[Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Plants Gradually Resumed Production; Operating Rates Continued to Rise This Week] This week, the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloy declined compared with before the holiday, mainly because there were still relatively few enterprises that had resumed production, and most alloy plants were expected to arrange production resumptions after the Lantern Festival......

According to SMM data, during the first week of the traditional "Golden March" peak season (March 2 - March 6, 2026), the most-traded stainless steel futures contract (SS2604) exhibited a strong, high-level oscillating trend. This was driven by the resonance of international geopolitical storms and the tone set by China's macroeconomic policies. By the close at 10:15 on March 6, the contract traded higher at 14,235 yuan/mt (approx. $2,063/mt), up 85 yuan/mt (approx. $12/mt) (+0.60%) from last Friday's close of 14,150 yuan/mt (approx. $2,051/mt). The market this week was characterized by "strong expectations but weak reality." A sudden global supply chain crisis and firm raw material costs provided a solid floor for market valuations. However, high spot inventories and the looming pressure of resumed production kept prices cautious when attempting upward breakouts. Macro-Economy: A "Super Macro Week" Defined by Geopolitics and Policy Support On the macroeconomic front, this was undeniably a "super macro week" with exceptionally strong signals from China and the global market. Internationally, a geopolitical "black swan" emerged as Iran claimed the Strait of Hormuz was closed and threatened to strike passing vessels. This extreme event immediately sparked fears of a global supply chain crisis and surging energy expectations. U.S. Federal Reserve officials subsequently voiced concerns over the war's spillover effects and a potential rebound in inflation, significantly cooling expectations for interest rate cuts. However, in the commodities market, trades driven by "inflation hedging" and "supply chain disruptions" boosted the overall premium of the base metals sector. In China, the government work report delivered at the "Two Sessions" set the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5%-5%. It explicitly proposed utilizing capacity regulations and standard-setting to deeply rectify "involutionary" (cut-throat) competition. This policy direction provides strong expectation-driven support for supply-side optimization in traditional Chinese manufacturing. Fundamentals: Inventories Near Peak, Clash of Supply and Demand Imminent Fundamentally, social inventories are showing early signs of peaking, though the market will soon face the test of surging supply. The latest SMM data shows social inventories at 1.0164 million mt this week, a marginal increase of just 300 mt from last week's 1.0161 million mt. The seasonal inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival fully aligns with industry patterns and remains within market expectations. Traders have not resorted to panic selling, keeping short-term inventory pressure manageable. However, a shift is brewing on the supply side. The output reduction caused by concentrated maintenance at Chinese steel mills in February is nearing its end. As mills enter a concentrated resumption phase in March, scheduled production is expected to rise sharply. This surge in supply will clash head-on with recovering demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" period, leading to a phased reshaping of the market's supply-demand dynamics. Costs: Robust Upward Resilience Sets a Solid Floor On the cost side, raw materials continued to show robust upward resilience, establishing a solid baseline for futures prices. Driven by the ongoing fallout from Indonesian nickel ore quotas and premium news, raw material prices rose across the board this week. As of March 6, high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) quotes climbed to 1,088 yuan/mtu (approx. $158/mtu), and high-carbon ferrochrome prices were adjusted upwards to 8,600 yuan/50 mt (approx. $1,246/50 mt). Although mainstream steel mills currently show low acceptance of high NPI prices and remain cautious in procurement—resulting in sparse actual market transactions—the raw material sector has minimal room to yield on price, dominated by expectations of tight ore supply and bullish sentiment. The steady climb in spot costs has effectively capped the downside risk for stainless steel prices. Outlook and Strategy In conclusion, the stainless steel market this week sought a balance amid the fierce tug-of-war between "geopolitical premiums + cost support" and "million-ton inventories + production resumption expectations." The macroeconomic shifts triggered by the Strait of Hormuz crisis, coupled with China's "Two Sessions" mandate to curb cut-throat competition, have injected immense confidence into the bulls regarding macro sentiment. Looking ahead to next week, the market will deeply enter the reality-check phase of the "Golden March" peak season. The core focus will shift to the actual implementation of steel mill resumptions in March and the pace at which downstream end-users digest substantial orders. In the short term, futures prices are expected to maintain wide fluctuations at high levels, underpinned by the cost line. Industry clients are advised to closely monitor geopolitical developments and the pace of spot inventory destocking, while rationally utilizing futures tools to lock in production margins.

