SMM, March 13: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at around 16,550 yuan/mt. In early trading, lead prices fluctuated downward, hitting a low of 16,195 yuan/mt, and then rebounded slightly on buying support, though the rebound was limited. SHFE lead prices saw wide swings within the 16,280-16,370 yuan/mt range and finally closed at 16,315 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, down 240 yuan/mt, or 1.45%. Recently, factors such as a strong US dollar driven by geopolitical tensions and stagflation concerns have weighed on lead prices. Meanwhile, losses at secondary lead smelters widened, with some enterprises suspending shipments or raising premiums on quotes; premiums for cargoes self-picked up from production sites at primary lead smelters remained firm, and proactive supply-side tightening underpinned spot prices. At present, lead prices are dominated by bears and are expected to remain in the doldrums. Subsequent lead price trends should focus on changes in downstream buying sentiment. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,938/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead prices moved steadily around the daily average line, briefly touching a high of $1,638.5/mt. Entering the European session, bulls and bears were evenly matched, and LME lead prices continued to fluctuate rangebound around the daily average line. Thereafter, bears took the lead, and LME lead fluctuated downward. Around midnight, LME lead prices plunged to a low of $1,890/mt, and finally closed at $1,903/mt, down $32.5/mt, or 1.68%. Trading volume fell to 7,363 lots, while open interest increased by 2,494 lots to 176,000 lots. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,550 yuan/mt. It edged up in early trading, touched a high of 16,565 yuan/mt, and then slipped slightly. Thereafter, amid a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, SHFE lead prices fluctuated rangebound within the 16,385-16,465 yuan/mt range, and closed at 16,395 yuan/mt near the session low. It posted a long bearish candlestick, down 160 yuan/mt, or 0.97%. Trading volume fell to 28,599 lots, while open interest increased by 2,715 lots to 66,396 lots. On the macro front: 1. US GDP for Q4 last year was revised down to only 0.7%, while core PCE inflation rose 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY. 2. Sources said neither the US nor Iran intended to agree to a ceasefire, and the conflict in the Middle East may become prolonged. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu released a video to prove he was still "alive" and said operations against Iran would continue. The Israeli military said its military operations against Iran would last at least another three weeks. Iran's foreign minister said Iran had never requested a ceasefire or negotiations. A senior Iranian commander said there were two conditions for ending the war: Iran must recover all losses and the US must leave the Persian Gulf. 3. International Energy Agency: Record strategic crude oil reserves will be released immediately to the Asian market, while Europe and the US will need to wait until month-end. 4. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki: Preparations have been made to take all necessary exchange-rate measures. 5. State Council executive meeting: It discussed and approved the Work Division Plan for the State Council's Key Tasks in 2026 and studied the establishment of a negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies. 6. The central bank: Aggregate social financing added up to 9.6 trillion yuan in the first two months, 31.62 billion yuan more than the same period last year; M2 balance at the end of February rose 9% YoY. 7. The National Financial Regulatory Administration, together with the People's Bank of China, formulated the Provisions on Disclosure of Comprehensive Financing Costs for Personal Loan Business. 8. China Securities Regulatory Commission: It will closely track changes in international financial markets and the internal and external environment, and strengthen coordinated monitoring of at home and abroad and futures and spot markets. 9. China-US economic and trade consultations were held in France from March 14 to March 17. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums. Suppliers quoted in line with market conditions. In Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, suppliers mostly waited for delivery, with few quotations. Meanwhile, quotations for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site diverged. Suppliers in the north actively made shipments at discounts, while in south China, due to limited circulating cargoes, some suppliers held prices firm and shipped at premiums. Mainstream producing areas were quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price. In addition, secondary lead smelters were mostly cutting or suspending production due to losses, leaving fewer circulating cargoes in the market. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-25 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises bought the dip on demand, and due to the price difference between primary lead and secondary lead, rigid demand from downstream enterprises was more inclined toward primary lead. Inventory: As of March 13, LME lead registered warrants fell 0.18% to 279,125 mt. As of March 12, total SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions continued to increase. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Current lead prices were still generally moving in a weak rangebound pattern, lacking a clear one-way trend. The primary lead spot market showed a clear north-south divergence, with northern suppliers shipping at discounts and some southern cargoes staying tight, supporting firm offers. Secondary lead smelters cut or suspended production due to losses, and tighter circulating cargoes provided some price support, but downstream procurement remained cautious and mainly driven by rigid demand, with weak purchase willingness. As the price spread between primary lead and secondary lead narrowed, some demand shifted to primary lead, while transactions in secondary lead remained sluggish. Overall, lead prices are unlikely to see a notable rebound in the short term and will likely maintain rangebound consolidation. Further attention should be paid to inventory changes and smelter production conditions.

SMM News, March 16: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,938/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead prices moved steadily around the daily average line, briefly touching a high of $1,638.5/mt. Entering the European session, bulls and bears were evenly matched, and LME lead continued to fluctuate rangebound around the daily average line. Later, bears took the lead, sending LME lead fluctuating downward. Around midnight, LME lead prices plunged to a low of $1,890/mt before finally closing at $1,903/mt, down $32.5/mt, or 1.68%. Trading volume fell to 7,363 lots, while open interest increased by 2,494 lots to 176,000 lots. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,550 yuan/mt. It edged up at the beginning of the session, then retreated slightly after touching a high of 16,565 yuan/mt. Thereafter, amid a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, SHFE lead fluctuated rangebound in the 16,385-16,465 yuan/mt range, and closed near the session low at 16,395 yuan/mt. It posted a long lower-shadow bearish candlestick, down 160 yuan/mt, or 0.97%. Trading volume fell to 28,599 lots, while open interest increased by 2,715 lots to 66,396 lots. At present, lead prices remained mainly in the doldrums overall, lacking a clear unilateral trend. In the primary lead spot market, divergence between north and south China was evident: cargoes in north China were shipped at discounts, while some supply in south China was tight, prompting sellers to hold prices firm. Secondary lead smelters cut or halted production due to losses, and the tightening of circulating supply provided some support to prices. However, downstream procurement remained cautious and was mainly driven by rigid demand, with weak purchase willingness. As the price spread between primary lead and secondary lead narrowed, part of demand shifted to primary lead, and secondary lead transactions were sluggish. Overall, lead prices were unlikely to see a marked rebound in the short term and would likely remain rangebound, with follow-up attention needed on inventory changes and smelter production conditions.

SMM, March 16: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract opened higher and extended gains today, while market transactions were relatively sluggish. Futures later fell, and as buying sentiment strengthened and price acceptance improved, transaction prices in the spot market moved higher. Today’s mainstream quotations and transaction prices were mainly concentrated between a discount of 10 yuan/mt and the average price. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.07, down 0.26 WoW; the purchase sentiment index was 2.66, up 0.11 WoW. Today, aluminum prices continued to edge lower from last Friday, and with inventory remaining high, traders in the central China market showed limited bullish sentiment. Overall purchase volumes recovered somewhat from the previous two trading days. As futures prices declined, market premiums showed a continued upward trend. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were mainly concentrated between a discount of 10 yuan to the central China price and a premium of 20 yuan to the central China price, and moved higher throughout the session. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.58, down 0.09 WoW; the purchase sentiment index was 2.36, up 0.01 WoW. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 18,500 mt WoW today, with all three regions showing inventory buildup. In the short term, following the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market will officially quote against the 2604 contract. In terms of market structure, the Contango price spread between the 2604 and 2605 contracts was in the range of 110 yuan/mt to 60 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, and with the import window wide open, expectations for continued inflows of cargo from outside China strengthened, putting spot premiums under pressure. Demand side, although copper prices pulled back again below the 100,000 yuan/mt mark, procurement enthusiasm among downstream enterprises did not improve significantly. Intraday trading was light on both buying and selling sides, and at current price levels, end-users still maintained wait-and-see sentiment toward the subsequent price trend, with procurement turning cautious. Supply side, SMM recorded social inventory at 547,300 mt, down 26,600 mt from the previous period, but the absolute level remained high. Coupled with stronger import expectations, overall supply pressure still persisted. Overall, with the contract rollover completed and import expectations strengthening, Shanghai spot copper is expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, and discounts may widen further.

After a strong start, the price of gold slipped twice to around $5,060 during this trading week. Now, it appears that gold prices might manage to stay just above $5,100 heading into the weekend, continuing the persistent sideways movement of the past five weeks.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, as the Two Sessions ended, coke producers previously subject to production restrictions gradually resumed production. With losses per mt of coke remaining within an acceptable range, production enthusiasm was moderate, and coke supply increased steadily. On the demand side, as the country's important meetings ended, steel mills previously subject to production restrictions were expected to resume production, leading to some increase in coke demand. However, as no clearly positive policies emerged from the Two Sessions, market wait-and-see sentiment remained strong, and steel mills maintained a cautious attitude toward coke, mainly purchasing as needed. In summary, the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: The Tin Market Weakened After Fluctuating at Highs, Under Short-Term Pressure Amid Intertwined Bullish and Bearish Factors]

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $12,871/mt. It hit a high of $12,942/mt amid wide swings early in the session, after which the center of copper prices gradually moved lower and fell to $12,733/mt near the close, finally settling at $12,735.5/mt, down 1.64%. Trading volume reached 22,600 lots, and open interest stood at 307,000 lots, an increase of 3,144 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears adding positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,520 yuan/mt and climbed to 100,760 yuan/mt early in the session. Afterwards, the center of copper prices fluctuated downward and touched a low of 99,710 yuan/mt near the close, with a decline of 0.86%. Trading volume reached 38,900 lots, and open interest stood at 190,000 lots, a decrease of 930 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bulls reducing positions.

SMM Nickel News, March 16: Macro and Market News: (1) The financial statistics report for February released by the central bank showed that at month-end February, broad money (M2) balance stood at 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9% YoY; cumulative aggregate social financing for the first two months was 9.6 trillion yuan, 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; new RMB loans in the first two months increased by 5.61 trillion yuan; the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits was 345.72 trillion yuan, up 8.8% YoY; and the month-end RMB deposit balance was 337.94 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY. (2) The central bank said in its tender announcement for open-market outright reverse repo operations that on March 16, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through a fixed-quantity, interest-rate bidding, and multiple-price allocation method, with a tenor of six months (182 days). Spot Market: On March 16, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 2,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,700 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream branded electrodeposited nickel was at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fell sharply intraday and closed the morning session at 135,990 yuan/mt, down 1.83%. Tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, intensifying inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, creating clear pressure on nickel prices. Despite significant macro pressure, the industry-level support logic has not changed, and market concerns over tightening supply of nickel intermediate products remain. Short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.