[Macro Disturbances Coupled With Rising China Inventory Weighed on the Centers of Both SHFE and LME This Week] At the beginning of the week, Trump stated that the conflict in Iran was basically over, and the US dollar index fell sharply, pushing the center of LME zinc higher; subsequently, market uncertainty intensified, some funds exited, and LME zinc came under pressure......

SMM March 13: This week, China’s domestic tungsten market exhibited high-level oscillations with intensified supply-demand competition. Multiple mines put products up for auction during the week, but transactions were bleak.As of March 13, tungsten prices remained largely stable, yet market sentiment became extremely divided.

Among them, the Gulf region was an important consumer market for China in the Middle East: China’s exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip to Saudi Arabia reached 42,500 mt, and aluminum foil 58,000 mt; exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip to the UAE reached 103,500 mt, and aluminum foil 93,800 mt; the other four countries (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman) accounted for combined exports of about 22,000 mt of aluminum plate/sheet and strip and about 11,000 mt of aluminum foil.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, costs edged down slightly, coke producers' profits improved somewhat, and the overall operating rate remained moderate. However, downstream purchasing sentiment was average, the shipment pace of some coke producers slowed down, and inventory pressure persisted to some extent. On the demand side, steel mills' profitability did not improve significantly, and the procurement pace of some steel mills slowed down, with purchase as needed remaining the main approach for coke. Overall, the coke market may remain temporarily stable next week, and expectations for price cuts have temporarily dissipated.

[SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review] This week (March 9–March 13), the most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 opened at 534 yuan/gram and closed at 541.6 yuan/gram, down 15.7 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, a decline of 2.82%. The weekly highest price was 577.85 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 522.6 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 opened at 408.75 yuan/gram and closed at 408.1 yuan/gram, down 13.8 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, down 3.27% WoW from last week’s settlement price. The weekly highest price was 430 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 397 yuan/gram. Futures trading: The most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 recorded total trading volume of 31,227 lots during the week, with total turnover of 17.368 billion yuan and open interest of 19,989 lots; open interest decreased by 1,894 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 recorded total trading volume of 11,077 lots during the week, with total turnover of 4.616 billion yuan and open interest of 7,612 lots; open interest increased by 11 lots WoW. At present, the US–Iran conflict remained dominated by political expectations, while the reality on the ground was still unresolved. On the political-expectations front, Trump frequently released marginal de-escalation signals to curb oil prices, saying the Iran issue was only a short-term military operation and expressing willingness to engage in dialogue with Iran; the TACO trade pulled oil prices back to around 90. On the reality front, Mojtaba, son of Khamenei, formally succeeded to power, and Iran entered the “Era of Avengers,” beginning to threaten the Strait of Hormuz; its foreign minister said the new leadership would refuse to negotiate with Trump. If the US–Iran conflict continues to escalate, it will push up oil prices and trigger concerns over imported inflation in the US, thereby delaying the Fed’s progress on interest rate cuts. On tariffs, after reciprocal tariff was overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration will seek a more solid legal basis to rebuild the tariff framework. The risk of re-inflation remained relatively high, and disputes over new tax rates and tax rebates lifted policy uncertainty to some extent. In the short term, Trump filled the tariff-rate vacuum through the 122 temporary tariff; in the medium and long-term, he may maintain a high-tariff framework via 232 and 301. In addition, the massive tax rebate pressure brought about after reciprocal tariff was ruled illegal will further increase the US fiscal burden, thereby reinforcing the logic of a weaker US dollar and providing support to precious metals overall. Supply side, NERSA announced it had formally approved Eskom’s electricity price adjustment plan for the next two years: electricity prices will be raised by 8.76% in April this year and raised again by 8.83% in April 2027. As South Africa’s PGM mining is highly dependent on electricity, rising electricity prices will continue to lift the cost center for platinum and palladium. The US Department of Commerce issued an announcement, making an affirmative preliminary anti-dumping determination on unwrought palladium imported from Russia, preliminarily determining the dumping margin for all Russian exporters/producers at 132.83%. In terms of valuation, watch changes in the US dollar index, which involve the relative strength of currencies such as the euro and the yen. Pay attention to details on the new administrator announced by the LME. Pay attention to the March 19 FOMC meeting, changes in economic data, and the impact of Wosh’s remarks on monetary policy expectations. The precious metals sector mainly benefited from the policy and political-environment tug-of-war during the US Fed’s midterm-election time window. From a medium- and long-term perspective, the foundation for a bull market in platinum and palladium remained intact. In the short term, be alert to the risk of a phased adjustment driven by a delay in expectations for an interest rate cut; pullbacks should be viewed as medium- and long-term opportunities to add long positions. Amid high fluctuations in platinum and palladium, pay attention to position sizing. As domestic and overseas markets are not continuous, the opening price of platinum and palladium often references the overseas night session; investors should monitor trading prices in international markets and be wary of opening gaps. Spot market, this week most traders holding cargo actively quoted prices. Some traders reported that supply was currently relatively ample while the market was relatively sluggish. Most downstream clients had sufficient inventory and mainly stayed on the sidelines, with only some downstream buyers making small, negotiated purchases to meet order demand. Along with continued cooling in investment demand, transactions were relatively difficult and price involution was severe. Overall, spot market trading this week was generally subdued.

[SMM Titanium Weekly Review: Titanium Dioxide Showed Signs of Recovery; Diverging Strength Across the Titanium Industry Chain Market This Week] This week, the titanium industry chain in China showed pronounced structural divergence, with the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers across upstream and downstream segments intensifying and cost pass-through facing obstacles. Overall, the sector was characterized by a combination of weak recovery and localized strong support. Trading in upstream titanium ore and titanium slag was sluggish. Downstream processing enterprises tightly controlled costs, with procurement consistently maintained at a pace driven by rigid demand. Coupled with inventory at high levels across the industry, the raw material end remained under pressure, enterprises’ willingness to operate stayed weak, capacity release was constrained, and the supply-demand imbalance continued to stand out. In the midstream titanium dioxide segment, pressure from elevated costs of raw materials and energy sharply increased production-side strain. Enterprises held prices firm and showed a strong willingness to sell, and while domestic trade demand did not see a noticeable increase in volume—relying only on rigid-demand support—overseas markets still demonstrated a certain degree of resilience, leaving the overall market running relatively strong. The downstream sponge titanium and titanium products segments performed impressively: sponge titanium inventories remained low, and, together with robust downstream restocking demand, top-tier enterprises proactively adjusted prices, with enterprises showing strong confidence in holding prices firm. The titanium products market saw stable supply and demand: the supply-side operating rate was steady, while demand-side differentiation was evident. Civilian applications were mainly driven by rigid-demand restocking, while orders in high-end fields such as aerospace and military industries were steady. The market recovered steadily, and differences in the pace across segments of the industry chain also set the tone for subsequent market dynamics.