This week, ferrous metals held up well within a narrow range. Over the weekend, turmoil in the Middle East and the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict triggered wild swings in the international energy market, sending energy and precious metals sharply higher, while ferrous metals—except coking coal and coke—mostly retreated after rapid rise following the open; mid-week, although there were bullish expectations around the Two Sessions, no new news emerged, the steel market remained relatively stable, and the pattern of raw materials outperforming finished steel products continued; in the latter half of the week, the Two Sessions’ macro conclusions met expectations, but had already been priced in by futures earlier, and high-level fluctuations in international oil prices continued to support raw materials, in turn pushing ferrous metals to edge higher on a steady footing. In the spot market, in the second week after the holiday, the market gradually resumed work and resumed production, but with insufficient momentum from futures, overall willingness to purchase was not high, and transactions were mainly concluded at low prices......

[French Lithium Company Launches Geothermal Well Testing at the Schwabwiller Site in Alsace] The first geothermal exploration well drilled by the French lithium company at the Schwabwiller site in the Grand Ried department of Alsace, France, has begun well testing. This phase will last 3–5 weeks and is intended to verify the resource’s potential for geothermal heating and lithium production. Drilling at the Schwabwiller site began in November 2025, with a target depth of approximately 2,400 meters. The project is expected to drill a pair of wells, with a bottom-hole spacing of about 1,000 meters. The drilling campaign is expected to take a total of seven months. If results are positive, the French lithium company’s project is expected to provide geothermal heating for enterprises, farms, and local communities in northern Alsace. In addition, extracting lithium from geothermal brine will produce lithium with a lower environmental footprint, with carbon dioxide emissions reduced by about 70% compared with lithium currently on the market. Source: https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/ [Li-FT Power Strategic Assessment of the Yellowknife Lithium Carbonate Conversion Plant Project] The global lithium chemicals supply chain is at a crossroads, with traditional production models facing unprecedented pressure from accelerating electrification demand. The market landscape is increasingly tilting toward integrated producers, which can capture value across the full chain—from raw ore mining to refining and producing battery-grade lithium chemicals. This shift reflects a broader strategic realignment across the industry: enterprises are enhancing operational resilience through vertical integration rather than relying on fragmented commodity supply chains. Li-FT Power’s recently announced Yellowknife lithium carbonate conversion plant project is a representative case of this strategic evolution. The proposed facility targets annual production of 30,000 mt LCE, positioning the company within North America’s emerging battery materials ecosystem. This capacity scale reflects an intentional mid-end positioning, balancing capital efficiency with meaningful market participation. Source: https://discoveryalert.com.au/ [Zimbabwe Clarifies Why It Hastily Banned Exports of Some of Its Most Critical Minerals] Recently, Zimbabwe’s Minister of Mines, Polit Kambamura, reiterated this rationale, stating that miners’ under-reporting of declared volumes constitutes a serious problem that cannot be ignored. He noted that the issue has become so widespread that the government was forced to bring forward the disciplinary timetable by one year. The government had originally planned to begin imposing an export ban on lithium concentrates next year, but due to rising production and newly issued export permits, it moved to launch the ban as quickly as possible. At a press conference after a Cabinet meeting in the country’s capital, Harare, Kambamura told reporters: “The ban will remain in effect until the conditions proposed by the government or new expectations are met.” Source: https://africa.businessinsider.com/ [Rock Tech and Siemens Plan to Build a Lithium Converter in Canada] The lithium converter that Rock Tech Lithium is developing in Guben, eastern Germany, is intended to serve as a blueprint for building a similar facility in Canada in cooperation with Siemens. The project will use Siemens’ digital twin technology to digitally replicate, optimize, and scale up the plant’s design and operating processes. The lithium converter that Rock Tech is currently building in Guben, Germany, is designed for an annual output of 24,000 mt of battery-grade lithium hydroxide. The company said this will become the largest facility of its kind in Europe. It is expected to start operations in 2027. The target capacity is equivalent to about 30 Gwh of battery capacity, sufficient to meet demand for about 500,000 EV units per year. Rock Tech also plans to build a similar facility in Red Rock, Ontario, Canada. Siemens AG’s technology will be deployed for the plant’s construction and operations. The two companies have signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding to establish a long-term, multi-phase strategic partnership focused on developing modern lithium converter capacity. Source: https://www.electrive.com/

This week, ternary material prices edged slightly downward. From a raw material perspective, nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, and manganese sulfate prices remained relatively stable with no significant fluctuations. The primary downward pressure on prices came from lithium sulfates: spot prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide saw notable declines in early week, weakening the cost support for ternary materials. Despite the pronounced decline in lithium sulfate prices early this week, ternary cathode material manufacturers showed relatively limited restocking interest. There are two main reasons for this: First, prior to the price adjustment, most cathode manufacturers had already finalized March orders with downstream battery cell makers and are currently in the order delivery phase , maintaining relatively sufficient raw material inventories. Second, manufacturers generally maintain a " buy on rising, not on falling " mentality, viewing this adjustment primarily as short-term volatility influenced by international situations, with no expectation of sustained lithium sulfate price declines. In terms of pricing, although lithium carbonate futures prices experienced adjustments, cathode manufacturers' quotations did not see significant declines, mainly because their raw material costs remain higher than current futures prices . Spot market transactions were also quite subdued this week, with market activity dominated by long-term contract supplies. On the demand side, the EV market showed seasonal recovery, but downstream customers' order fulfillment pace remained slow due to Q1 new energy vehicle sales falling short of expectations . In contrast, e-mobility and consumer electronics markets saw relatively notable growth, primarily driven by some consumer batteries facing "export rush" demand , leading to forward order placements.

[SMM Weekly Magnesium Review: The Short-Term Volatile Pattern in the Magnesium Market Remained Unchanged, with Downstream Resumption and Geopolitical Developments Becoming Key Variables] This week, the domestic dolomite market held steady, with the supply side showing regional structural divergence: top-tier enterprises in the Wutai area halted production, while other major producing regions replenished capacity in a timely manner, keeping overall national supply broadly stable. On the demand side, operating rates at primary magnesium enterprises in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia remained stable, rigid demand was released in an orderly manner, and raw material inventory was ample, reinforcing the foundation for market stability. The domestic magnesium ingot market consolidated at high levels, the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers intensified, and prices fluctuated rangebound. On the supply side, support came from costs and tight spot cargo, enterprises showed strong reluctance to sell, low-priced supply was scarce, and bargaining room was extremely limited. On the demand side, both domestic and overseas demand were weak: in domestic trade, downstream buyers only restocked for rigid demand and purchasing intensity was relatively weak; in export markets, escalation in the Middle East situation disrupted shipping and pushed up ocean freight rates, export shipments were suspended, overseas purchasing plans were delayed, and amid the supply and demand stalemate, prices lacked momentum for a one-way move. The export market for magnesium ingot was hit by fluctuations in ocean freight rates and international developments, with strong wait-and-see sentiment across the industry, weak transactions, and rising uncertainty. The magnesium powder market, supported by raw materials, stayed stable with slight adjustments, mainly fulfilling earlier orders; new orders were few, and both domestic and export markets remained cautious. The magnesium alloy market held up well: magnesium ingot and aluminum ingot prices reinforced cost support, enterprise operating rates rebounded slightly, and demand recovered as downstream die-casting plants gradually resumed operations. Market transactions were mild, and prices were expected to remain largely stable in the short term.

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, the domestic alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW and the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW, with no new capacity added. The 16 green electricity smart hydrogen production systems built by Shuangliang Group for ACME Group’s Oman green ammonia project with a daily output of 300 mt officially commenced shipment. Updates on electrolyzer projects: Xinjiang Hynda Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: The EPC tender was released for an integrated production line project with an annual production of 120,000 mt of green hydrogen and 700,000 mt of green ammonia. It is understood that this project is the largest green ammonia producer in China in terms of both scale and production, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan. At present, company registration, project filing, and equipment selection have been completed. The preliminary site is in Wusu West Industrial Park, covering about 600-800 mu; the next step will be to accelerate project planning and design, EIA, energy assessment, safety assessment, and other pre-project procedures, striving to commence production and achieve results as early as possible. Sinopec Sales Co., Ltd. Xinjiang Jiangbei Petroleum Branch: The first public notice for the EIA information disclosure of the new construction project of the Kunlun Road integrated energy supply station in Karamay District was released. Construction location: opposite the bus company on Kunlun Road, Karamay District. Construction content: the project covers an area of 7,504.01 m², with a newly built station building of 390 m² and a canopy of 450 m²; it will include 4 oil storage tanks, 2 fuel dispensers, 1 set of LNG skid-mounted equipment, 2 fast charging piles, 1 set of water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment, a set of hydrogen storage cylinders, and one set of hydrogen skid-mounted and refueling equipment. Annual sales: 3,500 mt of refined oil products, 800 mt of LNG, and 120 mt of hydrogen. China Coal Pingshuo Group Co., Ltd. : A change announcement was released for the procurement project of complete sets of alkaline electrolyzer equipment and ancillary facilities for Phase I of the 600,000 kW off-grid renewable energy hydrogen production project in the coal mining subsidence area of China Coal Pingshuo Group (green hydrogen coupled with the coal chemical segment), and the bid opening time was postponed to March 17, 2026. It is understood that the project adopts a main-and-auxiliary supply model, and the quotation includes 12×1,200 Nm³/h alkaline electrolyzers, 3×4,800 Nm³/h gas-liquid separation systems, 3×4,800 Nm³/h gas purification systems, etc. Junrui Green Hydrogen Energy (Shangdu County) Co., Ltd. : The 30,000 mt/year hydrogen production project in Lingyuan City completed filing. Total investment was 146,037 yuan; the project covers 375 mu, including an electrolysis workshop, 2 purification and compression workshops, a power station, a hydrogen tank farm, etc.; core equipment includes 84 sets of 1,000 Nm³/h electrolyzers, hydrogen storage tanks, as well as hydrogen purification units, compressors, etc. Inner Mongolia Green Hydrogen Steel Union Technology Co., Ltd.: The filing for the green electricity and green hydrogen steel mill plant construction project, a banner/county industrial project, was successfully completed. It was learned that the project’s main construction location is Guyang County, Baotou City; total investment: 1.02 billion yuan, funded by self-owned capital; planned construction period: from March 2026 to October 2027; construction content: construction of green electricity, green hydrogen, and green steel plant buildings and auxiliary facilities. Inner Mongolia Junhong Technology Co., Ltd.: Cancellation of the Green Methanol Plant Building Construction Project. It was learned that the Green Methanol Plant Building Construction Project of Inner Mongolia Junhong Technology Co., Ltd. is located in Baotou City—Guyang County—Jinshan Industrial Park. The project entity is Inner Mongolia Junhong Technology Co., Ltd., with a total investment of 1.5 billion yuan. Policy Review 1. Premier Li Qiang delivered the Government Work Report at the Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress, emphasizing that efforts must be made to advance the development of a green, low-carbon economy. Specific measures include: improving relevant policies to promote green and low-carbon development; carrying out actions to improve quality, reduce costs, and cut carbon emissions in key industry; further advancing the development of zero-carbon industrial parks and factories; establishing a national low-carbon transition fund and actively fostering emerging growth drivers such as hydrogen energy and green fuels; implementing strong and effective controls over high energy-consuming and high-emission projects, accelerating the phase-out of outdated capacity, while supporting innovation and application of green and low-carbon technology and equipment; improving the mechanism for total resource volume management and the comprehensive conservation system, and strengthening the recycling and utilization of renewable resources. 2. The European Commission stated that it will maintain the fertilizer carbon tariff mechanism, while simultaneously implementing temporary tariff reductions and exemptions for fertilizers such as ammonia and urea, in order to balance environmental protection goals with agricultural cost pressure, ensure fair competition, and stabilize clean energy investment. 