A blocked Strait of Hormuz would upend global methanol supplies, hammer conventional methanol markets, and elevate green methanol’s strategic value, pushing China to diversify imports and boost green methanol for supply security.

In January 2026, the European Union and India reached a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the elimination of steel tariffs of up to 22% becoming a major market focus. However, clearing the policy fog of "bilateral exemptions" and analyzing actual export and carbon emission data reveals that the steel industry faces a highly asymmetric trade reshaping. This seemingly fair reduction is actually Europe trading a "capped" ticket for India's "uncapped" massive incremental market.

[Frequent Supply Disruptions; Imported TCs Continued to Decline]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly TC for SMM Zn50 domestic remained flat at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index fell by $8.37/dmt MoM to $15.38/dmt...

Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include China’s February CPI y/y, the US February non-seasonally adjusted CPI y/y, the US January core PCE price index y/y, and the preliminary US March one-year inflation expectations; meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, with unchanged impacts on maritime shipping and energy supply, while a surge in oil prices has hit interest rate cut expectations, and US Treasury traders have increasingly expected that the US Fed will not cut interest rates this year. In addition, on March 6, SHFE officially announced the passage of the revision plan for lead futures contracts, with secondary lead substitutes at a discount of 150 yuan/mt to deliverable-grade material. LME lead, overseas geopolitical issues have mixed bullish and bearish impacts on the lead market: on the one hand, hindered transportation and rising energy prices such as natural gas have pushed up smelting cost, and lead-acid battery exports have also been constrained by transportation restrictions; on the other hand, there is the impact of damage to the economic environment. In addition, overseas lead inventory has remained elevated after surging by more than 50,000 mt during the Chinese New Year period, leaving lead prices under pressure. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,930-1,990/mt next week. SHFE lead, in March, both domestic lead ingot supply and demand increased, and with imported lead supplementing supply, the destocking speed of lead ingots has been slow, leaving insufficient momentum for lead prices to rise. The secondary lead segment is currently in a loss-making state, and some smelters have slowed the pace of resuming production, providing support for lead prices. In addition, next week is the week before delivery for the SHFE lead 2603 contract, and suppliers will transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouse; expectations of a cumulative increase in visible inventory may weigh on lead prices. Overall, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,600-17,000 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,500-16,700 yuan/mt. Demand side, the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises rose, and their lead ingot purchases will rise accordingly, with more expectations of purchasing as needed. Supply side, primary lead smelters’ production was steady to slightly higher, and market circulating supply was ample; however, considering the factor of shipping to delivery warehouse, this may ease suppliers’ pressure to make shipments, keeping spot discounts stable, while secondary refined lead smelters have resumed work at a slightly slower pace and, amid losses, secondary refined lead smelters will hold prices firm in shipments, with limited widening of discounts.

LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - Gold's appeal as it draws support from the widening conflict in the Middle East is expected to ​remain intact even if some investors have favoured the dollar as their preferred safe haven, traders and analysts said.

[SHFE/LME Price Ratio Rebounded and Hovered Around 7.4]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio rebounded and fluctuated around just below 7.4, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Overseas, continued destocking supported the upward shift in the center of LME zinc; subsequently, as geopolitical developments fueled inflation concerns, a stronger US dollar pressured the base metals sector, and LME zinc retreated after rapid rise, with its center moving lower.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, spot discounts for Shanghai spot copper are expected to continue a steady recovery. From the market structure perspective, the price spread between futures contracts for the next-month C contract remained around 300 yuan/mt, prompting suppliers to hold prices firm and withhold sales. Meanwhile, the downward shift in the center of copper prices effectively stimulated downstream purchase willingness, driving a notable rise in spot premiums. Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargo continued to arrive, and with social inventory at elevated levels, overall circulating supply in the market remained ample. Under the combined effects of suppliers holding prices firm and downstream buying the dip, the momentum for the recovery in spot discounts is expected to continue.

[SMM Chromium Daily Review: Quotes Continued to Rise, Strong Willingness to Hold Prices Firm] News on March 5, 2026: Today, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia rose by 50 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day...

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro Sentiment-Driven, LME Zinc Center Shifts Lower] Overnight, LME zinc posted a large bearish candlestick, with the upper Bollinger Bands midline forming resistance and the lower 60-day moving average providing support. The Middle East conflict escalated, the US dollar strengthened, oil prices hit a new high since July of the year before last, inflation expectations rose, and the US Fed......

SMM reported on March 5 that this week, total inventory across the two major stainless steel markets of Wuxi and Foshan showed a slight upward trend, rising from 1.0161 million mt on February 26, 2026 to 1.0164 million mt on March 5, 2026, up 0.3% WoW. This week, stainless steel social inventory increased slightly, remaining at a high level above 1 million mt. The market had entered the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April.” Although downstream end-users had gradually resumed work and production, the pace of actual demand release was slow, and the strength of the recovery still needed to be verified. SS futures lacked momentum for further upside and fluctuated within the week, making it difficult for spot prices to improve. Wait-and-see sentiment strengthened, and overall confidence pulled back compared with the previous period. Supply side, stainless steel mills’ expected planned production for March had increased significantly, and supply pressure was gradually emerging. Although supply and demand had yet to achieve a good match and the effectiveness of social inventory drawdown remained uncertain, stainless steel currently had strong cost support. Nickel ore-related news continued to ferment and provided a floor, while steel mills were proactive in maintaining prices and boosting shipments, fully aligning with procurement demand after downstream resumption of work, effectively curbing further inventory buildup. Overall, this week’s inventory trend was mainly driven by factors including a slower-than-expected downstream recovery, increased supply expectations, a pullback in market confidence, and steel mills’ active shipments. Although there was still a short-term risk of inventory buildup, supported by strong cost-side support and steel mills’ proactive adjustments, stainless steel social inventory was expected to remain broadly stable. Whether inventories can be effectively drawn down going forward will still hinge on the actual pace of downstream demand recovery.