SMM News on March 5: The most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,775 yuan/mt today. After a slight pull back in early trading, it fluctuated rangebound around 16,825 yuan/mt, with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts relatively stalemated. During the session, lead prices quickly dipped, and although they rebounded slightly toward the close, the overall center gradually moved lower. It eventually closed at a low of 16,770 yuan/mt, forming a doji, down about 65 yuan from the previous trading day’s settlement price, a decline of about 0.39%. Secondary lead smelters postponed resuming production to mid-to-late March due to poor profitability. After the holiday, scrap collection by recyclers remained tight, and raw material shortages at smelters provided cost support. Downstream battery producers mainly focused on digesting pre-holiday inventory, making small-lot purchases for rigid demand. The dual weakness in supply and demand in the lead market continued, and lead price fluctuations are expected to be limited in the short term. Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM News on March 4: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,780 yuan/mt. It edged down slightly in early trading, touching an intraday low of 16,740 yuan/mt. After the Lantern Festival, trading activity in the lead spot market increased, providing a slight boost to SHFE lead; it fluctuated upward in the afternoon, and rose to around 16,860 yuan/mt near the close, finally settling at 16,840 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, with the % change flat from the previous trading day. After the Lantern Festival holiday, the steady release of smelting capacity and the slow recovery in downstream consumption formed a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, and lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Bullish and Bearish Factors Coexisted in Domestic and Overseas Markets; Lead Prices Were Expected to Remain Consolidated] US Treasury Secretary Bessent: A 15% global tariff might be implemented this week, pledged to safeguard the Persian Gulf, and hinted that more measures were forthcoming. Recently, lead-acid battery enterprises in the domestic market basically resumed production, and the overall operating rate in March rebounded sharply from February…

[SMM Lead Morning Brief: Geopolitical Risks Ease, Lead Prices Recover the Previous Day’s Losses] SMM, March 5: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,937/mt. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persisted, but the impact of bearish news weakened...

[SMM Lead Morning Update: US Dollar Index Nears 100; LME Lead Falls to a 10-Month Low] SMM News, March 4: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,967.5/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead traded relatively steadily, consolidating around $1,970/mt for most of the session......

LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - Gold's appeal as it draws support from the widening conflict in the Middle East is expected to ​remain intact even if some investors have favoured the dollar as their preferred safe haven, traders and analysts said.

SMM Mar 2 Update: The most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,805 yuan/mt. In the early session, it slightly declined due to weak demand. However, boosted by geopolitical factors, nonferrous metals generally rose, and lead prices also strengthened in a fluctuating trend, reaching as high as 16,930 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 16,837 yuan/mt, marking a four-day winning streak, up 55 yuan/mt, or 0.33%. High smelter inventories coexist with delayed resumption of production, coupled with slower-than-expected recovery in downstream consumption. Bullish and bearish factors are balancing each other, and lead prices are expected to maintain a sideways movement. Overnight, close attention should be paid to the impact of changes in market sentiment on nonferrous metal prices, given the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Data Source Statement: Apart from publicly available information, other data is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, March 5: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated upward, with the price center higher than the previous trading day. Affected by the US-Iran conflict, aluminum prices continued to rise. Impacted by high aluminum prices today, buying sentiment declined while selling sentiment increased. The spot-futures price spread was currently relatively strong, and some traders were still purchasing for hedging. Bullish sentiment was strong in the market, and sellers held prices firm. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were from the average price to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 2.98, up 0.3 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.96, down 0.23 MoM. Geopolitical conflict affected Aluminum Bahrain’s shipments, intensifying sentiment of financial constraints. Traders in the central China market remained bullish. Although downstream processing enterprises were constrained by weaker-than-expected orders and inventories not yet fully depleted, resulting in relatively weak purchasing sentiment, traders’ purchases boosted overall market transactions, and premiums remained relatively firm. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from central China price +10 yuan to central China price -30 yuan, with mainstream transaction prices concentrated at central China price -10 yuan to -20 yuan. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.77, up 0.07 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.4, up 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased 13,000 mt MoM today. Affected by seasonality, all three regions saw inventory buildup. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingots continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,146/mt and hit an early high of $13,153/mt. Thereafter, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower, dipping to $12,975/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,027.5/mt, up 0.49%. Trading volume rose to 25,000 lots, and open interest to 306,000 lots, down 1,096 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,640 yuan/mt and climbed early to 102,080 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 101,200 yuan/mt, followed by wide swings, and finally settled at 101,700 yuan/mt, up 0.45%. Trading volume rose to 44,800 lots, and open interest to 195,000 lots, down 213 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions.

SMM Nickel News, March 4: Macro and Market Updates: (1) Trump: After the 15% tariff deadline, we will gradually announce tariffs for different countries; we will raise tariff agreements for certain countries. (2) US Fed—① Kashkari: With the clouds of war looming, we originally expected one interest rate cut in 2026, but now it is uncertain. ② Williams: The US Fed will have to consider the spillover effects of the Iran issue on foreign markets and trading partners. He still believed rates were slightly above the neutral rate. Spot Market: On March 4, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,900 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for domestically mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fluctuated and strengthened in early trading, and closed at 137,410 yuan/mt, up 0.12%. After a consecutive pullback, nickel prices showed initial signs of stabilizing. News that Indonesia may additionally supplement quotas weakened the earlier supply tightens narrative, but cost support remained solid. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was expected to fluctuate around 140,000 yuan/mt.