[SMM Aluminum Alloy Flash] Quotations in the secondary aluminum alloy market were mainly stable today. Before noon, fluctuations in futures narrowed, and enterprises’ willingness to adjust prices weakened significantly, with most producers choosing to hold prices steady and wait on the sidelines. In the afternoon, as futures fluctuated downward, some producers began to lower quotations by 100 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream buyers still mainly made just-in-time procurement, but against the backdrop of a pullback in aluminum prices and the approaching weekend, some enterprises showed slightly stronger procurement willingness, and market transactions improved somewhat from the previous day.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Struggled to Break Out of Rangebound Trading, Spot Market Held Prices Steady While Actively Shipping SMM News, March 13: SS futures remained in the doldrums. However, after opening higher in the night session, SS fluctuated downward, with the pace of pullback accelerating further in the afternoon, and closed at 14,190 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by fluctuations in futures, quotations were largely stable, with limited changes during the week. Although the recovery in downstream demand and cargo pick-up of previous orders provided support, and stainless steel social inventory stopped rising and pulled back this week, market expectations remained mediocre, with merchants mainly holding prices steady while actively making shipments. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated stronger. As of 10:15 a.m., SS2605 stood at 14,275 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 245-445 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi were all basically stable; for cold-rolled trimmed 304/2B coils, the average prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were basically stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were basically stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted basically stable in Wuxi; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were basically stable. Entering the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April,” the stainless steel market ushered in a window for demand recovery, with downstream end-users gradually recovering and inquiry and purchase activity having picked up notably recently. However, stainless steel spot prices overall remained basically stable, with no obvious fluctuations. End-user procurement mainly followed rigid demand, and a full-scale peak-season boom had yet to emerge, while wait-and-see sentiment still lingered in the market. On the futures side, affected by Yi...

According to SMM data, during the week of March 9–13, 2026 , China’s stainless steel market moved into the middle phase of the traditional peak-demand season known as “Golden March,” while trading in the most-active stainless steel futures contract rolled smoothly into SS2605 . Against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and a visible turn in inventory trends, stainless steel futures continued to trade at relatively elevated levels. As of 10:15 a.m. on March 13 , the contract stood at RMB 14,275/mt (about USD 2,068/mt) , up RMB 40/mt (about USD 5.80/mt) from the previous Friday’s close. This week’s key market tension remained the mismatch between rising supply and only a modest recovery in demand. Although fundamentals have yet to show strong upward momentum, geopolitical risk premiums and persistently high raw material costs have kept downside pressure limited, preventing a broader correction from taking shape. Macro backdrop: geopolitics abroad, policy support in China At the macro level, external black swan risks and policy support in China have created a clear contrast. Iran reiterated that it would maintain the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing safe-haven demand and pushing the US dollar index higher. That, in turn, capped upside in dollar-denominated base metals. Meanwhile, US core CPI rose 2.5% year on year in February , in line with expectations, easing immediate inflation concerns. Even so, the market remains wary of a potential surge in energy prices in March. In China, the Ministry of Finance has signaled that fiscal policy in 2026 will remain more proactive, with RMB 100 billion (about USD 14.49 billion) allocated to strengthen coordination between fiscal and financial policy, particularly in support of household consumption and private-sector investment. That measured policy support has helped improve expectations for a broader recovery in commodity demand. Inventory draw emerges, but spot demand remains cautious On the fundamentals side, the stainless market has finally reached a meaningful inflection point in destocking, although spot trading still appears underwhelming. The latest SMM data shows that social inventories fell to 998,100 mt this week from 1,016,400 mt the previous week, a decline of 18,300 mt , taking inventories back below the psychologically important 1 million mt threshold. As downstream processing plants gradually resumed operations, demand continued to recover. However, while spot transactions improved from earlier levels, trading activity still fell short of the strength typically associated with the seasonal peak. End-users have largely remained focused on buying only what they need, with little appetite for active restocking. At present, the supply increase resulting from concentrated mill restarts in March is meeting only a slow improvement in end-use demand. That still-fragile recovery continues to limit market confidence in any stronger upside breakout during the peak season. Raw material costs remain the key floor Raw material costs continued to trend higher and remain the market’s main source of downside support. With geopolitical tensions lingering and tight ore supply from Indonesia continuing to feed through the market, upstream quotations kept rising. As of March 13 , high-grade NPI moved up further to RMB 1,094.5 per nickel unit (about USD 158.61 per nickel unit) , up RMB 6.5 (about USD 0.94) from a week earlier. High-carbon ferrochrome also climbed to RMB 8,650 per 50-basis mt (about USD 1,253.50 per 50-basis mt) . As raw material prices continue to move higher, stainless mills’ production cost floors are also rising. Although downstream buyers remain resistant to expensive material, room for mills to offer discounts has narrowed sharply under the pressure of high costs and, in some cases, negative margins. As a result, cost support for both futures and spot prices has become increasingly firm. Outlook: high-level consolidation likely to continue Overall, the stainless steel market is now caught in a complex tug-of-war defined by rising supply, only a weak recovery in demand, firm cost support, and a clear turn in inventories. The safe-haven and inflation-hedging logic stemming from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, together with NPI prices approaching the 1,100 threshold, has effectively limited downside in the futures market. At the same time, subdued spot order activity has capped upside momentum. Looking ahead to next week, the market will be watching closely to see whether the destocking trend can continue. The main focus will shift to actual arrivals following mill restarts and the pace at which downstream orders improve. In the near term, the most-active stainless steel futures contract is expected to remain rangebound at relatively high levels. Market participants are advised to closely monitor geopolitical developments and nickel ore price movements, as both could trigger sudden directional swings. Written by: Bruce Chew | bruce.chew@smm.cn +601167087088

Dalian iron ore futures gapped higher at the open today, stayed firm in the morning session, and were in the doldrums in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 811.5 yuan/mt, up 2.33% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, spot prices rose by 5-10 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were average in offering activity, while steel mills restocked on demand, with limited inquiries. Overall transactions in the spot market were sluggish. The SMM survey showed that total iron ore inventory at 35 ports nationwide reached 155.41 million mt this week, an increase of 610,000 mt WoW, with the pace of inventory buildup improving somewhat. Meanwhile, daily average port pick-up volume reached 2.53 million mt, down 20,000 mt from the previous period. Looking ahead, the moderating pace of iron ore inventory buildup indicated that demand had begun to recover. At the same time, due to structural adjustments on the supply side, rigid demand for iron ore shifted in a concentrated manner toward certain varieties, causing localized supply deficits and thereby forming strong bottom support. Coupled with still-robust bullish sentiment, iron ore prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, as upside pressure has eased somewhat while downside support remains strong.

[SMM Daily HRC Trading Volume] On March 13, the total daily HRC trading volume of sample enterprises in SMM's four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) was 15,910 mt, down 40 mt day on day (-0.3%), down 11.27% YoY on a calendar basis, and up 12.20% YoY on a lunar calendar basis.

SMM News, March 6: This week, LME lead opened at $1,940/mt. Early in the session, affected by the rapid fading of geopolitical safe-haven sentiment and broad weakness across the nonferrous metals sector, lead prices fluctuated downward and once fell to $1,927.5/mt. Subsequently, market sentiment somewhat recovered, and lead prices fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,949/mt. As bullish momentum weakened, prices turned weaker again and finally closed at $1,933/mt, down $13/mt from the beginning of the week, a decline of about 0.67%. This week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at around 16,780 yuan/mt, and early-session lead prices climbed to 16,815 yuan/mt. Subsequently, affected by both weak supply and weak demand in the spot market, prices fluctuated downward. During the session, lead prices rebounded slightly, but bearish strength remained strong, and the price center moved lower again. Near the close, after consolidating at lows, lead prices fell to 16,550 yuan/mt and finally closed at 16,555 yuan/mt, down about 220 yuan/mt from the beginning of the week, a decline of about 1.31%. 》Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

SMM News, Mar 12: The most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at around 16,605 yuan/mt during the day. In early trading, SHFE lead prices fluctuated rangebound within the 16,570-16,610 yuan/mt range. Bears then turned aggressive, dragging lead prices down to 16,550 yuan/mt. During the session, lead prices fluctuated and rebounded, touching a high of 16,630 yuan/mt. As downstream enterprises only made bargain-hunting purchases at low prices, mainly for rigid demand, and lacked momentum for concentrated restocking, support from the consumption side was insufficient. Lead prices pulled back again toward the close and finally settled at 16,555 yuan/mt. A full-bodied bearish candlestick was recorded, down 60 yuan/mt, or 0.36. As China's refined lead supply gradually recovered and more imported lead arrivals reached ports, spot cargo available in circulation remained ample, weakening sellers' bargaining power. Ahead of SHFE lead delivery, inventory was transferred to warehouses, while social inventory continued to accumulate, further capping room for a price rebound. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

This week, ferrous metals rebounded from the bottom. At the start of the week, coking coal and coke led the futures higher, mainly driven by rising crude oil prices in the overseas market, which pushed the energy and chemicals sector stronger accordingly; mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran signaled a more relaxed stance toward war, easing geopolitical tensions, while coal prices fell in tandem, weakening the cost-side logic, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs; in the latter half of the week, worsening short-term liquidity issues in BHP's iron ore port inventory triggered stronger iron ore prices in the overseas market, while the Middle East situation remained volatile, reinforcing cost support and pushing ferrous metals higher again. In the spot market, supported by futures, end-user and arbitrage purchase sentiment both improved WoW this week......

SMM, March 13: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,937.5/mt. During the Asian session, it moved sideways around the intraday moving average. After entering the European session, it rose to a high of $1,945.5/mt, then fluctuated rangebound at high levels before pulling back to a low of $1,932/mt. Before the close, it edged up slightly to recoup part of the losses, and finally closed at $1,935.5/mt, down $3/mt, or 0.15%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,605 yuan/mt. After dipping to a low of 16,550 yuan/mt in early trading, it rebounded and fluctuated around the intraday moving average, eventually closing at 16,595 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous day, or 0.21%.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Held Up Well, Spot Prices Remained Stable with Just-in-Time Procurement Dominating SMM News, March 12: SS futures showed a firm sideways movement. As geopolitical tensions in Iran continued to escalate and the US restarted the tariff war, macro news still had a notable disruptive effect on futures, and SS futures had yet to show a clear direction, closing at 14,245 yuan/mt by the midday break. In the spot market, affected by the sideways movement in futures, spot quotations continued to hold steady. Although the market has entered the traditional peak consumption season and downstream demand has recovered somewhat, expectations of high supply capped sentiment, limiting market acceptance of high-priced cargoes. Downstream players mainly made just-in-time procurement, while traders actively shipped goods for destocking. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated higher. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,290 yuan/mt, up 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi stood at 230-430 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi were generally stable; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, average prices in Wuxi and Foshan both held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi remained stable; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotations held steady; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were also stable. As the market entered the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," the stainless steel market saw a window for demand recovery. The downstream side gradually resumed work and production after the Chinese New Year holiday, and demand showed a trend of gradual recovery. However, although transactions improved from the previous period, the market still did not show the briskness typical of the peak season, and end-user procurement was mainly...