[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Demand side, SHFE copper prices rose during the night session yesterday, and downstream enterprises' acceptance of current price levels declined notably. Intraday purchasing sentiment pulled back, reflecting the suppressive effect of high prices on demand. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened to 180-110 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed some sentiment to hold prices firm, with low willingness to sell, providing certain support for spot discounts. Regional supply side, consumption momentum weakened in north China regions such as Gansu, Shanxi, and Henan, with some smelters resuming shipments to the Shanghai area. Available spot cargo in the east China market may increase going forward, posing potential downward pressure on spot discounts. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area was recorded at 188,000 mt, down 2,800 mt WoW. The destocking pace slowed down significantly, indicating that current copper prices had weak appeal to downstream enterprises. Overall, amid the interplay between support from the price spread between futures contracts structure and expectations of cargo flowing back from the north, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

[SMM Analysis: Tight Effective Graphite Anode Capacity Drives Expansion Wave] As effective capacity in the traditional graphite anode material industry was tight at year-end 2025, China's graphite anode enterprises intensively disclosed progress on expansion projects in Q1 2026.

[Molybdenum Concentrates Auction Information] SMM April 22: On April 22, a mine in Henan tendered 100 mt of molybdenum concentrates with a grade of 45%-50%. The auction transaction price was 4,655 yuan/mtu, with a tender floor price of 4,570 yuan/mtu, cash.

This week, the weekly operating rate of China's leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises pulled back 0.5 percentage points WoW to 64.7%. The industry continued its weak recovery pattern, with divergence among segments intensifying.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Rose After a Slightly Higher Opening in the Night Session, with Downstream End-User Enterprises Generally Maintaining a Wait-and-See Stance]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.20 Futures: Last Friday during the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract 2609 opened at 2,762 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 2,777 yuan/mt and a low of 2,748 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,750 yuan/mt, up 84 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 134,000 lots to 274,000 lots, with continued tug-of-war between bulls and bears. From a technical perspective, the closing price was below MA5 (2,780.4), MA10 (2,790.50), and MA30 (2,938.23), indicating certain overhead resistance for upward moves. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DEA (-28.37) crossed above DIF (-54.32), with the "death cross continuing" and the histogram at -31.91. Alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts, commissioning plans for new capacity, and inventory changes. Ore: As of April 15, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $68.99/mt, up $0.04/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $38.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $69/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $56.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF average price was at $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $63/mt, up $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The Ghana bauxite CIF price was at $78/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $81.5/mt, up $3/mt from last Friday. Overall, domestic ore supply remained relatively sufficient, and ore prices were basically stable. For imported ore, amid ocean freight rate fluctuations, some mines controlled shipments, providing certain support for ore prices. However, alumina refinery inventory in China remained at high levels (approximately 92 days), and alumina refineries showed weak purchase willingness, with continued price negotiations between buyers and sellers. Ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term, and the market should focus on the implementation of Guinea's "quota system" policy and ocean freight rate trends. Spot Price: As of April 16, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,680.25 yuan/mt, down 13.32 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,650.82 yuan/mt, down 14.71 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,691.88 yuan/mt, down 16.96 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,685.65 yuan/mt, down 26.21 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,726.82 yuan/mt, down 13.4 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,665.39 yuan/mt, down 13.88 yuan/mt MoM. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on April 16, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 13.25 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract based on the latest transaction price at 11:30 AM. Warrant Daily Report: On April 16, total registered alumina warrants increased by 4,799 mt from the previous trading day to 478,900 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Shandong remained flat from the previous trading day at 58,375 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Henan increased by 4,795 mt from the previous trading day to 36,322 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Guangxi increased by 4 mt from the previous trading day to 17,434 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Gansu remained flat from the previous trading day at 49,847 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang remained flat from the previous trading day at 310,900 mt. Markets Outside China: As of April 16, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was at $306/mt, the ocean freight rate was at $30.05/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.84. This translated to a selling price at major domestic ports of approximately 2,678.42 yuan/mt, which was 1.83 yuan/mt below the alumina index price. According to the SMM model, the import window remained open. Summary: Supply side, the industry operating rate edged up this week, mainly driven by production resumptions after production line upgrades in Shanxi and continued ramp-up of new capacity in Guangxi. Demand side, aluminum operations remained stable overall, with demand holding steady. Domestic inventory continued the inventory buildup trend this week, with total inventory up 48,000 mt WoW. Overall, the alumina market is still in an inventory buildup cycle, primarily driven by continued supply release coupled with increasing port arrivals and warrant registrations. Looking ahead to next week, as new capacity in Guangxi is further released, supply is expected to maintain growth, inventory is likely to continue accumulating, and prices are expected to remain under pressure. [Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

In the spot market, the price center of lead shifted slightly upward this week (April 13-17, 2026). Downstream buyers mostly made just-in-time procurement on demand and restocked on dips, with weak purchase willingness at high prices. Overall transactions in the spot market eased slightly WoW. This week, mainstream transaction prices of primary lead in Henan maintained parity or a slight discount against SMM #1 lead. Traders offered at a discount of 180-130 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2605 contract. At the beginning of the week, smelters held back from selling at low prices, and spot orders were limited. In Hunan, prices gradually shifted from a discount to parity or a slight premium during the week, with some plants holding prices firm on shipments after their inventory was sold out. In Guangdong, suppliers maintained offers at a premium of 25-100 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, with transactions supported by just-in-time procurement.

SMM April 17 News: From April 10 to April 16, 2026, SMM statistics showed that the weekly operating rate of secondary lead across four provinces in China was 41.94%, down 2.87 percentage points WoW. In Anhui, the operating rate dropped 7.67 percentage points due to enterprise equipment failures and raw material shortages. In Henan, some enterprises cut production due to insufficient raw materials. In Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia, as lead prices fluctuated in the first half of the week and recyclers' shipments improved, raw material restocking led to a slight production increase. Next week, the probability of recyclers holding back from selling is expected to rise, and expectations for production cuts at smelters are expected to strengthen, with the operating rate projected to decline by another 0.6 percentage points.

This week (April 10–16, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in the three provinces was 63.42%, up 1.93 percentage points WoW. This week, smelters in Henan operated steadily with the operating rate unchanged from last week; production at smelters in Hunan declined slightly; a large smelter in Yunnan that had previously shut down for maintenance resumed production, lifting the regional operating rate; smelters in other regions maintained overall stable production.