Philippines Market: Tight Supply and Surging Freight Rates Supported Ore Prices to Fluctuate at Highs Philippine nickel ore prices rose sharply this week. In terms of prices, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotes were $64-68/wmt for Ni 1.3% grade, $71-75/wmt for Ni 1.4% grade, and $78-82/wmt for Ni 1.5% grade, up $6 WoW. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $65.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $72.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Supply side, although the Philippines was transitioning into the dry season, mining hubs such as Surigao and Homonhon continued to see heavy rainfall due to a low-pressure area (LPA) east of Mindanao. Although Metro Manila and most parts of Luzon saw hot and sunny weather, the probability of rainfall exceeding 50 mm in Surigao and Caraga remained “very high.” Strong thunderstorms and scattered precipitation were expected to further intensify during March 9 to 13. Affected by the trough of the low-pressure area and the easterlies, persistent rainfall may continue to disrupt open-pit mining and vessel loading operations in southern regions. Market supply remained scarce. Driven by both supply tightness caused by cuts in Indonesia’s RKAB quotas and expected supply gaps, mainstream prices for Philippine nickel ore have surged recently. As of Friday, March 13, nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 5.23 million mt, down 500,000 mt WoW. Current total port inventory was equivalent to about 41,100 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, China’s NPI prices rose this week, with spot transaction prices up about 1,089.9 yuan per nickel unit. As smelters had sufficient stockpiling earlier and showed limited acceptance of recently high-priced nickel ore, most were currently taking a wait-and-see stance. In terms of ocean freight rates, affected by a sharp jump in oil prices, nickel ore freight rates climbed, with the ocean freight rate from the Philippines to Lianyungang reaching $15/mt or above. Looking ahead, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs. Indonesia Market: Under Weather Disruptions and RKAB Policy Clarification, Tight Supply Continued Indonesia's local nickel ore prices rose somewhat this week. Indonesia’s nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) for the first half of March was set at $17,104/dmt, down 3.21% MoM. According to SMM Indonesia nickel ore premium data, average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively. Among them, the port arrivals under domestic trade price for 1.6% grade was $65.2-74.2/wmt. The simultaneous strengthening in premiums this month reflected both the release of smelters’ restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota cuts, while the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up to $24-26/wmt. From the supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 13, Indonesia’s key nickel ore producing areas of Morowali, Konawe, and Halmahera were affected this week by strong thunderstorms and extremely high humidity of up to 94%. Weather continued to fluctuate, causing soil to become highly saturated and seriously hindering mine drying and transport operations. Morowali and Konawe will face a heavy rainfall system over the weekend with precipitation probability as high as 80%, while Halmahera, under high-humidity conditions, is expected to see rainfall intensity rebound again next Friday, with overall logistics capacity remaining constrained. At present, RKAB approvals for most small- and medium-sized mines remained pending. As existing quotas could no longer be used for next month’s production and sales, rising supply uncertainty was pushing nickel ore prices higher. Demand side, as some Indonesian smelters faced uncertainty over nickel ore resources and found it difficult to secure high-grade saprolite ore, nickel ore prices remained firm. To secure raw material supply, some smelters even raised trading bonuses. Overall, although the impact of the current MOMS system failure on mines had largely faded, overall nickel ore supply remained tight. Although spot supply of limonite ore was relatively sufficient, some related production lines were currently running at low load due to a tailings dam landslide accident at some MHP projects in an Indonesian industrial park, leading to temporary weakness in overall demand. However, considering concerns among some Indonesian smelters over RKAB approval uncertainty, raw material stockpiling demand from newly commissioned projects, and continued growth in demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices are expected to closely track saprolite ore and remain high. On the policy side, in response to recent market rumors that “production quotas (RKAB) will be uniformly supplemented by an additional 25%-30%,” Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), clarified on March 3, 2026, that RKAB supplements would be based on individual assessments of enterprise production capacity and compliance, rather than a uniform proportional increase, and indicated that the approval process would start in H2 2026. Officials emphasized that this was a routine regulatory process for resource optimization, rather than a passive countermeasure to the previous output cap policy. Looking ahead, affected by the relatively slow progress of RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices are expected to remain more likely to rise than fall in April.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Center of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Moved Lower, Trading Was Slightly Sluggish Amid Structural Divergence in End-Use Demand]

[SMM Chromium Weekly Review: Costs and Demand Jointly Drove the Market, with Strongly Bullish Sentiment] March 13, 2026: Quotations remained unchanged for the time being, and the chromium market operated steadily...

In the spot market, this week (March 09, 2026-March 13, 2026), supply in the refined lead spot market gradually resumed, and imported lead ingots continued to enter the market, leaving ample spot cargo available in circulation. Downstream inventory was digested slowly, with only limited just-in-time procurement. This week, mainstream transaction prices for primary lead in Henan still traded at slight discounts to the SMM #1 lead average price. Although some traders held prices firm and were reluctant to sell, downstream buyers actively negotiated prices, making transactions at premiums relatively difficult. Supply in Hunan recovered slowly, but remained relatively tight, with smelters and suppliers quoting premiums of 0-25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, and transactions were concluded mainly on rigid demand. This week, the overall fundamentals of the lead spot market remained weak, downstream consumption and stockpiling enthusiasm were poor, and overall spot order transactions were sluggish.