[SMM Analysis: February Operating Rate of Primary Aluminum Billets Hit a Nearly Four-Year Low, Expected to Recover to Peak-Season Levels Seen in the Same Period in Previous Years in March] According to SMM statistics, the operating rate of aluminum billets in February fell sharply by 9.2 percentage points MoM to 41.4%, down 7.7 percentage points YoY. After aluminum prices surged to a record high at the end of January, they saw a sharp correction ....

SMM News, March 16: Data Brief: As of Monday, March 16, copper inventories in SMM’s major regions nationwide fell 5.46% WoW from the previous Monday, with destocking seen across all regions. Specifically, in Shanghai, arrivals of imported and domestic supplies were normal, while downstream consumption continued to recover, leading to some inventory drawdown; in Jiangsu, inventory declined slightly, supported by recovering downstream consumption; in Guangdong, consumption continued to improve, arrivals remained normal, and inventories likewise maintained a destocking trend. Looking ahead, arrivals of imported and domestic supplies are expected to remain stable, with overall supply stabilizing; demand side, the pullback in copper prices effectively stimulated downstream consumption, and rigid demand is gradually being released. According to the survey, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to rise to 79.19% this week, up 6.27 percentage points WoW. Taking both supply and demand into account, the market is currently showing a pattern of “stabilizing supply and recovering consumption,” and social inventory is expected to continue destocking this week.

In January-February, raw coal production of industrial enterprises above designated size (hereinafter referred to as industrial enterprises above designated size) remained stable, crude oil production turned from decline to growth, natural gas production maintained steady growth, and the growth rate of power generation accelerated. I. Production of Raw Coal, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas and Related Information The decline in raw coal production narrowed. In January-February, raw coal production of industrial enterprises above designated size was 760 million mt, down 0.3% YoY, with the rate of decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from December 2025; daily average production was 12.93 million mt. Crude oil production turned from decline to growth. In January-February, crude oil production of industrial enterprises above designated size was 35.73 million mt, up 1.9% YoY, compared with a decline of 0.6% in December 2025; daily average production was 606,000 mt. Crude oil processing maintained growth. In January-February, crude oil processed by industrial enterprises above designated size totaled 122.63 million mt, up 2.9% YoY; daily average processing was 2.079 million mt. Natural gas production maintained steady growth. In January-February, natural gas production of industrial enterprises above designated size was 44.6 billion m³, up 2.9% YoY; daily average production was 760 million m³. II. Power Generation The growth rate of power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size accelerated. In January-February, power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 1,571.8 billion kWh, up 4.1% YoY, with the growth rate 4 percentage points faster than in December 2025; daily average power generation was 26.64 billion kWh. By type, in January-February, thermal power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from decline to growth, hydropower growth accelerated, while the growth rates of nuclear power, wind power, and solar power generation slowed. Specifically, thermal power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was up 3.3% YoY, compared with a decline of 3.2% in December 2025; hydropower was up 6.8%, with the growth rate accelerating by 2.7 percentage points; nuclear power was up 0.8%, with the growth rate slowing by 2.3 percentage points; wind power was up 5.3%, with the growth rate slowing by 3.6 percentage points; solar power generation was up 9.9%, with the growth rate slowing by 8.3 percentage points.

In early March 2026, Qatalum—the 648,000-tonne-per-year primary aluminum smelter in Qatar, a 50/50 joint venture between Norsk Hydro and Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Company initiated a controlled shutdown of production. The decision, effective from March 3, followed a warning from gas supplier QatarEnergy that natural gas deliveries would be fully suspended due to disruptions linked to the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, including attacks on regional energy infrastructure.

SMM Nickel News, March 16: Macro and Market News: (1) The financial statistics report for February released by the central bank showed that at month-end February, broad money (M2) balance stood at 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9% YoY; cumulative aggregate social financing for the first two months was 9.6 trillion yuan, 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; new RMB loans in the first two months increased by 5.61 trillion yuan; the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits was 345.72 trillion yuan, up 8.8% YoY; and the month-end RMB deposit balance was 337.94 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY. (2) The central bank said in its tender announcement for open-market outright reverse repo operations that on March 16, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through a fixed-quantity, interest-rate bidding, and multiple-price allocation method, with a tenor of six months (182 days). Spot Market: On March 16, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 2,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,700 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream branded electrodeposited nickel was at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fell sharply intraday and closed the morning session at 135,990 yuan/mt, down 1.83%. Tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, intensifying inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, creating clear pressure on nickel prices. Despite significant macro pressure, the industry-level support logic has not changed, and market concerns over tightening supply of nickel intermediate products remain. Short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Geopolitical Premiums Persist, Aluminum Prices Remained Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and was expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China, meanwhile, was in a phase of high inventory plus weak spot fundamentals, with upward momentum clearly weaker than outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio was expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices were expected to remain fluctuating at highs in the short term.

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March 13 (Reuters) - Gold was on track for a second straight weekly loss, even as it edged higher on Friday, as surging oil prices dampened rate cut bets and caused investors to cover margin calls, while a rising dollar and U.S. yields also pressured prices.

Since March 4, 2026, secondary copper rod has shifted to a premium of 200-400 yuan/mt against the most-traded futures contract. Meanwhile, the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod narrowed sharply from around 1,200 yuan/mt to about 300 yuan/mt

Overall, supply in China’s petroleum coke market continued to tighten, while downstream demand remained generally stable with support, and supply and demand fundamentals provided two-way support to the market. Coupled with recent fluctuations in crude oil prices and intensified cost-side bargaining, SMM expected that in the short term, the petroleum coke market would mainly remain in consolidation, with prices of different categories continuing to diverge.