At the start of this week, US nonfarm payrolls for February unexpectedly declined, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts rebounded somewhat, briefly boosting copper prices. Trump then signaled that tensions between the US and Iran might ease, sending oil prices lower and the US dollar weaker, which triggered a phased rebound in copper prices. However, after oil tankers in the Gulf region came under attack and Iran stated that it would continue to close the Strait of Hormuz, tensions in the Middle East escalated again. Rising crude oil prices lifted safe-haven sentiment, and the stronger US dollar index weighed on copper prices. At the same time, US February CPI came in line with expectations, and market bets on interest rate cuts within the year were scaled back markedly, weakening expectations for macro liquidity. In terms of positioning, bulls continued to reduce positions, and capital turned more cautious. Overall, macro uncertainty and repeated shifts in interest rate cut expectations remain intertwined, and copper prices are still likely to fluctuate rangebound in the short term. Fundamentals side, TC in the copper concentrates market was still falling. Recent mine tender prices pointed to a median of -$60/mt. For copper cathode, the inventory buildup showed a turning point, and the import window opened slightly. According to SMM, downstream operating activity was more active than expected, with active pricing below the copper price range of 100,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic is expected to remain unchanged, and geopolitical tensions are still expected to provide strong support to the US dollar, leaving significant short-term resistance for copper prices. However, fundamentals are supporting copper prices, which are expected to remain fluctuating near the range in the short term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $12,800/mt and $13,200/mt, and SHFE copper between 99,000 yuan/mt and 101,000 yuan/mt. In the spot market, as delivery approaches, spot market trading logic will fluctuate with the price spread between futures contracts and funding costs, and is expected to gradually rise next week. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to range from a discount of 180 yuan/mt to a discount of 80 yuan/mt.

[SHFE/LME Price Ratio Pulled Back and Fluctuated Around 7.3]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio pulled back and fluctuated around 7.3, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Outside China, easing inflation concerns boosted a rebound in zinc prices; subsequently, investors stayed cautious about an escalation of the Middle East conflict, while a stronger US dollar, together with US February CPI coming in line with expectations and still-sticky inflation, drove LME zinc to fluctuate lower.

[Supply Disruptions Persist, Imported TCs Continued to Decline]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly TC of SMM Zn50 domestic ore was unchanged at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index fell $4.13/dmt MoM to $11.25/dmt...

[Macro Disturbances Coupled With Rising China Inventory Weighed on the Centers of Both SHFE and LME This Week] At the beginning of the week, Trump stated that the conflict in Iran was basically over, and the US dollar index fell sharply, pushing the center of LME zinc higher; subsequently, market uncertainty intensified, some funds exited, and LME zinc came under pressure......

SMM News, March 6: This week, LME lead opened at $1,940/mt. Early in the session, affected by the rapid fading of geopolitical safe-haven sentiment and broad weakness across the nonferrous metals sector, lead prices fluctuated downward and once fell to $1,927.5/mt. Subsequently, market sentiment somewhat recovered, and lead prices fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,949/mt. As bullish momentum weakened, prices turned weaker again and finally closed at $1,933/mt, down $13/mt from the beginning of the week, a decline of about 0.67%. This week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at around 16,780 yuan/mt, and early-session lead prices climbed to 16,815 yuan/mt. Subsequently, affected by both weak supply and weak demand in the spot market, prices fluctuated downward. During the session, lead prices rebounded slightly, but bearish strength remained strong, and the price center moved lower again. Near the close, after consolidating at lows, lead prices fell to 16,550 yuan/mt and finally closed at 16,555 yuan/mt, down about 220 yuan/mt from the beginning of the week, a decline of about 1.31%. 》Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

This week, China’s domestic manganese-based battery materials market has shown a differentiated operation trend. The price of battery-grade manganese tetroxide has slightly declined, the price of electrolytic manganese dioxide has slightly increased, and lithium manganate has maintained a weak balance of supply and demand.

In contrast to the typical price declines seen during the traditional spring festival low season from January to February in previous years, China’s domestic manganese sulfate market has recently staged an independent rally of “strong performance amid the off-season”, with prices rising steadily along the way.

This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China strengthened to 10,400-10,500 yuan/mt; prices of stainless steel scrap off-cuts of the same specification in Foshan also rose, with the price range at 10,000-10,300 yuan/mt. From the raw material cost perspective, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely with stainless steel scrap was about 14,364.47 yuan/mt, while the cost of producing it entirely with high-grade NPI was 14,640.04 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices strengthened and moved higher, mainly driven by the combined effects of linkage with furnace charge prices, cost-effectiveness advantages, and demand support. Stainless steel finished product prices have remained generally stable recently and struggled to rise; however, high-grade NPI prices still held firm, and high-carbon ferrochrome prices also moved higher in tandem recently. Following the trend of other furnace charge materials, stainless steel scrap also showed an upward trend. Stainless steel planned production for March is expected to rise significantly, boosting procurement demand for stainless steel scrap; meanwhile, supported by nickel ore and chrome ore, the pattern of high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome prices holding up well is unlikely to change, further driving stainless steel scrap prices higher. In addition, although the cost-effectiveness advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI has narrowed somewhat, it still retains a considerable advantage at present, providing strong support for stainless steel scrap prices and reinforcing bullish market sentiment. However, it should be noted that the current recovery in downstream demand remains limited, and stainless steel social inventory is at a relatively high level. Stainless steel mills are facing considerable shipment pressure, causing stainless steel finished product prices to meet resistance in moving higher and in turn placing some constraints on further gains in stainless steel scrap prices. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week showed a pattern of "prices moving higher, raw material support, and demand under pressure." Although gains in finished product prices were capped by their struggle to rise, supported by stronger demand, firmer substitute raw materials, and cost-effectiveness advantages, stainless steel scrap prices are expected to remain generally stable with slight rise in the period ahead.

[Weak Spot Demand During the Week, Wider Spot Discounts]: This week, spot discounts in Ningbo widened, with the weekly average price down 20 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday this week, spot prices in Ningbo against the 2604 contract were at a discount of 100 yuan/mt and at a premium of 20 yuan/mt against Shanghai, with the premium against Shanghai fluctuating during the week..

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,044/mt. It touched a high of $13,063.5/mt in early trading, then the center moved lower to a low of $12,929/mt, and finally closed at $12,948.5/mt, down 0.77%. Trading volume came in at 17,000 lots, down 235 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 304,000 lots, up 279 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting an increase in bears' positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,240 yuan/mt. It touched a high of 101,240 yuan/mt at the open, then the center moved lower to a low of 100,560 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,860 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. Trading volume came in at 26,000 lots, down 62,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 189,000 lots, down 3,320 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting a reduction in bulls' positions overall.