[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Pulled Back, Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment Downstream] Affected by news-related factors, the Pr-Nd oxide market saw heightened wait-and-see sentiment among downstream metal plants, and some traders proactively cut prices to boost shipments. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices had pulled back to 845,000-850,000 yuan/mt.

SMM News on March 6: From February 27, 2026 to March 6, 2026, the weekly operating rate of SMM secondary lead across four provinces was 27.12%, down 2.6 percentage points WoW. Most smelters in Anhui had yet to resume production, while smelters in Henan cut production due to tight raw material supply; workers at smelters in Jiangsu returned to work after the Lantern Festival, and the operating rate increased by about 5 percentage points this week; the operating rate in Inner Mongolia was flat WoW. Affected by factors including environmental protection requirements during the Two Sessions, tight raw material supply, and weak downstream demand, secondary lead smelters’ production resumptions were concentrated at month-end March, and SMM expected relatively small fluctuations in the operating rate next week. > Subscribe to view SMM historical metal spot prices

This week (February 27–March 5), the enamelled wire industry saw a strong post-holiday rebound, with the weekly operating rate rising sharply by 31.14 percentage points WoW to .....

[Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Plants Gradually Resumed Production; Operating Rates Continued to Rise This Week] This week, the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloy declined compared with before the holiday, mainly because there were still relatively few enterprises that had resumed production, and most alloy plants were expected to arrange production resumptions after the Lantern Festival......

This week (February 27–March 5), the operating rate of SMM copper wire and cable enterprises was 60.9%, an increase of 33.17 percentage points MoM and up 3.79 percentage points from the second week after work resumption last year on a YoY basis. This week, wire and cable enterprises had basically fully resumed operations, and production continued to recover. Demand side, power grid orders placed in a concentrated manner before the holiday entered a concentrated delivery period, accelerating enterprises’ production pace. In addition, after the Lantern Festival, workers gradually returned to their posts, and engineering and market orders were also gradually released. Inventory side, driven by restocking on the copper price pullback and production preparation, enterprises’ raw material inventory increased 7.01% MoM; finished product inventories fell 5.7% MoM, mainly because downstream players resumed operations after the holiday and gradually began to pick up goods, accelerating the drawdown of finished product inventories. Looking ahead to next week, as downstream ordering and cargo pick-up progress accelerates and enterprises fully resume production, SMM expects the operating rate of copper wire and cable to increase 5.21 percentage points MoM to 66.1% next week (March 6–March 12).

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, spot discounts for Shanghai spot copper are expected to continue a steady recovery. From the market structure perspective, the price spread between futures contracts for the next-month C contract remained around 300 yuan/mt, prompting suppliers to hold prices firm and withhold sales. Meanwhile, the downward shift in the center of copper prices effectively stimulated downstream purchase willingness, driving a notable rise in spot premiums. Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargo continued to arrive, and with social inventory at elevated levels, overall circulating supply in the market remained ample. Under the combined effects of suppliers holding prices firm and downstream buying the dip, the momentum for the recovery in spot discounts is expected to continue.

After the Lantern Festival, brass billet enterprises basically fully resumed work and production, driving the industry operating rate this week (2.27-3.5) up 26.1 percentage points MoM to 43.23%. However, overall market performance remained cautious. As downstream sectors such as hardware and sanitary ware resumed work and production slowly, new orders were limited, leading to weak stockpiling sentiment among enterprises. This week, days of raw material inventories at sampled enterprises only held at a mid-to-low level of 4.29 days, while days of finished product inventories were 5.19 days, also at a mid-level. This reflected that the industry was still in a wait-and-see phase amid destocking, with overall trading activity average. Looking ahead to next week (3.6-3.12), as the traditional peak consumption season approaches and downstream further resumes work, new orders are expected to increase gradually. SMM expected the operating rate to rise 2.69 percentage points MoM to 45.92%, and market activity was expected to improve.

[Prices Lack Upward Momentum; Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices May Temporarily Hold Steady Next Week] Steel mill production remained stable, with no significant production cuts or expansion. After the holiday, supplies gradually arrived in the market, and market supply was ample, with no pressure from resource shortages for the time being. Meanwhile, grain-oriented silicon steel has relatively high barriers in production processes, making supply-side rigidity relatively strong; coupled with the benchmark pricing role of leading steel mills, downside room for prices is limited.

Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include China’s February CPI y/y, the US February non-seasonally adjusted CPI y/y, the US January core PCE price index y/y, and the preliminary US March one-year inflation expectations; meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, with unchanged impacts on maritime shipping and energy supply, while a surge in oil prices has hit interest rate cut expectations, and US Treasury traders have increasingly expected that the US Fed will not cut interest rates this year. In addition, on March 6, SHFE officially announced the passage of the revision plan for lead futures contracts, with secondary lead substitutes at a discount of 150 yuan/mt to deliverable-grade material. LME lead, overseas geopolitical issues have mixed bullish and bearish impacts on the lead market: on the one hand, hindered transportation and rising energy prices such as natural gas have pushed up smelting cost, and lead-acid battery exports have also been constrained by transportation restrictions; on the other hand, there is the impact of damage to the economic environment. In addition, overseas lead inventory has remained elevated after surging by more than 50,000 mt during the Chinese New Year period, leaving lead prices under pressure. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,930-1,990/mt next week. SHFE lead, in March, both domestic lead ingot supply and demand increased, and with imported lead supplementing supply, the destocking speed of lead ingots has been slow, leaving insufficient momentum for lead prices to rise. The secondary lead segment is currently in a loss-making state, and some smelters have slowed the pace of resuming production, providing support for lead prices. In addition, next week is the week before delivery for the SHFE lead 2603 contract, and suppliers will transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouse; expectations of a cumulative increase in visible inventory may weigh on lead prices. Overall, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,600-17,000 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,500-16,700 yuan/mt. Demand side, the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises rose, and their lead ingot purchases will rise accordingly, with more expectations of purchasing as needed. Supply side, primary lead smelters’ production was steady to slightly higher, and market circulating supply was ample; however, considering the factor of shipping to delivery warehouse, this may ease suppliers’ pressure to make shipments, keeping spot discounts stable, while secondary refined lead smelters have resumed work at a slightly slower pace and, amid losses, secondary refined lead smelters will hold prices firm in shipments, with limited widening of discounts.

SMM News on March 6: This week, secondary lead premiums showed clear regional divergence, with parity prevailing overall, and most suppliers refusing to ship at a discount; only some cargoes in South China and Central China were offered at a discount of 100-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In terms of profits, scrap battery prices stayed firm, making it difficult for smelters to reduce costs, and industry losses continued. As of March 6, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises was -330 yuan/mt, and -543 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized enterprises (by-product revenue in the model excluded tin and antimony). Looking into next week, SMM expected supply tightness in raw materials to persist, leading the secondary lead operating rate to maintain its downward trend; under loss pressure, suppliers were likely to narrow discounts or keep parity offers, while downstream battery producers still made just-in-time procurement on a wait-and-see basis, resulting in relatively light market transactions. 》Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices