At the start of this week, US nonfarm payrolls for February unexpectedly declined, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts rebounded somewhat, briefly boosting copper prices. Trump then signaled that tensions between the US and Iran might ease, sending oil prices lower and the US dollar weaker, which triggered a phased rebound in copper prices. However, after oil tankers in the Gulf region came under attack and Iran stated that it would continue to close the Strait of Hormuz, tensions in the Middle East escalated again. Rising crude oil prices lifted safe-haven sentiment, and the stronger US dollar index weighed on copper prices. At the same time, US February CPI came in line with expectations, and market bets on interest rate cuts within the year were scaled back markedly, weakening expectations for macro liquidity. In terms of positioning, bulls continued to reduce positions, and capital turned more cautious. Overall, macro uncertainty and repeated shifts in interest rate cut expectations remain intertwined, and copper prices are still likely to fluctuate rangebound in the short term. Fundamentals side, TC in the copper concentrates market was still falling. Recent mine tender prices pointed to a median of -$60/mt. For copper cathode, the inventory buildup showed a turning point, and the import window opened slightly. According to SMM, downstream operating activity was more active than expected, with active pricing below the copper price range of 100,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic is expected to remain unchanged, and geopolitical tensions are still expected to provide strong support to the US dollar, leaving significant short-term resistance for copper prices. However, fundamentals are supporting copper prices, which are expected to remain fluctuating near the range in the short term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $12,800/mt and $13,200/mt, and SHFE copper between 99,000 yuan/mt and 101,000 yuan/mt. In the spot market, as delivery approaches, spot market trading logic will fluctuate with the price spread between futures contracts and funding costs, and is expected to gradually rise next week. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to range from a discount of 180 yuan/mt to a discount of 80 yuan/mt.

This week (March 6–12), the operating rate of SMM copper wire and cable enterprises was 66.59, up 5.69 points MoM and down 10.62 points YoY. The operating rate steadily rebounded this week, mainly due to a slight correction in copper prices that drove order release, coupled with support from concentrated power grid deliveries, though the current pace of order recovery remained weaker than in the same period last year. By sector, orders from the power segment continued to support enterprise production schedules, orders from the new energy segment also improved, while construction project orders remained weak, dragging on overall operating rates. Inventory side, the correction in copper prices drove enterprises to restock for rigid demand, but as enterprises maintained production schedules, days of raw material inventories fell 0.31 days MoM this week; for finished product inventories, the correction in copper prices boosted downstream consumption, but high copper prices still restrained end-user purchase willingness, so days of finished product inventories fell 0.41 days MoM. Looking ahead to next week, current orders on hand from the power and new energy sectors will continue to provide the main support for production scheduling. SMM expects the operating rate of copper wire and cable next week (March 13–19) to increase 3.45 points MoM to 70.04, down 4.49 points YoY.

SMM March 12 News: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 160 yuan/mt, unchanged from yesterday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, unchanged from yesterday; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, unchanged from yesterday. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 100,595 yuan/mt, down 265 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,475 yuan/mt, down 265 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory had declined sharply for three consecutive days, mainly due to an increase in shipments. Current inventory had fallen by 10kt from the year-to-date high. Although inventory continued to fall today, traders and downstream buyers were markedly less active in restocking than yesterday; however, suppliers were unwilling to cut prices to sell, with significant disagreements between buyers and sellers, resulting in poor overall transactions. Today, purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.4, down 0.11 from the previous trading day, and shipment sentiment was 3.3, down 0.27 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried by logging into the database). Overall, traders and downstream buyers were markedly less active in restocking than yesterday, and spot premiums were unchanged from yesterday.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, next Monday will be the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2603 contract. According to the SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM always quotes against the front-month contract. The contango price spread between futures contracts narrowed slightly, and suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouses weakened somewhat, marginally loosening support for spot premiums. Meanwhile, import losses have narrowed substantially, and there are signs that the import window is about to open. If the window opens, it will bring in cargo from outside China, increasing pressure on spot supply in China and creating potential downward pressure on premiums. On the demand side, downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, providing some support for prices, but intraday, some downstream enterprises were seen to have limited acceptance of spot cargo with high premiums, with procurement turning more cautious. On the supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargo continued to arrive, while social inventory remained high. As SMM always quotes against the front-month contract, the shift in the price spread between futures contracts is expected to result in high premiums against the front-month contract, though this is expected to be corrected on the second trading day. Overall, under the dominance of delivery logic, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at elevated levels next Monday.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,044/mt. It touched a high of $13,063.5/mt in early trading, then the center moved lower to a low of $12,929/mt, and finally closed at $12,948.5/mt, down 0.77%. Trading volume came in at 17,000 lots, down 235 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 304,000 lots, up 279 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting an increase in bears' positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,240 yuan/mt. It touched a high of 101,240 yuan/mt at the open, then the center moved lower to a low of 100,560 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,860 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. Trading volume came in at 26,000 lots, down 62,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 189,000 lots, down 3,320 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting a reduction in bulls' positions overall.

