March 16, 2026: Today, the average warrant price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day and closed at $46/mt (price range $42-50/mt); the average B/L price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day and closed at $45/mt (price range $41-49/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose by $2/mt from the previous trading day and closed at $21/mt (price range $17-25/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes arriving from late March to mid-April. The import window opened intraday, and importers were active in making inquiries. Market offers were pushed higher than last Friday, but few deals were concluded before the end of the morning session, with most traders taking a wait-and-see stance. It was heard that a small volume of ER copper B/L arriving in late March was offered at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L arriving in late March and early April was offered at $35, and EQ B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was offered at $35/mt, QP May. General ER copper warrants for delivery within the week were offered at $50/mt, QP April.

Tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the 2604 contract, with a contango spread of 110-60 yuan/mt between 2604 and 2605. Supply side: strong selling willingness, wide import window boosting inflow expectations, pressuring premiums. Demand: copper prices back below 100,000 yuan/mt but downstream buying weak; intraday trading muted, end-users cautious. SMM social inventory at 547,300 mt, down 26,600 mt but still high. With strong import expectations, supply pressure persists. Overall, with contract rollover done and strong import expectations, Shanghai spot copper expected under pressure tomorrow, discounts may widen.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market will officially quote against the 2604 contract. In terms of market structure, the Contango price spread between the 2604 and 2605 contracts was in the range of 110 yuan/mt to 60 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, and with the import window wide open, expectations for continued inflows of cargo from outside China strengthened, putting spot premiums under pressure. Demand side, although copper prices pulled back again below the 100,000 yuan/mt mark, procurement enthusiasm among downstream enterprises did not improve significantly. Intraday trading was light on both buying and selling sides, and at current price levels, end-users still maintained wait-and-see sentiment toward the subsequent price trend, with procurement turning cautious. Supply side, SMM recorded social inventory at 547,300 mt, down 26,600 mt from the previous period, but the absolute level remained high. Coupled with stronger import expectations, overall supply pressure still persisted. Overall, with the contract rollover completed and import expectations strengthening, Shanghai spot copper is expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, and discounts may widen further.

In North China today, spot #1 copper cathode was quoted at parity to a premium of 120 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with the average premium at 60 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 99,125 yuan/mt, down 1,345 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM News, March 12: Today in Guangdong, spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at a premium of 50 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 110 yuan/mt from last Friday; a discount of 10 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, down 50 yuan/mt from last Friday; and a discount of 85 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, down 85 yuan/mt from last Friday. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 98,955 yuan/mt, down 1,640 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 98,850 yuan/mt, down 1,625 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory did not continue to decline, but instead increased slightly, mainly due to increased arrivals. As today was the contract rollover day, market quotations were mixed. Mainstream transaction prices for standard-quality copper were at a discount of 120 yuan/mt against the next-month contract, while transaction prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 10 yuan/mt; overall trading was relatively quiet. Today, procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.32, down 0.08 from the previous trading day, and shipments sentiment was 3.01, down 0.29 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, market quotations were mixed on the contract rollover day, and overall trading was relatively quiet.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $12,871/mt. It hit a high of $12,942/mt amid wide swings early in the session, after which the center of copper prices gradually moved lower and fell to $12,733/mt near the close, finally settling at $12,735.5/mt, down 1.64%. Trading volume reached 22,600 lots, and open interest stood at 307,000 lots, an increase of 3,144 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears adding positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,520 yuan/mt and climbed to 100,760 yuan/mt early in the session. Afterwards, the center of copper prices fluctuated downward and touched a low of 99,710 yuan/mt near the close, with a decline of 0.86%. Trading volume reached 38,900 lots, and open interest stood at 190,000 lots, a decrease of 930 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bulls reducing positions.

SMM News, March 16: Data Brief: As of Monday, March 16, copper inventories in SMM’s major regions nationwide fell 5.46% WoW from the previous Monday, with destocking seen across all regions. Specifically, in Shanghai, arrivals of imported and domestic supplies were normal, while downstream consumption continued to recover, leading to some inventory drawdown; in Jiangsu, inventory declined slightly, supported by recovering downstream consumption; in Guangdong, consumption continued to improve, arrivals remained normal, and inventories likewise maintained a destocking trend. Looking ahead, arrivals of imported and domestic supplies are expected to remain stable, with overall supply stabilizing; demand side, the pullback in copper prices effectively stimulated downstream consumption, and rigid demand is gradually being released. According to the survey, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to rise to 79.19% this week, up 6.27 percentage points WoW. Taking both supply and demand into account, the market is currently showing a pattern of “stabilizing supply and recovering consumption,” and social inventory is expected to continue destocking this week.

Platinum prices fell sharply today. In early trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 528.95 yuan/g, down 4.18%. In the spot market, spot platinum was quoted at discounts of 7-9 yuan/g against PT2606, or at discounts of 3-5 yuan/g against the SGE Sell 1 price, with spot discounts narrowing slightly from the previous trading day. In terms of spot transactions, cargo-holding traders actively offered quotes. Downstream purchase willingness improved today due to order demand and lower spot prices. Some traders reported that platinum transactions were relatively good today, and overall trading in the spot market recovered somewhat.

Iron ore futures fell first and then rebounded today. The most-traded I2605 contract finally closed at 809 yuan/mt, down 0.74% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, the spot price fell by about 5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were only moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries, with purchases mainly driven by rigid demand. Overall, transactions in the spot market were relatively subdued. Last week, SMM's global iron ore shipments increased by 4.13 million mt WoW to 31.97 million mt, up 14.85%. Meanwhile, total port arrivals in China reached 28.13 million mt, up 5.06 million mt WoW, or 21.93%. The sharp surge in port arrivals further highlighted resistance on the fundamentals side. At the same time, the release of certain iron ore products from ports to some extent weighed on today's spot procurement demand. Together, these two factors curbed bullish sentiment in the iron ore market to a certain extent. Looking ahead, although the supply side was relatively loose this week, blast furnaces that had previously undergone maintenance are expected to resume production in a concentrated manner this week. Therefore, the market is expected to shift into a pattern of both strong supply and strong demand this week. Meanwhile, iron ore has again entered a structurally tight market, while the continued rise in freight rates has also provided cost support for iron ore. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs or hold up well in the short term.

Silver prices were in the doldrums today, and spot premiums in the spot market continued to decline. In the Shanghai market, mainstream quotations from suppliers of standard silver ingots in the morning session were at premiums of 400-500 yuan/kg against TD, but similar to last week, due to weaker downstream consumption and substantial bargaining, actual transaction premiums were lowered to 350-400 yuan/kg, with deals concluded on demand. In South China, smelters quoted silver ingots at a premium of 350 yuan/kg against the 2606 contract or at a premium of 400 yuan/kg against TD, but actual transactions were sluggish. Some traders said investment demand weakened markedly this week, buyers remained largely on the sidelines and continued to bargain aggressively, suppliers successively adjusted prices to ship cargoes, and spot market transactions turned subdued.