[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Affected by Macro Disturbances, LME Zinc Maintained Wide Swings] LME zinc opened at $3,316/mt. In early trading, LME zinc fluctuated upward and touched a high of $3,331.50/mt, after which prices fell rapidly. It then rose and recovered the losses, but during European trading hours, as bears reduced open interest, LME zinc quickly dipped to $3,284/mt. In the night session, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, LME zinc gradually recouped the losses and returned to fluctuate above the average price line, finally closing down at $3,314.50/mt, down $1/mt, or 0.03%. Trading volume decreased to 82,887 lots, and open interest increased by 527 lots to 217,000 lots.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,360 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc briefly touched a high of 24,390 yuan/mt, then quickly fell to a low of 24,205 yuan/mt. Thereafter, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, SHFE zinc fluctuated rangebound and finally closed down at 24,240 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt, or 0.25%. Trading volume decreased to 35,766 lots, while open interest increased by 1,359 lots to 74,085 lots.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Sticky US Inflation Persisted, and the Center of LME Zinc Moved Lower] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,313/mt. In early trading, LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend and touched a high of $3,352/mt. Entering the European trading session, LME zinc quickly fell to a low of $3,296.5/mt. In the night session, LME zinc gradually recovered its losses and fluctuated upward, hovering near the daily average line, before closing down at $3,315.5/mt, down $26.5/mt, or 0.79%. Trading volume decreased to 91,642 lots, and open interest increased by 494 lots to 217,000 lots.

[Repeated Macro Sentiment Led to Wide Swings in SHFE Zinc]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,370 yuan/mt. SHFE zinc briefly rose in early trading to a high of 24,460 yuan/mt, after which bulls reduced their open interest, and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward with its center moving lower, eventually closing down at 24,300 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt, or 0.35%. Trading volume increased to 109,000 lots, while open interest fell by 1,494 lots to 74,220 lots.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,937.5/mt. During the Asian session, it moved sideways around the intraday moving average. After entering the European session, it rose to a high of $1,945.5/mt, then fluctuated rangebound at high levels before pulling back to a low of $1,932/mt. Before the close, it edged up slightly to recover part of the losses, and finally closed at $1,935.5/mt, down $3/mt, or 0.15%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,605 yuan/mt. After dipping to 16,550 yuan/mt in early trading, it rebounded and consolidated near the intraday moving average, finally closing at 16,595 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous day, or 0.21%. On the macro front: The fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in Beijing. The meeting voted to adopt the resolution on the government work report and reviewed and approved the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, charting the course for economic and social development over the next five years. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that although the February nonfarm payrolls report released last week came in weaker than expected, the mild pullback in initial jobless claims indicated that the scale of corporate layoffs remained limited, with employers still more inclined to retain workers. This eased market concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labour market. After the data release, major US stock indexes maintained their declines, while energy stocks were among the few sectors that rose due to a sharp increase in oil prices. Spot Fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. The center of SHFE lead moved further lower, and suppliers shipped in line with market conditions. In addition, with delivery approaching, some suppliers became less willing to sell, and quotations appeared somewhat firmer, with significantly fewer transactions at large discounts. Among them, ex-factory quotations in major primary lead producing areas were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, circulation of spot cargo in the secondary lead market was limited, and secondary refined lead was quoted ex-factory around parity against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased under long-term contracts, with limited spot order replenishment, while some purchased as needed. Trading in the spot market was subdued on both sides. Inventory: As of March 12, LME lead inventory fell by 375 mt to 284,500 mt; as of March 12, SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions continued its accumulation trend. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Approaching the weekend, operating rates at primary lead smelters in Hunan gradually resumed, though they had not yet returned to full production, and primary lead quotations in Hunan and Guangdong remained relatively firm. As the delivery date of the SHFE lead 2603 contract approached, suppliers were shifting inventory to delivery warehouses one after another, and social inventory of lead ingots continued to become more visible. With more imported lead arriving at ports and China refined lead supply gradually recovering, spot cargo in the spot market was relatively ample. Downstream enterprises had more procurement options, actively negotiated prices, and bought the dip. In the short term, the accumulation trend in social inventory of lead ingots is expected to be difficult to reverse, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened lower with a gap at 24,245 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc fluctuated and dipped to 24,095 yuan/mt. Subsequently, as bears reduced open interest, SHFE zinc gradually rose above the daily average line, touched a high of 24,385 yuan/mt near the close, and finally closed down at 24,375 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt, or 0.04%. Trading volume decreased to 54,485 lots, and open interest increased by 94 lots to 74,314 lots.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,044/mt. It touched a high of $13,063.5/mt in early trading, then the center moved lower to a low of $12,929/mt, and finally closed at $12,948.5/mt, down 0.77%. Trading volume came in at 17,000 lots, down 235 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 304,000 lots, up 279 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting an increase in bears' positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,240 yuan/mt. It touched a high of 101,240 yuan/mt at the open, then the center moved lower to a low of 100,560 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,860 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. Trading volume came in at 26,000 lots, down 62,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 189,000 lots, down 3,320 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting a reduction in bulls' positions overall.

