In early March 2026, Qatalum—the 648,000-tonne-per-year primary aluminum smelter in Qatar, a 50/50 joint venture between Norsk Hydro and Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Company initiated a controlled shutdown of production. The decision, effective from March 3, followed a warning from gas supplier QatarEnergy that natural gas deliveries would be fully suspended due to disruptions linked to the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, including attacks on regional energy infrastructure.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Bulls Lost Momentum at High Levels, Aluminum Alloy Futures Prices Should Watch Lower Support] Last Friday, quotations in the secondary aluminum alloy market were mainly stable. Before noon, fluctuations in futures narrowed, enterprises' willingness to adjust prices weakened significantly, and most producers chose to hold prices steady and wait on the sidelines. In the afternoon, as futures fluctuated downward, some producers began to lower quotations by 100 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream players still mainly made just-in-time procurement, but amid the pullback in aluminum prices and the approach of the weekend, some enterprises showed slightly stronger purchasing interest, and market transactions improved somewhat from the previous day.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Geopolitical Premiums Persist, Aluminum Prices Remained Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and was expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China, meanwhile, was in a phase of high inventory plus weak spot fundamentals, with upward momentum clearly weaker than outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio was expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices were expected to remain fluctuating at highs in the short term.

SMM, March 16: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract opened higher and extended gains today, while market transactions were relatively sluggish. Futures later fell, and as buying sentiment strengthened and price acceptance improved, transaction prices in the spot market moved higher. Today’s mainstream quotations and transaction prices were mainly concentrated between a discount of 10 yuan/mt and the average price. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.07, down 0.26 WoW; the purchase sentiment index was 2.66, up 0.11 WoW. Today, aluminum prices continued to edge lower from last Friday, and with inventory remaining high, traders in the central China market showed limited bullish sentiment. Overall purchase volumes recovered somewhat from the previous two trading days. As futures prices declined, market premiums showed a continued upward trend. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were mainly concentrated between a discount of 10 yuan to the central China price and a premium of 20 yuan to the central China price, and moved higher throughout the session. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.58, down 0.09 WoW; the purchase sentiment index was 2.36, up 0.01 WoW. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 18,500 mt WoW today, with all three regions showing inventory buildup. In the short term, following the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

[SMM Analysis: February Operating Rate of Primary Aluminum Billets Hit a Nearly Four-Year Low, Expected to Recover to Peak-Season Levels Seen in the Same Period in Previous Years in March] According to SMM statistics, the operating rate of aluminum billets in February fell sharply by 9.2 percentage points MoM to 41.4%, down 7.7 percentage points YoY. After aluminum prices surged to a record high at the end of January, they saw a sharp correction ....

SMM News, March 16: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,938/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead prices moved steadily around the daily average line, briefly touching a high of $1,638.5/mt. Entering the European session, bulls and bears were evenly matched, and LME lead continued to fluctuate rangebound around the daily average line. Later, bears took the lead, sending LME lead fluctuating downward. Around midnight, LME lead prices plunged to a low of $1,890/mt before finally closing at $1,903/mt, down $32.5/mt, or 1.68%. Trading volume fell to 7,363 lots, while open interest increased by 2,494 lots to 176,000 lots. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,550 yuan/mt. It edged up at the beginning of the session, then retreated slightly after touching a high of 16,565 yuan/mt. Thereafter, amid a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, SHFE lead fluctuated rangebound in the 16,385-16,465 yuan/mt range, and closed near the session low at 16,395 yuan/mt. It posted a long lower-shadow bearish candlestick, down 160 yuan/mt, or 0.97%. Trading volume fell to 28,599 lots, while open interest increased by 2,715 lots to 66,396 lots. At present, lead prices remained mainly in the doldrums overall, lacking a clear unilateral trend. In the primary lead spot market, divergence between north and south China was evident: cargoes in north China were shipped at discounts, while some supply in south China was tight, prompting sellers to hold prices firm. Secondary lead smelters cut or halted production due to losses, and the tightening of circulating supply provided some support to prices. However, downstream procurement remained cautious and was mainly driven by rigid demand, with weak purchase willingness. As the price spread between primary lead and secondary lead narrowed, part of demand shifted to primary lead, and secondary lead transactions were sluggish. Overall, lead prices were unlikely to see a marked rebound in the short term and would likely remain rangebound, with follow-up attention needed on inventory changes and smelter production conditions.

