SMM Nickel, March 12: Macro and Market News: (1) US February CPI rose 2.4% year on year, and core CPI rose 2.5% year on year, in line with market expectations. (2) Trump said Iran had "nothing left to strike," and the war would end soon. The Iranian president proposed three necessary conditions for ending the war: recognizing Iran's legitimate rights, paying war reparations, and providing firm guarantees from the international community to prevent future acts of aggression. Spot Market: On March 12, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 1,200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,750 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) surged in the night session, but fell sharply during the morning session, closing the morning session at 137,400 yuan/mt, up 0.08%. On the macro front, there were signs that the risk-off sentiment stemming from geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East was easing in the short term. Supply side, the core driver remained Indonesia's unchanged policy of tightening nickel ore supply. In the short term, the price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt range.

Supported by a relatively large volume of orders taken last week and a full production schedule, the operating rate of the enamelled wire industry increased WoW this week (March 6–March 12).....

As of this Thursday, the average SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate price rose WoW. Demand side, some producers recently began making inquiries, and procurement sentiment improved somewhat, but as downstream orders remained unclear, they still took a wait-and-see attitude toward high-priced nickel salt. Supply side, due to uncertainty in Indonesian MHP supply recently, some producers expected raw material costs to rise and raised their offers accordingly. Looking ahead, Q2 is about to begin. Attention should be paid to support from the raw material side for nickel sulphate prices. Inventory side, this week the inventory index at upstream nickel salt smelters remained at 4.7 days, the inventory index at downstream precursor plants fell from 7.4 days to 7.1 days, and the inventory index at integrated enterprises declined from 7 days to 6.8 days. In terms of buyer-seller balance, this week the Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor at upstream nickel salt smelters remained at 1.8, the procurement sentiment factor at downstream precursor plants remained at 2.7, transaction sentiment recovered slightly, and the sentiment factor at integrated enterprises remained at 2.4. (Historical data is available in the database.)

[SMM Weekly Survey of the Aluminum Downstream Sector: Downstream Aluminum Operating Rate Continued to Rebound to 61.9%, with High Prices Suppressing the Peak "Golden March" Season] This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China rose 2.4 percentage points MoM to 61.9%, overall extending the post-holiday recovery trend, with all segments rebounding MoM, and the industry as a whole entering a normal production pace.

On March 11, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate rose slightly.

This week, ternary cathode precursor prices were broadly stable. Raw materials, nickel sulphate prices edged up today, while cobalt sulphate prices and manganese sulphate prices held steady. Discounts, for March orders, as raw material prices were expected to rise to some extent, some producers recently showed willingness to raise nickel discounts. Long-term contracts, as downstream orders remained unclear, acceptance of higher discounts did not improve significantly and was basically flat from February. Spot orders, discounts for some earlier orders had already been finalised before the Chinese New Year, while discounts for the remaining March orders rose slightly from February; production, precursor production schedules in March recovered overall from February, with some leading producers in China and producers with relatively large export orders maintaining high operating rates. Looking ahead, sulphate prices have recently remained generally firm and may provide further support for precursor prices from the cost side.

On the demand side, the EV battery market has seen order contractions compared to earlier expectations, impacted by lackluster new energy vehicle sales both domestically and internationally.

As of now, Indonesia’s MHP nickel FOB price was $15,379/mt Ni, and Indonesia’s MHP cobalt FOB price was $49,879/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 86.5-87, and the MHP cobalt element payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 91. Indonesia’s high-grade nickel matte FOB price was $15,736/mt Ni.

[SMM Daily Review: Market Activity Continued to Recover, and the Center of the High-Grade NPI Market Continued to Move Upward] March 12 News, SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.91, up 0.04 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.65, up 0.01 MoM.

[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Opened Sharply Lower in the Night Session and Remained Rangebound at Low Levels, While Trading in the Spot Market Was Relatively Mediocre]