Benefiting from both rising gold prices and increasing volumes, Zijin Mining delivered a stellar report card. In Q1, the company achieved revenue of 98.5 billion yuan, up 24.79% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm reached 20.1 billion yuan, surging 97.50% YoY, nearly doubling; total profit soared 115% YoY to 31.6 billion yuan, with all core financial metrics hitting record highs across the board. The underlying logic behind the accelerating profitability was clearly identifiable: the historic breakthrough in gold prices served as the most direct catalyst. The unit price of gold ingots jumped from 661.83 yuan/g in the same period last year to 1,089.04 yuan/g, a gain of over 64%, and the gross margin of mine-produced gold expanded from 52.91% to 69.60%; silver prices also surged in tandem, soaring from 5.50 yuan/g to 15.33 yuan/g, with the gross margin of mine-produced silver leaping to a remarkable 85.59%. The company's overall mine enterprise gross margin rose from 59.94% to 71.01%, and the comprehensive gross margin also climbed from 22.89% to 36.33%, with the price dividend fully realized. Meanwhile, the rise of the lithium segment was reshaping the company's profit structure. Lithium carbonate equivalent production reached 16,229 mt in Q1, compared to only 1,376 mt in the same period last year, up over 10 times YoY, with an average selling price of 101,456 yuan/mt and a gross margin as high as 61.44%. The company expects full-year 2026 lithium carbonate production to reach 120,000 mt, and plans to increase it to 270,000–320,000 mt by 2028, at which point it will rank among the world's largest lithium ore producers. The lithium business is evolving from a marginal increment to a core profit engine. Gold Prices Exceeded Expectations, with the Gold Segment Contributing Core Profits Gold was the largest engine of profit growth this quarter. The company's mines produced 23,497 kg of gold, up 23% YoY, benefiting not only from volume growth but also from a price tailwind. The average price of gold ingots reached 1,089.04 yuan/g, and the average price of gold concentrates reached 1,010.55 yuan/g, up approximately 65% and 64% YoY, respectively. The sources of incremental growth also warranted attention. Zijin Gold International's newly acquired Akyem Gold Mine in Ghana and Ridgold Polymetallic Mine in Kazakhstan, acquired in 2025, had begun contributing production, with the benefits of external M&A gradually being released. Under the resonance of high gold prices and volume growth, the gross margin of mine-produced gold business surged significantly: the gold ingot gross margin rose from 52.91% to 69.60%, and the gold concentrates gross margin climbed from 71.05% to 80.89%, delivering a notable boost to overall profits. Copper: Kamoa-Kakula Production Cuts Dragged Down Output, While Other Mines Advanced Steadily The copper segment produced 259,214 mt of mine-produced copper in Q1, down from 287,571 mt in the same period last year, primarily due to a sharp decline in equity production at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine — plunging from 59,163 mt in the same period last year to 27,361 mt, a drop of over 50%. Excluding this disruption, the company's other copper mines all advanced in an orderly manner as planned. Of particular note was the Julong Copper Mine Phase II, which was officially commissioned in late January 2026 and contributed 60,000 mt of mine-produced copper in Q1. The capacity was still in the ramp-up stage, with further incremental output expected going forward. Rising copper prices also effectively offset the volume pressure. The average price of copper concentrates rose from 60,179 yuan/mt to 81,543 yuan/mt, with the gross margin further improving from 65.05% to 70.84%; the gross margins of electrodeposition copper and copper cathode also expanded to 61.61% and 56.20%, respectively. The smelting copper business had a gross margin of only 0.32% due to thin processing profits, but scale effects still enabled it to contribute a considerable absolute profit amount. Lithium Segment: A Leap from Zero to One, Targeting the World's Largest by 2028 The lithium business was the segment with the most dramatic changes in this quarterly report. Lithium carbonate equivalent production reached 16,229 mt (with Q1 sales of 13,329 mt), achieving an order-of-magnitude expansion from the base of 1,376 mt in the same period last year, driven by the capacity ramp-up following the successive commissioning of multiple projects including the 3Q Salt Lake lithium mine, the Lagocuo Salt Lake lithium mine, and the Xiangyuan hard-rock lithium mine. Profitability was equally impressive — lithium carbonate had an average selling price of 101,456 yuan/mt and a gross margin of 61.44%, second only to silver and ranking as the second highest among all products, reflecting the inherent cost advantages of salt lake lithium resources. In stark contrast, the lithium carbonate gross margin in Q4 last year was only 24.59%, surging nearly 37 percentage points within just one quarter, benefiting from both improved product mix and a cyclical recovery in lithium prices. Of greater strategic significance was the long-term plan: the main mining and processing workflow of the Manono lithium mine northeast project had been fully connected, and is expected to be completed and commissioned in June this year; the company plans to achieve lithium carbonate equivalent production of 270,000–320,000 mt by 2028, at which point it will become one of the world's largest lithium ore producers. Management has explicitly positioned the lithium segment as the "third pillar" core profit source after copper and gold. