This week, China’s domestic manganese-based battery materials market has shown a differentiated operation trend. The price of battery-grade manganese tetroxide has slightly declined, the price of electrolytic manganese dioxide has slightly increased, and lithium manganate has maintained a weak balance of supply and demand.

This week, China's manganese-based battery materials market showed a differentiated operating trend: battery-grade Mn3O4 prices dropped back slightly, EMD prices edged up slightly, and LMO remained in a weak balance amid the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. Although the three major products showed different trends, all were supported by the cost side. Overall, the market was mainly stable in the short term, with limited room for wild swings, as the industry gradually transitioned from the post-holiday resumption period to a phase of steady operations......

On March 13, the average price of SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate rose slightly.

On the demand side, the EV battery market has seen order contractions compared to earlier expectations, impacted by lackluster new energy vehicle sales both domestically and internationally.

This week, prices for some Grade-B battery cells in the second-life battery market rose. Cost side, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated more sharply this week and showed an overall upward trend, directly pushing up battery cell production costs; nickel sulphate prices edged up, while cobalt sulphate prices remained stable, providing mild support on the cost side and lifting overall cost pressure somewhat. Supply side, the market was clearly boosted by energy storage demand, enterprises showed relatively strong willingness to sell, and circulating supply was steadily released; coupled with rising lithium carbonate prices, enterprises' expectations for higher costs strengthened, and overall pricing sentiment remained firm to slightly stronger. Demand side, demand for second-life Grade-B battery cells recovered significantly, mainly driven by the energy storage market, as downstream energy storage projects commenced and supporting demand continued to be released, noticeably boosting procurement enthusiasm.

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices moved sideways, with the center edging slightly lower. At the start of the week (March 9), prices dropped slightly, then fluctuated upward over the following two days, before turning lower again on Thursday (March 12). The weekly average price center of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate shifted lower WoW. Futures moved wildly, with prices of the most-traded contract posting wide swings between 142,000 yuan/mt and 167,300 yuan/mt. Market transactions were marked by a stalemate of "upstream reluctance to sell, downstream caution." Upstream lithium chemical plants generally showed weak willingness to sell spot orders, with a sentiment of holding back sales and holding prices firm throughout the week, and only a few enterprises made limited shipments when prices surged. Downstream material plants maintained a strategy of buying the dip. When futures prices quickly fell to relatively low levels, purchase willingness among some enterprises increased somewhat; however, after prices rose, they quickly turned cautious again, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, inquiry activity was moderate, but actual transactions were slightly sluggish. Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Upstream lithium chemical plants' reluctance to sell provided some support to prices, but downstream purchase willingness remained weak, lacking sustained demand boost. Against a backdrop of cooling futures market sentiment and declining open interest, prices lacked momentum to rise, while downside was constrained by costs and support from reluctance to sell. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.

In contrast to the typical price declines seen during the traditional spring festival low season from January to February in previous years, China’s domestic manganese sulfate market has recently staged an independent rally of “strong performance amid the off-season”, with prices rising steadily along the way.

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At the start of this week, US nonfarm payrolls for February unexpectedly declined, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts rebounded somewhat, briefly boosting copper prices. Trump then signaled that tensions between the US and Iran might ease, sending oil prices lower and the US dollar weaker, which triggered a phased rebound in copper prices. However, after oil tankers in the Gulf region came under attack and Iran stated that it would continue to close the Strait of Hormuz, tensions in the Middle East escalated again. Rising crude oil prices lifted safe-haven sentiment, and the stronger US dollar index weighed on copper prices. At the same time, US February CPI came in line with expectations, and market bets on interest rate cuts within the year were scaled back markedly, weakening expectations for macro liquidity. In terms of positioning, bulls continued to reduce positions, and capital turned more cautious. Overall, macro uncertainty and repeated shifts in interest rate cut expectations remain intertwined, and copper prices are still likely to fluctuate rangebound in the short term. Fundamentals side, TC in the copper concentrates market was still falling. Recent mine tender prices pointed to a median of -$60/mt. For copper cathode, the inventory buildup showed a turning point, and the import window opened slightly. According to SMM, downstream operating activity was more active than expected, with active pricing below the copper price range of 100,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic is expected to remain unchanged, and geopolitical tensions are still expected to provide strong support to the US dollar, leaving significant short-term resistance for copper prices. However, fundamentals are supporting copper prices, which are expected to remain fluctuating near the range in the short term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $12,800/mt and $13,200/mt, and SHFE copper between 99,000 yuan/mt and 101,000 yuan/mt. In the spot market, as delivery approaches, spot market trading logic will fluctuate with the price spread between futures contracts and funding costs, and is expected to gradually rise next week. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to range from a discount of 180 yuan/mt to a discount of 80 yuan/mt.

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