SMM April 22: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 0.12%. SHFE aluminum was up 0.26%. SHFE lead was down 0.59%, and SHFE zinc was up 0.23%. SHFE tin was down 0.58%, and SHFE nickel was up 0.79%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures were up 0.17%, and the most-traded alumina contract was up 0.14%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract was up 0.21%. The most-traded silicon metal contract was up 0.4%. The most-traded polysilicon futures were up 5.24%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.64%, rebar and hot-rolled coil were both up less than 0.5%, and stainless steel was down 0.1%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract was up 1.31%, and the most-traded coke contract was up 1.12%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:48, LME metals were nearly all up. LME copper was up 0.79%. LME aluminum was up 0.59%, LME lead was down 0.26%, and LME zinc was up 0.1%. LME tin was up 1.44%. LME nickel was up 1.02%. Precious metals, as of 11:48, COMEX gold was up 1.2%, and COMEX silver was up 2.04%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract was down 0.54%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract was down 1.91%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures were down 0.17%, and the most-traded palladium futures were up 0.35%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract was up 3.92%, at 2,205.7 points. As of 11:48 on April 22, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot was mainly traded at 23,980-24,120 yuan/mt, Zijin brand at 24,060-24,140 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc ingot at around 23,980-24,060 yuan/mt. Zijin was quoted at a discount of 30-40 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. Huzinc was quoted at 25,170 yuan/mt. #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of 50-120 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. Tianjin was quoted at a discount of around 50 yuan/mt against Shanghai. Macro front China: [Ministry of Emergency Management: China's total work safety accidents dropped significantly in Q1] April 22 - According to the Ministry of Emergency Management, China's total work safety accidents dropped significantly in Q1, with the safety situation in most regions and industry sectors improving notably. Shen Zhanli, Director of the Press and Publicity Department of the Ministry of Emergency Management, said that a total of 3,258 work safety accidents of various types occurred nationwide in Q1, down 26.7% YoY. No extraordinarily serious accidents occurred, but major accidents and significant near-miss incidents were frequent in some regions and industry sectors. Illegal production activities in sectors such as mining, chemicals, fire safety, and fireworks showed signs of resurgence. The pressure to prevent and curb major and extraordinarily serious accidents further increased, and the work safety situation remained challenging. Natural disaster side, China's Q1 was dominated by low-temperature freezing rain and snow, snowstorms, wind and hail, and earthquakes, with droughts, floods, forest fires, and geological disasters also occurring to varying degrees. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data) [China Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce: Motorcycle Exports Reached 4.6268 Million Units in Q1] Based on customs data analysis, from January to March 2026, China's motorcycle exports totaled 4.6268 million units, up 13.49% compared to the same period last year, with an export value of $3.014 billion, up 16.93% compared to the same period last year. Latin America was the largest export destination, with exports of 1.4812 million units, down 8.47% YoY, and an export value of $963 million, down 0.99% YoY. Africa saw the largest growth, with exports of 1.753 million units, up 44.95% YoY, and an export value of $949 million, up 48.01% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) [PV Patent Pool Expert Advisory Committee Inauguration Ceremony and PV Patent Pool Co-building Seminar Held in Beijing] On April 21, the PV Patent Pool Expert Advisory Committee Inauguration Ceremony and PV Patent Pool Co-building Seminar was held in Beijing. The establishment of the Expert Advisory Committee aimed to provide regulatory supervision and guidance over the construction and operation of China's PV patent pool, promoting its lawful, compliant, and healthy development. After prior solicitation, selection, and review, the first batch of 14 experts were selected, covering fields including intellectual property management, PV technology R&D, legal litigation, and antitrust research. At the event, representatives from enterprises including TrinaSolar Co., Ltd., JA Solar Technology Co., Ltd., and Jinko Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. jointly launched the PV patent pool in the TOPCon battery technology field. (National Industrial Information Security Development Research Center) [PBOC Net Injected 5.5 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations] The PBOC conducted 6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 5.5 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar side: As of 11:48, the US dollar index was up 0.01% at 98.4. Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh rebutted Democrats' concerns that he would become the President's "puppet," repeatedly emphasizing that he would be an independent decision-maker if his nomination was confirmed by the Senate. Warsh stated at the Senate Banking Committee hearing on Tuesday that a series of reforms should be made to how the US Fed makes decisions, including establishing a new inflation response framework and improving communication with the public. But he provided few details and dodged questions about the near-term path of short-term interest rates. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 98.3%. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report stated that Warsh's testimony demonstrated the highly difficult balancing act he faces. On one hand, he needs to "please" Trump to a certain extent, thus acknowledging Trump's right to voice opinions on interest rates; on the other hand, he needs to earn the trust of the market and the US Fed internally, thus emphasizing the mission of price stability and the independence of the US Fed. Although Warsh's performance was unsatisfactory when facing questions from Democratic senators, this has a relatively small impact on whether Warsh can succeed Powell. Whether Warsh can successfully pass the Senate Banking Committee vote depends on whether he can secure the support of Republican Senator Tillis. We believe Trump will most likely TACO and withdraw the investigation into Powell to help Warsh pass the Senate vote. Warsh emphasized during the Q&A session that he would not become Trump's "puppet," and the market leaned toward hawkish trading. Warsh's ideas on reforming the US Fed deserve more market attention, especially his proposal that the US Fed needs a new inflation framework and his criticism of the US Fed's current approach to forward guidance. Warsh emphasized that the US Fed should shrink its balance sheet, with interest rates as the primary policy tool. However, we still believe Warsh's plan to shrink the balance sheet requires lengthy preparation, and the pace of implementation will be gradual. A CICC research report stated that Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh attended the Senate Banking Committee hearing, revealing his core policy stance of a dual-track approach of "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts": at the balance sheet level, he explicitly opposed normalizing quantitative easing (QE), advocating for a gradual and orderly reduction of the US Fed's balance sheet size, exiting quasi-fiscal functions, and returning it to its monetary policy mandate; at the interest rate level, although he made no explicit commitment, his statements already showed an inclination toward cutting interest rates. In our view, Warsh's policy stance is not only an adjustment to the monetary transmission mechanism but also an extension of the "America First" strategy into the monetary domain amid the wave of deglobalization — shifting from a "global central bank" that endlessly supplies liquidity to the world, toward a new approach that firmly controls the monetary spigot, focuses on domestic productivity, and emphasizes monetary sovereignty. We believe this shift means the narrative of persistently excessive US dollar liquidity will face correction, and assets that purely rely on liquidity-driven gains and benefit from "US dollar over-issuance" may come under pressure. (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: Japan's March imports and exports continued to grow, but the trade outlook for the coming months remains clouded by the Middle East war. Yasuhisa Irie, an economist at Mizuho Securities, said that in the short term, Japan's total import value is likely to remain roughly flat, as supply constraints suppressed imports and high energy prices eroded consumer confidence, thereby limiting demand. Takeshi Minami, an economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, expected the consequences of energy shortages to become more apparent starting in April. Minami said: "Although the Japanese government has begun to release crude oil reserves and claims to have secured alternative procurement routes that do not rely on the Strait of Hormuz, a prolonged blockade could lead to significant economic contraction in emerging markets with smaller oil reserves." He added that this situation is expected to harm the Japanese economy in multiple ways, including a slowdown in economic activity and intensified inflationary pressures. (Jin10 Data) Data: The preliminary eurozone consumer confidence index for April, the UK March CPI monthly rate, and the UK March retail price index monthly rate will be released today. In addition, US Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech at the Brookings Institution. Crude oil: As of 11:48, oil prices in both markets edged down, with WTI falling 0.22% and Brent falling 0.07%. Oil prices moved sideways as the market weighed the prospects of US-Iran peace negotiations. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventory declined. For the week ending April 17, API crude oil inventory was -4.47 million barrels (expectations: -1.8 million barrels, previous: 6.101 million barrels). For the same week, API gasoline inventory was -5.165 million barrels (expectations: -1.333 million barrels, previous: 626,000 barrels). (Jin10 Data) Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Lloyd Chan said in a research note that the US-Iran conflict appeared to have shifted into a prolonged stalemate rather than a swift resolution. The senior currency analyst said the US appeared to be using a blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Tehran into a peace deal, or risk further military escalation. Chan said: "For markets, this environment means continued disruption to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz." The analyst added that pressure points were more evident in oil-sensitive currencies, including the Philippine peso and the Thai baht. (Jin10 Data) A research report from CITIC Securities noted that the recurring tensions in the Strait of Hormuz indicated that the impact of this round of events on the oil shipping market was still unfolding according to a three-phase logic. After a brief reopening on April 17, Iran reimposed the blockade on April 18, indicating that the situation had not yet stabilized. Regardless of how the U.S.-Iran standoff develops going forward, the market is still in the process of the Hormuz blockade shock gradually transmitting to oil shipping fundamentals. Oil shipping freight rates evolved in three stages: rates rose during the conflict period, vessel redeployment lengthened shipping distances and pushed up the freight rate center, and after the reopening, a rush to secure oil may drive freight rates higher for over two months. Currently, the third stage — the inevitable global scramble for crude oil following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — will inevitably transmit to the oil tanker shipping market. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

On April 21, Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. released its first quarter report for 2026. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating revenue of 98.498 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.79% compared to 78.928 billion yuan in the same period last year; total profit reached 31.584 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 115.03%; net profit was 25.166 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.90%. In the lithium segment, the company achieved lithium carbonate equivalent production of 16,000 tons. Several lithium mine projects are steadily ramping up capacity, and the northeastern project of the Manono Lithium Mine is expected to be completed and commence production in June 2026.

Benefiting from both rising gold prices and increasing volumes, Zijin Mining delivered a stellar report card. In Q1, the company achieved revenue of 98.5 billion yuan, up 24.79% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm reached 20.1 billion yuan, surging 97.50% YoY, nearly doubling; total profit soared 115% YoY to 31.6 billion yuan, with all core financial metrics hitting record highs across the board. The underlying logic behind the accelerating profitability was clearly identifiable: the historic breakthrough in gold prices served as the most direct catalyst. The unit price of gold ingots jumped from 661.83 yuan/g in the same period last year to 1,089.04 yuan/g, a gain of over 64%, and the gross margin of mine-produced gold expanded from 52.91% to 69.60%; silver prices also surged in tandem, soaring from 5.50 yuan/g to 15.33 yuan/g, with the gross margin of mine-produced silver leaping to a remarkable 85.59%. The company's overall mine enterprise gross margin rose from 59.94% to 71.01%, and the comprehensive gross margin also climbed from 22.89% to 36.33%, with the price dividend fully realized. Meanwhile, the rise of the lithium segment was reshaping the company's profit structure. Lithium carbonate equivalent production reached 16,229 mt in Q1, compared to only 1,376 mt in the same period last year, up over 10 times YoY, with an average selling price of 101,456 yuan/mt and a gross margin as high as 61.44%. The company expects full-year 2026 lithium carbonate production to reach 120,000 mt, and plans to increase it to 270,000–320,000 mt by 2028, at which point it will rank among the world's largest lithium ore producers. The lithium business is evolving from a marginal increment to a core profit engine. Gold Prices Exceeded Expectations, with the Gold Segment Contributing Core Profits Gold was the largest engine of profit growth this quarter. The company's mines produced 23,497 kg of gold, up 23% YoY, benefiting not only from volume growth but also from a price tailwind. The average price of gold ingots reached 1,089.04 yuan/g, and the average price of gold concentrates reached 1,010.55 yuan/g, up approximately 65% and 64% YoY, respectively. The sources of incremental growth also warranted attention. Zijin Gold International's newly acquired Akyem Gold Mine in Ghana and Ridgold Polymetallic Mine in Kazakhstan, acquired in 2025, had begun contributing production, with the benefits of external M&A gradually being released. Under the resonance of high gold prices and volume growth, the gross margin of mine-produced gold business surged significantly: the gold ingot gross margin rose from 52.91% to 69.60%, and the gold concentrates gross margin climbed from 71.05% to 80.89%, delivering a notable boost to overall profits. Copper: Kamoa-Kakula Production Cuts Dragged Down Output, While Other Mines Advanced Steadily The copper segment produced 259,214 mt of mine-produced copper in Q1, down from 287,571 mt in the same period last year, primarily due to a sharp decline in equity production at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine — plunging from 59,163 mt in the same period last year to 27,361 mt, a drop of over 50%. Excluding this disruption, the company's other copper mines all advanced in an orderly manner as planned. Of particular note was the Julong Copper Mine Phase II, which was officially commissioned in late January 2026 and contributed 60,000 mt of mine-produced copper in Q1. The capacity was still in the ramp-up stage, with further incremental output expected going forward. Rising copper prices also effectively offset the volume pressure. The average price of copper concentrates rose from 60,179 yuan/mt to 81,543 yuan/mt, with the gross margin further improving from 65.05% to 70.84%; the gross margins of electrodeposition copper and copper cathode also expanded to 61.61% and 56.20%, respectively. The smelting copper business had a gross margin of only 0.32% due to thin processing profits, but scale effects still enabled it to contribute a considerable absolute profit amount. Lithium Segment: A Leap from Zero to One, Targeting the World's Largest by 2028 The lithium business was the segment with the most dramatic changes in this quarterly report. Lithium carbonate equivalent production reached 16,229 mt (with Q1 sales of 13,329 mt), achieving an order-of-magnitude expansion from the base of 1,376 mt in the same period last year, driven by the capacity ramp-up following the successive commissioning of multiple projects including the 3Q Salt Lake lithium mine, the Lagocuo Salt Lake lithium mine, and the Xiangyuan hard-rock lithium mine. Profitability was equally impressive — lithium carbonate had an average selling price of 101,456 yuan/mt and a gross margin of 61.44%, second only to silver and ranking as the second highest among all products, reflecting the inherent cost advantages of salt lake lithium resources. In stark contrast, the lithium carbonate gross margin in Q4 last year was only 24.59%, surging nearly 37 percentage points within just one quarter, benefiting from both improved product mix and a cyclical recovery in lithium prices. Of greater strategic significance was the long-term plan: the main mining and processing workflow of the Manono lithium mine northeast project had been fully connected, and is expected to be completed and commissioned in June this year; the company plans to achieve lithium carbonate equivalent production of 270,000–320,000 mt by 2028, at which point it will become one of the world's largest lithium ore producers. Management has explicitly positioned the lithium segment as the "third pillar" core profit source after copper and gold. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: Ample Ammunition, Strong Foundation for Expansion Financial structure side, total assets reached 549.9 billion yuan at the end of Q1, up 7.41% from the beginning of the year; the cash and bank balance was 99.4 billion yuan, a significant increase of 33.8 billion yuan from 65.6 billion yuan at the beginning of the year, with cash and cash equivalents reaching 90.3 billion yuan at period-end. The ample cash reserves provided sufficient ammunition for the company to pursue global mine M&A opportunities and fund capital expenditures on projects under construction. Net assets side, equity attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm reached 200.4 billion yuan, up 8.02% from the beginning of the year; the weighted average return on equity (ROE) reached 10.35%, up 3.23 percentage points from 7.12% in the same period last year, with capital return efficiency continuing to improve. The liability side saw some expansion, with short-term borrowings increasing from 32.3 billion yuan to 41.2 billion yuan, bonds payable rising from 47.4 billion yuan to 56.3 billion yuan, and total liabilities amounting to 282.5 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 21.5 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, primarily to support project construction and capacity expansion. Although the absolute scale of debt rose, the company's debt-servicing capacity was not under pressure given the significant improvement in operating cash flow, with the asset-liability ratio at approximately 51.4%, remaining well under control overall.

