[SMM Daily Review: Back-and-Forth Negotiations Between Upstream and Downstream Continued; Tight Supply of High Nickel Unit Cargoes Sustained Premiums] News on March 5: The upstream sentiment factor for SMM high-grade NPI was 2.88, up 0.01 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.37, up 0.05 MoM.

This week, ternary cathode precursor prices declined slightly. Raw materials, nickel sulphate prices edged up today, cobalt sulphate prices declined again, and manganese sulphate prices held steady.

SMM Nickel News, March 4: Macro and Market Updates: (1) Trump: After the 15% tariff deadline, we will gradually announce tariffs for different countries; we will raise tariff agreements for certain countries. (2) US Fed—① Kashkari: With the clouds of war looming, we originally expected one interest rate cut in 2026, but now it is uncertain. ② Williams: The US Fed will have to consider the spillover effects of the Iran issue on foreign markets and trading partners. He still believed rates were slightly above the neutral rate. Spot Market: On March 4, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,900 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for domestically mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fluctuated and strengthened in early trading, and closed at 137,410 yuan/mt, up 0.12%. After a consecutive pullback, nickel prices showed initial signs of stabilizing. News that Indonesia may additionally supplement quotas weakened the earlier supply tightens narrative, but cost support remained solid. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was expected to fluctuate around 140,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Lead Morning Brief: Geopolitical Risks Ease, Lead Prices Recover the Previous Day’s Losses] SMM, March 5: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,937/mt. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persisted, but the impact of bearish news weakened...

SMM News on March 5: The most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,775 yuan/mt today. After a slight pull back in early trading, it fluctuated rangebound around 16,825 yuan/mt, with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts relatively stalemated. During the session, lead prices quickly dipped, and although they rebounded slightly toward the close, the overall center gradually moved lower. It eventually closed at a low of 16,770 yuan/mt, forming a doji, down about 65 yuan from the previous trading day’s settlement price, a decline of about 0.39%. Secondary lead smelters postponed resuming production to mid-to-late March due to poor profitability. After the holiday, scrap collection by recyclers remained tight, and raw material shortages at smelters provided cost support. Downstream battery producers mainly focused on digesting pre-holiday inventory, making small-lot purchases for rigid demand. The dual weakness in supply and demand in the lead market continued, and lead price fluctuations are expected to be limited in the short term. Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel was $15,549/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt was $49,819/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 85-86, and the MHP cobalt element payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 91. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $15,910/mt Ni.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Bullish and Bearish Factors Coexisted in Domestic and Overseas Markets; Lead Prices Were Expected to Remain Consolidated] US Treasury Secretary Bessent: A 15% global tariff might be implemented this week, pledged to safeguard the Persian Gulf, and hinted that more measures were forthcoming. Recently, lead-acid battery enterprises in the domestic market basically resumed production, and the overall operating rate in March rebounded sharply from February…

SMM, March 5: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated upward, with the price center higher than the previous trading day. Affected by the US-Iran conflict, aluminum prices continued to rise. Impacted by high aluminum prices today, buying sentiment declined while selling sentiment increased. The spot-futures price spread was currently relatively strong, and some traders were still purchasing for hedging. Bullish sentiment was strong in the market, and sellers held prices firm. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were from the average price to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 2.98, up 0.3 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.96, down 0.23 MoM. Geopolitical conflict affected Aluminum Bahrain’s shipments, intensifying sentiment of financial constraints. Traders in the central China market remained bullish. Although downstream processing enterprises were constrained by weaker-than-expected orders and inventories not yet fully depleted, resulting in relatively weak purchasing sentiment, traders’ purchases boosted overall market transactions, and premiums remained relatively firm. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from central China price +10 yuan to central China price -30 yuan, with mainstream transaction prices concentrated at central China price -10 yuan to -20 yuan. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.77, up 0.07 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.4, up 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased 13,000 mt MoM today. Affected by seasonality, all three regions saw inventory buildup. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingots continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - Gold's appeal as it draws support from the widening conflict in the Middle East is expected to ​remain intact even if some investors have favoured the dollar as their preferred safe haven, traders and analysts said.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,146/mt and hit an early high of $13,153/mt. Thereafter, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower, dipping to $12,975/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,027.5/mt, up 0.49%. Trading volume rose to 25,000 lots, and open interest to 306,000 lots, down 1,096 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,640 yuan/mt and climbed early to 102,080 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 101,200 yuan/mt, followed by wide swings, and finally settled at 101,700 yuan/mt, up 0.45%. Trading volume rose to 44,800 lots, and open interest to 195,000 lots, down 213 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions.