[Strait Blockade Remains in Stalemate, LME Outperforms SHFE for Aluminum] Overall, the strait blockade continued. The supply gap outside China and the ongoing drawdown of LME inventory supported LME prices to hold up well, while China's aluminum ingot inventory remained at elevated levels. Attention should be paid to whether a turning point in domestic inventory can materialize smoothly.

[Geopolitical Negotiations Remain Unresolved; Aluminum Prices Continue LME Outperforms SHFE Pattern] Overall, the Middle East negotiation process continued to face setbacks. However, the supply gap outside China and the continued drawdown of LME inventory supported LME prices to hold up well. Meanwhile, China's aluminum ingot inventory remained at elevated levels, and attention should be paid to whether the inflection point of domestic inventory can materialize smoothly.

[Zinc Ingot Imports Surged Beyond Expectations in March — How Will April Trade Flows Unfold?] According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in March 2026 totaled 14,400 mt, up 9,900 mt or 220.14% MoM and down 47.53% YoY. Cumulative refined zinc imports from January to March reached 43,000 mt, down 57.32% YoY. Refined zinc exports in March were 4,700 mt, resulting in net exports of 32,500 mt of refined zinc from January to March.

[Short-Term Supply-Demand Resonance, Bullish Trend in Aluminum Prices Continues] Overall, the Middle East negotiation process experienced repeated setbacks, but the supply gap outside China and continued LME inventory drawdown supported LME prices to hold up well. China's aluminum ingot inventory remained at elevated levels, and attention should be paid to whether a turning point in domestic inventory can materialize smoothly.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Supply Shortages Outside China Supported Prices to Hold Up Well, China Focused on the Turning Point of Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory]

[SHFE and LME Aluminum Indicators Strengthen Across the Board, Geopolitical Risks Dominate Short-Term Market] Overall, from a macro perspective, risks of strait transit restrictions and conflict escalation resonated with fundamental supply-side hard damage and low global inventory, jointly providing strong bottom support for aluminum prices. However, weak interest rate cut expectations, China's aluminum ingot inventory buildup exceeding expectations, and adverse expectations on consumption and inflation from recent high fluctuations in oil prices all notably dragged on the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices fluctuated at highs.

According to the latest LME data, the share of Russian aluminum in LME inventory rose from 60% in February to 92% in March.

SMM Nickel News, April 13: Macro and market news: (1) Trump: A blockade will be imposed on all ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, ships paying transit fees to Iran in international waters will be intercepted, and Iranian mines laid in the strait will be cleared. Apart from the nuclear issue, the US and Iran have "reached agreement on most issues." (2) According to US officials and informed sources, President Trump and his advisors are considering resuming limited military strikes against Iran while imposing a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to break the deadlock in peace negotiations. Spot market: On April 13, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,350 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract moved sideways in the morning session, closing at 134,000 yuan/mt, up 0.43%. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to continue fluctuating within the 130,000-138,000 yuan/mt range, supported below by cost underpinning from rising ore and sulfur prices, and capped above by high global inventory (LME inventory above 280,000 mt, continued social inventory buildup in China) and sluggish downstream demand recovery.

[Solid Geopolitical Support, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate at Highs] Overall, from a macro perspective, restricted strait transit and risks of conflict escalation resonated with fundamental supply-side hard damage and low global inventory, jointly providing strong bottom support for aluminum prices. However, weak interest rate cut expectations, above-expectation aluminum ingot inventory buildup in China, and adverse expectations on consumption and inflation driven by recent high fluctuations in oil prices all notably weighed on the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at highs.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,690 yuan/mt, briefly rising to a high of 23,725 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session. Bears then increased their open interest, and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward throughout the session, hitting a low of 23,570 yuan/mt near the close, ultimately settling down at 23,585 yuan/mt, a decline of 30 yuan/mt or 0.35%. Trading volume fell to 29,862 lots, while open interest increased by 951 lots to 77,560 lots.