This week, the center of nickel prices moved lower WoW, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract fluctuating within 132,000-140,000 yuan/mt. Early in the week, it fell below the 135,000 yuan mark amid weaker macro sentiment, but in the latter part of the week, rumors of maintenance at HPAL projects provided strong support around 133,000 yuan, and prices eventually returned to fluctuate around 137,000 yuan/mt. As of Friday's close, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract rose 0.14% WoW, while LME nickel gained 0.06% WoW. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 140,510 yuan/mt this week, up 850 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 6,800 yuan/mt this week, down 100 yuan/mt WoW, while premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China ranged from -300 to 400 yuan/mt. Overall spot transactions were mediocre this week. On the macro front, geopolitical risks escalated markedly this week. In his first statement after taking office, Iran's new supreme leader said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and that a new front would be opened if necessary. US ADP employment increased by 63,000 in February, above market expectations. As a result, the US dollar index strengthened लगातार, putting pressure on non-ferrous metal prices. Pan Gongsheng, governor of China's central bank, said the next step would be to build a scientific and prudent monetary policy framework, continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, and strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Inventory side, inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone was about 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 87,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 3,000 mt WoW. In Indonesia's Morowali region, some HPAL plants cut production due to tailings accidents. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East raised the risk of sulfur supply disruptions, and the market expected future MHP intermediate product supply to be tight, with strong willingness to hold prices firm, which would provide some cost support for nickel prices. However, the area above 140,000 yuan/mt still faced strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is expected to be 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt.

On March 13, the average price of SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate rose slightly.

Affected by the supply-demand relationship, MHP and high-grade nickel matte nickel prices rose this week

SMM Nickel News, March 13: Macro and market news: (1) On the 12th, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the central bank, chaired a symposium with economic and financial experts. Pan Gongsheng said that in the next stage, the People’s Bank of China would build a scientific and prudent monetary policy framework, continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, and step up counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustments. (2) In the first statement since taking office on March 12, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said that all US military bases in the Middle East should be closed immediately, or they would come under attack. Mojtaba Khamenei said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed. Spot market: On March 13, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,650 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China’s mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) once climbed above 140,000 yuan/mt in early trading, then pulled back sharply, and closed the morning session at 138,030 yuan/mt, down 0.1%. Recently, the US dollar has continued to strengthen, weighing on nickel prices. In the short term, the price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt range.

This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China strengthened to 10,400-10,500 yuan/mt; prices of stainless steel scrap off-cuts of the same specification in Foshan also rose, with the price range at 10,000-10,300 yuan/mt. From the raw material cost perspective, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely with stainless steel scrap was about 14,364.47 yuan/mt, while the cost of producing it entirely with high-grade NPI was 14,640.04 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices strengthened and moved higher, mainly driven by the combined effects of linkage with furnace charge prices, cost-effectiveness advantages, and demand support. Stainless steel finished product prices have remained generally stable recently and struggled to rise; however, high-grade NPI prices still held firm, and high-carbon ferrochrome prices also moved higher in tandem recently. Following the trend of other furnace charge materials, stainless steel scrap also showed an upward trend. Stainless steel planned production for March is expected to rise significantly, boosting procurement demand for stainless steel scrap; meanwhile, supported by nickel ore and chrome ore, the pattern of high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome prices holding up well is unlikely to change, further driving stainless steel scrap prices higher. In addition, although the cost-effectiveness advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI has narrowed somewhat, it still retains a considerable advantage at present, providing strong support for stainless steel scrap prices and reinforcing bullish market sentiment. However, it should be noted that the current recovery in downstream demand remains limited, and stainless steel social inventory is at a relatively high level. Stainless steel mills are facing considerable shipment pressure, causing stainless steel finished product prices to meet resistance in moving higher and in turn placing some constraints on further gains in stainless steel scrap prices. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week showed a pattern of "prices moving higher, raw material support, and demand under pressure." Although gains in finished product prices were capped by their struggle to rise, supported by stronger demand, firmer substitute raw materials, and cost-effectiveness advantages, stainless steel scrap prices are expected to remain generally stable with slight rise in the period ahead.

SMM Nickel, March 12: Macro and Market News: (1) US February CPI rose 2.4% year on year, and core CPI rose 2.5% year on year, in line with market expectations. (2) Trump said Iran had "nothing left to strike," and the war would end soon. The Iranian president proposed three necessary conditions for ending the war: recognizing Iran's legitimate rights, paying war reparations, and providing firm guarantees from the international community to prevent future acts of aggression. Spot Market: On March 12, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 1,200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,750 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) surged in the night session, but fell sharply during the morning session, closing the morning session at 137,400 yuan/mt, up 0.08%. On the macro front, there were signs that the risk-off sentiment stemming from geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East was easing in the short term. Supply side, the core driver remained Indonesia's unchanged policy of tightening nickel ore supply. In the short term, the price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt range.

In the fields of precious and rare metals, compared with well-known categories such as gold, silver, and platinum-group metals, osmium has always remained a niche yet highly distinctive presence. With its unmatched physicochemical properties, it has become an indispensable key material in high-end industry and scientific research. Even though it receives limited market attention, it still possesses irreplaceable value. This article will provide a comprehensive breakdown of osmium metal, covering its basic properties, resource supply, application scenarios, and market characteristics, to offer a full understanding of this “king of density.” I. First Encounter with Osmium: A Hardcore Outlier Among the Platinum-Group Metals Osmium, with the chemical symbol Os and atomic number 76, belongs to the platinum-group metals. It is a Group VIII transition metal on the periodic table and also one of the rarest metals found in nature. As one of the six major members of the platinum-group metal family, osmium has no independent ore deposits and is commonly associated with platinum, iridium, ruthenium, rhodium, and palladium. It can only be recovered through purification during platinum ore smelting and cannot be extracted through standalone large-scale mining. This inherent characteristic directly defines its scarcity. Osmium’s physicochemical properties are truly unique in the world of metals, with highly recognizable core characteristics: first, it has the highest density in the world. Under standard conditions at 20°C, its density reaches 22.59 g/cm³, far exceeding that of gold (19.32 g/cm³) and platinum (21.45 g/cm³). It is currently the densest naturally occurring metal known, and at the same volume, it weighs far more than various conventional precious metals. Second, it demonstrates excellent high-temperature resistance, with a melting point of 3,033°C and a boiling point exceeding 5,000°C. It remains highly stable in high-temperature environments and can adapt to various industrial and scientific applications under extreme heat. Third, it has outstanding hardness and strong corrosion resistance. With a Mohs hardness of 7, it is hard, durable, and wear-resistant, and is difficult to corrode under conventional acidic or alkaline conditions. However, its drawbacks are also quite evident: it is highly brittle and has extremely poor plasticity, making it impossible to process through conventional mechanical methods, so it is mostly used in powder or alloy form. A key safety precaution must be emphasized here: when osmium metal is heated in air to above 100°C, it slowly oxidizes to form osmium tetroxide (OsO₄). This substance is highly irritating, highly volatile, and somewhat toxic. Therefore, the entire process involving osmium, including production smelting, storage and transportation, and deep processing, must be carried out under the protection of inert gas and in strict compliance with operational standards. These exceptionally high compliance and control requirements further raise the barriers to osmium’s production and application. II. Extreme Scarcity: Osmium’s Resource Endowment and Supply Landscape Osmium is far rarer than commonly recognized precious metals such as gold and platinum, and it can be regarded as a “niche treasure” in the precious metals sector. Relevant data show that the average abundance of osmium in the Earth’s crust is only about 0.001 ppm, making it one of the least abundant stable elements in the crust. Globally, identified recoverable reserves are extremely limited, and resource distribution is highly concentrated, without the formation of widely distributed ore deposits. Supply side further highlights the scarcity of osmium. As there are no standalone mines, global osmium production is entirely dependent on platinum mining and smelting, with capacity remaining at an extremely low level for many years. Global annual production is about 1 mt (data from the International Platinum Group Metals Association), while China’s annual production is less than 100 kg, with supply far below that of other platinum group metals. From the global supply landscape, traditional major platinum group metal-producing countries such as South Africa and Russia control the vast majority of the world’s osmium resources and smelting capacity. Industry supply is therefore highly monopolized, with extremely low supply elasticity. Minor changes in mine development progress, geopolitical conditions, environmental protection-related control policies, and platinum group metal smelting capacity all directly affect global osmium supply. This dual attribute of “inherent resource scarcity + constrained supply” has kept the osmium market in a long-term tight supply-demand balance and given it strong price resilience and fluctuation elasticity, securing it a unique position in the rare metals market. III. Exclusive to Cutting-Edge Applications: Core Application Scenarios for Osmium Although osmium has limited production and a relatively narrow application scope, its exceptional physical and chemical properties have enabled it to establish a precise foothold in high-end niche fields, making it an irreplaceable core material in many cutting-edge applications. Downstream demand is concentrated and highly rigid, with no low-cost substitutes currently available. Its core applications are mainly concentrated in four major areas: 1 Special Hard Alloys: Core Raw Materials for High-End Wear-Resistant Components Osmium-based alloys produced by melting osmium with metals such as iridium and platinum combine ultra-high hardness, wear resistance, and corrosion resistance, making them key materials for high-end precision instruments. These alloys are widely used in high-precision bearings for high-end watches and precision instruments, nibs for premium fountain pens, styluses for professional record players, and medical precision scalpels and wear-resistant components for high-end machinery. They can significantly extend service life and durability, making them suitable for long-term, high-load, high-wear operating environments, and they are core wear-resistant materials in high-end manufacturing. 2 Industrial Catalysis: Highly Efficient Specialized Additives for Fine Chemicals Osmium and its compounds have excellent catalytic activity and serve as specialized catalysts in certain fine chemical and organic synthesis reactions. In particular, in special chemical processes such as hydrogenation and oxidation reactions, they offer high catalytic efficiency and strong reaction selectivity, effectively optimizing process flows and improving product purity and yield. Although the unit consumption of osmium catalysts is extremely low, they are a rigid process necessity and are difficult to replace with other common metal catalysts, resulting in relatively stable downstream demand. 3 Scientific Research and Detection: Essential Specialized Consumables for Laboratories Although osmium tetroxide is toxic, it has irreplaceable value in scientific research. It is a high-quality staining agent for biological samples and microscopic material sections under electron microscopes, substantially improving sample clarity and contrast, and is an indispensable laboratory reagent in frontier research fields such as materials science and life sciences. Meanwhile, high-purity osmium powder was also widely used in high-end scientific research experiments and the R&D of specialized new materials, serving as a niche but essential consumable for major research institutes and high-end laboratories. 4. High-End Specialized Fields: Core Components for Military and Aerospace Applications Leveraging its core advantages of high density, high-temperature resistance, and high stability, osmium was also applied in specialized high-temperature components for aerospace and military applications, precision guidance components, as well as niche scenarios such as high-end electrical contacts and wear-resistant coatings. These applications were all concentrated in cutting-edge, high-precision sectors. Although the volume of each individual application was small, the product value-added was extremely high. Moreover, with the technological iteration and development of high-end manufacturing and the military and aerospace industries, related demand had the potential for steady growth. IV. Summary of the Core Characteristics of the Osmium Metal Market Overall, as a rare category among platinum group metals, osmium had highly distinctive core characteristics: extreme scarcity on the resource side, highly monopolized supply with insufficient elasticity; application-side concentration in high-precision, cutting-edge fields, with rigid and irreplaceable demand; and unique physicochemical properties, combining both advantages and application barriers. Unlike the market-driven fluctuation logic of conventional bulk commodities, the osmium market was significantly affected by factors such as supply-side changes, downstream demand from high-end industries, and compliance costs. The overall market size was small, and trading frequency was relatively low, placing it in the category of niche rare precious metals. Its core value always revolved around the two key points of “scarcity” and “irreplaceability,” making it an indispensable key metal material in high-end industrial and scientific research fields.

As of this Thursday, the average SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate price rose WoW. Demand side, some producers recently began making inquiries, and procurement sentiment improved somewhat, but as downstream orders remained unclear, they still took a wait-and-see attitude toward high-priced nickel salt. Supply side, due to uncertainty in Indonesian MHP supply recently, some producers expected raw material costs to rise and raised their offers accordingly. Looking ahead, Q2 is about to begin. Attention should be paid to support from the raw material side for nickel sulphate prices. Inventory side, this week the inventory index at upstream nickel salt smelters remained at 4.7 days, the inventory index at downstream precursor plants fell from 7.4 days to 7.1 days, and the inventory index at integrated enterprises declined from 7 days to 6.8 days. In terms of buyer-seller balance, this week the Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor at upstream nickel salt smelters remained at 1.8, the procurement sentiment factor at downstream precursor plants remained at 2.7, transaction sentiment recovered slightly, and the sentiment factor at integrated enterprises remained at 2.4. (Historical data is available in the database.)

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Struggled to Break Out of Rangebound Trading, Spot Market Held Prices Steady While Actively Shipping SMM News, March 13: SS futures remained in the doldrums. However, after opening higher in the night session, SS fluctuated downward, with the pace of pullback accelerating further in the afternoon, and closed at 14,190 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by fluctuations in futures, quotations were largely stable, with limited changes during the week. Although the recovery in downstream demand and cargo pick-up of previous orders provided support, and stainless steel social inventory stopped rising and pulled back this week, market expectations remained mediocre, with merchants mainly holding prices steady while actively making shipments. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated stronger. As of 10:15 a.m., SS2605 stood at 14,275 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 245-445 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi were all basically stable; for cold-rolled trimmed 304/2B coils, the average prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were basically stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were basically stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted basically stable in Wuxi; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were basically stable. Entering the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April,” the stainless steel market ushered in a window for demand recovery, with downstream end-users gradually recovering and inquiry and purchase activity having picked up notably recently. However, stainless steel spot prices overall remained basically stable, with no obvious fluctuations. End-user procurement mainly followed rigid demand, and a full-scale peak-season boom had yet to emerge, while wait-and-see sentiment still lingered in the market. On the futures side, affected by Yi...

This week, ternary cathode precursor prices were broadly stable. Raw materials, nickel sulphate prices edged up today, while cobalt sulphate prices and manganese sulphate prices held steady. Discounts, for March orders, as raw material prices were expected to rise to some extent, some producers recently showed willingness to raise nickel discounts. Long-term contracts, as downstream orders remained unclear, acceptance of higher discounts did not improve significantly and was basically flat from February. Spot orders, discounts for some earlier orders had already been finalised before the Chinese New Year, while discounts for the remaining March orders rose slightly from February; production, precursor production schedules in March recovered overall from February, with some leading producers in China and producers with relatively large export orders maintaining high operating rates. Looking ahead, sulphate prices have recently remained generally firm and may provide further support for precursor prices from the cost side.