Spot #1 copper cathode in North China was quoted at parity to a premium of 80 yuan/mt against the front-month contract today, with the average premium unchanged from the previous trading day at 40 yuan/mt, and the average transaction price down 155 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 100,470 yuan/mt.

Recently, Donghua Engineering Technology Co., Ltd. (Donghua Technology) released a major contract announcement. On March 5, 2026, in Hefei, Anhui province, the company formally signed an EPC general contracting agreement for Phase I, Stage 1 Green Ammonia Works of the 800,000-mt/year wind and solar power hydrogen-ammonia integration project with Renewable Green Hydrogen Energy (Inner Mongolia) Co., Ltd. (“Renewable Green Hydrogen”), supporting the scaled implementation of Inner Mongolia’s green hydrogen and green ammonia industry. I. Core Project Overview The project signed this time is the first-phase works of the 800,000-mt/year wind and solar power hydrogen-ammonia integration project. The plant’s design capacity is **200,000 mt/year of green ammonia**. The scope of construction covers a complete supporting system including newly built process production units, storage and transportation units, auxiliary facilities, utilities, and front-of-plant living facilities. Relying on wind and solar power renewable energy to produce hydrogen and synthesize green ammonia, it will build a clean, low-carbon chemical industry chain. II. Key Contract Information Contract Value : 2.026 billion yuan (provisional estimate) Schedule Arrangement : The contract duration is approximately 27 months, and the planned mechanical completion date is expected to be June 18, 2028 Scope of Contracting : Donghua Technology is fully responsible for the full-process EPC work, including pre-project consulting, design, procurement, construction and installation, testing and detection, cooperation for completion acceptance, operation support, construction-period insurance, handover, and start-up commissioning guidance. III. Project Entity and Performance Assurance The entity responsible for the project’s construction and operation is Renewable Green Hydrogen Energy (Inner Mongolia) Co., Ltd. Its controlling shareholder is Yijingxing Green Hydrogen Energy Investment (Hainan) Co., Ltd., and the ultimate controlling party is Renewable Green Hydrogen Energy Technology Asia Co., Ltd. Currently, the project has completed the investment project filing with the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and the partners have sufficient performance capability, laying a solid foundation for the smooth advancement of the project.

This week (3.6-3.12), the operating rate of the brass billet industry rose 8.72 percentage points WoW to 51.95%, with industry conditions continuing to rebound . According to enterprise feedback, overall orders were favorable, with Ningbo standing out in particular as order growth was significant and enterprises' production schedules were full; downstream traditional sectors such as hardware accessories and plumbing and sanitary ware had fully resumed work and production, with strong production enthusiasm. Meanwhile, orders from the refrigeration sector remained stable, continuing to support industry demand. In addition, copper prices pulled back to below 100,000 yuan/mt this week, boosting downstream purchase willingness to buy the dip and further driving order growth. Multiple positive factors pushed the operating rate steadily higher. On the inventory side, this week the industry had 4.23 days of raw material inventories and 5.06 days of finished product inventories, both returning to normal levels. Looking ahead to next week (3.13-3.19), enterprises currently had sufficient orders on hand and were all operating at full capacity. Some enterprises that resumed work relatively late after the Chinese New Year were stepping up production and accelerating deliveries. Along with the continued recovery in downstream demand, SMM expects the operating rate of the brass billet industry to increase 2.82 percentage points WoW to 54.77% next week, and the industry's recovery momentum is expected to continue.