3. The European Commission approved a 4 billion euro dedicated fund for electrolyzers, providing a 30% equipment cost subsidy for projects with capacity ≥500MW/year, and setting the 2030 electrolyzer efficiency target for green hydrogen projects at ≥60% (LHV basis). Enterprise Updates Shandong Port Qingdao Port (Group) Co., Ltd. : At the Qianwan Port Area of Shandong Port Qingdao Port, the methanol bunkering vessel “Jianhang Lida” successfully carried out 2,500 mt of green methanol ship-to-ship bunkering operations for two international seagoing vessels. SPIC Green Energy Co., Ltd.: Tender Announcement for the 10th Batch of Centralized Tenders in 2026 (infrastructure projects). This includes multiple tenders related to the Lishu wind and solar power hydrogen-ammonia-methanol project: the foundation pile detection service project for the Lishu wind and solar power green hydrogen biomass-coupled green methanol project; the non-destructive detection service project for the Lishu wind and solar power green hydrogen biomass-coupled green methanol project; and the EPC project for the design and construction of the fine interior fit-out of the office building and canteen in the plant-front area of the chemical section of the Lishu wind and solar power green hydrogen biomass-coupled green methanol project. Hangzhou Fenghua Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : The major project approved by the Zhejiang Provincial Department of Marine Economic Development, jointly applied for with Windey, Baimahu Laboratory, Zhejiang University of Technology, and others—R&D and application demonstration of key equipment for an offshore wind power direct-coupled hydrogen production off-grid system—was approved. Tangshan Haitai New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : Held a symposium with Beijing Energy International Holding Co., Ltd. The two sides focused on areas such as the construction of green electricity transmission corridors into Beijing and green hydrogen pipeline transportation, and conducted discussions and exchanges on deepening cooperation. China Huadian Corporation Ltd. : Party Secretary and Chairman Jiang Yi held talks in Baotou with Chen Zhichang, Member of the Standing Committee of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Party Committee and Party Secretary of the Baotou Municipal Party Committee, and Meng Qingwei, Deputy Party Secretary and Mayor. The two sides exchanged views on further deepening cooperation between central enterprises and local governments. CIMC Enric Holdings Limited​​​​​​​: Formally signed the Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement in Jakarta with PT SAMATOR Group, an Indonesian provider of industrial gases and energy solutions. Based on their deep accumulation in energy equipment, industrial gases, and clean energy, the two sides reached a consensus on long-term strategic cooperation. Zhizi Automobile Technology Co., Ltd.​​​​​​​: Completed a Series B financing of several hundred million yuan, with investors including Shengshi Juxin, Guoxin Venture Capital, Hebei Industrial Investment, Green Era, Youda Shangrong, the Private Economy Fund, Huoshui Capital, and Huitou Zhizao. The funds will mainly be used for R&D of core technologies such as intelligent driving and autonomous driving, replenishment of working capital, and global market expansion. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) published patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested service life of 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing a Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint/Technical Specifications 1. Xi’an Jiaotong University and a Peking University team jointly developed a new-type osmium-based catalyst, significantly improving the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of AEM water electrolysis for hydrogen production, supporting the large-scale deployment of low-cost green hydrogen. 2. Johnson Matthey and Syensqo achieved efficient recycling and reuse of platinum-group metals and ionomers from PEM fuel cells and electrolyzers, significantly reducing the carbon footprint. 3. Relevant research teams from the School of Electrical Engineering of Xi’an Jiaotong University and the National Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment Materials successfully developed a Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF seawater electrolysis bifunctional electrocatalyst. 4.《Technical Specification for Wind and Solar Power + ESS Coupled Green Electricity Electrolysis Hydrogen Production (No. T/CIEP 0272—2025), a group standard, was issued and implemented by the China Industrial Environmental Protection Promotion Association. Zhongneng Dayou Energy Technology Co., Ltd. successfully conducted R&D of a 100 kW-class PEM electrolyzer hydrogen production multi-field coupling test device. 5. GKN Powder Metallurgy announced that it had developed a new-generation high performance, high-porosity, high-purity porous transport layer (HP-PTL) for proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis.

According to SMM, as of February 27, 2026, the days of inventories for domestic aluminum rod plants were recorded at 12.7 days, an increase of 8.6 days from before the holiday.In the first week after the holiday, the weekly operating rate of the domestic aluminum wire and cable industry rebounded to 57%, up 4 percentage points MoM, significantly higher than the pre-holiday low of 53%.

This week, more players entered the solid-state battery industry, with various parties “riding” the hype: Sunstone Development and TONZE stated that their sulphide projects were still in the early R&D stage; QingTao’s Wuhai 2 billion yuan project released its EIA public notice, and a 3.5 GWh production line in Taizhou commenced operations; Suzuki acquired Kanadevia’s solid-state battery business; Yaoshi Lithium Battery completed a 200 million yuan Series A financing round.

SMM March 2nd Report: On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a large-scale military strike on Iran, which promptly announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated sharply and fell into sustained turmoil. As a critical "chokepoint" for global energy transportation, the Strait of Hormuz handles about 30% of global seaborne oil trade. Its blockade directly led to a severe physical disruption in the global energy supply chain, causing international oil prices to surge dramatically, with shipping costs and insurance fees skyrocketing, significantly increasing uncertainty in the energy market. As a key raw material for prebaked anodes used in aluminum production, petcoke is expected to enter a state of supply tightens, cost surges, and quality disturbances under the influence of the geopolitical situation. This change will directly impact the stability of China's petcoke import system, while also substantially raising domestic prebaked anode production costs, creating a chain reaction in the downstream aluminum industry. In terms of the overall distribution of import sources, in 2025, regions and countries with high petcoke import dependency in China showed a tiered characteristic. The first tier, centered around the US and Russia, saw the US accounting for 31%, making it the largest source of petcoke imports for China; Russia followed closely with 17%, together contributing nearly half of the total imports. The second tier was the Middle East, collectively accounting for 15%, serving as an important supplementary segment for China's petcoke imports. Other import sources were more dispersed, with Canada and Brazil each at 5%, and Argentina, Colombia, and Taiwan, China, each at 4%. This diversification of smaller sources enriched China's petcoke import supply system, but the influence of individual entities remained relatively limited. Notably, as a key supplementary sector for China's petcoke imports, the highly concentrated internal supply structure of the Middle East became the core reason for the impact of the deteriorating geopolitical situation on China's import market. In detail, the supply landscape of the Middle East exhibited a "dominance by one, supplemented by a few" feature: Saudi Arabia, with a 64% share, held an absolute dominant position, being the core exporter of petcoke from the Middle East to China; Oman ranked second with 22%; Kuwait accounted for 12%, with other regions providing only minor supplements. In terms of imported product specifications, petcoke from the Middle East mainly consisted of medium- to high-sulfur varieties, with different source countries focusing on specific types: petcoke from Saudi Arabia primarily included high-sulfur sponge coke and high-sulfur shot coke, from Oman mainly shot coke, and from Kuwait mainly medium-sulfur sponge coke. These types of petcoke are primarily used for blending in the production of prebaked anodes, serving as a crucial raw material supplement for the domestic prebaked anode industry. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has a multi-dimensional impact on the petroleum coke market: On one hand, the blockade leads to a complete halt in the export of Middle Eastern petroleum coke, significantly reducing the international circulation of petroleum coke. The arrival cycle for petroleum coke imported by China from the Middle East is notably extended, directly exacerbating the tightness of domestic import supply. On the other hand, some refineries in the region are affected by military conflicts, limiting their production activities and further contracting the overall supply of petroleum coke, creating a dual squeeze on the supply side. Meanwhile, the surge in international oil prices drives up the production costs of petroleum coke from refinery delayed coking units, providing a solid bottom support for petroleum coke prices. Coupled with the sharp rise in international shipping freight and war risk insurance premiums, these factors collectively push petroleum coke prices into a more likely to rise than fall trajectory. In summary, this geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is a significant external shock to the 2026 petroleum coke-prebaked anode-aluminum industry chain. The triple pressures of supply tightening, cost surges, and quality disruptions will continue to be passed down: Petroleum coke prices will keep rising, pushing up the production costs of prebaked anodes, which in turn will elevate the production costs of aluminum. If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, the entire industry chain will gradually enter a phase characterized by high costs, low inventory, and strong fluctuations. Ensuring supply chain security and controlling enterprise costs will become the core challenges facing the industry.