SMM April 17 News: Metals Market: Overnight, domestic base metals generally rose. SHFE copper fell 0.06%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.97%, SHFE lead fell 0.98%. SHFE zinc rose 0.08%. SHFE tin rose 0.05%. SHFE nickel rose 0.11%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.42%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.72%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.45%, stainless steel rose 1.39%, rebar rose 0.42%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.33%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 0.28%, coke rose 0.74%. Overnight, overseas metals generally rose. LME copper fell 0.26%. LME aluminum rose 0.55%, LME lead fell 0.99%. LME zinc rose 0.6%. LME tin rose 1.31%. LME nickel rose 0.41%. Overnight Precious Metals : COMEX gold fell 0.26%, COMEX silver fell 1.47%. Overnight SHFE gold rose 0.17%, SHFE silver fell 1.43%. As of 7:02 AM on April 17, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Launching 2026 Central Fiscal Support for Urban Renewal Action] The General Office of the Ministry of Finance and the General Office of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice on launching the 2026 central fiscal support for urban renewal action. The notice stated that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will select, through competitive evaluation, certain cities with strong foundational conditions, high enthusiasm, and distinctive features, to integrate various resources at the city level, explore the establishment of guarantee mechanisms for funding, land use, finance, and other key factors, and form a coordinated effort. The central government will provide fixed-amount subsidies to selected cities. Selected cities will formulate urban renewal work plans, coordinate the use of central and local funds, significantly improve urban infrastructure levels, enhance the living environment in old districts, refine laws and regulations, planning standards, investment and financing mechanisms, and related supporting policies, and explore replicable and scalable mechanisms and models for urban renewal. In 2026, the scope of central fiscal support for urban renewal covers prefecture-level and above cities, with no more than 15 cities to be selected. [State Administration for Market Regulation: Dynamically Adjusting CCC Certification Catalog to Avoid Low-Price, Low-Quality Involution-Style Competition] The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) deployed a nationwide special campaign to safeguard the bottom line of CCC certification, strengthening CCC certification supervision across the entire chain and in all dimensions to create a safe and reassuring consumer environment. Compulsory product certification, commonly known as CCC certification, is a conformity assessment system with market access nature established by the Chinese government in accordance with WTO rules and international practices. Products listed in the CCC certification catalog must obtain certification before they can be shipped, imported, or sold. This special campaign emphasized strictness. Comprehensive supervisory inspections will be conducted on designated certification bodies, focusing on key areas such as power banks, e-bikes, and gas-burning appliances, with effectiveness spot checks. The campaign will further advance the pilot reform of CCC certification marks, precisely crack down on fraudulent CCC certification marks, and strengthen product quality responsibility traceability. A SAMR official stated that, to further strengthen source governance of product quality and safety, the CCC certification catalog will be optimized with dynamic management, and research will be conducted to bring products involving industrial safety, public safety, and personal health safety under CCC certification management. In response to issues arising after some products in the CCC certification catalog adopted self-declaration evaluation, such as some enterprises failing to fulfill quality responsibilities and false commitments leading to declining product quality, SAMR has switched 16 product categories, including small-power motors and automotive safety glass, to third-party certification management. Certification and detection institutions are required to conduct cost accounting and charge reasonable fees based on publicly disclosed standards after accounting, to avoid low-price, low-quality involution-style competition. (CCTV News) [National Energy Administration Deploys Nationwide Special Campaign to Improve Power Supply Quality] Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued a notice, organizing local government departments, power grid enterprises, user enterprises, industry associations, and other parties to work in coordination. Focusing on new requirements for power supply quality arising from the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, the cultivation and expansion of emerging industries, and the forward-looking development of future industries, the campaign centers on addressing key issues such as voltage sags. Targeting full coverage of terminal monitoring for new quality productive forces-related enterprises sensitive to power quality, and significantly reducing the impact of voltage sags on key power supply lines on the production and operations of new quality productive forces-related enterprises, a series of specific measures were proposed. The special campaign for power supply quality improvement will be implemented over three years, with all tasks to be fully completed by the end of 2028, driving stronger power supply assurance capabilities for high-quality development of new quality productive forces, broader coverage, more effective support, and more efficient service response, striving to address the "lingering concerns" of new quality productive forces development and providing safer and more efficient energy and power support for high-quality economic and social development. (National Energy Administration) [Chinese Research Team Pioneers Green Extraction Technology for Critical Metals] A research team composed of Researcher Gao Jun and Professor Li Chaoxu from the Qingdao Institute of Bioenergy and Bioprocess Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the National Key Laboratory of Solar Energy Photoelectric Conversion and Utilization, together with Researcher Jiang Lei from the Technical Institute of Physics and Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, successfully developed a universal heavy metal ion membrane separation method inspired by biological calcium ion channels. This method can efficiently, greenly, and selectively extract uranium, copper, gold, and other heavy metal resources critical to new energy, and is expected to solve the long-standing challenges of high pollution, low efficiency, and high energy consumption in traditional heavy metal resource extraction technologies. (CCTV News) [Nanjing: Expanding Housing Provident Fund Cross-Regional Loan Coverage to All of Anhui Province] The Nanjing Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice to optimize housing provident fund usage policies. It specified that the scope of housing provident fund cross-regional loans