[SMM HRC Daily Trading] On March 6, the total daily HRC trading volume of sampled enterprises in four SMM cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, and Ningbo) was 12,030 mt, up 1,350 mt day-on-day (+12.6%); up 10.16% YoY on a calendar-year basis, and down 43.89% YoY on a lunar-calendar basis.

[SMM HRC Daily Trading Volume] On March 5, the total daily HRC trading volume of sampled enterprises in four SMM cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, and Ningbo) was 10,680 mt, up 120 mt WoW (+1.1%). On a calendar YoY basis, it fell 32.19%, while on a lunar-calendar YoY basis, it rose 26.84%.

This week, HRC social inventory was 3.5487 million mt, up 148,300 mt WoW (+4.36%), up 22.54% YoY, and up 25.40% YoY on a lunar-calendar basis. This week, HRC mill inventory was 1.1431 million mt, down 93,100 mt WoW (-7.53%), down 3.25% YoY, and down 4.17% YoY on a lunar-calendar basis. This week, total HRC inventory was 4.6918 million mt, up 55,200 mt WoW (+1.19%), up 15.07% YoY, and up 16.63% YoY on a lunar-calendar basis.

【SMM Steel】SAIL selected Primetals Technologies to supply a new pellet plant, three 165-t ladle furnaces, and two 165-t RH degassers for its IISCO expansion. The 4.2 Mt/y pellet plant will use a 576-sqm straight-grate design. Primetals will also provide digitalization and key equipment. Secondary metallurgy gear will improve steel quality. Commissioning is set for 2029, enabling IISCO to produce HRC and API-grade steel.

This week, Lecong HRC inventory stood at 1.0397 million mt, up 57,100 mt WoW (+5.81%); down 3.50% YoY on the Gregorian calendar basis, and up 5.89% YoY on the lunar calendar basis.

This week, ferrous metals held up well within a narrow range. Over the weekend, turmoil in the Middle East and the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict triggered wild swings in the international energy market, sending energy and precious metals sharply higher, while ferrous metals—except coking coal and coke—mostly retreated after rapid rise following the open; mid-week, although there were bullish expectations around the Two Sessions, no new news emerged, the steel market remained relatively stable, and the pattern of raw materials outperforming finished steel products continued; in the latter half of the week, the Two Sessions’ macro conclusions met expectations, but had already been priced in by futures earlier, and high-level fluctuations in international oil prices continued to support raw materials, in turn pushing ferrous metals to edge higher on a steady footing. In the spot market, in the second week after the holiday, the market gradually resumed work and resumed production, but with insufficient momentum from futures, overall willingness to purchase was not high, and transactions were mainly concluded at low prices......

Market reports on March 3, 2026, indicate that the ongoing conflict in the Gulf region has caused a significant spike in ocean freight rates. This is particularly affecting the landed cost of iron ore and HRC (Hot Rolled Coil) for sensitive destinations. While mine-side prices remain stable, the rising cost of logistics is beginning to squeeze margins for international steel traders.

On February 18, 2026, the WTO Committee on Safeguards issued a notification of safeguard measures submitted by the Egyptian delegation. The Egyptian investigating authority made an affirmative final determination on imported Hot Rolled Flat Steel (HRC/HRFS) and recommended imposing safeguard duties (including provisional safeguard measures) based on the CIF value for three years, as follows: from September 14, 2025, to September 13, 2026, at 13.6% and not less than 3,673 EGP/mt; from September 14, 2026, to September 13, 2027, at 13% and not less than 3,511 EGP/mt; from September 14, 2027, to September 13, 2028, at 12.5% and not less than 3,376 EGP/mt. The implementation of these measures will be subject to a ministerial tax order. These measures do not apply to HRC with a thickness exceeding 20 millimeters and a width greater than 1,600 millimeters. The Egyptian tariff numbers for the products under investigation are 7208.10, 7208.25, 7208.26, 7208.27, 7208.36, 7208.37, 7208.38, 7208.39, 7208.40, 7208.51, 7208.52, 7208.53, 7208.54, 7208.90, 7211.14, 7211.19, 7225.30, 7225.40, 7226.91, and 7226.99. Interested parties should submit applications for consultations within seven days of the announcement. Contact details of the Egyptian investigating authority: Ministry of Investment and Foreign Trade Trade Remedies Sector Contact: Mrs. Yomna Elshabrawy Address: New Capital – Governmental District Cairo, Egypt. Email: mailto:itpd@tas.gov.eg On April 27, 2025, Egypt announced in its official gazette that, at the request of Egyptian producers, it initiated a safeguard investigation on imported HRC on April 22, 2025. On September 10, 2025, the WTO Committee on Safeguards issued a notification of safeguard measures submitted by the Egyptian delegation, stating that Egypt made an affirmative preliminary determination in the case. The period of investigation was from January 2021 to December 2024. (Compiled from the WTO website) Original text: https://docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/SS/directdoc.aspx?filename=Q:/G/SG/N8EGY11.pdf&Open=True

[SMM Analysis] Significant Accumulation of HRC in Ningbo After the Holiday, Slow Demand Recovery Drags on Transactions According to the SMM survey, in the first week after the holiday, the large-aperture inventory of SMM HRC in Ningbo was 492,000 mt (as of February 25), up 114,000 mt WoW from the week before the holiday. This week, HRC futures first rose and then fell, with spot prices falling by 10-30 yuan/mt WoW from the period before the holiday, and transaction performance was relatively poor during the week. As of the afternoon close on February 27, the most-traded HRC 2605 futures contract closed at 3,215 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, according to the SMM survey, in the Ningbo spot trading market this week, in terms of prices, as of the afternoon of February 27, spot offers closed at 3,230-3,240 yuan/mt, with prices falling by 10 yuan/mt WoW from February 13 during the week. In terms of transactions, the recovery pace of downstream procurement demand after the holiday fell short of expectations, with overall transactions being relatively poor. Even when futures rose mid-week, it was difficult to achieve transactions when spot prices followed the adjustment. In terms of arrivals, the shipping pace of mainstream resources was normal, with an increase in DDH arrivals, so the extent of inventory accumulation was slightly higher than expected. Looking ahead, with logistics returning to normal, inventories will gradually decline, but given the current slow recovery in demand, the decline is not expected to be overly optimistic, and it is anticipated to gradually expand over the next 2-3 weeks. This week, SMM released its weekly HRC balance data, showing an MoM increase in HRC production. This week, SMM statistics showed that the total social inventory of HRC in 86 warehouses (large sample) across the country was 5.3775 million mt, up 1.1404 million mt from the period before the holiday and up 31.57% YoY on the lunar calendar. By region, the markets with significant accumulation were in southern China, eastern China, and northern China. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

HRC prices rose first and then fell this week. The most-traded contract closed at 3,215 yuan/mt in today's session, down 0.25% on the day. Spot HRC offers in major cities fluctuated 10-30 yuan/mt WoW from pre-holiday levels, with weak trading activity. Market news this week mainly revolved around production restrictions and Two Sessions expectations, but these failed to provide sustained upward momentum for market sentiment. After a short-term boost, HRC prices weakened again. Returning to HRC fundamentals, HRC production continued to recover this week. However, downstream purchasing enthusiasm did not fully resume after the holiday, and traders and clients had built up certain stockpiling inventories before the holiday, leading to overall weak domestic demand.