On March 9, the average SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate price was flat WoW from last Friday.

SMM Nickel News, March 10: Macro and Market Updates: (1) US President Trump: The war has basically ended, and he is considering controlling the Strait of Hormuz; it is “still a long way off” from deploying US ground troops to Iran, and it is too early to talk about seizing Iran’s oil. (2) Russian President Putin and US President Trump held a phone call that day, focusing on the Middle East situation related to Iran and the progress of negotiations on the Ukraine issue. Spot Market: On March 10, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose by 2,700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,650 yuan/mt, down 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for domestically mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: After the morning open, the most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract plunged straight away, hitting a low of 132,000 yuan/mt, then rebounded sharply. As of the morning close, it was quoted at 137,240 yuan/mt, up 0.87%. In the morning session, nickel prices rebounded on news that four Indonesian high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) nickel plants were forced into a full shutdown due to a landslide accident in February. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract price is expected to move sideways within the 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt range.

On March 9, the average SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate price was flat WoW from last Friday.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Easing Geopolitical Sentiment Supports Base Metals; SS Futures Hold Up Well and Fluctuate Upward SMM News on March 10: SS futures showed a hold-up-well, rangebound pattern. US President Trump said regarding the situation related to Iran that “the war is about to end,” which supported base metals futures and led to signs of strengthening. SS futures also rose in tandem, closing at 14,265 yuan/mt by the midday close. In the spot market, driven by stronger SS futures, traders turned more optimistic and confidence improved, with fewer low-priced supplies in the market. Downstream end-users still mainly made just-in-time procurement, and overall transactions remained steady. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated downward. At 10:15 a.m., SS2604 was quoted at 14,310 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums for 304/2B were in the 210-410 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils were generally stable; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi was stable and the average price in Foshan was stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi were quoted stable; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were stable. As the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April” begins, the stainless steel market is entering a window for demand recovery. Downstream demand is gradually returning as market participants resume work and resume production after the Chinese New Year holiday, but although transactions improved compared with the earlier period, the bustling peak-season momentum has yet to emerge. End-user procurement remains mainly just-in-time, and stockpiling willingness is relatively low. On the futures side, driven by risk aversion triggered by geopolitical conflicts...

SMM Nickel News, March 9: Macro and Market Updates: (1) US nonfarm payrolls in February unexpectedly fell by 92,000, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%. Nonfarm payrolls for December last year and January this year were revised down by a combined 69,000. After the data release, the implied probability of a US Fed interest rate cut in June quickly rose to about 50% (2) Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an said at an economy-themed press conference on the 6th that this year’s fiscal funding arrangements hit “new highs” in three areas; fiscal policy in 2026 will continue to maintain a more proactive stance; the central government will allocate 100 billion yuan to support fiscal-financial coordination to boost domestic demand; innovative policy tools for fiscal-financial coordination to boost domestic demand will be established, focusing on two key areas: household consumption and private investment; special funds for fiscal-financial coordination to boost domestic demand at the 100-billion-yuan level can benefit credit at the trillion-yuan level. Spot Market: On March 9, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 1,600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 7,250 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: After the morning open, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) plunged immediately, hitting a low of 132,000 yuan/mt, then rebounded sharply. As of the morning close, it was at 137,380 yuan/mt, up 0.47%. A stronger US dollar index, coupled with risk-off sentiment triggered by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, weighed on base metal prices. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract price is expected to move sideways within 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Daily Review: Wider Disparities in Market Quotes, High-Grade NPI Caught in a Standoff] March 9 News: SMM’s upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.9, up 0.02 MoM, and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.4, up 0.03 MoM.

Nickel Ore "Tight Supply-Demand Balance Drives Premiums; Government Clarifies RKAB Mechanism " Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.104/dmt, a month-on-month decrease of 3.21%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $34, $38, and $38.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $65.2–$72.2/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $24–$26/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a fundamental perspective, as of March 6, Sulawesi and Halmahera are in a volatile transition at the tail end of the rainy season, where intermittent heavy rainfall continues to obstruct mining logistics. Morowali is currently overcast with high humidity (94%), and while immediate rain is light, a heavy precipitation system is expected around March 13 with up to 48mm of rain; Konawe remains cloudy with daily thundershowers. Halmahera also faces a high-precipitation weekend with a 65% chance of thunderstorms on March 7-8. Despite BMKG's forecast of an early dry season in April, saturated soil and local wind gusts currently prevent these regions from reaching full mining and loading capacity. Under the dual pressure of scarce tradable supply and RKAB uncertainty, some NPI smelters have been forced to ramp up procurement to secure raw materials. Hydrometallurgical Ore While spot supply of limonite is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project has forced related production lines to operate at low utilization, causing temporary demand weakness. However, due to concerns over RKAB approvals, stockpiling for new projects, and growing demand from outer islands, limonite prices are expected to shadow saprolite prices and remain high. On the policy side, Director General Tri Winarno of the ESDM clarified on March 3, 2026, that any RKAB increases will be based on individual company assessments of capacity and compliance rather than a universal percentage hike, with the approval process slated for the second half of 2026. The government emphasized that this is a routine regulatory procedure to optimize resources, not a reactive measure against the previously set annual production cap of 260–270 million tons. Nickel Pig Iron " Strong Cost Support Drives High-Grade NPI Prices Upward " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price rose by RMB 21.1 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1092.6 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index increased by USD 2.22 per nickel unit to an average of USD 138.54 per nickel unit. This rally is primarily fueled by a "scarcity of high-nickel-content units" and firm offers from smelters facing intense cost pressure from rising ore prices. While downstream stainless steel mills remain reluctant to accept these peak prices due to limited gains in finished products, the overall market remains supported by tight tradable supply and the post-holiday resumption of production. The surge in nickel ore costs has significantly squeezed smelter margins, with many producers now facing contracting profits as NPI price growth lags behind feedstock inflation. Looking ahead, it is expected that NPI prices to maintain their upward momentum as raw material costs remain "easy to rise but hard to fall" and seasonal demand begins to recover.

Philippine Ore Prices Strengthened Sharply, With Multiple Supply-Side Risks Supporting the Cost Floor Philippine nickel ore prices rose sharply this week. In terms of pricing, Philippine nickel ore CIF China: NI 1.3% grade at $58-63/wmt, NI 1.4% grade at $65-69/wmt, and NI 1.5% grade at $72-76/wmt, up $4 from the previous week. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $62.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $69.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Supply side, the Philippines was in a transition to the dry season, but affected by a developing low-pressure area (LPA) east of Mindanao, heavy rainfall continued in mining hubs such as Surigao and Homonhon Island. Although Metro Manila and most of Luzon had sunny and hot weather, the probability of weekly rainfall exceeding 50 mm in Surigao and the Caraga region was “high to extremely high,” and strong thunderstorms and scattered rainfall were expected to further intensify from March 9 to 13. Influenced by the LPA trough and the Dongfeng, this persistent rainy weather could continue to disrupt open-pit mining and vessel loading operations in the southern regions mentioned above. Currently, available spot cargo in the market was limited; coupled with the tightness in nickel ore supply and a potential demand gap driven by expectations of RKAB quota cuts in Indonesia, mainstream prices for Philippine nickel ore have risen markedly in recent periods. As of Friday, March 6, China’s port nickel ore inventory stood at 5.73 million mt, down 370,000 mt WoW. Current total port nickel ore inventory was equivalent to metal content of about 45,000 mt Ni. Demand side, domestic NPI prices rose this week, while spot transaction prices fell by about 1,092.6 yuan/nickel unit. From the perspective of smelters’ procurement departments, given ample earlier stockpiling and limited acceptance of recently extremely high-priced ore, most were currently staying on the sidelines. In terms of ocean freight rates, ocean freight rates rose sharply recently due to the situation in Iran, with the ocean freight rate from the Philippines to Tianjin Port at $11/mt. Looking ahead, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs. Indonesia Market: Tight Supply and Demand Drove Premiums Higher; Authorities Clarified the RKAB Supplement Mechanism Indonesia's local nickel ore prices rose significantly this month. For the first half of March, the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) was set at $17,104/dmt, down 3.21% MoM. According to SMM data on Indonesia nickel ore premiums, the average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $34, $38, and $38.5/dmt, respectively. Among them, the port arrivals under domestic trade price for 1.6% grade was $65.2–72.2/wmt. The dual strengthening of premiums this month reflected the release of smelters’ restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota reductions; meanwhile, the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up in tandem to $24–26/wmt. Supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 6, Sulawesi and Halmahera were in a period of wild swings at the tail end of the rainy season, and intermittent heavy rainfall continued to hinder mine logistics. Morowali was currently overcast with extremely high humidity (94%); although rainfall remained light for now, a strong rainfall system was expected around March 13, with precipitation reaching 48 mm. Konawe likewise remained mostly cloudy with daily thunderstorms. Meanwhile, Halmahera was set to face a high-precipitation weekend, with the probability of thunderstorms as high as 65% on March 7–8. Although Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecast that the dry season would arrive earlier in April, the above areas were still unable to reach full-load mining and loading capacity due to highly saturated soil moisture and localized gusts. Under the dual pressure of tight tradable availability and uncertainty over RKAB quotas, some NPI smelters were forced to significantly step up procurement this month to secure raw material supply. While spot supply of limonite ore was relatively ample, a tailings dam landslide incident at certain MHP projects in an Indonesian industrial park kept the relevant production lines operating at low load, resulting in a phase of overall demand weakness. However, considering concerns among some Indonesian smelters over uncertainty in RKAB approvals, raw material stockpiling needs for newly commissioned projects, and continued growth in demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices were expected to closely track saprolite ore and remain elevated. Policy side, regarding recent widespread market rumors that “production quotas (RKAB) will be uniformly increased by an additional 25%–30%,” Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), clarified on March 3, 2026 that RKAB increases would be based on individual assessments of enterprises’ production capability and compliance, rather than a uniform proportional increase, and indicated that the approval process would begin in H2 2026. Officials emphasized that this move was a routine regulatory process to optimize resources, not a passive offset against the previous production cap policy.

Recently, the Malaysian stainless steel market has been roiled by supply chain disruptions as multiple shipments of cold-rolled stainless steel from Indonesian Tsingshan faced severe customs clearance hurdles. This abrupt "stuck at customs" situation triggered strong concerns among local downstream processors regarding supply stability and spot price volatility. However, a recent gazette issued by the Malaysian Federal Government has finally turned the tide, though the underlying policy chess game is far from over. The Resolution: Official Exemption for Specific Indonesian Entity On March 6, 2026, the Attorney General's Chambers of Malaysia officially published the Customs (Anti-Dumping Duties) Order 2026 (Amendment) Order 2026 under gazette P.U. (A) 120. This document provides a crucial correction to the anti-dumping policy regarding Indonesia. Under the amended schedule for "The Republic of Indonesia," the broad category of "Other producer or exporter" has been redefined to explicitly exclude PT Indonesia Ruipu Nickel and Chrome Alloy (a subsidiary of Tsingshan Holding Group) . Effective Period and Retroactivity: The amendment is backdated, officially effective from January 15, 2026, to April 23, 2026 . Affected Products and HS Codes: The policy applies to cold-rolled stainless steel in coils, sheets, or any other form with a thickness of not more than 6.5 millimeters. The specific Malaysian Harmonized System (HS) Codes are: 7219.31.00 00 7219.32.00 00 7219.33.00 00 7219.34.00 00 7219.35.00 00 7220.20.10 00 7220.20.90 00 (Note: Excludes cold-rolled stainless steel with bright annealed (BA), No. 8 mirror finish, embossed, rigidised, etched, or coloured finishes, or those with a hardness value exceeding 250HV). Historical Trace: Was the "Customs Hold-Up" an Administrative Glitch? SMM's review of historical gazettes reveals that Indonesian Tsingshan had long held a "tax-free shield." Back on April 26, 2021, when Malaysia enacted the Customs (Anti-Dumping Duties) Order 2021 [P.U. (A) 197], which imposed a 5-year anti-dumping duty on cold-rolled stainless steel from Indonesia and Vietnam, PT Indonesia Ruipu Nickel and Chrome Alloy was explicitly exempted from the onset. However, as the policy entered a renewal/transition phase in early 2026 (post-January 15), it appears an administrative oversight occurred. The exemption clause was not automatically carried over, causing incoming shipments to be slapped with the maximum 34.82% duty designated for "Other Indonesian producers," leading to the customs blockage. The retroactive amendment published on March 6 essentially rectifies this glitch, reinstating the company's exemption status and allowing the stranded cargoes to clear customs rapidly. The Ultimate Suspense: The "April 23" Sunset Countdown While the immediate clearance crisis is resolved, SMM notes that a much larger policy countdown is looming. The "April 23" deadline set in the latest gazette is not arbitrary. According to the original 2021 directive, Malaysia's 5-year anti-dumping measure against Indonesian stainless steel has a statutory expiration date of April 23, 2026 . This means the entire Southeast Asian stainless steel trade network will face a critical Sunset Review node in just over a month: Import Rush: With only a month left in this guaranteed "tax-free window," Indonesian exporters will likely expedite shipments. This could result in a short-term flood of Indonesian spot materials into the Malaysian market, pressuring local prices. Policy Reshuffle: Post-April 23, if the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (MITI) does not extend the anti-dumping duties, other Indonesian mills will regain low-cost access to Malaysia. Conversely, given Malaysia's strong protectionist stance—evidenced by the 2023 administrative review [P.U. (A) 225] which levied duties against China, Korea, and Thailand—if MITI extends the measures, can Tsingshan maintain its exclusive exemption in the new cycle? This decision will dictate ASEAN stainless steel pricing dynamics in the second half of the year. SMM will continue to track MITI's upcoming sunset review announcements and customs data to monitor shifts in Southeast Asian stainless steel trade flows.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel was $15,418/mt Ni in metal content, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt was $49,918/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 85.5-86.5, and the payable indicator for MHP cobalt element (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 91. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $15,777/mt Ni in metal content.