SMM April 21 News: Metals Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals mostly fell, with SHFE lead being the only one to rise, up 0.48%. SHFE aluminum led the decline with a drop of 1.23%, while the rest of the metals fell less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 1.95%, and the casting aluminum alloy front-month contract fell 1.36%. In addition, the lithium carbonate front-month contract fell 2.84%, the polysilicon front-month contract rose 2.56%, and the silicon metal front-month contract fell 0.35%. The Europe containerized freight front-month contract rose 1.37% to 2,143.4. On the ferrous metals front, all rose except stainless steel. Stainless steel fell 1%, while hot-rolled coil and rebar both rose over 0.7%, with hot-rolled coil up 0.72% and rebar up 0.76%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.53% and coke rose 2.42%. On the overseas market front, as of 15:03, overseas base metals all fell except LME lead. LME lead rose 0.28%, while the rest of the metals fell less than 1%. On the precious metals front, as of 15:03, COMEX gold fell 0.7% and COMEX silver fell 1.35%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.08% and SHFE silver fell 2.75%. In addition, the platinum front-month contract fell 1.08% and the palladium front-month contract fell 1.01%. Market data as of 15:03 today Macro Front China: [Good Start! China's Raw Material Industry Value-Added Up 4.6% YoY in Q1] According to a press conference held by the State Council Information Office this morning, China's raw material industry achieved a good start in Q1. Data showed that in Q1, the value-added of the raw material industry was up 4.6% YoY. Among them: the value-added of the petrochemical and chemical industry was up 7.4% YoY, and the value-added of the non-ferrous metals industry was up 2.6% YoY. Zhang Yunming, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated that in Q1, the cement industry reduced and retired nearly 30 million mt of capacity through capacity replacement with reduction. Meanwhile, the revenue of the green building materials industry grew steadily, and the number of certified green building material products increased 5% compared to the end of 2025. Innovation achievements in the raw material sector also accelerated, with China's independently developed T1200-grade ultra-high-strength carbon fiber industrial-grade product making its global debut, expected to be deeply applied in strategic emerging industries such as aerospace, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots. (CCTV News) [MIIT: Fully Activate the Innovation Engine, Accelerate Frontier Material Development and Key Material Breakthroughs] Zhang Yunming, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated at the State Council Information Office press conference that in Q1, they implemented the new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries in detail, focused on promoting the optimization and upgrading of capacity structure, and the raw material industry achieved a good start, with more vigorous transformation steps and a stronger industrial foundation. Next, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to thoroughly implement the deployment of the Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, adhere to a combination of “strengthening the fundamentals” and “fostering the new,” and enhance overall planning and policy supply. On the one hand, it will focus on solidifying the foundation for upgrading traditional industries, promoting optimization of existing capacity and a green, safe transition; on the other hand, it will fully energize the innovation engine, accelerate the layout of frontier materials and breakthroughs in key materials, and provide more solid and reliable material support for developing new quality productive forces and advancing new-type industrialization. (Jinshi Data) [MIIT: Q1 Industrial Robot Production up 33.2% YoY; Drones, AI Glasses, and More Becoming Increasingly Diverse] This morning, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to brief on industrial and information technology development in Q1 2026. In Q1, the application of new technologies such as artificial intelligence accelerated and expanded in the electronics and consumer goods industries; end-use products such as drones and AI glasses became increasingly diverse; and production of products such as industrial robots and integrated circuits rose 33.2% and 24.3% YoY, respectively. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Recorded a Net Injection of 4 billion yuan on the Day] The PBOC conducted 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, it recorded a net injection of 4 billion yuan on the day. (Jinshi Data) US dollar: As of 15:03, the US dollar index was at 98.14, up 0.09%. Middle East tensions pushed up oil prices and supported the dollar; a plunge in US consumer confidence weighed on the real economy; and Japan’s manufacturing sector was under pressure. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman nominee Warsh was set to face a hearing, and how to balance interest rate cuts and inflation became the market focus. (Jinshi Data) The US Congress will hold the first confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman nominee Warsh on Tuesday local time. Warsh will pledge to lawmakers to maintain strict independence on interest rate matters. According to opening remarks obtained in advance by Politico, Warsh said interest rate decisions must be strictly independent of political considerations, and monetary policy should not become a tool for short-term political objectives; he also stressed that the US Fed’s credibility comes from institutional constraints and policy discipline. Warsh said the central bank should listen to differing views, and politicians expressing opinions on interest rates is not a real threat; rather, it is the US Fed’s own discipline and rigorous approach that sustains its independent status. He emphasized that price stability is the US Fed’s shield and pledged to take full responsibility for it, “making no excuses and shirking no responsibility.”Regarding the continuous expansion of the US Fed's functional boundaries in the post-crisis era, Warsh also issued a warning, arguing that the Fed should not extend its reach into fiscal policy or social policy areas where it lacks statutory authority. The US Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to hold a confirmation hearing for Warsh at 10 PM Beijing time on April 21. In addition, on April 21, according to Zhuifeng Trading Desk, Citi laid out clear bullish reasons for interest rate cuts in its latest research report, arguing that crude oil supply disruptions were only temporary disturbances and that the path to interest rate cuts, though bumpy, was clearly directional; Deutsche Bank, however, poured cold water on such optimism, warning that US Fed policy was already at a neutral position and was expected to maintain current interest rates indefinitely. As the two major investment banks clashed in their views, the upcoming March retail sales data is set to become the key litmus test to break the deadlock. This data will not only reveal the true destructive impact of high oil prices on core consumption but will also directly determine the US Fed's near-term policy path. (Wall Street Insights) On the macro front: Data to be released today include the US March retail sales MoM, US February business inventory MoM, US March pending home sales index MoM, Germany's April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK March unemployment rate, UK March jobless claims, Switzerland's March trade balance, and the Eurozone April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. In addition, attention should also be paid to the US Senate Banking Committee's confirmation hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman, and European Central Bank President Lagarde's keynote speech at the 75th anniversary annual reception of the Association of German Banks. Furthermore, China is about to open a new round of refined oil price adjustment window. On the crude oil front: As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets fell together, with WTI down 1.05% and Brent down 0.73%. The market held optimistic expectations that US-Iran negotiations would continue this week. According to information from maritime intelligence firm Tanker Trackers, a tanker belonging to the National Iranian Tanker Company returned to Iran via the relevant maritime blockade line after completing the offloading of approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil in Indonesia. The tanker is currently heading to Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub, and is expected to arrive on the 22nd local time. The tanker reportedly departed Iran in late March, heading for the Riau Islands in Indonesia. (CCTV News) According to foreign media reports, gasoline prices in Australia fell for the third consecutive week as government measures eased the upward pressure on gas station prices triggered by the Iran war. According to data from the Australian Institute of Petroleum, in the week ending last Sunday, the national average gasoline price dropped about 5% to A$2.129 per liter (approximately $1.5279), but remained about 18% higher than at the outbreak of the conflict in early March. Diesel prices fell about 3% to A$3.089 per liter. It was reported that Canberra attempted to ease the domestic fuel crisis by sending delegations to communicate with major trading partners, covering oil transportation costs, relaxing diesel standards, cutting fuel taxes, and tapping into reserves. In addition, the government was conducting a publicity campaign aimed at encouraging Australians to reduce driving. Despite being a major energy producer and exporter, Australia still relied on imports from outside China for most of its refined fuel, and its fuel reserves were among the lowest in developed countries, making the country highly vulnerable to disruptions in global energy supply. (Jin Shi Data APP) SMM Daily Review ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 21 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper dropped 0.64%. SHFE aluminum fell 1.45%. SHFE lead rose 0.33%, SHFE zinc fell 0.76%. SHFE tin dropped 0.31%, SHFE nickel fell 0.69%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.49%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 2.38%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 3.86%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.63%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 2.19%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore gained 0.64%, rebar rose 0.76%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.87%, stainless steel fell 0.53%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.49%, the most-traded coke contract rose 1.96%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper dropped 0.2%. LME aluminum fell 0.89%, LME lead fell 0.1%, LME zinc fell 0.78%. LME tin dropped 0.68%. LME nickel fell 0.6%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold fell 1.32%, COMEX silver dropped 0.21%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.76%, the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 2.7%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.18%, the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.78%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract edged down 0.01%, closing at 2,114.1 points. As of 11:40 on April 21, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 290 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,420 yuan/mt, down 460 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,315 yuan/mt, down 460 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory finally ended its 24-day consecutive decline...... Macro Front China: [Good Start! China's Raw Material Industry Value-Added Output Up 4.6% YoY in Q1] According to a press conference held by the State Council Information Office this morning, China's raw material industry achieved a good start in Q1. Data showed that in Q1, the value-added output of the raw material industry was up 4.6% YoY. Specifically, the petrochemical and chemical industry's value added was up 7.4% YoY, and the non-ferrous metals industry's value added was up 2.6% YoY. Zhang Yunming, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated that in Q1, the cement industry reduced and retired nearly 30 million mt of capacity through volume replacement. Meanwhile, the green building materials industry saw steady revenue growth, with the number of certified green building material products increasing 5% compared to the end of 2025. Innovation achievements in the raw material sector also accelerated, as China's independently developed T1200-grade ultra-high-strength carbon fiber industrial-grade product was launched globally for the first time, and is expected to be extensively applied in strategic emerging industries such as aerospace, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots. (CCTV News) [MIIT: Fully Activate Innovation Engines, Accelerate Frontier Material Deployment and Key Material Breakthroughs] Zhang Yunming, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated at the State Council Information Office press conference that in Q1, detailed implementation of the new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries was carried out, with focused efforts to promote capacity structure optimization and upgrading. The raw materials industry achieved a good start, with more vigorous transformation and a stronger industrial foundation. Going forward, MIIT will thoroughly implement the deployments outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan, adhere to the combination of "consolidating fundamentals" and "fostering new growth," and strengthen overall planning and policy supply. On one hand, efforts will focus on solidifying the foundation for traditional industry upgrading, promoting optimization of existing capacity and green and safe transformation; on the other hand, innovation engines will be fully activated to accelerate frontier material deployment and key material breakthroughs, providing more solid and reliable material support for developing new quality productive forces and advancing new-type industrialization. (Jin10 Data) [MIIT: Industrial Robot Production Up 33.2% YoY in Q1, Drones, AI Glasses and Other Products Increasingly Diversified] This morning, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the industrial and information technology development in Q1 2026. In Q1, new technologies such as artificial intelligence accelerated their application in the electronics and consumer goods industries. End-use products such as drones and AI glasses became increasingly diversified, with industrial robot and integrated circuit production up 33.2% and 24.3% YoY, respectively. (CCTV News) [PBOC Achieved Net Injection of 4 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations Today] The PBOC conducted 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 4 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index was up 0.11% at 98.16. The US Congress was set to hold the first confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman nominee Warsh on Tuesday local time. Warsh was to pledge to lawmakers his strict independence on interest rate matters. According to opening remarks obtained in advance by Politico, Warsh stated that interest rate decisions must be strictly independent of political considerations, and that monetary policy should not be used as a tool for short-term political objectives. He also emphasized that the US Fed's credibility stems from institutional constraints and policy discipline. Warsh said the central bank should listen to diverse opinions, and that politicians expressing views on interest rates does not pose a real threat. On the contrary, it is the US Fed's own discipline and rigor that sustains its independent status. He stressed that price stability is the US Fed's talisman and pledged to assume full responsibility for it, "making no excuses and passing no blame." Warsh also warned against the post-crisis expansion of the US Fed's functional boundaries, arguing that it should not extend its reach into fiscal or social policy areas where it lacks statutory authority. The US Senate Banking Committee was to hold a confirmation hearing for Warsh at 10 PM Beijing time on April 21. Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh believes that upcoming productivity growth may give the US Fed room to lower interest rates, provided that higher productivity enables low-inflation economic growth. However, economist Ed Yardeni, who also expects the economy to benefit from technological advances this decade, disagrees that such an outcome would justify lowering interest rates. Yardeni wrote: "While we share Warsh's optimism on productivity, we have fundamentally different views on what this outcome means for monetary policy." Yardeni argues that faster growth will raise the natural rate of interest, or R*, the rate that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy. He wrote: "If the US Fed lowers the federal funds rate below R*, the risk is that it fuels financial speculation and instability." (Jin Shi Data) On other currencies: The exact timing of the Bank of Japan's next rate hike remains uncertain, with significant uncertainty. However, Goldman Sachs analyst Akira Otani said a rate hike in July remains possible. The economist wrote in a research note: "By then, all the data needed to assess the impact of high oil prices on the economy, wages, and prices will be available." The Bank of Japan is likely to keep rates unchanged this month but may lower its economic growth expectations and raise its FY2026 inflation forecast to reflect heightened tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices. Otani added that the Bank of Japan may consider the uncertainty surrounding this outlook to be high. (Jinshi Data) Data: Today's scheduled releases include US March retail sales MoM, US February business inventories MoM, US March pending home sales index MoM, Germany April ZEW economic sentiment index, UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK March unemployment rate, UK March claimant count, Switzerland March trade balance, and Eurozone April ZEW economic sentiment index. In addition, attention should be paid to the US Senate Banking Committee hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman, and ECB President Lagarde's keynote speech at the 75th anniversary reception of the Association of German Banks. Furthermore, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open in China. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.96% and Brent down 0.58%. Signs of resumed negotiations between Iran and the US boosted market sentiment, while international oil prices slid further on expectations of easing tensions. (Wallstreetcn) Wallstreetcn noted that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei approved the dispatch of a negotiating delegation to Islamabad on the night of April 20. According to Xinhua, citing the US Axios website, US Vice President Vance was expected to depart for the Pakistani capital on the morning of April 21 Eastern Time, with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner also heading to join the negotiations. (Wallstreetcn) The market is still waiting to see whether some form of consultation will take place in Islamabad. Investors generally expect that the likelihood of reaching some preliminary agreement is higher than that of a comprehensive deal. Currently, the market is mainly reacting to a sentiment shift from optimism to concern. However, it is widely believed that the most severe phase of the crisis and the accompanying energy supply disruptions may have passed. (Jinshi Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 20: Metals Market: As of the daytime close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE nickel declining. SHFE aluminum fell 1.49% and SHFE nickel fell 0.9%. The rest of the metals rose, with SHFE zinc up 0.69% and the others gaining less than 0.6%. The alumina front-month contract rose 0.43%, while the casting aluminum front-month contract fell 1.31%. Additionally, the lithium carbonate front-month contract rose 2.6%, the silicon metal front-month contract rose 1.05%, and the polysilicon front-month contract hit the daily limit again during intraday trading, closing at 42,955 yuan/mt with a 9% gain. The Europe containerized freight front-month contract rose 0.38% to 2,103.2. Ferrous metals all rose except stainless steel, which fell 0.47%. Hot-rolled coil, rebar, and iron ore all gained over 1% (hot-rolled coil 1.17%, rebar 1.24%, iron ore 1.16%). Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 2.77% and coke rose 2.27%. Overseas market, as of 15:07, all metals fell except LME nickel, which led the gains with a 1.36% rise. The rest declined, with LME copper leading the losses at 0.63%. Precious metals, as of 15:07, COMEX gold fell 1.5% and COMEX silver fell 2.67%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.08% and SHFE silver rose 1.34%. Additionally, the platinum front-month contract fell 0.18% and the palladium front-month contract fell 0.18%. Market Data as of 15:07 Today Macro Front China: [NEA: Total Electricity Consumption Reached 2,514.1 billion kWh, Up 5.2% YoY, January-March] The National Energy Administration released March electricity consumption data. From January to March, total electricity consumption reached 2,514.1 billion kWh, up 5.2% YoY. By sector, the primary industry consumed 33.6 billion kWh, up 7.1% YoY. The secondary industry consumed 1,598.7 billion kWh, up 4.7% YoY; of which, industrial electricity consumption was 1,583.6 billion kWh, up 4.9% YoY, and high-tech and equipment manufacturing consumed 274.6 billion kWh, up 8.6% YoY. The tertiary industry consumed 483.3 billion kWh, up 8.1% YoY; of which, EV charging and battery swapping services and internet data services consumed 37.6 billion and 22.9 billion kWh respectively, with growth rates of 53.8% and 44.0%. Urban and rural residential electricity consumption was 398.5 billion kWh, up 3.4% YoY. [April LPR Unchanged: Both 5-Year and 1-Year Rates Held Steady for the Eleventh Consecutive Month] The April LPR was announced: PBOC kept the 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively, unchanged for the eleventh consecutive month. [Foshan's Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Policy Is Here! First Batch Involves 22 Residential Projects] Recently, the Notice on Organizing the First Batch of Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Program by the Foshan Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau was officially released. This is not merely an encouraging document; it is a solution that systematically clears bottlenecks in housing replacement through model innovation and a policy package. It aims to drive the real estate market's transition from "one-sided transactions" to a "virtuous cycle between existing and new housing stock," achieving a win-win outcome for residents, enterprises, and the market. The innovation of Foshan's trade-in policy lies in bringing multiple real estate enterprises into the program: Foshan Anju, Chancheng Anju, Nanhai Youju, Shunde Chengtie, Gaoming Airport Construction, and Sanshui Anju serve as acquisition entities, while Foshan Chengfa, Foshan Urban Renewal, Foshan Lianzhi, Heyue Yaji, Shunkong Chengtou, Yongdeli Commerce, Sanshui Chanfa, and Miaohui Real Estate provide new housing sources. This model determines the value of existing homes through negotiation, establishes a "contract termination protection period" to avoid blindly pushing for lower prices, thereby completing the "sell old, buy new" closed loop and serving as a market stabilizer. (Foshan Release) US Dollar: As of 15:07, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.26. According to a CITIC Securities research report, US Fed Governor Miran and three other economists recently co-published a working paper titled "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet," whose structure bears similarities to the previously widely discussed "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System." The paper challenges the conventional view that the US Fed cannot significantly reduce its balance sheet, arguing that reserve demand is largely determined by the regulatory environment and that balance sheet reduction can be achieved without causing unexpected market stress by adjusting the regulatory framework, curbing precautionary motives, and addressing other sources of reserve demand. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the paper estimates the potential balance sheet reduction space at $1.2 trillion to $2.1 trillion. We believe the "balance sheet reduction guide" has a certain degree of real-world feasibility, but some options are somewhat idealistic. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99.5%. The probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points by June was 4.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points was 0.5%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Germany's March PPI month-on-month rate, Canada's March CPI month-on-month rate, and other data were to be released today. Also worth noting: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered speeches; Trump said a US delegation would arrive in Islamabad on the evening of the 20th for negotiations, while Iran denied reports of a second round of talks being held in Islamabad. Crude oil: As of 15:07, oil prices in both markets surged, with WTI up 6.42% and Brent up 5.9%. Iran had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices sharply higher. On the 19th local time, an Iraqi oil ministry official said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would block the export of nearly 4 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil over the next three days. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a statement on the 18th saying that, due to the US violating ceasefire commitments and failing to lift the naval blockade on Iranian ports and vessels, the Strait of Hormuz would be blocked starting that evening. (CCTV News) Gary Pedersen, head of trading house Gunvor, warned that the oil market was facing more turbulence as Middle East tensions collided with seasonal slowdown in crude oil demand, increasing the likelihood of further sharp and unpredictable fluctuations in crude oil prices. (Jin10 Data) The International Energy Agency forecast that global crude oil demand would decline by 1.5 million barrels per day in Q2, the largest drop since the COVID-19 pandemic. OPEC's forecast was relatively mild, projecting a daily decline of 500,000 barrels. (Jin10 Data) A CICC research report noted that as the Iran situation entered its 7th week, the situation saw a further turning point. Although the first round of peace talks "collapsed," both the US and Iran "announced" the reopening of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which still largely boosted optimistic sentiment in the market, despite subsequent reversals. This was largely in line with our base case assumption: while short-term reversals remain possible, a complete loss of control over the medium term is not the base case scenario, as Trump still has midterm elections to consider, and a comprehensive and uncontrollable escalation serves neither side's interests. Under this scenario, the Brent crude oil price center would gradually pull back to around $80 in Q2 and Q3, and the US Fed could still cut interest rates. (Jin10 Data APP) SMM Daily Review ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 20: Metals market: As of the midday close, most base metals on the domestic market rose. SHFE copper was up 0.79%. SHFE aluminum was down 1.22%. SHFE lead was up 0.18%, and SHFE zinc was up 1.08%. SHFE tin was up 0.26%, and SHFE nickel was down 0.88%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.1%, and the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.32%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 1.96%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 1.05%. The most-traded polysilicon futures hit the daily limit up with a 9% gain. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.77%, rebar up 0.8%, hot-rolled coil up 0.9%, and stainless steel down 0.23%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract was up 3.13%, and the most-traded coke contract was up 2.56%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, most LME metals rose. LME copper was down 0.21%. LME aluminum was up 0.66%, LME lead edged up, and LME zinc was up 0.61%. LME tin was down 0.28%. LME nickel was up 1.53%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold was down 1.32%, and COMEX silver was down 1.8%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.1%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 1.84%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.47%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.23%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract was up 0.23%, at 2,100 points. As of 11:40 on April 20, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 260 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,880 yuan/mt, up 840 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,775 yuan/mt, up 835 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Returning from the weekend, Guangdong inventory continued to decline sharply and had now fallen for 24 consecutive trading days, mainly due to low arrivals...... Macro Front China: [National Energy Administration: Total electricity consumption reached 2,514.1 billion kWh cumulatively from January to March, up 5.2% YoY] The National Energy Administration released data on total electricity consumption for March. From January to March, total electricity consumption reached 2,514.1 billion kWh cumulatively, up 5.2% YoY. In terms of electricity consumption by sector, the primary industry consumed 33.6 billion kWh, up 7.1% YoY. The secondary industry consumed 1,598.7 billion kWh, up 4.7% YoY; of which, industrial electricity consumption was 1,583.6 billion kWh, up 4.9% YoY, and high-tech and equipment manufacturing consumed 274.6 billion kWh, up 8.6% YoY. The tertiary industry consumed 483.3 billion kWh, up 8.1% YoY; of which, electricity consumption for charging and battery swapping services and internet data services was 37.6 billion kWh and 22.9 billion kWh respectively, with growth rates reaching 53.8% and 44.0% respectively. Urban and rural residential electricity consumption was 398.5 billion kWh, up 3.4% YoY. [April LPR Rates Released: Both 5-Year and 1-Year Rates Remained Unchanged for the Eleventh Consecutive Month] The April Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was released: PBOC kept the 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively, unchanged for the eleventh consecutive month. [Foshan Launches Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Program! First Batch Involves 22 Property Projects] Recently, the "Notice of Foshan Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau on Organizing the First Batch of Commercial Housing Trade-in Program" was officially released. This is not merely an encouraging document; it is a comprehensive solution that systematically addresses bottlenecks in housing replacement through model innovation and a policy package. It aims to drive the real estate market's transition from "one-sided transactions" to a "virtuous cycle between existing and new housing stock," achieving a win-win outcome for residents, enterprises, and the market. The innovation of Foshan's trade-in policy lies in the involvement of multiple real estate enterprises: Foshan Anju, Chancheng Anju, Nanhai Youju, Shunde Chengtie, Gaoming Airport Construction, and Sanshui Anju serve as acquisition entities; while Foshan Chengfa, Foshan Urban Renewal, Foshan Lianzhi, Heyue Yaji, Shunkong Chengtou, Yongdeli Commerce, Sanshui Chanfa, and Miaohui Real Estate provide new housing sources. This model determines the value of existing homes through negotiation, establishes a "contract termination protection period" to avoid blindly pushing for lower prices, thereby completing the "sell old, buy new" closed loop and serving as a market stabilizer. (Foshan Release) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index was up 0.05% at 98.28. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Fed in April was 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99.5%. The probability of the US Fed cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by June was 4.5%, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged was 95%, and the probability of cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points was 0.5%. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report noted that US Fed Governor Milan and three other economists recently co-published a working paper titled "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet," whose structure bears similarities to the previously hotly debated "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System." The paper challenges the conventional view that the US Fed cannot significantly reduce its balance sheet, arguing that reserve demand is largely determined by the regulatory environment and that balance sheet reduction can be achieved without causing unexpected market stress by adjusting the regulatory framework, curbing precautionary motives, and other sources of reserve demand. Monte Carlo simulations estimated the potential balance sheet reduction space at $1.2 trillion to $2.1 trillion. We believe the "balance sheet reduction guide" has a degree of real-world feasibility, but some options are somewhat idealistic. (Jin10 Data) On other currencies: Asian Development Bank President Kanda Masato stated that the yen could face further pressure if the market perceives the Bank of Japan as acting too slowly in addressing inflation risks. Kanda Masato, who previously served as Japan's top foreign exchange diplomat, told reporters on Friday evening that investors buy US dollars during periods of global tension partly because the US is an oil exporter, but even if these positions are unwound, the yen would find it difficult to appreciate significantly against the US dollar. He said: "The biggest reason is the interest rate differential. As the market pays particular attention to what the US Fed might do, if many people believe the Bank of Japan will fall behind the curve in addressing inflation risks, the yen will be left behind." Kanda Masato said during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group meetings in Washington this week that investors could also sell the yen if they are concerned about Japan's fiscal sustainability. (Jin10 Data) On data: Germany's March PPI month-over-month rate and Canada's March CPI month-over-month rate, among other data, were to be released today. Also worth watching: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered speeches; Trump said a US delegation would arrive in Islamabad on the evening of the 20th for negotiations, while Iran denied reports of a second round of talks being held in Islamabad. On crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets surged significantly, with WTI up 5.73% and Brent up 5.38%. Last Friday, the market was still celebrating ceasefire prospects, but within 72 hours over the weekend, the situation took a sharp turn — the Strait of Hormuz was closed again, the US seized an Iranian vessel, and Trump issued tough threats, quickly dashing the market's optimistic sentiment. (Wall Street Insights) The Strategic Petroleum Reserve Project Management Office website under the US Department of Energy (DOE) released information on the 17th stating that it would lend over 26 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 9 oil enterprises. This was the third batch of petroleum reserves released by the Trump administration to stabilize oil prices since the US-Israel-Iran conflict began on February 28. (Jin10 Data) Australia's Viva Energy Group stated that its refinery in Geelong, Australia, would increase production of diesel, aviation fuel, and gasoline to 90% of full capacity in the coming weeks, after a major fire forced it to reduce production. The company stated that its inventory was sufficient to cover the production decline and was not expected to impact clients. (Jin10 Data) A CICC research report stated that as the Iran situation entered its 7th week, the situation saw further positive developments. Although the first round of negotiations "collapsed," both the US and Iran "announced" the reopening of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which still largely boosted market optimism, despite subsequent fluctuations. This was largely consistent with our base case assumption: while short-term reversals remain possible, the situation ultimately spiraling out of control in the medium term is not the base case scenario. Trump still has midterm elections to consider, and a comprehensive and uncontrollable escalation does not serve either side's interests. Under this scenario, the Brent crude oil price center would gradually pull back to around $80 in Q2 and Q3, and the US Fed could still cut interest rates. Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM, April 17: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market rose nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.14%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.67%. SHFE lead fell 0.39%, and SHFE zinc rose 0.68%. SHFE tin rose 0.34%, and SHFE nickel rose 2.05%. In addition, the continuous contract for casting aluminum futures edged up slightly, and the alumina continuous contract rose 0.68%. The lithium carbonate continuous contract rose 1.84%. The silicon metal continuous contract rose 0.71%. The polysilicon continuous contract fell 0.78%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.06%, rebar rose 0.45%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.24%, and stainless steel rose 2.34%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.45%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.62%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.09%. LME aluminum fell 0.25%, LME lead rose 0.51%, and LME zinc rose 0.25%. LME tin fell 0.31%. LME nickel rose 1.61%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.14%, and COMEX silver rose 0.37%. Domestic precious metals: the SHFE gold continuous contract fell 0.38%, and the SHFE silver continuous contract fell 0.91%. In addition, as of the midday close, the platinum continuous contract fell 1.94%, and the palladium continuous contract fell 1.7%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 4.85%, closing at 2,095 points. As of 11:40 on April 17, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 250 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,040 yuan/mt, down 505 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,455 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front China: [NDRC: This Year Will Focus on Launching a Series of Actions to Expand Effective Investment in Areas Such as "AI+" Infrastructure] The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the morning of April 17 under the series theme of "Getting Off to a Good Start for the 15th Five-Year Plan." Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that this year the focus will be on areas such as "AI+" infrastructure, urban renewal, the national water network, and new-type energy systems, launching a series of actions to expand effective investment and promote the optimization of supply structure and the expansion of market demand. In terms of institutional and mechanism innovation, we will comprehensively carry out "soft construction" work in central government investment projects to promote the formation of long-term mechanisms for project construction, implementation, operation, and maintenance. At the same time, we will leverage the role of the national venture capital guidance fund to guide and drive social capital in supporting technological innovation and the development of emerging industries. Wang Changlin stated that recently, in response to the impact of changes in the international situation on China's oil and gas imports, the government has adopted comprehensive measures to effectively ensure sufficient domestic oil product supply and stable market operations, fully demonstrating the achievements of China's new-type energy system construction. Going forward, efforts will be made to accelerate the high-quality development of non-fossil energy, coordinate centralized and distributed clean energy development, and make every effort to increase the scale of non-fossil energy power production and consumption. Through the above efforts, it is expected that by 2030, the supply scale of non-fossil energy will increase significantly compared to 2025, and by 2035, it will double compared to 2025. [NDRC: Efforts to Expand Effective Domestic Demand, with a Plan to Formulate the 2026–2030 Implementation Plan for the Strategy of Expanding Domestic Demand] The State Council Information Office held a press conference in the series of "Getting Off to a Good Start in the 15th Five-Year Plan," introducing the relevant situation of promoting high-quality economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the NDRC, stated that since the beginning of this year, the economy has shown positive changes, with notable improvements on both the supply and demand sides, better playing the role of a stabilizer for the global economy, and performing better than the expectations of many institutions and experts in and outside China. Going forward, efforts should focus on five key areas of work. [Pan Gongsheng: Implementing a Moderately Accommodative Monetary Policy and Measures to Boost Consumption] Pan Gongsheng stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will adhere to a domestic demand-driven approach, implement policy measures to boost consumption, vigorously develop the service sector, closely integrate investment in physical assets with investment in human capital, promote productivity growth, accelerate green transformation and sustainable development, unswervingly advance high-level opening-up, and drive high-quality development. The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, support Chinese-style modernization with high-quality financial services, and contribute China's strength to global economic growth. (People's Bank of China) [MIIT and Four Other Departments Jointly Issue the Guidelines for Green Design of Industrial Products (2026 Edition)] MIIT and four other departments jointly issued the Guidelines for Green Design of Industrial Products (2026 Edition). The Guidelines adapt to new changes and requirements in the green and low-carbon development landscape in and outside China, build consensus on green design across industries, and specify 11 key directions, namely long-life design, non-toxic design, lightweight design, energy-saving design, water-saving design, material-saving design, noise reduction design, space-saving design, easy-to-recycle-and-regenerate design, reusable design, and zero-carbon design. TheThe Guidelines further closely integrate 11 green design priority areas with practical industry applications, using 15 key industries as typical examples to develop 126 detailed solutions, guiding product R&D personnel in practicing green design concepts and methods. (MIIT WeChat) [PBOC reverse repo operations achieve net withdrawal of 1.5 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 1.5 billion yuan was achieved on the day. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 3.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured this week, a net withdrawal of 500 million yuan was achieved for the week. (Jin10 Data) On the US dollar front: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.04% to 98.24. StoneX analyst Matt Simpson said in a research note that, based on technical analysis, the US dollar index may edge up in the short term. On Thursday, the 200-day simple moving average formed a "mildly bullish" pattern, and the two-day relative strength index was in extremely oversold territory. However, there are multiple resistance levels, including the 200-day exponential moving average at 98.44 that bulls need to test — or a level that bears need to watch for signs of reversal to reopen a broader bearish trend. Data shows the US dollar index is currently holding near the 98.249 level. (Jin10 Data) On the data front, US initial jobless claims fell last week, indicating that labour market conditions remained stable, even as employers remained cautious about hiring new workers as the Middle East conflict cast a shadow over the economy. The latest data showed US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 fell by 11,000 to 207,000, below market expectations of 215,000. Initial jobless claims this year have remained within the range of 201,000 to 230,000. While layoffs remain low, the oil price shock from a potential US-Israeli war against Iran may have hindered hiring. Economists said the labour market was already in a state of stagnation before the war broke out, attributable to the uncertainty brought by Trump's sweeping import tariffs and mass deportations. Economists said the Middle East conflict is just another layer of uncertainty facing enterprises. (Jin10 Data) US Fed Governor Miran said that, given the inflation situation that existed before the Middle East conflict, he may again lower his expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Miran said: "If I were to write my dot on the dot plot now, I would lean toward 3 interest rate cuts, possibly 4. I haven't decided yet."In March, Miran expected four 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, but he noted that the pace of rate cuts could slow down if price trends became "less favorable." According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.4%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 98%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 0.5%. (Jin Shi Data) Data: The eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account and eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance data are to be released today. Also worth watching: 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly is scheduled to deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices on both markets declined, with WTI crude down 1.25% and Brent crude down 1.02%. US President Trump, speaking to the media on the White House South Lawn on the 16th, said the US might hold another round of face-to-face negotiations with Iran this weekend, adding that he would consider heading to Pakistan to sign the deal if a peace agreement were reached between the US and Iran. Trump said he hoped to reach a permanent ceasefire peace agreement before the two-week temporary ceasefire agreement with Iran expires, without having to extend it. (Xinhua News Agency) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 16: Metal market: As of the daytime close, domestic base metals generally rose, with SHFE tin being the only decliner, down 0.07%. SHFE aluminum led the gains with a 2.89% increase, while the rest of the metals gained less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 1.44%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract rose 1.62%. In addition, the lithium carbonate front-month contract rose 4.2%, polysilicon rose 1.08%, silicon metal rose 0.89%, and the Europe containerized freight front-month contract rose 4.75% to close at 2,044.7. Ferrous metals all posted gains to varying degrees except for stainless steel, which fell 0.03%. Iron ore rose 3.1%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar rose over 1%, with hot-rolled coil up 1.22% and rebar up 1.06%. Coking coal and coke side, coking coal rose 2.32% and coke rose 1.94%. Overseas market, as of 15:04, overseas base metals generally rose, with LME tin leading the gains at 1.41%, LME aluminum up 1.31%, and the rest of the metals gaining less than 1%. Precious metals, as of 15:04, COMEX gold rose 0.51% and COMEX silver rose 1.08%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.17% and SHFE silver rose 1.43%. In addition, the platinum front-month contract rose 0.45%, and the palladium front-month contract fell 0.66%. Market data as of 15:04 today Macro Front China: [NBS: Q1 GDP Up 5% YoY! National Economy Off to a Good Start with Accelerating Industrial Production Growth] According to preliminary estimates by the NBS, Q1 GDP reached 33,419.3 billion yuan, up 5.0% YoY in real terms, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points from Q4 last year. By industry, the primary sector's value added was 1,194.1 billion yuan, up 3.8% YoY; the secondary sector's value added was 11,613.5 billion yuan, up 4.9%; and the tertiary sector's value added was 20,611.7 billion yuan, up 5.2%. On a QoQ basis, Q1 GDP grew 1.3%. In Q1, the value added of China's above-scale industrial enterprises rose 6.1% YoY, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points from Q4 last year. By three major categories, the value added of the mining industry rose 6.0% YoY, manufacturing rose 6.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water rose 4.3%. The value added of equipment manufacturing rose 8.9% YoY, and that of high-tech manufacturing rose 12.5%, outpacing the overall above-scale industrial value added by 2.8 and 6.4 percentage points, respectively. By economic type, value added of state-controlled enterprises increased 4.8% YoY; joint-stock enterprises rose 6.6%, foreign-funded enterprises and those with investment from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan rose 3.9%; and private enterprises rose 6.1%. By product, production of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots increased 54.0%, 40.8%, and 33.2% YoY, respectively. In March, value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.7% YoY and 0.28% MoM. In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month; the enterprise production and business activity expectations index was 53.4%. In January–February, industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide recorded total profits of 1,024.6 billion yuan, up 15.2% YoY. [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): China’s Imports and Exports Are Well Positioned to Maintain Solid Growth] Mao Shengyong, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that, based on years of practice, regardless of how the external environment changes, even during the pandemic when the market worried about whether China’s foreign trade could be sustained, China’s imports and exports have remained very strong. This was attributable to enterprises working hard to strengthen their fundamentals, enhance the technological content of products, and improve overall competitiveness. Overall, China’s imports and exports are still well positioned to maintain relatively solid growth. (Wallstreetcn) The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with the operation rate unchanged at 1.40%; 500 million yuan of reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 15:04, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 98.03, marking a nine-session decline. Musalem of the US Fed said on Wednesday that high oil prices could push the underlying inflation rate for the remainder of this year to nearly one percentage point above the US Fed’s 2% target, and the US Fed may need to keep interest rates unchanged. Musalem said, “We are very likely to see some pass-through from oil prices to core inflation.” By the end of this year, the core measure of price increases would be “slightly below 3%, perhaps around 3%,” and there were risks of a further rise. Musalem said the US Fed may keep its policy rate in the current 3.50%–3.75% range “for some time,” while monitoring inflation, employment, and economic data in the coming months, and many of his colleagues shared the same view. The impact of last year’s tariff increases may gradually fade this quarter, and housing price inflation is also easing. As oil prices rise, inflation in a range of services has stayed high; if inflation begins to rise and could boost inflation expectations, he would be open to raising rates. Musalem also stated that the oil market is experiencing "the third negative supply shock in 12 months," which, combined with rising tariff rates and stricter immigration regulations, poses risks to both inflation prospects and the job market, potentially impacting economic growth. He predicted this year's economic growth would slow down but remain between 1.5% and 2%. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April stands at 1.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining unchanged rates is 98.4%. For June, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 0%, with a 98% chance of unchanged rates and a 2% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today, the UK will release February's three-month GDP monthly rate, manufacturing output monthly rate, seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and industrial output monthly rate. The eurozone will announce March's final CPI annual and monthly rates. The US will report initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for April, and March's industrial output monthly rate. Additionally, key events include: US Fed Governor Bowman speaking at the IIF forum; the Fed releasing its Beige Book; Bank of England Governor Bailey discussing global economic imbalances during IMF meetings; China's NBS publishing the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 major cities; a State Council press conference on national economic performance; the ECB releasing March's monetary policy meeting minutes; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivering remarks; US Fed Governor Milan speaking; and the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting. Crude oil side: As of 15:04, oil prices showed mixed performance, with WTI down 0.06% and Brent up 0.2%. Market uncertainty persists over whether US-Iran peace talks will yield an agreement. Last week, US crude exports surged to near-record highs to meet demand from Asian and European buyers seeking alternatives to disrupted Middle Eastern supplies due to the Iran conflict. This brought the US close to becoming a net crude exporter for the first time since WWII. However, analysts and traders noted the US is rapidly approaching its export capacity limit. Government data released Wednesday showed net crude imports (exports minus imports) narrowed to 66,000 barrels per day, the lowest since weekly records began in 2001, while exports rose to 5.2 million barrels per day, a seven-month high. Annual data indicates the US last achieved net exporter status in 1943. Jin10 Data APP) Documents released by the White House show that US President Trump issued multiple oil pipeline permits on Wednesday, including one for a new pipeline aimed at facilitating the transportation of crude oil and petroleum products between the US and Canada. The construction permit has been granted to Bakken Pipeline for pipeline facility construction in Burke County, North Dakota. Additionally, he issued other permits for the maintenance and operation of existing pipelines near border areas in North Dakota and Michigan. (Jin10 Data APP) SMM Daily Review ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Raw material side, lithium carbonate prices held up well this week due to supply disruptions caused by Zimbabwe's latest policy and mine license renewals in Jiangxi. Nickel salt prices fluctuated, while the cobalt salt market was lackluster with prices edging down.