the war. As of the latest date, in the first 20 days of Ramadan, China exported and shipped only 5,000 mt, with a weekly average of only 1,750 mt. Estimation logic: If there were no war, based on a neutral assessment using the 2025 Ramadan benchmark, total shipments in the first 20 days should have been about 930,000 mt; therefore, the war resulted in shipment losses of about 925,000 mt. Therefore, we can conclude that the more than 99% plunge on the shipping side was most likely caused by the war (route blockades, shipowners’ risk aversion), and the Ramadan factor is almost negligible in the face of such a massive decline. Delayed Effects on the Arrival Side Data Source: SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping In addition to the impact on the shipping side, SMM ’s ferrous panoramic shipping data also showed that after operations were suspended at multiple ports, a combination of factors—such as vessels being unable to berth and unload—led to a decline in the total volume of steel arriving at ports. As of the latest date, average weekly arrivals were about 220,200 mt, down by roughly 82,000 mt/week from 302,200 mt over the same period last year. Estimation logic: assuming no war impact and using a neutral assessment based on the 2025 Ramadan benchmark, cumulative arrivals in the first 20 days should have been about 863,400 mt, implying a cumulative shortfall of about 234,000 mt. Cause breakdown: it is expected that the decline on the arrivals side was not as pronounced as that on the shipments side, because among these 12 arriving vessels, most carried orders that had already been dispatched before the full outbreak of the war or in the early stage of the situation (Jan 25–Feb 25). Therefore, this 234,000 mt gap was mainly due to war-driven route detours (delays) and partial port shutdowns. Data Source: SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping In summary, based on the data, we can conclude that Ramadan was merely the “backdrop,” while the war was the “main cause.” If the impact were only from Ramadan, we should still have had about 300,000 mt of steel shipped to the Gulf each week. The reality, however, is that since Feb 18, our average weekly shipments have plunged to less than 2,000 mt. This means that, within the currently observed gap, shipment losses of more than 900,000 mt were entirely caused by war-related order stagnation or shipping lane disruptions. The 27% decline currently seen on the arrivals side is only the beginning; the real “vacuum period” will fully emerge in late March, during the latter part of Ramadan. At present, a phased contraction in China’s total steel exports to the Middle East has become a foregone conclusion. Does this mean the strong momentum of China’s full-year exports will come to a halt here? According to SMM steel export take-order data, last week, the total orders taken by 31 exporters were about 765,000 mt, up 20.76% MoM. Among them, export orders for long products were about 437,000 mt, up 56.07% MoM; export orders for sheets & plates were about 328,000 mt, down 7.21% MoM. Against the backdrop of rising export prices, this growth did not stem from a broad-based global economic recovery, but from forced shifts in trade flows driven by geopolitical conflicts. On the one hand, instability in Iran diverted Southeast Asian orders to China, driving a boom in steel billet exports; on the other hand, conflict in the Middle East pushed up shipping costs, and the surge in fuel prices directly caused physical disruptions along the trade chain. Even if there is overseas demand, the sharp rise in freight rates also weakened the pricing advantage of Chinese steel products. SMM Steel Export Orders Taken - 31 Companies (10kt) Data Source:SMM Weekly Steel Export Report Therefore, although the reduction in exports to the Middle East has already been confirmed by the data, assessing its impact on China’s total exports for the full year still needs to be based on a “global rebalancing” perspective: is the “gap” created after demand in Gulf countries is constrained being converted into “incremental volume” in other markets? What is the actual absorption capacity of these emerging incremental markets? Can they offset the monthly shipping loss of 900,000 mt from the Middle East? Please continue to follow SMM Steel Industry Research; we will regularly update global shipping developments… Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. 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As of March 10, the operating rate of 50 electric furnace steel mills nationwide mainly producing construction materials was 35.38%, up 24.62% WoW from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 29.34%, up 22.46% WoW; daily average production of construction materials was 65,300 mt, up 50,000 mt WoW.

SMM News on March 10: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,710 yuan/mt. In early trading, the price edged down slightly before fluctuating higher and then pulling back again. During the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuate rangebound within 16,670-16,690 yuan/mt. Affected by weak downstream consumption recovery and persistently sluggish spot transactions at smelters, lead prices rebounded slightly in the afternoon before coming under pressure. Near the close, SHFE lead prices settled at the day’s low of 16,650 yuan/mt. A bearish candlestick without a lower shadow was recorded, down 90 yuan/mt, or 0.54%. After the Lantern Festival, domestic smelters accelerated the pace of resuming operations, but downstream consumption sentiment remained weak. Spot shipments stayed at low levels, and inventories at some enterprises remained persistently high. SMM expects that lead prices will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information and market communication, and generated relying on SMM’s internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.