will be expanded to cover all of Anhui province. Building on the existing 17 cities in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, the cross-regional loan coverage will be extended to all of Anhui province. Housing provident fund contributors in all 29 cities across Jiangsu and Anhui provinces can apply for housing provident fund loans from the Nanjing Housing Provident Fund Management Center when purchasing property in Nanjing. Nanjing housing provident fund contributors purchasing owner-occupied housing in any city in Anhui province can process housing provident fund purchase withdrawals and loan repayment withdrawals in accordance with Nanjing's relevant policies, without restrictions based on the contributor's workplace or household registration location. [Zhengzhou: Adjusting the Upper Age Limit for Housing Provident Fund Personal Housing Loan Borrowers] The Zhengzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice on adjusting the upper age limit for housing provident fund personal housing loan borrowers. After deliberation, it was decided to adjust the upper age limit. For employees with delayed retirement applying for housing provident fund personal housing loans, subject to a maximum loan term of no more than 30 years, the loan maturity age for males is extended from the original 65 to 68, and for females from the original 60 to 63. This notice takes effect from the date of issuance. Matters not covered herein shall be governed by existing policies, and where the state has other provisions, those provisions shall prevail. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.2. US Fed Governor Miran stated that, given the inflation situation that existed before the Middle East conflict, he may again lower his interest rate cut expectations for this year. Miran said: "If I were writing my dot on the dot plot now, I would lean toward 3 cuts, maybe 4. I haven't decided yet." In March, Miran projected four 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, but he indicated that the pace of cuts could slow down as price trends became "less favorable." Former US Treasury Secretary Paulson called on the US government to develop a contingency plan to prevent a potential collapse in demand for US Treasuries. He warned that such a scenario would have "extremely serious" consequences. Paulson said: "We need an emergency response plan that is targeted and short-term, prepared in advance, and ready to be activated once a tipping point is reached." Paulson noted that if the $31 trillion US Treasury market were to malfunction, it would be fundamentally different from the financial crisis he dealt with during his tenure two decades ago. "It was already bad then, but the government still had fiscal space to address the credit crisis. But if a US public debt crisis occurs, hitting a tipping point where the government tries to issue Treasuries but the US Fed is the only buyer, and Treasury prices fall while interest rates rise, that would be a very dangerous situation." For years, US budget experts have warned of a potential "doom loop": as government debt continues to expand, investors demand higher yields, driving up government interest expenses and further widening the fiscal deficit. In an extreme scenario, if the Treasury cannot raise enough funds to pay interest or principal, the market generally believes the US Fed would have to step in as an emergency buyer. Paulson said, "Once it happens, the shock will be very severe, so we must be prepared for this possibility." According to the CME FedWatch tool: the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Fed in April was 0.5%, with a 99.5% probability of holding rates unchanged. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut by June was 1.4%, with a 98% probability of holding rates unchanged and a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. (Jin10 Data) Additionally, on the data front, US initial jobless claims fell last week, indicating that labour market conditions remained stable, although employers remained cautious about hiring new workers as the Middle East conflict cast a shadow over the economy. The latest data showed that US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 fell by 11,000 to 207,000, below the market expectation of 215,000. Initial jobless claims this year have remained within the range of 201,000 to 230,000. While layoffs remained low, the oil price shock from the US-Israeli war against Iran may have hindered hiring. Economists noted that the labour market had already been in a state of stagnation before the war broke out, attributing it to the uncertainty brought by Trump's sweeping import tariffs and mass deportations. Economists said the Middle East conflict was just another layer of uncertainty for businesses. (Jin10 Data) Macro Front: Today, data including the eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account and the eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance will be released. Also worth watching: 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will deliver a speech. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.72% and Brent up 3.46%. The market was concerned about whether renewed US-Iran peace negotiations could ease supply disruptions. The US launched an operation codenamed "Economic Fury" against Iran, imposing maximum economic pressure. The Iranian armed forces stated that Iran's military was fully prepared for defense. (Jin10 Data) US President Trump said he expected a deal with Iran to be announced soon, claiming the deal would bring the US "free oil" and "free passage through the Strait of Hormuz." When asked about the economy and oil prices, Trump said current oil prices were lower than previously expected. He said: "If you look at oil prices and what we're paying, it's about half of what people originally expected, provided you do what I had to do." He added: "I think the negotiations are going very well right now. If a deal is reached, it will be announced soon, and it will give us free oil and free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Everything will be fine. I think oil prices will be even lower than before." (Jin10 Data) CITIC Securities pointed out that the US-Israel-Iran conflict has effectively created three fault lines: oil price shocks on the energy front, physical disruptions on the supply front, and leverage games on the geopolitical front. The market's pricing of oil price shocks largely reflects cost-side pressure transmitting downstream, but this framework follows the old logic of a closed economy. Under global exposure, as ex-China supply capability is impaired by cost-side shocks, Chinese enterprises may see medium and long-term opportunities for margin expansion. As the world shifts from "efficiency first" to "security first," recurring conflicts will inevitably pose ongoing challenges to supply chains. Following three medium and long-term themes—accelerated electrification, order diversion and substitution, and supply chain diplomacy—actively going long on the resilience of China's supply chain will be an important investment theme for global investors to hedge against fluctuations and navigate through cycles.