SMM, March 12: Guangdong: Spot premiums in the region continued to rise this week. Lower copper prices, coupled with an increase in terminal orders, lifted consumption among copper processing enterprises, driving inventory lower and supporting higher spot premiums. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at 160 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt from last Thursday; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt from last Thursday. On Thursday, the price spread in standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong stood at 0 yuan/mt. With the spread relatively small, there was no cross-region cargo transfer. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 90,800 mt, down 6,300 mt from last Thursday. Warrants totaled 51,300 mt, down 1,500 mt from last Thursday. As spot cargo supply decreased and discounts turned into premiums, warrants began flowing into the market. Specifically, warehouse arrivals this week were 13,100 mt/week, down 2,500 mt/week WoW and slightly below the annual average of 14,000 mt/week. Arrivals of both imported copper and domestic copper declined WoW this week. Warehouse withdrawals were 20,200 mt/week, up 8,600 mt/week WoW and far above the annual average of 14,200 mt/week. After the Lantern Festival, downstream enterprises fully resumed operations. In addition, many enterprises had not stockpiled much before the holiday, and actively replenished inventory after the holiday while copper prices remained low. Looking ahead to next week, although delivery is approaching, spot cargo has already shifted to premiums. Suppliers are expected to show weaker willingness to deliver cargo to warehouses for delivery, and imported copper arrivals have also not increased. Total supply is expected to be slightly lower than this week. On the demand side, demand is expected to remain at this week's high level. Therefore, inventory is expected to remain in a state where demand exceeds supply next week, with inventory fluctuating lower, and spot premiums are expected to continue rebounding. (The above information is based on market collection and the comprehensive assessment of the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, China’s alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW and the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW, with no new capacity added. No offline delivery information was available this week. Project-related developments: Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Technology Equipment Co., Ltd.: Its indirectly wholly owned subsidiary, Xinjiang Guofu Mingzhi Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd., entered into a sales agreement with independent third party Hefei Zhongke Hecheng Green Energy Co., Ltd. for hydrogen production equipment for a green fuel base demonstration project featuring 20,000 mt of green electricity-based hydrogen production and flexible synthetic ammonia. The total contract value exceeded 55 million yuan. Under the agreement, Guofu Mingzhi will supply the client with six sets of 1,000 Nm³/hour alkaline electrolyzers and auxiliary equipment, such as rectifier transformers, rectifier cabinets, and separation and purification equipment. Xizang Zangqing Energy Equipment Co., Ltd.: A tender announcement was officially issued for the EPC project covering design and construction of Phase I of the zero-carbon intelligent equipment base for the new energy industry of green hydrogen and green methanol in the Zangqing Industrial Park. It is understood that the project mainly includes: an annual output of 100 sets of 1,500 Nm³-2,000 Nm³ alkaline electrolyzers; a 500 MW/year production line for plateau-type PEM electrolyzers; a standardized production line for a 40,000 t/d methanol synthesis unit and components; an annual output of 120 sets of 500 kW integrated hydrogen-oxygen heat and power co-generation units; and an annual output of 50 sets of 500 kg/day skid-mounted integrated methanol hydrogen refueling station equipment. Renewable Green Hydrogen Energy (Inner Mongolia) Co., Ltd.: An announcement was issued on the signing of the EPC general contract for the Phase I, Stage I green ammonia project of the integrated 800,000 mt/year wind and solar power-hydrogen-ammonia project with Donghua Technology. It is understood that the contract was signed by both parties on March 5, with a contract value of 2.026 billion yuan (provisional estimate), and the construction period (mechanical completion) will run until June 18, 2028. Donghua Engineering Technology Co., Ltd. will mainly undertake the design, procurement, construction, operation assurance services, and guidance for startup and commissioning of the EPC project. Tangshan Haitai New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : During the visit by the deputy secretary of the Abaqa Banner Committee in Inner Mongolia, the two sides further deepened cooperation on the 10 GW integrated wind and solar power-to-hydrogen project, working together to advance the project’s early commencement and commissioning. Maoming Binhai New Area Urban Investment Development Co., Ltd.: A public notice was issued on the shortlisted candidates for the construction of Phase I of the supporting road network project for the Green Chemical and Hydrogen Energy Industrial Park in Maoming Binhai New Area. The first shortlisted candidate was CCCC Fourth Harbor Engineering Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 98.210593 million yuan; the second shortlisted candidate was Hebei Xiangda Road & Bridge Engineering Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 98.23076 million yuan; and the third shortlisted candidate was Jiangxi Sitong Road & Bridge Construction Group Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 98.008929 million yuan. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong New Materials Co., Ltd.: A tender announcement was issued for the equipment procurement project for the hydrogen purification unit of the cyclohexanone technology upgrade and renovation project. It is understood that the project plans to procure one set of hydrogen purification unit equipment, with a maximum bid price of 7 million yuan. Inner Mongolia Juliyong Hydrogen New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: Its new-type high-density, low-pressure solid-state hydrogen energy power R&D and industrialisation project was filed. The project will be constructed in Ordos City—Ordos Airport Logistics Park—Phase II, First Floor, Standardised Factory Buildings, Ordos Comprehensive Bonded Zone, Ejin Horo Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia. The project is expected to be built in two phases, with a total investment of approximately 120 million yuan. It requires 10 million yuan in policy support funding, with Phase I investment of 40 million yuan and Phase II investment of 80 million yuan. The construction period is three years, and after completion, the project is expected to generate annual profit of 30 million yuan. Policy Review 1. At the press conference held during the fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress, Zheng Shanjie, Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that China would focus on developing the “six emerging pillar industries” and the “six future industries.” Among them, “green hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy” were included in the category of future industries. 2. The People's Government of Shandong Province issued the Implementation Plan on Supporting Jining in Accelerating Green and Low-Carbon Transformation and Building New Advantages in High-Quality Development. The document proposed supporting Jining in fostering and developing emerging industries and future industries such as hydrogen energy production, storage, and transportation, and supporting the construction of future industry acceleration parks; advancing R&D breakthroughs in key technologies such as hydrogen fuel cell vessels, building a leading inland new energy vessel manufacturing base in China; and supporting technological innovation and the promotion and application in fields such as hydrogen energy. 3. With the approval of the National Energy Administration, the Standardisation Technical Committee for the Hydrogen Energy Sector of the Energy Industry was established in Beijing. The establishment of the committee aims to improve the industry standard system, lead technological innovation, and regulate market order. Enterprise Updates Qinghang Times (Shenzhen) Technology Co., Ltd. : Qinghang Times was established on January 5, 2026, with a registered capital of 1 million yuan and legal representative He Rongjie. It was founded by a Tsinghua University master's and doctoral team, received support from Tsinghua innovation and entrepreneurship platforms such as Tsinghua i-Space and Tsinghua Chuang+, and was selected for the Sci-Tech Innovation Light “Future Sci-Tech Entrepreneur Program.” Through its technical solution combining liquid hydrogen storage and a high-temperature PEM hydrogen-electric coupling system, it increased aircraft driving range by more than 10 times and payload by 2–3 times. Recently, it completed seed-round financing worth several million yuan, with the investor undisclosed. Shenzhen Hydrogen Energy Co., Ltd.: Completed A+ round financing, with Shenzhen Energy Investment as the investor. Anhui Shuishui New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : Anhui Shuishui Technology completed an A-round financing of over 100 million yuan, led by NIO Capital. This round of funding will be primarily used to fulfill large orders, increase R&D reserves, construct new factories, and support daily operations, in order to drive the integration and upgrading of the industry chain. SPIC Green Energy Co., Ltd.: held talks with Beijing Energy International Holding Co., Ltd., with both sides focusing on areas such as the construction of green electricity transmission channels into Beijing and pipeline transportation of green hydrogen, and conducting in-depth exchanges on deepening cooperation. Beijing Hydrosys Technology Co., Ltd. : helped successfully complete hydrogen refueling at Yunnan’s first integrated “PV–green electricity–hydrogen” refueling station. China Classification Society ​​​​​​​: supported the successful completion of the 16,136 TEU methanol dual-fuel container ship project. China Classification Society​​​​​​​​​​​​​​: the “COSCO 9802,” a single methanol-powered chemical tanker for which it carried out drawing approval and construction inspection, was successfully delivered. ​​Patent Applications​​ 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences​​ (China) disclosed patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested lifespan of 80,000 hours. ​​2. Johnson Matthey​​ (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing a Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint/Technical Specifications​​ 1. A team from Xi’an Jiaotong University and Peking University jointly developed a new-type osmium-based catalyst, significantly improving the efficiency and economics of hydrogen production from AEM water electrolysis and supporting the large-scale deployment of low-cost green hydrogen. 2. Johnson Matthey and Syensqo achieved efficient recycling and reuse of platinum group metals and ionomers in PEM fuel cells and electrolyzers, substantially reducing the carbon footprint. 3.​​Research teams from the School of Electrical Engineering of Xi’an Jiaotong University and the State Key Laboratory of Electrical Materials and Electrical Insulation successfully developed the Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF bifunctional electrocatalyst for seawater electrolysis. 4. The group standard Technical Specification for Wind and Solar Power, PV+ESS, and Green Electricity Coupled Electrolysis Hydrogen Production (No. T/CIEP 0272—2025) was released and implemented by the China Industrial Environmental Protection Promotion Association. Zhongneng Dayou Energy Technology Co., Ltd. successfully developed a 100 kW-class PEM electrolyzer hydrogen production multi-field coupling test device. 5. GKN Powder Metallurgy announced that it had developed a next-generation high performance, high-porosity, high-purity porous transport layer (HP-PTL) for proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis.