[SMM Nickel Flash] Raw material side, nickel ore costs were still rising, driving high-grade NPI production costs to maintain an upward trend. Meanwhile, the increase in high-grade NPI prices slowed down, putting pressure on smelter profit margins.

[SMM Nickel Flash] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI rose WoW by 2.2 yuan/nickel unit to 1,089.9 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average price of Indonesia NPI FOB index rose WoW by $0.39/nickel unit to $138.93/nickel unit. This week, the tender price of mainstream steel mills was released, and the market came under brief pressure, but trading activity subsequently recovered to some extent, with high-grade NPI transaction prices rising again.

This week, the center of nickel prices moved lower WoW, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract fluctuating within 132,000-140,000 yuan/mt. Early in the week, it fell below the 135,000 yuan mark amid weaker macro sentiment, but in the latter part of the week, rumors of maintenance at HPAL projects provided strong support around 133,000 yuan, and prices eventually returned to fluctuate around 137,000 yuan/mt. As of Friday's close, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract rose 0.14% WoW, while LME nickel gained 0.06% WoW. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 140,510 yuan/mt this week, up 850 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 6,800 yuan/mt this week, down 100 yuan/mt WoW, while premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China ranged from -300 to 400 yuan/mt. Overall spot transactions were mediocre this week. On the macro front, geopolitical risks escalated markedly this week. In his first statement after taking office, Iran's new supreme leader said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and that a new front would be opened if necessary. US ADP employment increased by 63,000 in February, above market expectations. As a result, the US dollar index strengthened लगातार, putting pressure on non-ferrous metal prices. Pan Gongsheng, governor of China's central bank, said the next step would be to build a scientific and prudent monetary policy framework, continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, and strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Inventory side, inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone was about 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 87,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 3,000 mt WoW. In Indonesia's Morowali region, some HPAL plants cut production due to tailings accidents. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East raised the risk of sulfur supply disruptions, and the market expected future MHP intermediate product supply to be tight, with strong willingness to hold prices firm, which would provide some cost support for nickel prices. However, the area above 140,000 yuan/mt still faced strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is expected to be 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Analysis: Weak End-User Demand but Firm Costs, High-Grade NPI Prices Rose Steadily] The average SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI price rose 2.2 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,089.9 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price increased $0.39/nickel unit WoW to $138.93/nickel unit. This week, mainstream steel mills released tender prices, and the market came under brief pressure.

Affected by the supply-demand relationship, MHP and high-grade nickel matte nickel prices rose this week

[SMM Nickel Flash] March 13 News: Supply side, as rising ore prices provided strong cost support, upstream offer prices remained firm. Demand side, as market activity gradually rebounded, steel mills' indicative prices also saw some increases. Overall, market trading activity gradually recovered, and high-grade NPI prices were supported.

[SMM Nickel Flash] March 13 News: The SMM high-grade NPI market sentiment factor was 2.32, up 0.04 MoM; the upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.92, up 0.01 MoM; and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.72, up 0.07 MoM.

On March 13, the average price of SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate rose slightly.

SMM Nickel News, March 13: Macro and market news: (1) On the 12th, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the central bank, chaired a symposium with economic and financial experts. Pan Gongsheng said that in the next stage, the People’s Bank of China would build a scientific and prudent monetary policy framework, continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, and step up counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustments. (2) In the first statement since taking office on March 12, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said that all US military bases in the Middle East should be closed immediately, or they would come under attack. Mojtaba Khamenei said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed. Spot market: On March 13, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,650 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China’s mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) once climbed above 140,000 yuan/mt in early trading, then pulled back sharply, and closed the morning session at 138,030 yuan/mt, down 0.1%. Recently, the US dollar has continued to strengthen, weighing on nickel prices. In the short term, the price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt range.