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: Ample Ammunition, Strong Foundation for Expansion Financial structure side, total assets reached 549.9 billion yuan at the end of Q1, up 7.41% from the beginning of the year; the cash and bank balance was 99.4 billion yuan, a significant increase of 33.8 billion yuan from 65.6 billion yuan at the beginning of the year, with cash and cash equivalents reaching 90.3 billion yuan at period-end. The ample cash reserves provided sufficient ammunition for the company to pursue global mine M&A opportunities and fund capital expenditures on projects under construction. Net assets side, equity attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm reached 200.4 billion yuan, up 8.02% from the beginning of the year; the weighted average return on equity (ROE) reached 10.35%, up 3.23 percentage points from 7.12% in the same period last year, with capital return efficiency continuing to improve. The liability side saw some expansion, with short-term borrowings increasing from 32.3 billion yuan to 41.2 billion yuan, bonds payable rising from 47.4 billion yuan to 56.3 billion yuan, and total liabilities amounting to 282.5 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 21.5 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, primarily to support project construction and capacity expansion. Although the absolute scale of debt rose, the company's debt-servicing capacity was not under pressure given the significant improvement in operating cash flow, with the asset-liability ratio at approximately 51.4%, remaining well under control overall.

SMM April 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw broad gains across base metals in the domestic market. SHFE copper rose 0.78%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper posted a four-week winning streak, gaining 4.07% for the week. SHFE aluminum fell 1.25%, SHFE lead rose 0.24%, SHFE zinc rose 0.71%, SHFE tin rose 0.03%, and SHFE nickel fell 2.19%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 1.01%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract fell 1.18%. Last Friday's overnight session saw ferrous metals all fall. Iron ore fell 0.58%, stainless steel fell 0.27%, rebar fell 0.16%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.24%, and coke fell 0.18%. Overseas market metals last Friday overnight, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper rose 0.81%; on a weekly basis, LME copper posted a four-day winning streak, gaining 3.83% for the week. LME aluminum fell 2.72%, LME lead rose 0.8%, LME zinc rose 0.25%, LME tin rose 0.03%, and LME nickel rose 1.69%. Precious metals last Friday overnight : COMEX gold rose 0.85%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 1.3%; COMEX silver rose 2.82%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.82%. Last Friday overnight, SHFE gold rose 0.94%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 0.12%; SHFE silver rose 3.74%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.18%. Gold prices rebounded amid optimistic sentiment over US-Iran negotiations, but further gains may be limited until the geopolitical situation becomes clearer. Commerzbank analysts noted: "Gold prices also rebounded on hopes of an end to the war, as this eased concerns that central banks would have to respond to higher inflation risks with tighter monetary policy, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, as long as uncertainty remains elevated, the underlying recovery in the gold market may be temporarily exhausted." As of 7:45 AM on April 18, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Deeply Implement the Strategy to Upgrade Pilot Free Trade Zones and Promote High-Quality Development of Pilot FTZs] Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to hear reports on the development of pilot free trade zones. The meeting noted that since the 18th CPC National Congress, pilot FTZs had actively explored deepening reform, expanding opening-up, and promoting development, achieving a series of breakthrough and pioneering results and effectively serving as comprehensive pilot platforms. In the face of new circumstances and new tasks, it is necessary to thoroughly implement the strategy for upgrading pilot free trade zones, reform and improve institutional mechanisms, further optimize the layout and enhance capacity, and better serve the overall national development. Efforts should be made to adapt measures to local conditions, proceed in a steady and orderly manner, and pursue practical results. On the basis of scientific assessment and evaluation, and in accordance with local conditions and actual needs, tailored plans should be formulated for each zone to solidly advance related work and promote high-quality development of pilot free trade zones. Support should be given to pilot free trade zones such as Shanghai to leverage their functional positioning, proactively align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expand institutional opening-up in terms of rules, regulations, management, and standards, explore and develop more replicable and scalable experiences and practices, and better play a demonstrative, leading, and radiating role. (CCTV News) [MOF and Another Department: Adjusting the Scope of VAT and Consumption Tax Refund Goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone] The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the adjustment of the scope of VAT and consumption tax refund goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone. Goods related to production sold from the mainland to Pingtan via the "second line" shall be treated as exports, and VAT and consumption tax refunds shall be implemented in accordance with current tax policy provisions. However, the following goods are excluded: 1 Exported goods to which the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have stipulated that VAT refund (exemption) and tax exemption policies do not apply. 