[Zinc Fundamental Trading Logic Amid the Middle East Conflict: Risk Identification and Opportunity Capture] Global geopolitical conflicts have continued unabated, and news of the recent Middle East conflict has emerged frequently. What impact will this have on the zinc industry? This article provides an analysis from both fundamental and market perspectives:

SMM News, March 10: Dealers in Hunan reported that end-use consumption in the e-bike lead-acid battery market was average. After retailers restocked following the holiday, battery sales pulled back somewhat. Current battery inventory is maintained at around half a month, and the wholesale price of the main 48V20Ah model is 400 yuan/set. Manufacturers in Jiangxi reported that demand in the electric lead-acid battery market improved in March. In addition, dealers restocked as usual after the holiday, and finished product orders rebounded significantly compared with February. At present, the operating rate of factory production lines is around 80, with raw material lead mainly procured through long-term contracts. Manufacturers in Zhejiang reported that replacement demand in the electric lead-acid battery market improved relatively, with dealers making purchases based on demand. The current factory operating rate has recovered to above 80. In addition, lead prices lacked upward momentum, and spot supply in circulation was ample, so recent procurement has basically been on a buy-as-needed basis.

BC copper, the most-traded 2604 contract, opened at 88,740 yuan/mt, fluctuated rangebound early in the session and bottomed at 88,620 yuan/mt. The center of copper prices then gradually moved higher, and after the daytime open it continued to fluctuate upward, testing 90,460 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 90,110 yuan/mt, up 1.90%. Open interest fell to 5,829 lots, down 172 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume rose to 4,634 lots, indicating bears reduced positions. On the macro front, Trump claimed the Iran war was basically over and mentioned considering control of the Strait of Hormuz. Market concerns over geopolitical conflicts eased, driving international oil prices to retreat from highs; the US dollar index was under pressure, which was bullish for copper prices. Fundamentals, supply side saw sustained increases in availability, with ample replenishment from both domestic and imported sources; demand side, affected by rising copper prices, downstream purchasing sentiment was slightly restrained, and the pace of release in rigid demand slowed somewhat. SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 101,520 yuan/mt. Based on BC copper 2604 at 90,110 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 101,824 yuan/mt, and the price spread between SHFE copper 2604 and BC copper was -304. The price spread remained in backwardation and widened markedly versus the previous day.

[SMM Chrome Daily Commentary: Quotes Rose Steadily, Strong Support at the Bottom] News on March 10, 2026: Both ferrochrome and chrome ore quotes rose slightly……

As of March 10, the operating rate of 50 electric furnace steel mills nationwide mainly producing construction materials was 35.38%, up 24.62% WoW from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 29.34%, up 22.46% WoW; daily average production of construction materials was 65,300 mt, up 50,000 mt WoW.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Prices Pull Back as Aluminum Scrap Holders Are Reluctant to Sell; Overall Market Trading Remains Muted] Yesterday, the SMM ADC12 price rose by 500 yuan/mt, with the center of market quotations moving up markedly. Most producers’ price adjustments were concentrated in the 500–600 yuan/mt range. Recently, raw material prices have continued to strengthen, and the cost side has risen quickly, providing a clear lift to enterprise quotations. However, downstream demand has been relatively steady. Most enterprises reported that orders and inquiry activity were generally average, and downstream purchasing remains mainly restocking on an as-needed basis. Supported by cost-driven momentum and market expectations, enterprises have shown a clear willingness to raise prices. In the short term, against the backdrop of cost support and mild supply release, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well. The medium-term trend will still depend on the recovery of end-use consumption. If die-casting industry orders increase significantly, the price center is expected to move up further; if demand recovery falls short of expectations, coupled with a continued rise in operating rates on the supply side, prices will shift from elevated levels into rangebound consolidation.

[SMM Daily Review: The High-Grade NPI Market Was Briefly Under Pressure, While the Cost-Support Logic Remained Unchanged] News on March 10: SMM’s upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.9, up 0.02 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.4, up 0.03 MoM.

DCE iron ore futures fell before rising, stabilizing in the afternoon session. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 784 yuan/mt, up 0.26% from the previous session. Meanwhile, spot prices fell 2–5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders showed average enthusiasm in quoting prices, and steel mills’ purchases were mainly for rigid demand. Overall, the spot market saw scant transactions. According to SMM survey tracking, blast furnace maintenance intensity continued to increase this week, with the impacted volume up 102,100 mt WoW to 1.9892 million mt. Iron ore demand was currently at a relatively low level. As blast furnaces that underwent earlier maintenance resumed production in a concentrated manner, hot metal production was expected to rebound next week, and iron ore demand was likely to improve. On the macro front, the war in the Middle East remained in a stalemate. Surging crude oil prices pushed up the ocean freight rate and the cost of imported iron ore, providing cost support for ore prices. However, due to limited actual transactions, upward momentum showed signs of weakening. Therefore, in the short term, ore prices might mainly see sideways movement within a range.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Easing Geopolitical Sentiment Supports Base Metals; SS Futures Hold Up Well and Fluctuate Upward SMM News on March 10: SS futures showed a hold-up-well, rangebound pattern. US President Trump said regarding the situation related to Iran that “the war is about to end,” which supported base metals futures and led to signs of strengthening. SS futures also rose in tandem, closing at 14,265 yuan/mt by the midday close. In the spot market, driven by stronger SS futures, traders turned more optimistic and confidence improved, with fewer low-priced supplies in the market. Downstream end-users still mainly made just-in-time procurement, and overall transactions remained steady. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated downward. At 10:15 a.m., SS2604 was quoted at 14,310 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums for 304/2B were in the 210-410 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils were generally stable; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi was stable and the average price in Foshan was stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi were quoted stable; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were stable. As the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April” begins, the stainless steel market is entering a window for demand recovery. Downstream demand is gradually returning as market participants resume work and resume production after the Chinese New Year holiday, but although transactions improved compared with the earlier period, the bustling peak-season momentum has yet to emerge. End-user procurement remains mainly just-in-time, and stockpiling willingness is relatively low. On the futures side, driven by risk aversion triggered by geopolitical conflicts...

SMM News, March 10: Today, Guangdong spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 120 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 110 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong spot #1 copper cathode was 101,335 yuan/mt, up 1,910 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,190 yuan/mt, up 1,925 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Today, Guangdong inventory ended a three-day decline and increased slightly, mainly due to higher arrivals. Although both inventory and prices rose, the price spread between futures contracts widened versus yesterday, which instead increased suppliers’ reluctance to sell; on the downstream side, after the sharp rise in copper prices, restocking enthusiasm fell versus yesterday, and overall trading was weaker than yesterday. Today, procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.62, down 0.13 from the previous trading day, and shipment sentiment was 3.12, down 0.12 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried by logging into the database). Overall, copper prices rose, but the widening price spread between futures contracts led suppliers to hold back sales; spot premiums increased, but overall trading was weaker than yesterday.