Futures: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,938/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead prices moved steadily around the daily average line, briefly touching a high of $1,638.5/mt. Entering the European session, bulls and bears were evenly matched, and LME lead prices continued to fluctuate rangebound around the daily average line. Thereafter, bears took the lead, and LME lead fluctuated downward. Around midnight, LME lead prices plunged to a low of $1,890/mt, and finally closed at $1,903/mt, down $32.5/mt, or 1.68%. Trading volume fell to 7,363 lots, while open interest increased by 2,494 lots to 176,000 lots. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,550 yuan/mt. It edged up in early trading, touched a high of 16,565 yuan/mt, and then slipped slightly. Thereafter, amid a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, SHFE lead prices fluctuated rangebound within the 16,385-16,465 yuan/mt range, and closed at 16,395 yuan/mt near the session low. It posted a long bearish candlestick, down 160 yuan/mt, or 0.97%. Trading volume fell to 28,599 lots, while open interest increased by 2,715 lots to 66,396 lots. On the macro front: 1. US GDP for Q4 last year was revised down to only 0.7%, while core PCE inflation rose 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY. 2. Sources said neither the US nor Iran intended to agree to a ceasefire, and the conflict in the Middle East may become prolonged. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu released a video to prove he was still "alive" and said operations against Iran would continue. The Israeli military said its military operations against Iran would last at least another three weeks. Iran's foreign minister said Iran had never requested a ceasefire or negotiations. A senior Iranian commander said there were two conditions for ending the war: Iran must recover all losses and the US must leave the Persian Gulf. 3. International Energy Agency: Record strategic crude oil reserves will be released immediately to the Asian market, while Europe and the US will need to wait until month-end. 4. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki: Preparations have been made to take all necessary exchange-rate measures. 5. State Council executive meeting: It discussed and approved the Work Division Plan for the State Council's Key Tasks in 2026 and studied the establishment of a negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies. 6. The central bank: Aggregate social financing added up to 9.6 trillion yuan in the first two months, 31.62 billion yuan more than the same period last year; M2 balance at the end of February rose 9% YoY. 7. The National Financial Regulatory Administration, together with the People's Bank of China, formulated the Provisions on Disclosure of Comprehensive Financing Costs for Personal Loan Business. 8. China Securities Regulatory Commission: It will closely track changes in international financial markets and the internal and external environment, and strengthen coordinated monitoring of at home and abroad and futures and spot markets. 9. China-US economic and trade consultations were held in France from March 14 to March 17. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums. Suppliers quoted in line with market conditions. In Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, suppliers mostly waited for delivery, with few quotations. Meanwhile, quotations for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site diverged. Suppliers in the north actively made shipments at discounts, while in south China, due to limited circulating cargoes, some suppliers held prices firm and shipped at premiums. Mainstream producing areas were quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price. In addition, secondary lead smelters were mostly cutting or suspending production due to losses, leaving fewer circulating cargoes in the market. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-25 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises bought the dip on demand, and due to the price difference between primary lead and secondary lead, rigid demand from downstream enterprises was more inclined toward primary lead. Inventory: As of March 13, LME lead registered warrants fell 0.18% to 279,125 mt. As of March 12, total SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions continued to increase. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Current lead prices were still generally moving in a weak rangebound pattern, lacking a clear one-way trend. The primary lead spot market showed a clear north-south divergence, with northern suppliers shipping at discounts and some southern cargoes staying tight, supporting firm offers. Secondary lead smelters cut or suspended production due to losses, and tighter circulating cargoes provided some price support, but downstream procurement remained cautious and mainly driven by rigid demand, with weak purchase willingness. As the price spread between primary lead and secondary lead narrowed, some demand shifted to primary lead, while transactions in secondary lead remained sluggish. Overall, lead prices are unlikely to see a notable rebound in the short term and will likely maintain rangebound consolidation. Further attention should be paid to inventory changes and smelter production conditions.

SMM, March 13: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at around 16,550 yuan/mt. In early trading, lead prices fluctuated downward, hitting a low of 16,195 yuan/mt, and then rebounded slightly on buying support, though the rebound was limited. SHFE lead prices saw wide swings within the 16,280-16,370 yuan/mt range and finally closed at 16,315 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, down 240 yuan/mt, or 1.45%. Recently, factors such as a strong US dollar driven by geopolitical tensions and stagflation concerns have weighed on lead prices. Meanwhile, losses at secondary lead smelters widened, with some enterprises suspending shipments or raising premiums on quotes; premiums for cargoes self-picked up from production sites at primary lead smelters remained firm, and proactive supply-side tightening underpinned spot prices. At present, lead prices are dominated by bears and are expected to remain in the doldrums. Subsequent lead price trends should focus on changes in downstream buying sentiment. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

The 2026 SMM (3rd) Global Renewable Metal Industry Chain Summit & Battery Recycling Forum will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from May 11–12, 2026. The summit aims to bring together leading global enterprises, research institutions, industry experts, and policymakers in the fields of renewable metals and battery recycling.

Overall, supply in China’s petroleum coke market continued to tighten, while downstream demand remained generally stable with support, and supply and demand fundamentals provided two-way support to the market. Coupled with recent fluctuations in crude oil prices and intensified cost-side bargaining, SMM expected that in the short term, the petroleum coke market would mainly remain in consolidation, with prices of different categories continuing to diverge.