2 Goods procured for commercial real estate development projects in Pingtan. Commercial real estate development projects refer to the construction (including renovation and expansion) of hotels, office buildings, villas, apartments, residences, commercial shopping venues, entertainment and service facilities, catering establishments, and other commercial real estate projects. 3 Other goods sold from the mainland to Pingtan that are not eligible for tax refunds. The specific scope is detailed in the appendix. 4 Goods purchased by enterprises whose tax refund or exemption eligibility has been revoked in accordance with relevant regulations. (Ministry of Finance) (Jin10 Data APP) [General Administration of Customs: Supporting Local Governments in Building Bulk Commodity Collection, Distribution, Storage, and Transportation Bases Leveraging Comprehensive Bonded Zones to Conduct Storage and Distribution of Bulk Commodities Such as Energy and Mineral Products] On April 17, the General Office of the State Council forwarded the notice of the General Administration of Customs on Several Measures for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of Comprehensive Bonded Zones. Among the measures proposed, serving national strategic needs was highlighted. Support is given to local governments to build bulk commodity collection, distribution, storage, and transportation bases leveraging comprehensive bonded zones, and to conduct storage and distribution of bulk commodities such as energy and mineral products. Enterprises within the zones are allowed to carry out physical blending of metal ore products through bonded logistics. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented. Support is given to enterprises within the zones to conduct key core technology research in areas such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, industrial master machines, medical equipment, instruments and meters, advanced materials, basic software, and industrial software. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented for relevant equipment, reagents, and consumables imported by enterprises in accordance with national statutory inspection requirements. [CSRC Solicits Public Comments on the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) and Supporting Implementation Provisions] Building on the public consultation conducted in March 2023, the CSRC, in light of new circumstances and issues encountered in futures industry regulatory practice, conducted further research and deliberation on the relevant institutional arrangements of the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies, and formulated a new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft). Concurrently, the CSRC drafted the Announcement on Matters Concerning the Implementation of the (Exposure Draft) as supporting implementation provisions. Public comments are now being solicited. The new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) shifts futures market-making and derivatives trading businesses — previously operated by risk management subsidiaries with filing-based access and self-regulatory management by the China Futures Association — to be operated by futures companies, subject to licensing-based access and administrative supervision, and strengthens the regulation of futures companies' subsidiaries and branches. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index rose 0.02% to 98.22. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index fell for a third consecutive week, down 0.48% for the week. After Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was now "fully open" to commercial shipping, the US dollar erased all gains since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, further weakening demand for safe-haven assets. The index declined consecutively as investors focused on ceasefire and negotiations toward a potentially broader agreement. Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities, said: "The safe-haven bid has started to fade. That's why the dollar is lower." (Jin10 Data) Fed Governor Waller said he was cautious about whether an interest rate cut was needed in the near term due to the energy shock triggered by the Iran war, and warned that the conflict could have a lasting impact on inflation. In his remarks, Waller outlined two main scenarios. In the first scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and trade flows return to normal, officials would be able to look through the surge in energy prices and shift their focus to the weakening job market later this year. He said that if this were the case, "I think there is a prospect that underlying inflation will continue to pull back toward the 2% target, which would make me cautious about cutting interest rates now and more inclined to support the labour market through interest rate cuts later this year when the outlook is more stable." However, he warned that oil prices and the broader market were underestimating the risk of a prolonged conflict. "On the inflation front, the risk is that the longer the conflict lasts and the longer energy prices stay high, the greater the likelihood that these elevated prices seep into other prices, as enterprises factor high energy input costs into their pricing."He stated that if this occurred against a backdrop of a weak jobs market, it would limit the scope for policy response. In such a scenario, he would weigh the risks of higher inflation against a weaker labour market, adding that "if inflation risks outweigh labour market risks, this could mean keeping the policy rate at the current target range." (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member De Marco: June is a more natural time to make a judgment; there is not much additional information in April; the situation seems to be heading toward an adverse scenario; the rate decisions in April or June are not yet set in stone. (Jin10 Data) Analysts at Berenberg Bank said in a report that once the worst of the Middle East conflict passes, Europe's positive fundamentals should re-emerge. Economic growth is likely to be led by Germany, which, in addition to fiscal stimulus, should accelerate pro-growth reforms. They stated: "We expect most eurozone member states to return to their 2025 growth rates by 2027." By 2028, eurozone growth is expected to be around 1.5%. The UK should experience a greater upside. By contrast, US growth is expected to slow down in the coming years. The analysts stated: "Tariff-induced capital misallocation, pervasive Trump policy uncertainty, and most importantly, the harsh crackdown on immigration will all take a toll." (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: China's 1-year Loan Prime Rate as of April 20; Germany's March PPI MoM; Canada's March CPI MoM; Switzerland's March trade balance; UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate; UK March unemployment rate; UK March jobseeker's allowance claimant count; Germany's April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; eurozone April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; US March retail sales MoM; US February business inventory MoM; US March pending home sales index MoM; UK March CPI MoM; UK March Retail Price Index MoM; eurozone April consumer confidence index preliminary reading; China's March SWIFT RMB share in global payments; France's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; Germany's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; eurozone April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April services PMI preliminary reading; UK April CBI industrial orders balance; US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18; US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; US April S&P Global services PMI preliminary reading; Japan's March core CPI YoY; UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM; Germany's April IFO Business Climate Index; Canada's February retail sales MoM; US April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading; and US April one-year inflation expectations final reading. In addition, other events to watch this week included: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde delivering speeches; the US Senate Banking Committee holding a hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman; China opening a new round of refined oil price adjustment window; ECB President Lagarde delivering a speech; US President Trump hosting an early summer White House Correspondents' Dinner. (Jin10 Data) Crude Oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell sharply overnight, with WTI crude dropping 7.86% and Brent crude falling 7.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude futures fell more than 10% for two consecutive weeks, down 13.02% for the week; Brent crude posted two consecutive weekly declines, down 2.92% for the week. Easing market sentiment from US-Iran nuclear negotiations, coupled with Iran's foreign minister stating that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to all commercial vessels during the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, drove crude oil prices lower. Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump confirmed. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on the 17th that, given the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire period. US President Trump subsequently confirmed this. (Wall Street Journal CN) However, according to the latest report from Xinhua News Agency: Iranian Islamic Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf posted on social media in the early hours of the 18th, stating that the seven statements US President Trump had previously posted on social media within one hour were "all untrue." The US failed to win wars through lies and would gain nothing in negotiations either. Ghalibaf emphasized that if the US continued to blockade Iranian ports, the Strait of Hormuz could not remain open. (Xinhua News Agency) According to Reuters, approximately 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on local time Friday, investors placed approximately $760 million in short bets on oil prices, marking yet another large wager on the world's most actively traded commodity ahead of a major development during the Middle East conflict. According to LSEG data, between 20:24 and 20:25 Beijing time on Friday, investors sold a combined 7,990 lots of Brent crude oil futures. At prevailing prices, these trades were worth approximately $760 million. Then around 20:45, Iran's foreign minister posted that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to all commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire, and within minutes, oil prices extended their intraday decline to as much as 11%. In recent months, multiple precisely timed large trades have raised concerns among US lawmakers and legal experts that decisions surrounding war and diplomacy may be giving certain traders an advantage in volatile and opaque derivatives markets. It had previously been reported that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission was investigating a series of crude oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, all of which occurred shortly before Trump made major policy shifts regarding Iran and the war. The US Department of Energy (DOE) said on Friday local time that it had lent 26.03 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to nine oil companies, marking the third batch of loans by the Trump administration aimed at curbing fuel prices that had surged since the US-Iran war began. The DOE said in a statement that companies receiving SPR loans included BP North America, ExxonMobil, and Marathon Petroleum. (Jin10 Data) As Middle Eastern supply was disrupted due to weeks of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Asian refiners turned to importing US crude oil, and US crude oil shipments through the Panama Canal approached a four-year high. According to data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler for the first half of April, US crude oil exports via this shortest route connecting the US Gulf Coast to Asia exceeded 200,000 barrels per day, approaching the highest level since July 2022. Sources said waiting times to enter the Panama Canal had extended significantly, prompting crude oil shippers to pay over $3 million for priority passage. Although the Panama Canal cannot accommodate the largest tankers, it provides a shortcut to the Far East. Traveling from the US Gulf Coast to Japan via the canal typically takes close to one month, while routing around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa could take nearly twice as long. Data showed that the vast majority of tankers heading to the Pacific in March and April carried US crude oil destined for Japan and South Korea. (Jin10 Data) In addition, four energy sources said Iraq had resumed southern oil exports after a disruption of over one month due to disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz, with a tanker having begun loading. (Jin10 Data) Note: NYMEX WTI crude oil May futures are subject to contract rollover, with the last floor trading completed at 2:30 on April 22 and the last electronic trading completed at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and contract rollover announcements to manage risk. In addition, the expiration time for US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule. Please take note. Recommended reading:

Gold prices extended their gains further on Friday, primarily driven by a weaker US dollar and a statement from Iran's foreign minister that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open during the ceasefire. This news pushed oil prices lower and eased some market concerns about inflation. During Friday's US trading session, spot gold rose nearly 2%, briefly approaching $4,900. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted that vessels passing through the strait would follow coordinated routes already published by Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization. US President Trump said he believed a deal to end the Iran war would be reached "soon," although the specific timetable remained unknown. Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, said: "The reopening of the strait is a pivotal event. With oil prices under pressure, this is expected to ease inflation concerns and reignite expectations for interest rate cuts — all of which is genuinely positive news for gold." He added that gold prices could return above $5,000 per ounce in the near term . Following the comments about the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the US dollar and oil prices extended their declines. A weaker dollar made gold more attractive to buyers holding other currencies. The move also boosted market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut before the end of the year. Traders currently see roughly a 60% probability that the US Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate before December. Gold prices had briefly declined after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February, as surging energy prices intensified inflation concerns, prompting markets to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts. Since gold itself generates no interest, it typically loses some of its appeal when borrowing costs stay high. Meanwhile, according to trade sources, Indian banks have suspended placing gold and silver orders with ex-China suppliers as the government has yet to issue official documents authorizing imports, leaving several metric tons of precious metals stranded at customs.

Wells Fargo Securities' bull-case forecast for gold suggests that after last month's pullback in gold prices, gold prices could surge remarkably to $8,000 per ounce . Before the US-Iran war broke out on February 28 this year, gold had been one of the hottest market momentum plays of the year. However, after the war began, gold prices declined. In March, gold futures prices fell nearly 11%, marking the largest single-month decline since June 2013. But the Wall Street investment bank expects the "debasement trade" — in which central banks around the world sell fiat currencies such as the US dollar in favor of more neutral safe-haven assets — could push the precious metal to new heights. Wells Fargo Securities' chief equity strategist Ohsung Kwon wrote: "We are in the fourth currency debasement cycle, which started in 2022." Kwon added: "After the recent pullback in gold prices, prices are now closer to our model's fair value of $4,500 per ounce. Looking at the three drivers, all of them suggest that currency debasement will deepen further from current levels." The strategist said that four out of five economic scenarios point to further currency debasement, and gold prices could rise to $8,000 per ounce by 2027 as a result . Spot gold and gold futures were last trading near $4,800 per ounce, implying more than 66% upside room . Conversely, Kwon's bear-case forecast shows gold prices falling to $4,000 per ounce by the end of 2027, a decline of about 17% from current levels. Kwon uses the M2/gold ratio — M2 money supply divided by the gold price per ounce — to identify the current cycle. The analyst said the ratio shows that the latest debasement cycle began in 2022, when Russia launched its military operation against Ukraine and the US entered a rate-hiking cycle, prompting central banks worldwide to ramp up gold purchases. Previous currency debasement cycles for gold occurred during: the Great Depression; the "Nixon Shock" — when then-President Richard Nixon ended the convertibility of the US dollar into gold — and the subsequent stagflation era; the War on Terror in the early 2000s; and the subprime mortgage crisis. Kwon added that currency debasement cycles last an average of 8.5 years, and the current cycle, at 3.5 years in, has not yet reached its halfway point.

[Price Review] The US-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement continued to boost market sentiment. This week, precious metal prices rebounded amid the possibility of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement and news of Trump's tariff exemptions. However, as the weekend approached, uncertainties emerged in ceasefire negotiations, with short-term geopolitical tensions showing no substantive easing. Inflation concerns reinforced the US Fed's hawkish signals, limiting gains in precious metal prices. Short-term macro sentiment was generally warm, with capital flow momentum slightly recovering, but industrial demand had not recovered. Suppliers moved inventory and shipped to delivery warehouses, and the spot market supply appeared slightly in surplus. Gold/silver ratio side, as of April 15, the LBMA gold/silver ratio stood at 61x. During the short-term precious metals rebound, silver price movements were slightly stronger than gold prices. [Key Data] Bearish: US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY, hitting the highest level since 2024 IMF downgraded growth expectations — the International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 global economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% Bullish: US March Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 4% YoY, the highest since February 2023, but significantly below market expectations of 4.6% Data and macro news releases to watch next week include: April 17: US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, US April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US March industrial production MoM, and Eurozone CPI data. April 21: Confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman nominee Warsh Geopolitics side, the temporary ceasefire agreement will expire on April 22. Whether the ceasefire is extended or a permanent agreement is reached will have a significant impact on global market risk appetite. [Price Forecast] Although the short-term US-Iran ceasefire foundation remains fragile, the macro atmosphere next week is expected to be relatively bullish, and market traders still hold optimistic expectations regarding the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict. China fundamentals side, just-in-time procurement demand from silver nitrate, silver powder, and silver paste enterprises showed no signs of improvement, and the slight inventory buildup in the spot silver ingot market is unlikely to improve in the short term. After the SHFE April delivery concluded, although some banking institutions and traders actively purchased and built positions, downstream manufacturers showed low enthusiasm for purchasing. The rising trend in spot silver ingot social inventory is unlikely to reverse, and spot transaction expectations are expected to remain at parity or may even see slight discounts. Although silver prices may continue to rebound next week amid the macro atmosphere, the trend remains full of uncertainty. Before the US Fed sends a clear interest rate cut signal and the precious metals bull market resumes, silver prices will continue to consolidate in a range-bound pattern.

Gold, long considered a reliable hedge against market volatility, has lost its luster as a safe-haven asset and now acts as a "high-beta asset" that actually amplifies market selloffs, according to economist Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution.

The gold price reached a four-week high on Wednesday morning before giving up those gains and falling back to a level just above $4,800.

SMM April 11 News: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 1.04%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.32%, SHFE lead fell 0.54%. SHFE zinc fell 0.59%. SHFE tin fell 0.09%. SHFE nickel fell 0.04%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.15%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract rose 0.59%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.27%, stainless steel rose 2.01%, rebar fell 0.03%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.06%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 0.19%, coke fell 0.18%. Last Friday's overnight overseas market metals: LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 1.27%. LME aluminum rose 1.8%, LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.3%. LME tin rose 0.89%. LME nickel rose 0.44%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 0.98%, posting a two-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 1.95% weekly gain; COMEX silver fell 0.54%, posting a three-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 4.25% weekly gain. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold fell 0.12%, posting a two-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 1.22% weekly gain; SHFE silver rose 1.47%, posting a three-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 3.65% weekly gain. Institutions including ANZ and Goldman Sachs stated that even as Middle East conflicts disrupted markets, gold is still likely to rebound in the long term. Analysts at these institutions believe that resilient central bank demand, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of US Fed interest rate cuts, and diversification away from US dollar-denominated assets all provide reasons for long-term bullishness. ANZ analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes said prices are expected to eventually rebound, as the deteriorating macro combination of economic growth and inflation paves the way for central banks to resume cutting interest rates. ANZ maintained its outlook, forecasting gold prices to reach $5,800 by year-end. Analysts wrote that central bank gold purchases are expected to remain a key support pillar, with official purchases in 2026 estimated at around 850 mt. ANZ's bullish stance echoes similar forecasts from Goldman Sachs and RBC made in early March. Goldman Sachs maintained its $5,400 forecast, citing continued central bank gold purchases and expectations of a 50-basis-point US Fed interest rate cut this year. Goldman Sachs analysts previously stated that if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, gold still faces tactical downside risks in the short term. However, prolonged conflict could accelerate diversification away from traditional Western assets, supporting gold prices in the long term. (Jin10 Data) As of 8:31 AM on April 11, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang Chairs Symposium on Economic Situation with Experts and Entrepreneurs] Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, chaired a symposium on the economic situation with experts and entrepreneurs on the afternoon of April 10, hearing opinions and suggestions on the current economic situation and the next steps for economic work. Li Qiang emphasized the need to promote high-quality and efficient development of the service industry, catering to people's needs throughout their entire life cycle and enterprises' needs across the entire process of production and operation. He called for thorough implementation of the service industry capacity expansion and quality improvement initiative, coordinating development and regulation, and cultivating more "China Services" brands. At the same time, he stressed the need to deepen and expand "AI+," accelerate the digital and intelligent transformation of manufacturing, and support the overall upgrading of the industrial system through deep integration and mutual empowerment of advanced manufacturing and modern services. Greater efforts should be made to promote employment and income growth for urban and rural residents, tap into employment potential across various channels and sectors, vigorously cultivate new occupations and positions, promote shifts in employment concepts and enhancement of vocational skills, formulate and implement income growth plans for urban and rural residents, and strengthen the virtuous cycle of resident income growth, domestic demand expansion, and economic development. (Xinhua News Agency) [Preview: The State Council Information Office Will Hold a Press Conference on April 14 to Brief on Import and Export Performance in Q1 2026] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on April 14, 2026 (Tuesday), inviting Wang Jun, Deputy Commissioner of the General Administration of Customs, to brief on import and export performance in Q1 2026 and answer questions from reporters. [MIIT: Accelerate Building an Efficient and Unified AI Chip Computing Interconnection Ecosystem and Resolutely Eliminate "Involution-style" Competition in the PV Industry] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 2026 National High-Quality Development Conference for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry on April 10 in Wuhan, Hubei Province. The conference emphasized adhering to a value-oriented approach, promoting high-quality development of the advanced computing industry, accelerating the building of an efficient and unified AI chip computing interconnection ecosystem, and driving the industry chain toward higher-value segments. It also stressed adhering to a problem-oriented approach, carefully analyzing the current challenges facing the industry, proposing targeted development roadmaps, resolutely eliminating "involution-style" competition in the PV industry, and enhancing the resilience and security of key industry chains and supply chains. [CSRC: Launch More ChiNext-related ETFs and Options, and Introduce ChiNext Stock Index Futures in Due Course] A spokesperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission answered reporters' questions on the Opinions on Deepening ChiNext Reform to Better Serve the Development of New Quality Productive Forces, which mentioned enriching the product and service system. This includes optimizing the compilation of ChiNext-related indices, launching more ChiNext-related ETFs and options, introducing ChiNext stock index futures in due course, supporting fund advisory services in allocating ChiNext ETFs, incorporating ChiNext ETFs into the fund platform for transfer, better meeting the asset allocation and risk management needs of different investors, and enhancing investment convenience and attractiveness. [The Nationwide Mine Safety Risk Monitoring and Early Warning "Single Network" Has Been Basically Established] According to the Q1 regular press conference held by the National Mine Safety Administration, the nationwide mine safety risk monitoring and early warning "single network" has been basically established. Safety sensing data from all coal mines in normal production and construction, open-pit mines with high and steep slopes, tailings ponds, and 84% of non-coal underground mines in normal production and construction have been fully integrated into the national mine safety risk monitoring and early warning system. (Xinhua News Agency) [SSE: The Price Limit Ratio for Risk-Flagged Stocks on the Main Board Adjusted from 5% to 10%] The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) publicly solicited opinions on the revision of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Trading Rules. The revision mainly includes the following: First, the scope of securities eligible for after-hours fixed-price trading was expanded from STAR Market stocks to all A-shares and exchange-traded open-end funds. The adjustment helps meet investors' demand for trading at closing prices, extends trading hours for related products, and facilitates the entry of medium and long-term capital into the market. Second, the trading method during the closing session for funds was changed from continuous auction to closing call auction, with the closing price determined through call auction, consistent with SSE-listed stocks. Third, adaptive revisions were made in line with rule changes and business needs, adjusting the price limit ratio for risk-flagged stocks on the main board from 5% to 10%, refining rule language, and optimizing provisions on disciplinary actions. (Jin10 Data) [New Energy Power and Generation in Five Southern Provinces Hit Record Highs] According to China Southern Power Grid, new energy power and generation across the five provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan recently hit record highs. The maximum power generation capacity exceeded 100 million kW for the first time, with daily power generation reaching 1.4 billion kWh, accounting for 30% of total daily power generation. (Xinhua News Agency) US Dollar: Last Friday, the US dollar index extended its decline from the previous four trading days, falling another 0.11% to close at 98.69. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index posted a second consecutive weekly decline, down 1.49% for the week. US inflation surged sharply in March, with the war with Iran driving gasoline prices to their largest single-month gain since 1967, significantly intensifying overall price pressures. Data released Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% MoM, in line with market expectations, marking the largest single-month increase since June 2022; it rose 3.3% YoY, accelerating significantly from February's 2.4% and hitting the highest level since 2024. Gasoline prices posted their largest single-month gain on record since 1967, almost single-handedly driving the overall monthly increase , contributing nearly three-quarters of the monthly gain. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose only 0.2% MoM, below the market expectation of 0.3%, offering some relief to the market and boosting short-term interest rate cut bets. However, economists warned that the second-round effects of this energy shock had not yet been fully reflected in core inflation, and April data faced the risk of further increases. The US dollar fell after the data release. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April plunged from 53.3 in March to 47.6, hitting a record low. The current conditions index fell to 50.1, hitting a record low; the expectations index dropped to its weakest level since 1980; and the perception of current financial conditions tied the worst reading since 2009. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.8% over the next year. This figure surged 1 percentage point from March, marking the largest single-month increase since Trump announced sweeping tariff hikes a year ago. San Francisco Fed President Daly (2027 FOMC voter): Bringing inflation down to 2% is critically important, but doing so at the expense of employment would put households in a difficult position. US economic fundamentals are "solid," and the labour market is more stable. Risks to the US Fed's goals of full employment and inflation are balanced. It is necessary to watch how the conflict evolves and how enterprises pass through price increases. Policy is sufficiently restrictive to exert downward pressure on inflation, while also sufficiently balanced to support a stable labour market. Policy is in a good place, giving us more time to observe how the conflict resolves and how oil prices change. High CPI data would not surprise anyone. The real question is whether the ceasefire can hold — if it does, the high CPI will become "old news." (Wallstreetcn) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: US March existing home sales annualized total, US March NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US March PPI YoY, US March PPI MoM, China March trade balance in US dollars, China March trade balance, France March CPI MoM final, Eurozone February industrial output MoM, Canada February wholesale sales MoM, US April NY Fed Manufacturing Index, US March import price index MoM, US April NAHB Housing Market Index, Australia March seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, China March total retail sales of consumer goods, China March industrial value added of enterprises above designated size, UK February three-month GDP MoM, UK February manufacturing output MoM, UK February seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK February industrial output MoM, Eurozone March CPI YoY final, Eurozone March CPI MoM final, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, US April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US March industrial output MoM, Eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account, and Eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance. In addition, other events to watch this week included: the State Council Information Office held a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, where Vice Minister of the General Administration of Customs Wang Jun briefed on Q1 2026 import and export performance and answered questions from reporters; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank held their Spring Meetings, running through April 17; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo visited the US from April 13 to 18 to attend the G20 and International Monetary and Financial Committee meetings; the IMF released its World Economic Outlook report; the US Fed Board of Governors hosted "Strengthening the US Economy Through Rural Investment: A Working Forum"; Bank of England Governor Bailey participated in a panel discussion at Columbia University; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participated in a panel discussion ahead of the Semafor 2026 World Economy Conference; US Fed Governor Barr delivered opening remarks at the working forum hosted by the US Fed Board of Governors; Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and US Fed Governor Barr participated in a fireside chat at the US Fed Board of Governors' working forum; European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech; the National Energy Administration released total electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month; US Fed Governor Bowman delivered a speech at the Institute of International Finance forum; the US Fed released the Beige Book on economic conditions; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech on global economic imbalances on the sidelines of the IMF meetings; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the performance of the national economy; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech; the Group of Twenty (G20) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech. (Jin10 Data) Crude oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell overnight, with WTI down 2.29% and Brent down 1.73%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 14.26% for the week, while Brent fell 13.55%. The market focused on progress in US-Iran peace talks. , crude oil futures prices saw relatively small changes as traders were about to head into the weekend, while the US and Iran plan to hold talks that could determine whether a ceasefire in the Middle East can be sustained. Scott Shelton of TP ICAP said: "Traders have basically pulled out of the market. The $7 fluctuations like yesterday seem to have occurred with very few human traders involved. All they were doing was necessary hedging or cleaning up positions to further reduce risk exposure." He also said: "Maybe after this weekend, we'll have a clearer picture of whether the gap between Iran and the US is too wide to reach a deal." (Jinshi Data) Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) said on its social media on the 10th that only 4 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, including one Iranian tanker and one Russian tanker. (Xinhua) Baker Hughes data showed that US drilling companies cut oil and gas rigs for the third time in four weeks. A senior White House official said that skepticism pervaded the White House. The official said that Trump appeared to have acknowledged in recent conversations with advisors that the Strait of Hormuz was unlikely to fully reopen in the short term. However, at the same time, Trump posted on social media on Thursday that oil supply would be restored soon, but he did not elaborate further. The US Department of Energy (DOE) will lend 8.5 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to four companies. Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council: Gasoline prices are very high at present. I hope the surge in gasoline prices will not affect other areas. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC): As of the week ending April 7, speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures increased by 5,520 contracts to 109,227 contracts. (Jinshi Data) Recommended Reading:

(Kitco News) – The war in Iran and the ramping up of defense spending in Europe as well as the U.S. are contributing to a strong bullish setup for gold prices in the medium term, and $6,000 gold is still on the horizon, according to Chris Mancini, co-portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund (GLDAX) at Gabelli Funds.

(Kitco News) - Central bank gold demand continues to play an important role in the marketplace as prices have managed to hold critical long-term support, and China remains a dominant player in the sector.