[SMM Aluminum Alloy Flash News] Futures: the aluminum alloy 2604 contract surged to 24,285 yuan/mt in early trading today, then quickly pulled back, with the intraday low falling to 23,915 yuan/mt, and fluctuated at lows in consolidation in the afternoon. Spot market: quotes in the secondary aluminum alloy ADC12 market continued to rise today, with gains mainly concentrated in the 100–200 yuan/mt range. Driven by rising costs and bullish sentiment, secondary aluminum alloy enterprises generally maintained a willingness to lift prices, but market transactions showed slight divergence. Facing rapid price fluctuations, downstream enterprises became noticeably more cautious in their procurement strategies, mostly relying on just-in-time procurement and showing low willingness to build inventor

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,937.5/mt. During the Asian session, it moved sideways around the intraday moving average. After entering the European session, it rose to a high of $1,945.5/mt, then fluctuated rangebound at high levels before pulling back to a low of $1,932/mt. Before the close, it edged up slightly to recover part of the losses, and finally closed at $1,935.5/mt, down $3/mt, or 0.15%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,605 yuan/mt. After dipping to 16,550 yuan/mt in early trading, it rebounded and consolidated near the intraday moving average, finally closing at 16,595 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous day, or 0.21%. On the macro front: The fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in Beijing. The meeting voted to adopt the resolution on the government work report and reviewed and approved the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, charting the course for economic and social development over the next five years. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that although the February nonfarm payrolls report released last week came in weaker than expected, the mild pullback in initial jobless claims indicated that the scale of corporate layoffs remained limited, with employers still more inclined to retain workers. This eased market concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labour market. After the data release, major US stock indexes maintained their declines, while energy stocks were among the few sectors that rose due to a sharp increase in oil prices. Spot Fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. The center of SHFE lead moved further lower, and suppliers shipped in line with market conditions. In addition, with delivery approaching, some suppliers became less willing to sell, and quotations appeared somewhat firmer, with significantly fewer transactions at large discounts. Among them, ex-factory quotations in major primary lead producing areas were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, circulation of spot cargo in the secondary lead market was limited, and secondary refined lead was quoted ex-factory around parity against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased under long-term contracts, with limited spot order replenishment, while some purchased as needed. Trading in the spot market was subdued on both sides. Inventory: As of March 12, LME lead inventory fell by 375 mt to 284,500 mt; as of March 12, SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions continued its accumulation trend. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Approaching the weekend, operating rates at primary lead smelters in Hunan gradually resumed, though they had not yet returned to full production, and primary lead quotations in Hunan and Guangdong remained relatively firm. As the delivery date of the SHFE lead 2603 contract approached, suppliers were shifting inventory to delivery warehouses one after another, and social inventory of lead ingots continued to become more visible. With more imported lead arriving at ports and China refined lead supply gradually recovering, spot cargo in the spot market was relatively ample. Downstream enterprises had more procurement options, actively negotiated prices, and bought the dip. In the short term, the accumulation trend in social inventory of lead ingots is expected to be difficult to reverse, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: The SHFE/LME Price Ratio Continued to Weaken, and Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from overseas prices, and the backwardation structure was expected to persist in the short term. China was in a phase of high inventory + weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum was clearly weaker than that outside China. Amid diverging domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio was expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices were expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Affected by Macro Disturbances, LME Zinc Maintained Wide Swings] LME zinc opened at $3,316/mt. In early trading, LME zinc fluctuated upward and touched a high of $3,331.50/mt, after which prices fell rapidly. It then rose and recovered the losses, but during European trading hours, as bears reduced open interest, LME zinc quickly dipped to $3,284/mt. In the night session, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, LME zinc gradually recouped the losses and returned to fluctuate above the average price line, finally closing down at $3,314.50/mt, down $1/mt, or 0.03%. Trading volume decreased to 82,887 lots, and open interest increased by 527 lots to 217,000 lots.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,360 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc briefly touched a high of 24,390 yuan/mt, then quickly fell to a low of 24,205 yuan/mt. Thereafter, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, SHFE zinc fluctuated rangebound and finally closed down at 24,240 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt, or 0.25%. Trading volume decreased to 35,766 lots, while open interest increased by 1,359 lots to 74,085 lots.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Alloy Prices Continued to Hover at Highs, While Market Demand Was Significantly Suppressed] This week, secondary aluminum alloy prices continued to rise, but the pace of demand follow-up was relatively slow. In the short term, raw material costs remained at high levels, providing strong support for ADC12 prices; however, if prices continue to rise, the suppressive effect of high prices on demand will become increasingly evident. Meanwhile, as operating rates gradually recover, there are also expectations of a mild increase on the supply side. ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term. Going forward, it is recommended to focus on the pace of downstream order release, the pressure on the market from the supply recovery process, and the impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,044/mt. It touched a high of $13,063.5/mt in early trading, then the center moved lower to a low of $12,929/mt, and finally closed at $12,948.5/mt, down 0.77%. Trading volume came in at 17,000 lots, down 235 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 304,000 lots, up 279 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting an increase in bears' positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,240 yuan/mt. It touched a high of 101,240 yuan/mt at the open, then the center moved lower to a low of 100,560 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,860 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. Trading volume came in at 26,000 lots, down 62,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 189,000 lots, down 3,320 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting a reduction in bulls' positions overall.