Philippines Market: Tight Supply and Surging Freight Rates Supported Ore Prices to Fluctuate at Highs Philippine nickel ore prices rose sharply this week. In terms of prices, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotes were $64-68/wmt for Ni 1.3% grade, $71-75/wmt for Ni 1.4% grade, and $78-82/wmt for Ni 1.5% grade, up $6 WoW. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $65.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $72.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Supply side, although the Philippines was transitioning into the dry season, mining hubs such as Surigao and Homonhon continued to see heavy rainfall due to a low-pressure area (LPA) east of Mindanao. Although Metro Manila and most parts of Luzon saw hot and sunny weather, the probability of rainfall exceeding 50 mm in Surigao and Caraga remained “very high.” Strong thunderstorms and scattered precipitation were expected to further intensify during March 9 to 13. Affected by the trough of the low-pressure area and the easterlies, persistent rainfall may continue to disrupt open-pit mining and vessel loading operations in southern regions. Market supply remained scarce. Driven by both supply tightness caused by cuts in Indonesia’s RKAB quotas and expected supply gaps, mainstream prices for Philippine nickel ore have surged recently. As of Friday, March 13, nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 5.23 million mt, down 500,000 mt WoW. Current total port inventory was equivalent to about 41,100 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, China’s NPI prices rose this week, with spot transaction prices up about 1,089.9 yuan per nickel unit. As smelters had sufficient stockpiling earlier and showed limited acceptance of recently high-priced nickel ore, most were currently taking a wait-and-see stance. In terms of ocean freight rates, affected by a sharp jump in oil prices, nickel ore freight rates climbed, with the ocean freight rate from the Philippines to Lianyungang reaching $15/mt or above. Looking ahead, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs. Indonesia Market: Under Weather Disruptions and RKAB Policy Clarification, Tight Supply Continued Indonesia's local nickel ore prices rose somewhat this week. Indonesia’s nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) for the first half of March was set at $17,104/dmt, down 3.21% MoM. According to SMM Indonesia nickel ore premium data, average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively. Among them, the port arrivals under domestic trade price for 1.6% grade was $65.2-74.2/wmt. The simultaneous strengthening in premiums this month reflected both the release of smelters’ restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota cuts, while the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up to $24-26/wmt. From the supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 13, Indonesia’s key nickel ore producing areas of Morowali, Konawe, and Halmahera were affected this week by strong thunderstorms and extremely high humidity of up to 94%. Weather continued to fluctuate, causing soil to become highly saturated and seriously hindering mine drying and transport operations. Morowali and Konawe will face a heavy rainfall system over the weekend with precipitation probability as high as 80%, while Halmahera, under high-humidity conditions, is expected to see rainfall intensity rebound again next Friday, with overall logistics capacity remaining constrained. At present, RKAB approvals for most small- and medium-sized mines remained pending. As existing quotas could no longer be used for next month’s production and sales, rising supply uncertainty was pushing nickel ore prices higher. Demand side, as some Indonesian smelters faced uncertainty over nickel ore resources and found it difficult to secure high-grade saprolite ore, nickel ore prices remained firm. To secure raw material supply, some smelters even raised trading bonuses. Overall, although the impact of the current MOMS system failure on mines had largely faded, overall nickel ore supply remained tight. Although spot supply of limonite ore was relatively sufficient, some related production lines were currently running at low load due to a tailings dam landslide accident at some MHP projects in an Indonesian industrial park, leading to temporary weakness in overall demand. However, considering concerns among some Indonesian smelters over RKAB approval uncertainty, raw material stockpiling demand from newly commissioned projects, and continued growth in demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices are expected to closely track saprolite ore and remain high. On the policy side, in response to recent market rumors that “production quotas (RKAB) will be uniformly supplemented by an additional 25%-30%,” Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), clarified on March 3, 2026, that RKAB supplements would be based on individual assessments of enterprise production capacity and compliance, rather than a uniform proportional increase, and indicated that the approval process would start in H2 2026. Officials emphasized that this was a routine regulatory process for resource optimization, rather than a passive countermeasure to the previous output cap policy. Looking ahead, affected by the relatively slow progress of RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices are expected to remain more likely to rise than fall in April.