Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,940/mt and stayed relatively strong during the Asian session, hitting a high of $1,942/mt. Entering the European session, it pulled back to hover near the intraday moving average before sliding to an intraday low of $1,927.5/mt. It edged up slightly before the close and finally settled at $1,931/mt, down $15/mt, or 0.77%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,710 yuan/mt. After rising early to a high of 16,750 yuan/mt, it turned lower and weakened, staying under pressure around 16,700 yuan/mt and moving sideways. It rose slightly late in the session and finally closed at 16,720 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from yesterday, or 0.21%. On the macro front: US President Trump said at a press conference that the US military action against Iran would end “soon,” but “not” within this week. To address market turbulence caused by the military action and to stabilise international oil prices, Trump announced the cancellation of some oil-related sanctions. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In February 2026, the national CPI rose 1.3% YoY. On average in January–February, the national CPI increased 0.8% from the same period a year earlier. The work report of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress in 2026 disclosed this year’s legislative “construction blueprint”. Centered on accelerating the building of a strong financial country, China will formulate the Financial Law and the Financial Stability Law this year, and revise the Law of the People’s Bank of China and the Law on Banking Supervision and Administration, to build the top-level design of financial rule of law. Spot fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of -100~0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. After SHFE lead probed lower and then rebounded, suppliers quoted in line with the market. As delivery approaches, circulating cargoes increased in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai. In addition, cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters were mostly shipped at discounts, while some suppliers showed significant divergence in shipments. Mainstream producing areas offered ex-works quotations at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Circulating cargoes in the secondary lead market were limited, and smelters held prices firm for shipments. Secondary refined lead was quoted ex-works at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, quotations for imported crude lead increased. Downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, with relatively scattered procurement, and spot order market transactions showed no obvious improvement for now. Inventory: As of March 6, LME lead inventory stood at 283,875 mt, down 1,025 mt from the previous day; as of March 9, SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions continued to rise. Lead price forecast for today: After the Chinese New Year holiday factor faded, both supply and demand for lead ingots increased, but even if secondary lead enterprises delayed resuming operations, lead ingot inventories at smelters were still being digested slowly. With delivery of the SHFE lead 2603 contract approaching, and considering that the spread between futures and spot prices has recently stayed above 200 yuan/mt, suppliers in the spot market showed strong willingness to transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouse, gradually moving smelter plant inventories to delivery warehouses. Social inventory of lead ingots is expected to continue rising in the short term, and lead price expectations are expected to remain in the doldrums.

SMM News, March 10: Dealers in Hunan reported that end-use consumption in the e-bike lead-acid battery market was average. After retailers restocked following the holiday, battery sales pulled back somewhat. Current battery inventory is maintained at around half a month, and the wholesale price of the main 48V20Ah model is 400 yuan/set. Manufacturers in Jiangxi reported that demand in the electric lead-acid battery market improved in March. In addition, dealers restocked as usual after the holiday, and finished product orders rebounded significantly compared with February. At present, the operating rate of factory production lines is around 80, with raw material lead mainly procured through long-term contracts. Manufacturers in Zhejiang reported that replacement demand in the electric lead-acid battery market improved relatively, with dealers making purchases based on demand. The current factory operating rate has recovered to above 80. In addition, lead prices lacked upward momentum, and spot supply in circulation was ample, so recent procurement has basically been on a buy-as-needed basis.

SMM News on March 10: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,710 yuan/mt. In early trading, the price edged down slightly before fluctuating higher and then pulling back again. During the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuate rangebound within 16,670-16,690 yuan/mt. Affected by weak downstream consumption recovery and persistently sluggish spot transactions at smelters, lead prices rebounded slightly in the afternoon before coming under pressure. Near the close, SHFE lead prices settled at the day’s low of 16,650 yuan/mt. A bearish candlestick without a lower shadow was recorded, down 90 yuan/mt, or 0.54%. After the Lantern Festival, domestic smelters accelerated the pace of resuming operations, but downstream consumption sentiment remained weak. Spot shipments stayed at low levels, and inventories at some enterprises remained persistently high. SMM expects that lead prices will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information and market communication, and generated relying on SMM’s internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM March 10: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2603 moved lower, with the price center dropping sharply from the previous trading day. Today, purchasing sentiment was not significantly driven by aluminum prices; buying strength remained weak, and buying interest was low. Today, mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at discounts of 10 yuan/mt to premiums of 20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.19, down 0.03 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.53, up 0.04 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum fell sharply in early trading, and purchasing sentiment was not significantly driven by aluminum prices; buying strength remained weak, and buying interest was low. Today, mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at discounts of 130 yuan/mt to discounts of 120 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 03 contract. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.58, down 0.12 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 MoM. Inventory side, today aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased 13,000 mt MoM, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Gongyi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingots continued seasonal inventory buildup; affected by bullish sentiment, premiums were expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

SMM News, March 10: Replacement demand in the automotive battery market was moderate. After the holiday, dealers restocked based on demand. The operating rate of production lines at some medium and large enterprises had recovered to 70-90%, with a few even approaching full capacity. However, export-oriented enterprises among them had weak orders, and production was basically based on sales, while procurement of raw material lead was also relatively cautious.

Southern Nonferrous Metals Successfully Concludes Large-Scale Metal Tenders Amid Strong Market Demand

Futures: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,945/mt and fluctuated upward during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it continued to rise and touched a high of $1,955/mt before weakening and dipping to $1,937/mt. Before the close, it recovered part of the losses and finally closed at $1,946/mt, up $2.5/mt, a gain of 0.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,780 yuan/mt. It rose early to a high of 16,815 yuan/mt, then moved lower and weakened. After touching 16,730 yuan/mt at the low, it rebounded to hover and consolidate near the intraday moving average, and finally closed at 16,765 yuan/mt, up 0 yuan/mt from the previous day’s settlement price, with a % change of 0%. On the macro front: US nonfarm payrolls in February unexpectedly fell by 92,000, marking the first single-month negative growth since 2020. After the data release, traders increased their bets on US Fed interest rate cuts in 2026. Analysts believed that a weakening labour market, coupled with escalating tensions in the Middle East pushing up oil prices, intensified market concerns over stagflation risks. Zheng Shanjie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at an economy-themed press conference that this year’s GDP increment was expected to exceed 6 trillion yuan, equivalent to the annual total of a developed economy, which would provide strong support for stabilising employment, improving people’s livelihoods, and preventing risks. On investment, 109 major projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan will be advanced this year, focusing on building the “six networks” such as water networks, power grids, and computing power networks, as well as facilities for the low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence. The related investment scale this year was expected to exceed 7 trillion yuan. Spot fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, and suppliers mostly made shipments at discounts, especially for cargoes self-picked up from production site from primary lead smelters, which were quoted at relatively larger discounts. Mainstream producing areas were quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Secondary lead smelters held prices firm for shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works, leaving no price spread versus primary lead. In addition, with some imported lead entering the domestic market, downstream enterprises had more procurement options, and transactions in the spot order market remained sluggish. Inventory: As of March 6, LME lead inventory stood at 285,900 mt, unchanged from the previous day; last Thursday, SMM five-region social inventory of lead ingots edged up again and remained at a five-month high. Lead price forecast for today: In March, both supply and demand for domestic lead ingots increased. With imported lead supplementing supply and downstream pre-holiday inventories being digested slowly, lead prices lacked upward momentum. The secondary lead segment was currently in a loss-making state, reducing smelters’ willingness to resume production. Some enterprises delayed their production resumptions to mid-to-late March, briefly providing supportive conditions for lead price performance. This week was also the week before delivery for the SHFE lead 2603 contract. In the spot market in Henan and Hunan, deals for premiums over the SMM #1 lead average price were slightly difficult to conclude. Suppliers and smelters were expected to continue transferring inventory and shipping to delivery warehouses, and expectations of a continued build in visible inventory were still set to keep lead prices under pressure.

SMM News on March 9: Dealers in Zhejiang reported a relative improvement in end-use consumption in the automotive lead-acid battery market, mainly due to post-holiday restocking by retailers. Battery inventory declined accordingly, while lead prices struggled to rise, and wholesale prices in the battery market have not seen significant changes for the time being; for example, the mainstream model 6-QW-45Ah was at 200-220 yuan/unit. Manufacturers in Hebei reported that after the holiday, dealers restocked as needed, and automotive lead-acid battery orders improved in March. In addition, factory staff have basically returned to work, and the current operating rate has exceeded 90%. Raw material lead is mainly procured under long-term contract. Manufacturers in Jiangxi reported that domestic demand in the automotive lead-acid battery market improved, while on the export side, affected by the SHFE/LME price ratio for lead, tariffs, and Middle East ocean shipping, export orders remained sluggish, and the current operating rate is maintained at 70-80%.

SMM News on March 6: The most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,780 yuan/mt during the session. Prices quickly dipped in early trading, once touching an intraday low of 16,655 yuan/mt. As bears took profits and closed positions, lead prices rebounded. SHFE lead prices fluctuated upward intraday, repeatedly moving within the 16,765–16,805 yuan/mt range and once nearing an intraday high of 16,815 yuan/mt. Subsequently, lead prices fluctuated downward, and in late trading fluctuated rangebound around 16,730–16,755 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 16,740 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 0.21%. As downstream consumption recovery remained weak, spot transactions at smelters stayed sluggish, and the elevated inventory situation saw no significant relief. Lead prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term. Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.

SMM, March 9: According to multiple sources from the market, South China Nonferrous recently conducted large-scale tenders for several of its metal products, including substantial volumes of bismuth ingots, cadmium ingots, and indium ingots. The information indicated that the final results were all successfully concluded. At present, according to official information, these metal tenders have indeed smoothly entered the delivery stage, but the authorities are currently unwilling to disclose the specific transaction prices. However, many market participants said that the transaction prices of these metals were close to the market spot prices. Considering such large volumes, this outcome indeed indicates robust trading interest in these metal markets. After the Chinese New Year, end-use demand has also begun to enter an active stockpiling phase. In addition to end-users, market forces including trade and speculation have also been actively taking action; therefore, the market’s recent price trend has been relatively firm.