SMM, March 13: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,937.5/mt. During the Asian session, it moved sideways around the intraday moving average. After entering the European session, it rose to a high of $1,945.5/mt, then fluctuated rangebound at high levels before pulling back to a low of $1,932/mt. Before the close, it edged up slightly to recoup part of the losses, and finally closed at $1,935.5/mt, down $3/mt, or 0.15%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,605 yuan/mt. After dipping to a low of 16,550 yuan/mt in early trading, it rebounded and fluctuated around the intraday moving average, eventually closing at 16,595 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous day, or 0.21%.

[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Opened Sharply Lower in the Night Session and Remained Rangebound at Low Levels, While Trading in the Spot Market Was Relatively Mediocre]

On March 5, the People’s Government of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region officially issued the “Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,” clearly listing hydrogen energy storage, rare earth new materials, and green hydrogen-ammonia-methanol as strategic priorities, accelerating the development of the entire industry chain for green hydrogen, and building a nationally important high ground for the energy storage industry, thereby charting a clear path for energy transition and industrial upgrading. I. Hydrogen Energy Storage: Building the Entire Industry Chain and Sprinting Toward an Energy Storage Scale of 60 million kW The Outline proposed to expand and strengthen the hydrogen energy storage industry , with the core goals and measures as follows: Full-chain deployment of green hydrogen : Accelerate the development of the entire industry chain for green hydrogen—“ production, storage, transportation, and use ”—and build green hydrogen, green ammonia, and green methanol industry clusters; advance cross-provincial and cross-regional long-distance hydrogen-ammonia-methanol pipeline projects, and moderately make forward-looking arrangements for green hydrogen storage and transportation infrastructure. Leap in energy storage scale : Advance pumped-storage hydropower in stages, implement a special action for the large-scale development of new-type energy storage, and build a diversified energy storage system; by the end of the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, new-type ESS installations are expected to reach 60 million kW , and demand-side response capability is expected to exceed 5 of the region’s maximum load. Coordinated pipeline network upgrade : Optimize the oil and gas pipeline network; by the end of the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, natural gas pipeline mileage is expected to exceed 8,000 km , while the green hydrogen storage and transportation network will be improved in parallel. II. Rare Earth Industry: Extending, Supplementing, and Strengthening the Industry Chain, with a Focus on High-End Materials Such as Hydrogen Storage The Outline made clear to accelerate extending, supplementing, and strengthening the industry chain for the light rare earth industry , with a focus on developing: high-performance magnetic materials, high-performance polishing materials, hydrogen storage materials , catalytic materials and additives, rare earth steel, and other high-end rare earth new materials and end-use applications industries. Leveraging its advantages in rare earth resources, it will provide critical material support for industries such as hydrogen energy and new energy, and build a nationally leading base for rare earth new materials. III. Scientific and Technological Innovation: Focusing on Advantageous Fields Such as Green Hydrogen-Ammonia-Methanol The Outline proposed to implement a number of major science and technology tasks , focusing on fields including: new energy, rare earth new materials, carbon-based new materials, semiconductor new materials, green hydrogen-ammonia-methanol , biopharmaceuticals, biological breeding, and grassland and dairy industries, among others. It will deliver more landmark original achievements, providing technological support for the green hydrogen, green ammonia, and green methanol industries. IV. Significance of the Plan: Anchoring National Strategy and Leading the Energy Transition This plan closely integrates hydrogen energy, energy storage, rare earths, and green hydrogen-ammonia-methanol. It is not only a key measure to implement the country’s “dual carbon” goals, but also a core lever for Inner Mongolia to leverage its two major strengths in wind and solar power resources and rare earth resources and build a nationally important base for energy and strategic resources. As a number of wind and solar power-based hydrogen production projects, such as the Huadian Darhan Muminggan Banner project, advance, Inner Mongolia is accelerating its transformation from a major energy region into a leading green hydrogen region and an energy storage hub .