This week, multiple news items on the raw material front successively boosted market sentiment, with finished steel prices rebounding from lows in phases and generally showing a bottoming-out trend. At the start of the week, the weak fundamentals of finished steel were hard to change, and ferrous metals prices had overshot to the bottom. Subsequently, however, coal mines in Shanxi were affected by rainfall, and circuit failures led to production suspensions at some mines, sentimentally driving ferrous metals prices to bottom out. Mid-week, there were rumors of a 48-hour strike at BHP, with limited short-term tangible impact, but sentiment...

As of this Friday, SiMn 6517 (cash) in north China stood at 5,600-5,650 yuan/mt, down WoW; SiMn 6517 (cash) in south China stood at 5,700-5,750 yuan/mt, flat WoW; SiMn 6014 (cash) in south China stood at 5,350-5,450 yuan/mt, up WoW. Recently, SiMn futures moved sideways weakly, market sentiment was deeply pessimistic, spot prices fell, and futures and spot prices largely moved in tandem.

SMM August 7 News: Today, futures continued to surge, and spot cargo in South China showed strong resilience. Arrivals have already shown tightness, and the destocking trend is stable, continuing to support large-scale holders to be bullish on the outlook, hold prices firm and hold back from selling, and even some actively try to raise prices. Even without purchase response, they firmly refuse to adjust prices. Mainstream quotations were at a premium of 0 to +10 yuan/mt, with tight circulation in some areas. Demand side, downstream was temporarily unable to accept the price surge, and only made the minimum just-in-time procurement. However, with limited circulation, traders actively entering the market to purchase at non-premium prices have been sufficient to absorb the supply. The supply-demand pattern was tight, and overall transactions were stable with a positive bias. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at premiums of 65 yuan/mt to 105 yuan/mt over the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract.

Aug 7 News: At north China ports, manganese ore prices declined WoW across all grades: 46% Australian lumps (40-40.5 yuan/mtu), South African semi-carbonate (32.7-33.2 yuan/mtu), Gabonese ore (37.8-38.2 yuan/mtu), South African high-iron ore (28.5-29 yuan/mtu), and South African medium-iron ore (35-35.5 yuan/mtu). At south China ports, manganese ore prices were mixed WoW: 46% Australian lumps (42.9-43.4 yuan/mtu) remained flat, South African semi-carbonate (36.3-36.8 yuan/mtu) declined, Gabonese ore (40.6-41.1 yuan/mtu) declined, South African high-iron ore (31.2-31.7 yuan/mtu) declined, and South African medium-iron ore (38-38.5 yuan/mtu) remained flat. Manganese ore market prices are grinding lower, end-use demand is sluggish, and traders are commonly cutting prices to sell.

It is learned that as of August 6, the in-factory inventory of major delivery brands of primary lead stood at 22,200 mt, down 2,200 mt WoW. This week, maintenance and production cuts increased at some primary lead smelters in south China, leading to a phased tightening of lead ingot supply. At the beginning of the week, affected by falling lead prices, downstream enterprises’ dip-buying interest picked up, driving the destocking of smelter inventories; however, as lead prices stopped falling and rebounded in the latter half of the week, downstream purchases turned cautious again, market transactions returned to just-in-time demand, and the decline in in-factory inventory was relatively limited. Next week will enter the week before delivery of the SHFE lead 2608 contract, and suppliers are expected to move more inventories to delivery warehouses for delivery; some in-factory lead ingots may continue to be transferred to delivery warehouses. Driven by the delivery factor, the in-factory inventory of primary lead smelters is expected to maintain its downtrend.

August rebar planned production at 7.2229 million mt, down 96,100 mt or 1.31% from July actual output. August wire rod planned production at 3.0722 million mt, down 120,800 mt or 3.78% from July actual output. Export planned production of long products at sampled steel mills in August was 590,000 mt, down 63,000 mt MoM, with billet export planned production at 320,000 mt, down 30,000 mt MoM.

SMM, August 7 – Today, Guangdong’s #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was reported at a premium of 160 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was reported at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt; and SX-EW copper was reported at parity, up 30 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 108,355 yuan/mt, up 455 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 108,245 yuan/mt, up 425 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory declined today, mainly due to reduced arrivals. Copper prices kept rising and hit a new high, leaving end-users extremely reluctant to place orders. However, suppliers remained bullish on the outlook and instead held prices firm when selling today. The divergence between buyers and sellers was wide, and spot trades were sluggish. The buying sentiment for Guangdong copper cathode was 2.28, down 0.02 from the previous trading day, while the selling sentiment was 2.85, up 0.02 (historical data can be accessed through the SMM database). Overall, copper prices hit a new high, downstream purchases were sluggish, yet suppliers held prices firm when selling, leaving spot trades sluggish.

[Overseas New Energy Project Connected to China's Electricity Market for the First Time] Lao hydropower is transmitted to China's Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area via the China-Laos 500 kV interconnection project. This power transmission is expected to last until the end of October, with a total volume of about 600 million kWh, and the corresponding electricity is simultaneously participating in the South China regional electricity market trading. This move marks the continued strengthening of power mutual support capabilities between China and Laos and further improvement in the optimal allocation of cross-regional clean energy.

SMM, August 6: Today the futures surged, and spot aluminum in South China was exceptionally firm. Arrivals became even tighter and inventory destocking was significant; holders, especially those above the scale, were generally firmly bullish on the outlook and held prices firm when selling; the absolute price shot up, prompting a small portion to lower the discount and sell first, but this did not cause a major impact. Mainstream quotations were at a discount of -10 to a premium of +10 yuan/mt, and overall supply was slightly tight. Demand side, downstream users were unable to chase the rally, and just-in-time procurement also began to be under pressure and weaken; however, traders remained highly enthusiastic about entering the market to purchase, gradually shifting from pushing for lower prices and only buying at a discount to also buying at no premium. Supply and demand tightened amid divergent views, and overall transactions were commendable. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at a premium of 60 to 100 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract.

The monthly rental quotation for H200 has further risen to 140,000 yuan per unit; a data center in South China offers 32 units of 5090 available for single-unit leasing, at 11,500 yuan per month with a six-month minimum contract, plus 1,000 yuan per unit per month for ROCe networking, and they have been in service for three days; one H100 has been released at a data center in Zhejiang, with a monthly rent of 76,000 yuan, a one-year minimum lease, and expected delivery on August 16.