[SMM Aluminum Flash News] Recently, the Ecological Environment Branch of the Guangyuan Economic Development Zone released the first public notice for public participation in the environmental impact assessment of the “Guangyuan Hongchangsheng Aluminum Co., Ltd. 115,000 mt Aluminum Energy-Saving, Carbon-Reduction Upgrade and Renovation Project.” The project will adopt SY400 prebaked anode electrolysis cells and supporting technologies to upgrade and renovate the existing 115,000 mt 200 kA electrolysis cell production line.

SMM March 2nd Report: On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a large-scale military strike on Iran, which promptly announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated sharply and fell into sustained turmoil. As a critical "chokepoint" for global energy transportation, the Strait of Hormuz handles about 30% of global seaborne oil trade. Its blockade directly led to a severe physical disruption in the global energy supply chain, causing international oil prices to surge dramatically, with shipping costs and insurance fees skyrocketing, significantly increasing uncertainty in the energy market. As a key raw material for prebaked anodes used in aluminum production, petcoke is expected to enter a state of supply tightens, cost surges, and quality disturbances under the influence of the geopolitical situation. This change will directly impact the stability of China's petcoke import system, while also substantially raising domestic prebaked anode production costs, creating a chain reaction in the downstream aluminum industry. In terms of the overall distribution of import sources, in 2025, regions and countries with high petcoke import dependency in China showed a tiered characteristic. The first tier, centered around the US and Russia, saw the US accounting for 31%, making it the largest source of petcoke imports for China; Russia followed closely with 17%, together contributing nearly half of the total imports. The second tier was the Middle East, collectively accounting for 15%, serving as an important supplementary segment for China's petcoke imports. Other import sources were more dispersed, with Canada and Brazil each at 5%, and Argentina, Colombia, and Taiwan, China, each at 4%. This diversification of smaller sources enriched China's petcoke import supply system, but the influence of individual entities remained relatively limited. Notably, as a key supplementary sector for China's petcoke imports, the highly concentrated internal supply structure of the Middle East became the core reason for the impact of the deteriorating geopolitical situation on China's import market. In detail, the supply landscape of the Middle East exhibited a "dominance by one, supplemented by a few" feature: Saudi Arabia, with a 64% share, held an absolute dominant position, being the core exporter of petcoke from the Middle East to China; Oman ranked second with 22%; Kuwait accounted for 12%, with other regions providing only minor supplements. In terms of imported product specifications, petcoke from the Middle East mainly consisted of medium- to high-sulfur varieties, with different source countries focusing on specific types: petcoke from Saudi Arabia primarily included high-sulfur sponge coke and high-sulfur shot coke, from Oman mainly shot coke, and from Kuwait mainly medium-sulfur sponge coke. These types of petcoke are primarily used for blending in the production of prebaked anodes, serving as a crucial raw material supplement for the domestic prebaked anode industry. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has a multi-dimensional impact on the petroleum coke market: On one hand, the blockade leads to a complete halt in the export of Middle Eastern petroleum coke, significantly reducing the international circulation of petroleum coke. The arrival cycle for petroleum coke imported by China from the Middle East is notably extended, directly exacerbating the tightness of domestic import supply. On the other hand, some refineries in the region are affected by military conflicts, limiting their production activities and further contracting the overall supply of petroleum coke, creating a dual squeeze on the supply side. Meanwhile, the surge in international oil prices drives up the production costs of petroleum coke from refinery delayed coking units, providing a solid bottom support for petroleum coke prices. Coupled with the sharp rise in international shipping freight and war risk insurance premiums, these factors collectively push petroleum coke prices into a more likely to rise than fall trajectory. In summary, this geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is a significant external shock to the 2026 petroleum coke-prebaked anode-aluminum industry chain. The triple pressures of supply tightening, cost surges, and quality disruptions will continue to be passed down: Petroleum coke prices will keep rising, pushing up the production costs of prebaked anodes, which in turn will elevate the production costs of aluminum. If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, the entire industry chain will gradually enter a phase characterized by high costs, low inventory, and strong fluctuations. Ensuring supply chain security and controlling enterprise costs will become the core challenges facing the industry.