Refined Cobalt: This week, spot refined cobalt fluctuated rangebound around 430,000 yuan/mt. On the supply side, mainstream smelters slightly lowered ex-factory prices, while traders' spot-futures price spread remained stable: regular brands were at discounts of 2,000 yuan/mt to parity, and high-end brands at premiums of 5,000–8,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, cost pass-through downstream remained sluggish, with market participants mainly staying on the sidelines. Only sporadic rigid-demand restocking emerged, and transactions had yet to gain volume. Fundamentally, the arrival period for cobalt intermediate products remained unclear, and the structural tightness in raw materials was unchanged, leaving support at the bottom still in place. Looking ahead, as restocking demand is gradually released, refined cobalt prices are still expected to have upside room. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to hold steady. On the supply side, miners' export progress was slow, holders temporarily held back offers, and spot cargo available for circulation was scarce. On the demand side, raw material shortages at smelters worsened. Although purchase willingness remained, both buyers and sellers stayed cautious due to unstable supply and unclear downstream orders, and the market continued to see "offers but no trades." Overall, export delays cast doubt on the timing of bulk arrivals, and the structural tightness in raw materials in China may worsen further; once downstream orders are finalized and procurement restarts, intermediate product prices are still expected to have upward momentum. Going forward, attention should be paid to export progress in the DRC and the pace of demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, spot cobalt sulphate prices held steady. On the supply side, supported by tight raw materials, most smelters kept offers firm in the 95,000–98,000 yuan/mt range; small smelters and traders under capital pressure had already completed cashing out from last week to early this week, and low-price offers in the market narrowed. On the demand side, uncertainty over downstream orders persisted, with most enterprises remaining on the sidelines. Post-holiday stockpiling willingness had yet to start, with only sporadic rigid-demand restocking and priority given to lower-priced cargoes. In the short term, the market remained in a period of social inventory digestion, with rangebound adjustments dominating; however, the raw material supply bottleneck in the DRC remained unresolved, domestic supply tightened periodically, and cost support still existed. After low-priced inventory is depleted, prices are expected to resume their rise.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Alloy Prices Continued to Hover at Highs, While Market Demand Was Significantly Suppressed] This week, secondary aluminum alloy prices continued to rise, but the pace of demand follow-up was relatively slow. In the short term, raw material costs remained at high levels, providing strong support for ADC12 prices; however, if prices continue to rise, the suppressive effect of high prices on demand will become increasingly evident. Meanwhile, as operating rates gradually recover, there are also expectations of a mild increase on the supply side. ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term. Going forward, it is recommended to focus on the pace of downstream order release, the pressure on the market from the supply recovery process, and the impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices.

SMM Nickel, March 12: Macro and Market News: (1) US February CPI rose 2.4% year on year, and core CPI rose 2.5% year on year, in line with market expectations. (2) Trump said Iran had "nothing left to strike," and the war would end soon. The Iranian president proposed three necessary conditions for ending the war: recognizing Iran's legitimate rights, paying war reparations, and providing firm guarantees from the international community to prevent future acts of aggression. Spot Market: On March 12, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 1,200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,750 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) surged in the night session, but fell sharply during the morning session, closing the morning session at 137,400 yuan/mt, up 0.08%. On the macro front, there were signs that the risk-off sentiment stemming from geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East was easing in the short term. Supply side, the core driver remained Indonesia's unchanged policy of tightening nickel ore supply. In the short term, the price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt range.