According to SMM data, on July 17, the FOB price of Indonesia MHP nickel rose $146/mt Ni from the previous day, and the FOB price of Indonesia MHP cobalt rose $0/mt Co. The FOB price of Indonesia high-grade nickel matte rose $149/mt Ni.

Weak Downstream Demand, Intermediate Product Payables Under Pressure

[SMM Cobalt-Lithium Morning Briefing: This week, prices in the new energy industry chain continued to diverge. The lithium industry chain was generally weak. The transaction center of lithium ore shifted lower alongside lithium chemical prices, and lithium carbonate fell to around 150,000 yuan/mt. Downstream firms bought the dip at low price levels, but upstream producers held prices firm and held back from selling, intensifying the market tug-of-war. Lithium hydroxide transaction prices declined in tandem, and overall trading remained sluggish. In the cobalt industry chain, demand was weak. Refined cobalt, cobalt sulphate, and cobalt chloride all lacked effective transaction support, while prices of intermediate products and Co3O4 temporarily held steady. Nickel sulphate inventory continued to decline, but downstream stockpiling willingness was insufficient, and prices still faced pressure.]

[7.17 Morning Meeting Minutes] US June PPI declined 0.3% MoM, the first drop since last year, while market expectations were for a flat reading; June PPI rose 5.5% YoY, significantly narrowing from the 6.5% in May; June core PPI YoY growth slowed to 4.7%, with only a 0.2% MoM increase, both below market expectations. On July 16, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract surged in early trading, breaking through 130,000 yuan/mt and briefly hitting 133,000 yuan/mt, with a morning gain of 2.9%; LME nickel simultaneously held above $17,000/mt, rising about 2.5% in early trading. Recently, macro, policy, and cost-side positives re-emerged. Combined with a MACD golden cross, nickel prices holding above the 10-day moving average, and bearish funds taking profits, nickel prices have rebound momentum. However, weak demand and high inventory continue to cap upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade within a 127,000–137,000 yuan/mt range. Going forward, attention will focus on the results of Indonesia's July RKAB quota approval and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Mid-month market trading was sluggish, and nickel salt prices dipped slightly this week.

According to SMM data, on July 16, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel rose by $64/mt Ni from the previous day, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt rose by $19/mt Co, and the FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte rose by $65/mt Ni.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel is $14,987/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt is $50,188/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) are 82.5-83.5, and MHP cobalt payables (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) are 94. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $15,278/mt Ni.

On July 16, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price remained stable.

[7.16 Morning Meeting Minutes] US June CPI rose 3.5% YoY, compared to the expected 3.8% increase and the previous 4.2% rise. US June CPI fell 0.4% MoM, versus the expected 0.1% decline and the previous 0.5% increase. After the release of US June CPI data, traders pushed back their expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes to October. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract drifted lower in morning trading, closing down 0.43% at 128,870 yuan/mt at the end of the morning session. US inflation cooled significantly in June, with the unadjusted core CPI rising 2.6% YoY, below the expected 2.8% and the previous 2.9%. The cooling inflation further pushed back market expectations for US Fed rate hikes, and the US dollar extended its decline. In the short term, nickel prices may see a rebound, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract price range between 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel is $14,923/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt is $50,169/mt Co. The MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) are 82.5-84, and the MHP cobalt payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) is 94. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $15,213/mt Ni.