[SMM Tin Morning Update: SHFE Tin Prices Opened Slightly Higher in the Night Session and Then Consolidated at High Levels; As Prices Rebounded, Spot Cargo Transactions Gradually Cooled]

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,146/mt and hit an early high of $13,153/mt. Thereafter, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower, dipping to $12,975/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,027.5/mt, up 0.49%. Trading volume rose to 25,000 lots, and open interest to 306,000 lots, down 1,096 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,640 yuan/mt and climbed early to 102,080 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 101,200 yuan/mt, followed by wide swings, and finally settled at 101,700 yuan/mt, up 0.45%. Trading volume rose to 44,800 lots, and open interest to 195,000 lots, down 213 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Pulled Back, Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment Downstream] Affected by news-related factors, the Pr-Nd oxide market saw heightened wait-and-see sentiment among downstream metal plants, and some traders proactively cut prices to boost shipments. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices had pulled back to 845,000-850,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Bullish and Bearish Factors Coexisted in Domestic and Overseas Markets; Lead Prices Were Expected to Remain Consolidated] US Treasury Secretary Bessent: A 15% global tariff might be implemented this week, pledged to safeguard the Persian Gulf, and hinted that more measures were forthcoming. Recently, lead-acid battery enterprises in the domestic market basically resumed production, and the overall operating rate in March rebounded sharply from February…

Meanwhile, the Chinese New Year break for die-casting zinc alloy enterprises was extended longer than expected, increasing slightly by 0.4 days from the pre-holiday expectation of 23.1 days to 23.5 days.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper discounts are expected to continue a mild recovery. Futures prices declined somewhat, and downstream enterprise orders increased. From the market structure perspective, the price spread between futures contracts for the next month and the C contract narrowed, and suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouse may decline. Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargoes continued to arrive; coupled with social inventory remaining at high levels, overall circulating supply in the market is ample. Demand side, downstream enterprises continued to advance work and production resumptions, providing some support to spot premiums. Overall, spot premiums showed a pattern of slow recovery and gradual stabilization.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight SHFE zinc posted a small bullish candlestick, but the center of the daily candlestick edged slightly lower. Overnight zinc prices traded in a narrow range, with relatively strong support at the bottom; watch...

[SMM Daily Chrome Review: Ore-Side Uptrend Continued, with Cost Support for Ferrochrome] News on March 4, 2026: The ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was flat MoM from the previous trading day…

Over the past few days, the Indonesian nickel market has reacted to the government’s announcement of a restricted 2026 RKAB production quota, set at approximately 260–270 million tons. This reduction has sent shockwaves through the industry, sparking widespread concern among both operational and upcoming smelters. Stakeholders are increasingly worried that these tightened supply levels will be insufficient to sustain their long-term production requirements. For the first one, The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has stated that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has agreed to consider revisions to the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) starting in July. It is believed that the RKAB revisions could increase nickel production quotas by 25% to 30%. According to APNI, the domestic smelter demand based on the capacity is around 380-400 million tons, With the existing RKAB quota at 270 million tons and projected imports from the Philippines at 23 million tons, this 30% adjustment is critical to meeting the national ore deficit. This potential for more quota provides some relief to the market, but there is a second, more pressing issue to consider Another media also stated that The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has set a conservative nickel ore production target of 209.08 million tons for 2026, a figure notably lower than the approved RKAB quota of 260–270 million tons. According to Siti Sumilah Rita Susilawati of the Directorate General of Minerals and Coal, this strategic reduction is intended to preserve national reserves and stabilize global commodity prices As a result, the sudden perception of even deeper quota cuts has fueled confusion across the Indonesian market, which might further intensifying the pressure from already spiking nickel ore prices. I. Indonesia’s Calculated Nickel Ore Demand in 2026 According to SMM’s latest calculations, the total nickel ore requirement for 2026, which includes the demand from NPI, FeNi, Nickel Matte, and MHP, is estimated at approximately 334 million tons, based on the production estimates of smelter's current condition. This sharp increase is primarily driven by the rapid expansion of MHP production, which utilizes higher volumes of limonite ore. This surge in consumption has intensified the pressure on smelters to secure significantly higher mining quotas. II. Current Update and Understanding The Quota Revision? According to current understanding from the Regulation of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Number 17 of 2025, citing the 11 th Article Regarding the Amendment of Work Approved Quotas in ESDM, it is stated that: Article 11 (1) Holders of an IUP (Mining Business License) for the Exploration stage, holders of an IUPK (Special Mining Business License) for the Exploration stage, holders of an IUP for the Production Operation stage, holders of an IUPK for the Production Operation stage, or holders of an IUPK as a Continuation of Contract/Agreement Operations may submit one (1) application for an amendment to the Exploration stage RKAB or the Production Operation stage RKAB in each current year. (2) The application for the RKAB Amendment as referred to in paragraph (1) shall be submitted after the holders of the Exploration stage IUP, Exploration stage IUPK, Production Operation stage IUP, Production Operation stage IUPK, or IUPK as a Continuation of Contract/Agreement Operations have submitted periodic reports up to the second quarter or no later than July 31st of the current year. SMM observes that RKAB revisions and amendments are standard procedure, as seen in both 2024 and 2025. This year, however, the submission window for revisions is expected to open after June, with a final deadline of July 31st. While the ESDM has not clarified whether the 260–270 million ton target already accounts for these mid-year adjustments, it remains highly likely that these revisions will be sufficient to meet domestic smelter demand. Another Potential Cuts? According to SMM’s further communication with ESDM, the predicted quota for 2026 still remains on 260-270 million tons estimate. Since the further production cuts rumor by ESDM is not in an official setting announcement, it is hereby confirmed that the quota approved of 2026 will not be lower than ESDM’s initial estimate of 260-270 million tons. From SMM's understanding, the target number to be lower than the quota is merely just an estimate of the production target, not necessarily reflecting the actual production numbers. III. Nickel Ore Supply and Demand Given the government’s push to tighten annual quotas, SMM expects this year’s revisions to land at approximately 20%, a more conservative number. Furthermore, nickel ore imports from the Philippines are unlikely to see significant growth compared to 2025, with estimates holding at approximately 19 million tons. This stagnant growth is due to the heavy concentration of Philippine exports to China, coupled with limited domestic mining capacity and a lack of new mining companies . After factoring in import volumes from the Philippines, the nickel ore market is likely to remain in a tight supply-demand balance, especially with potential hurdles like the rainy season slowing down mining operations. Nonetheless, this scenario is much more realistic than the alternative: a massive 50+ million ton deficit that would occur if the total quota were strictly capped at 270 million tons. IV. Conclusion Overall, the signal for significant quota cuts at the start of the year has already triggered a sharp rally in nickel ore prices, which could be seen from the substantial rise in premiums, largely driven by quota reductions at major mining companies and persistent uncertainty among small-to-mid-scale operators. Looking ahead, if the government maintains these restricted levels and fails to approve adequate supplemental quotas, domestic ore prices are poised for further upward momentum, potentially intensifying the cost burden on the downstream smelting sector.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,843/mt, fluctuated downward in early trading to a low of $12,722/mt, then rose in a stepwise manner and climbed to $12,987/mt near the close, finally settling at $12,964.5/mt, down 0.92%. Trading volume reached 40,500 lots, and open interest reached 307,000 lots, down 4,847 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2704 contract opened at 100,530 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 100,200 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and hit a high of 101,530 yuan/mt near the close, finally settling at 101,330 yuan/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 92,000 lots, and open interest reached 194,000 lots, down 3,792 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions.