[SMM Analysis: Weak End-User Demand but Firm Costs, High-Grade NPI Prices Rose Steadily] The average SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI price rose 2.2 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,089.9 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price increased $0.39/nickel unit WoW to $138.93/nickel unit. This week, mainstream steel mills released tender prices, and the market came under brief pressure.

[SMM Nickel Flash] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI rose WoW by 2.2 yuan/nickel unit to 1,089.9 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average price of Indonesia NPI FOB index rose WoW by $0.39/nickel unit to $138.93/nickel unit. This week, the tender price of mainstream steel mills was released, and the market came under brief pressure, but trading activity subsequently recovered to some extent, with high-grade NPI transaction prices rising again.

[SMM Nickel Flash] Although end-user demand provided weak support, supported by costs, the price center of high-grade NPI continued to move upward and only came under brief pressure after a sharp plunge in the futures market. Looking ahead, smelter production costs and traders' inventory holding costs remain high, and high-grade NPI prices are expected to stay supported.

[SMM Nickel Flash] Raw material side, nickel ore costs were still rising, driving high-grade NPI production costs to maintain an upward trend. Meanwhile, the increase in high-grade NPI prices slowed down, putting pressure on smelter profit margins.

[SMM Nickel Flash] March 13 News: The SMM high-grade NPI market sentiment factor was 2.32, up 0.04 MoM; the upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.92, up 0.01 MoM; and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.72, up 0.07 MoM.

[SMM Daily Review: Rising Ore Prices Provide Strong Cost Support, High-Grade NPI Prices Were Gradually Raised] March 13 News, SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.92, up 0.01 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.72, up 0.07 MoM.

[SMM Nickel Flash] March 13 News: Supply side, as rising ore prices provided strong cost support, upstream offer prices remained firm. Demand side, as market activity gradually rebounded, steel mills' indicative prices also saw some increases. Overall, market trading activity gradually recovered, and high-grade NPI prices were supported.

[SMM Nickel Flash] News on March 12: The SMM high-grade NPI market sentiment factor was 2.28, up 0.02 MoM; the upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.91, up 0.04 MoM; and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.65, up 0.01 MoM.

[SMM Daily Review: Market Activity Continued to Recover, and the Center of the High-Grade NPI Market Continued to Move Upward] March 12 News, SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.91, up 0.04 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.65, up 0.01 MoM.

Stainless steel spot prices were stable this week, but production costs rose somewhat, further squeezing stainless steel mills’ profit margins. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on raw material prices on the day, the full-cost profit margin was -1.27% this week; calculated based on raw material inventory costs, it reached 2.21%. Nickel raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices edged up further this week. Although a major stainless steel mill recently set relatively low procurement tender prices for high-grade NPI, strong nickel ore prices continued to provide solid cost support for NPI, traders showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, and the overall market remained bullish. Coupled with high stainless steel production schedules in March, downstream stainless steel mills maintained strong raw material demand, and the psychological price level also moved up gradually. In the short term, high-grade NPI prices were more likely to rise than fall. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% rose by 6.5 yuan per nickel unit to 1,094.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market side, stainless steel scrap prices strengthened this week, mainly due to the linkage with furnace charge, economic advantages, and demand support. Firm high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome prices boosted steel scrap prices higher. Stainless steel production schedules are expected to increase in March, boosting procurement demand. Stainless steel scrap still had an economic advantage over high-grade NPI, supporting bullish sentiment. However, downstream demand recovery remained limited, stainless steel social inventory stayed high, and finished product prices lacked momentum for further gains, constraining upside room for steel scrap prices. Overall, the market showed a pattern of “rising prices, raw material support, and demand under pressure,” and prices are expected to remain generally stable with slight rise going forward. As of this Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 600 yuan/mt to around 10,250 yuan/mt. Chrome raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices rose slightly this week. Overseas market chrome ore futures prices continued to climb, and China chrome ore spot quotations moved up in tandem. Ferrochrome smelting costs increased, ferrochrome producers’ profits narrowed significantly, and with retail spot supply of high-carbon ferrochrome remaining tight and stainless steel production schedules staying high in March, ferrochrome prices were supported to edge up further. As of this Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia rose 50 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW to 8,650 yuan/mt (50% metal content).