Raw material side, this week lithium carbonate and nickel sulphate prices fluctuated, while cobalt sulphate prices began to drop slightly after remaining stable for an extended period.

[French Lithium Company Launches Geothermal Well Testing at the Schwabwiller Site in Alsace] The first geothermal exploration well drilled by the French lithium company at the Schwabwiller site in the Grand Ried department of Alsace, France, has begun well testing. This phase will last 3–5 weeks and is intended to verify the resource’s potential for geothermal heating and lithium production. Drilling at the Schwabwiller site began in November 2025, with a target depth of approximately 2,400 meters. The project is expected to drill a pair of wells, with a bottom-hole spacing of about 1,000 meters. The drilling campaign is expected to take a total of seven months. If results are positive, the French lithium company’s project is expected to provide geothermal heating for enterprises, farms, and local communities in northern Alsace. In addition, extracting lithium from geothermal brine will produce lithium with a lower environmental footprint, with carbon dioxide emissions reduced by about 70% compared with lithium currently on the market. Source: https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/ [Li-FT Power Strategic Assessment of the Yellowknife Lithium Carbonate Conversion Plant Project] The global lithium chemicals supply chain is at a crossroads, with traditional production models facing unprecedented pressure from accelerating electrification demand. The market landscape is increasingly tilting toward integrated producers, which can capture value across the full chain—from raw ore mining to refining and producing battery-grade lithium chemicals. This shift reflects a broader strategic realignment across the industry: enterprises are enhancing operational resilience through vertical integration rather than relying on fragmented commodity supply chains. Li-FT Power’s recently announced Yellowknife lithium carbonate conversion plant project is a representative case of this strategic evolution. The proposed facility targets annual production of 30,000 mt LCE, positioning the company within North America’s emerging battery materials ecosystem. This capacity scale reflects an intentional mid-end positioning, balancing capital efficiency with meaningful market participation. Source: https://discoveryalert.com.au/ [Zimbabwe Clarifies Why It Hastily Banned Exports of Some of Its Most Critical Minerals] Recently, Zimbabwe’s Minister of Mines, Polit Kambamura, reiterated this rationale, stating that miners’ under-reporting of declared volumes constitutes a serious problem that cannot be ignored. He noted that the issue has become so widespread that the government was forced to bring forward the disciplinary timetable by one year. The government had originally planned to begin imposing an export ban on lithium concentrates next year, but due to rising production and newly issued export permits, it moved to launch the ban as quickly as possible. At a press conference after a Cabinet meeting in the country’s capital, Harare, Kambamura told reporters: “The ban will remain in effect until the conditions proposed by the government or new expectations are met.” Source: https://africa.businessinsider.com/ [Rock Tech and Siemens Plan to Build a Lithium Converter in Canada] The lithium converter that Rock Tech Lithium is developing in Guben, eastern Germany, is intended to serve as a blueprint for building a similar facility in Canada in cooperation with Siemens. The project will use Siemens’ digital twin technology to digitally replicate, optimize, and scale up the plant’s design and operating processes. The lithium converter that Rock Tech is currently building in Guben, Germany, is designed for an annual output of 24,000 mt of battery-grade lithium hydroxide. The company said this will become the largest facility of its kind in Europe. It is expected to start operations in 2027. The target capacity is equivalent to about 30 Gwh of battery capacity, sufficient to meet demand for about 500,000 EV units per year. Rock Tech also plans to build a similar facility in Red Rock, Ontario, Canada. Siemens AG’s technology will be deployed for the plant’s construction and operations. The two companies have signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding to establish a long-term, multi-phase strategic partnership focused on developing modern lithium converter capacity. Source: https://www.electrive.com/

The LCO market started the week with stable operation, with prices mainly fluctuating slightly in line with upstream lithium carbonate, but overall fluctuations were limited. Currently, cathode producers' quotations for conventional models remain above 400,000 yuan per mt, while high-voltage product quotations hold firm around 420,000 yuan. As the post-holiday period falls within the traditional off-season for consumer electronics, downstream battery cell manufacturers currently exhibit low purchase willingness, mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that after the new stockpiling cycle begins in early March, LCO prices are likely to continue rising. Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lü Yanlin 021-20707875 Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711 Zhang Haohan 021-51666752 Wang Zihan 021-51666914 Wang Jie 021-51595902 Xu Yang 021-51666760 Yang Lianting 021-51595835 Wang Zhaoyu 021-51666827

SMM Feburary 16 News: Raw material side, this week lithium carbonate prices began to rise continuously, while cobalt sulphate and nickel sulphate prices remained stable.

SMM Feburary 26 News: This week, nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices were basically flat, while lithium carbonate prices fell before rising again.

This month, Rio Tinto stated during its earnings conference call that with all its owned projects progressing as planned, the company's lithium production capacity is expected to reach 200,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually by 2028. The increase will primarily stem from the Fenix project, the expansion of Sal de Vida, and the commissioning of the Rincon and Nemaska projects. By that time, total output will exceed three times the 57,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate production achieved in 2025. Rio Tinto previously announced its entry into the ranks of major lithium producers upon acquiring Arcadium, with plans to increase capacity to over 200,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually by 2028. The company has now confirmed its focus on achieving this target, positioning lithium as a “significant” component within its business structure. Expansion Projects: The mechanical portion of the 10,000-ton-per-year expansion at Fenix, one of the Argentine salt lake projects, has been completed, with commissioning progress reaching 60%. The mechanical vapor recompression unit has been put into operation to support the planned first production run. The first production from the expanded capacity remains on track to commence in the second half of 2026. At the new Sal de Vida project in Argentina, with an annual capacity of 15,000 metric tons, the mechanical works have been completed and commissioning is 40% complete. Production is expected to commence in the second half of 2026, projected to increase Rio Tinto's lithium output to 61,000–64,000 metric tons LCE in 2026. Regarding future projects: The Rincon project in Argentina, with an annual capacity of 60,000 metric tons, is progressing smoothly with its initial 3,000-metric-ton-per-year plant. It is expected to reach full capacity by year-end. The 57,000-metric-ton expansion plant has completed commissioning and is currently being started up, with first production planned for 2028. It will reach full production after a three-year ramp-up period. The mine has an estimated 40-year lifespan, with operating costs positioned in the top quartile of the industry cost curve. The Nemaska project in Canada features an integrated lithium hydroxide production line with a designed capacity of 28,000 metric tons per year. The mine's engineering design is complete, with construction progress at 60%. The lithium hydroxide refinery is scheduled to commence commissioning in 2026 and achieve first production in 2028. For the Whabouchi and Galaxy mines, strategic business and capital discipline reviews are underway with Canadian partners to determine the development of one of these mines. A decision is expected in the first half of 2026 to secure an integrated spodumene supply solution for the lithium hydroxide plant by 2028. In Chile, Rio Tinto anticipates closing agreements signed with state-owned mining companies Codelco and Enami in the first half of 2026. Rio Tinto has been selected as the private partner to develop Chile's two largest undeveloped lithium resources, with projects advancing upon agreement completion.

Under a no-policy-impact scenario, SMM estimates Zimbabwe's total lithium production to reach 200,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, accounting for 9% of global primary lithium supply. Following the export ban, as official implementing rules have not yet been released by the authorities, SMM has developed three scenarios to assess the impact on global lithium supply: 1. If only lithium sulfate can be exported: Zimbabwe could supply 17,000–35,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, representing 8%–16% of the country's original supply capacity, a reduction of 170,000–190,000 tonnes LCE. 2. If companies with processing capacity can export both lithium concentrate and lithium sulfate: Zimbabwe could supply 90,000–140,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, representing 45%–70% of the country's original supply capacity, a reduction of 60,000–110,000 tonnes LCE. 3 . With beneficiation capacity, enterprises can export spodumene concentrate + lithium sulfate. In 2026, Zimbabwe's lithium resource supply is expected to reach nearly 150,000-170,000 tons, accounting for 75%-85% of the previously projected supply, representing a decrease of 30,000-50,000 tons compared to the earlier forecast. Assuming the ban on raw ore and lithium concentrate exports remains in effect throughout 2026, while lithium sulfate exports are permitted, SMM's assessment of the impact magnitude is as follows: 1 . Timeline of Public Information on Zimbabwe's Lithium Export Restrictions Source: SMM compilation based on public information 2. 2026 No-Policy-Impact Scenario SMM estimates Zimbabwe's lithium supply would reach 200,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, representing: Over 15% year-on-year growth from 2025 10% of global primary lithium supply in 2026 17% of global spodumene supply in 2026 3. Major Operating Mines in Zimbabwe Major Lithium Mining Projects in Zimbabwe Source: SMM compilation based on public information Notes : Based on public information: Zimbabwe's average spodumene grade ranges from 1.06–1.98%, with concentrate grades of 4.0–5.5%. Conversion ratio: 9.5:1 (concentrate to LCE) Petalite grades range from 0.8–1.8%, with concentrate grades of 3.0–4.2%. Conversion ratio: 16:1 (concentrate to LCE) References also made to individual companies' public disclosures Project Updates: Arcadia and Bikita submitted beneficiation plans to Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines in 2024 Arcadia: Lithium sulfate project construction began in January 2025, with initial design capacity of 50,000 tonnes. Commissioning began in October 2025, currently in ramp-up stage. Lithium sulfate exports experienced some delays in mid-to-late February 2025 Bikita: Announced in its May 2025 investor relations presentation that it plans to complete 10,000 tonnes lithium sulfate construction by end-2025, and commence 20,000 tonnes construction in 2026 Kamativi: Announced on February 26, 2026, that its Zimbabwe lithium sulfate project has commenced construction 4. China's Lithium Spodumene Imports (2025) Zimbabwe supplied over 1.2 million tonnes of spodumene to China in 2025, accounting for approximately 15% of China's total imports. Lithium Spodumene Imports by Source Country (2025) Source: China Customs, SMM compilation 5. Project Comparison: Arcadia Lithium Sulfate Plant Construction and Ramp-Up Timeline Construction to commissioning takes approximately one year. If the export ban remains in effect throughout 2026: Arcadia and Bikita are confirmed to be able to export lithium sulfate Based on Kamativi's February 26, 2026 public announcement, it may also be able to export lithium sulfate. As Kamativi's capacity plans have not yet been disclosed, certain assumptions have been made regarding its output. No-Policy-Impact Baseline: Zimbabwe's Expected Total Output Approaching 200,000 Tonnes LCE in 2026. Scenario Analysis: Impact of Export Ban on Supply (1) Only lithium sulfate can be exported: a. No export procedure required (Arcadia + Bikita + Kamativi): Zimbabwe will have an exportable lithium resource volume of 30,000–35,000 tons LCE in 2026, accounting for 16% of the country's total annual lithium supply, with an affected volume of nearly 170,000 tons LCE; b. Export permit application process required for lithium sulfate (policy pending clarification, assuming a two-month processing period) (Arcadia + Bikita + Kamativi): Zimbabwe will have an exportable lithium resource volume of 17,000 tons LCE in 2026, accounting for 8% of the country's total annual lithium supply, with an affected volume of nearly 190,000 tons LCE. (2) Companies with smelting capacity can export both lithium concentrate and lithium sulfate: a. No export procedure required (Arcadia + Bikita + Kamativi): Zimbabwe will have an exportable lithium resource volume of 140,000 tons LCE in 2026, accounting for 70% of the country's total annual lithium supply, with an affected volume of nearly 60,000 tons LCE; b. Export permit application process required for lithium concentrate+ lithium sulfate (policy pending clarification, assuming a two-month processing period) (Arcadia + Bikita + Kamativi): Zimbabwe will have an exportable lithium resource volume of nearly 90,000 tons LCE in 2026, accounting for 45% of the country's total annual lithium supply, with an affected volume of nearly 110,000 tons LCE. (3) Enterprises with beneficiation capacity may apply to export spodumene concentrate + lithium sulfate: a. If the export procedure takes one month to complete (policy not yet clarified; this is an estimate only): Zimbabwe is expected to be able to export approximately 170,000 tons LCE of lithium resources in 2026, accounting for 85% of the country's originally projected annual supply, with a reduction of nearly 30,000 tons LCE. b. If the export procedure takes two months to complete (policy not yet clarified; this is an estimate only): Zimbabwe is expected to be able to export approximately 150,000 tons LCE of lithium resources in 2026, accounting for 75% of the country's originally projected annual supply, with a reduction of nearly 50,000 tons LCE.

Raw material side, lithium carbonate and nickel sulphate prices continued to rise this week, while cobalt sulphate prices remained stable.

Price side, the average price of LCO (4.4V) in November was 140,500 yuan/mt, down 3.4% MoM and 37% YoY.

LCO prices experienced minor fluctuations, primarily driven by changes in upstream lithium carbonate prices. Currently, cathode producers have generally raised their quotations for standard-grade products to above 400,000 yuan per mt, with high-voltage LCO reaching up to 420,000 yuan per mt. On the demand side, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, enterprises have widely reduced their subsequent production schedules. LCO prices are expected to remain stable in February, with little likelihood of wild swings. Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lu Yanlin 021-20707875 Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711 Zhang Haohan 021-51666752 Wang Zihan 021-51666914 Wang Jie 021-51595902 Xu Yang 021-51666760 Yang Lianting 021-51595835 Wang Zhaoyu 021-51666827