[Frequent Supply Disruptions; Imported TCs Continued to Decline]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly TC for SMM Zn50 domestic remained flat at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index fell by $8.37/dmt MoM to $15.38/dmt...

Entering March, as the bullish sentiment in precious metal prices weakened, some lead smelters became less willing to obtain silver-bearing lead concentrates raw materials by paying lower TCs. Although lead concentrate TCs have yet to see a substantive rebound, smelters generally stated that it remained difficult for mainstream lead concentrate TC quotations to rise in March, but the phenomenon of transactions involving scrambling for ore at extremely low prices has disappeared. As the absolute level of silver prices can still enable smelters to obtain relatively substantial profits, in March smelters did not have expectations of negotiating downward the relevant payable indicator.

[Geopolitical Tensions Disrupted the Market, With SHFE and LME Closing Lower Over the Week] At the beginning of the week, continued overseas destocking supported a higher center for LME zinc; subsequently, as geopolitical tensions fueled inflation concerns, a stronger US dollar pressured the base metals sector, and LME zinc retreated after rapid rise, with its center moving lower......

[SHFE/LME Price Ratio Rebounded and Hovered Around 7.4]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio rebounded and fluctuated around just below 7.4, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Overseas, continued destocking supported the upward shift in the center of LME zinc; subsequently, as geopolitical developments fueled inflation concerns, a stronger US dollar pressured the base metals sector, and LME zinc retreated after rapid rise, with its center moving lower.

[Spot Discounts Widened During the Week; Watch Next Week’s Recovery]: This week, spot discounts in Shanghai stayed at low levels, with the weekly average price up 5 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, standard domestic brands were at a discount of 70 to 60 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, while the high-priced brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 0 to 30 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract..

A blocked Strait of Hormuz would upend global methanol supplies, hammer conventional methanol markets, and elevate green methanol’s strategic value, pushing China to diversify imports and boost green methanol for supply security.

[Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Plants Gradually Resumed Production; Operating Rates Continued to Rise This Week] This week, the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloy declined compared with before the holiday, mainly because there were still relatively few enterprises that had resumed production, and most alloy plants were expected to arrange production resumptions after the Lantern Festival......

[Downstream Operations Were Still Resuming, and Market Trading Was Better Than Last Week]: Spot premiums in Tianjin rose slightly this week, up 20 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, mainstream domestic brands were quoted at discounts of around 20-100 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, while high-priced brands were quoted at discounts of around 20-50 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract. Tianjin was quoted at a discount of around 10 yuan/mt against Shanghai, the Shanghai-Tianjin price spread narrowed, and contract rollover quotes were offered this week.

[Guangdong Premiums Weakened; Watch for Subsequent Changes in Consumption] This week, premiums in Guangdong fell by about 5 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, mainstream 0# zinc was quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt in Guangdong, and the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread narrowed......

DCE iron ore held up well today and dropped back slightly before the close. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 772 yuan/mt, up 1.38% from the previous trading session. The spot price rose 10-15 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in quoting, while steel mills made fewer inquiries. Spot trading sentiment was subdued. According to SMM statistics, total iron ore inventory at 35 major ports nationwide stood at 154.8 million mt, down 590,000 mt MoM, indicating a slight destocking trend. Over the same period, the daily average port pick-up volume rebounded to 2.55 million mt, up 145,000 mt MoM, suggesting a faster pace of port shipments. Demand improved slightly. The core logic supporting iron ore prices is gradually shifting from macro demand to structural contradictions on the supply side. Market concerns over structural shortages of certain mainstream mid- to high-grade ore types are fermenting, and these expectations have strengthened bullish sentiment, providing solid bottom support for prices. Looking ahead, the market is expected to see a tug-of-war between supply and demand in the short term. On the one hand, based on the production schedule, enforcement of blast furnace maintenance is expected to strengthen next week, which will create a phased restraint on immediate iron ore consumption. Against this backdrop of weaker demand, the aforementioned structural tightness on the supply side may be temporarily less apparent. However, once this round of concentrated maintenance ends and blast furnaces resume production as planned, iron ore demand is set to warm up in the short term. Driven by a rebound in demand, the structural shortage contradiction on the supply side will quickly stand out as the market’s main trading logic, and iron ore prices are expected to, overall, hold up well at that time.