[SMM Aluminum Express] According to SMM, the base selling price for prebaked anode at a major domestic prebaked anode sales company for March 2026 dropped by 56 yuan/mt MoM. Regional selling prices were as follows: north-west China: 5,222 yuan/mt; north China: 5,172 yuan/mt; south-west China: 5,222 yuan/mt; south China: 5,222 yuan/mt.

[SMM Aluminum Express] According to SMM, the tender price for prebaked anode at a large aluminum plant in Shandong for March 2026 fell by 55 yuan/mt MoM. The spot execution price for prebaked anode in March 2026 was 5,174 yuan/mt, while the acceptance bill price was 5,203 yuan/mt.

SMM Analysis: SMM's February 2026 blister copper RCs in sourth China were quoted at 2,200-2,500 yuan/mt, with an average of 2,350 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt MoM...

In February 2026, the operating rate of secondary copper rod was 7.98%, above expectations of 7.46%, down 9.7 percentage points MoM and down 23.72 percentage points YoY. In February 2026, China’s secondary copper rod market, jointly driven by the Chinese New Year holiday and policy uncertainty, went through a full cyclical evolution of “pre-holiday volatility and positioning...

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Mixed Macro News, Lead Prices Continued to Consolidate] Premier Li Qiang delivered the Government Work Report: China’s 2026 economic growth target was 4.5%–5%, with the deficit ratio at around 4%. At present, the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday on the domestic market has largely dissipated, except that maintenance at some lead smelters has yet to resume…

February 2026 coincided with the Chinese New Year holiday. Affected by holiday factors, production pace across core segments of China’s sodium-ion battery industry generally slowed, showing an “off-season reset” trend. From cathodes, anodes, and electrolyte to battery cells and end-users, production across all segments declined MoM to varying degrees, while YoY still maintained a certain degree of growth resilience.

This week, more players entered the solid-state battery industry, with various parties “riding” the hype: Sunstone Development and TONZE stated that their sulphide projects were still in the early R&D stage; QingTao’s Wuhai 2 billion yuan project released its EIA public notice, and a 3.5 GWh production line in Taizhou commenced operations; Suzuki acquired Kanadevia’s solid-state battery business; Yaoshi Lithium Battery completed a 200 million yuan Series A financing round.

SMM February 28 news: According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in February 2026 fell 0.9% MoM and dropped 5.7% YoY. During the period, alumina raw material costs and auxiliary material costs declined, and the total cost pulled back slightly. The average SMM A00 spot price (January 26–February 25) in February was largely stable, and aluminum profit margins expanded to 7,707 yuan/mt. If the industry calculates based on the monthly average price, 100% of domestic operating aluminum capacity was profitable in February. Cost breakdown: Alumina raw material side : SMM data showed the average SMM alumina index in February was 2,621 yuan/mt (January 26–February 25), down 1.7% MoM. Production cuts at alumina plants during the month shifted inventory to destocking, but after the holiday, some aluminum smelters proactively reduced inventory, resulting in actual demand being lower than theoretical demand. Prices saw only a slight rebound by month-end, and the monthly average price dropped MoM. Entering March, alumina prices face both bullish and bearish factors. On one hand, operating alumina capacity is expected to decline MoM; on the other hand, aluminum smelters’ proactive destocking is expected to reduce demand. Overall, alumina raw material prices are projected to change by a relatively small margin. Auxiliary material market side : Both prebaked anode and fluoride salt prices pulled back in February. In March, prebaked anode and aluminum fluoride prices are expected to maintain a slight downward trend, and auxiliary material costs are projected to decrease. Electricity price side : Electricity prices were generally stable in February, with slight declines in some regions, leading to a small drop in the national average aluminum power cost. Entering March, electricity prices are expected to remain largely stable, and aluminum power costs are projected to hold steady. Overall, SMM expects the weighted average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in March 2026 to be largely stable, averaging around 15,750–16,150 yuan/mt.