[SMM Nickel Flash] Although end-user demand provided weak support, supported by costs, the price center of high-grade NPI continued to move upward and only came under brief pressure after a sharp plunge in the futures market. Looking ahead, smelter production costs and traders' inventory holding costs remain high, and high-grade NPI prices are expected to stay supported.

Among them, the Gulf region was an important consumer market for China in the Middle East: China’s exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip to Saudi Arabia reached 42,500 mt, and aluminum foil 58,000 mt; exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip to the UAE reached 103,500 mt, and aluminum foil 93,800 mt; the other four countries (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman) accounted for combined exports of about 22,000 mt of aluminum plate/sheet and strip and about 11,000 mt of aluminum foil.

SMM March 13: This week, China’s domestic tungsten market exhibited high-level oscillations with intensified supply-demand competition. Multiple mines put products up for auction during the week, but transactions were bleak.As of March 13, tungsten prices remained largely stable, yet market sentiment became extremely divided.

[SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review] This week (March 9–March 13), the most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 opened at 534 yuan/gram and closed at 541.6 yuan/gram, down 15.7 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, a decline of 2.82%. The weekly highest price was 577.85 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 522.6 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 opened at 408.75 yuan/gram and closed at 408.1 yuan/gram, down 13.8 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, down 3.27% WoW from last week’s settlement price. The weekly highest price was 430 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 397 yuan/gram. Futures trading: The most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 recorded total trading volume of 31,227 lots during the week, with total turnover of 17.368 billion yuan and open interest of 19,989 lots; open interest decreased by 1,894 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 recorded total trading volume of 11,077 lots during the week, with total turnover of 4.616 billion yuan and open interest of 7,612 lots; open interest increased by 11 lots WoW. At present, the US–Iran conflict remained dominated by political expectations, while the reality on the ground was still unresolved. On the political-expectations front, Trump frequently released marginal de-escalation signals to curb oil prices, saying the Iran issue was only a short-term military operation and expressing willingness to engage in dialogue with Iran; the TACO trade pulled oil prices back to around 90. On the reality front, Mojtaba, son of Khamenei, formally succeeded to power, and Iran entered the “Era of Avengers,” beginning to threaten the Strait of Hormuz; its foreign minister said the new leadership would refuse to negotiate with Trump. If the US–Iran conflict continues to escalate, it will push up oil prices and trigger concerns over imported inflation in the US, thereby delaying the Fed’s progress on interest rate cuts. On tariffs, after reciprocal tariff was overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration will seek a more solid legal basis to rebuild the tariff framework. The risk of re-inflation remained relatively high, and disputes over new tax rates and tax rebates lifted policy uncertainty to some extent. In the short term, Trump filled the tariff-rate vacuum through the 122 temporary tariff; in the medium and long-term, he may maintain a high-tariff framework via 232 and 301. In addition, the massive tax rebate pressure brought about after reciprocal tariff was ruled illegal will further increase the US fiscal burden, thereby reinforcing the logic of a weaker US dollar and providing support to precious metals overall. Supply side, NERSA announced it had formally approved Eskom’s electricity price adjustment plan for the next two years: electricity prices will be raised by 8.76% in April this year and raised again by 8.83% in April 2027. As South Africa’s PGM mining is highly dependent on electricity, rising electricity prices will continue to lift the cost center for platinum and palladium. The US Department of Commerce issued an announcement, making an affirmative preliminary anti-dumping determination on unwrought palladium imported from Russia, preliminarily determining the dumping margin for all Russian exporters/producers at 132.83%. In terms of valuation, watch changes in the US dollar index, which involve the relative strength of currencies such as the euro and the yen. Pay attention to details on the new administrator announced by the LME. Pay attention to the March 19 FOMC meeting, changes in economic data, and the impact of Wosh’s remarks on monetary policy expectations. The precious metals sector mainly benefited from the policy and political-environment tug-of-war during the US Fed’s midterm-election time window. From a medium- and long-term perspective, the foundation for a bull market in platinum and palladium remained intact. In the short term, be alert to the risk of a phased adjustment driven by a delay in expectations for an interest rate cut; pullbacks should be viewed as medium- and long-term opportunities to add long positions. Amid high fluctuations in platinum and palladium, pay attention to position sizing. As domestic and overseas markets are not continuous, the opening price of platinum and palladium often references the overseas night session; investors should monitor trading prices in international markets and be wary of opening gaps. Spot market, this week most traders holding cargo actively quoted prices. Some traders reported that supply was currently relatively ample while the market was relatively sluggish. Most downstream clients had sufficient inventory and mainly stayed on the sidelines, with only some downstream buyers making small, negotiated purchases to meet order demand. Along with continued cooling in investment demand, transactions were relatively difficult and price involution was severe. Overall, spot market trading this week was generally subdued.

[SMM Chromium Weekly Review: Costs and Demand Jointly Drove the Market, with Strongly Bullish Sentiment] March 13, 2026: Quotations remained unchanged for the time being, and the chromium market operated steadily...

According to SMM data, during the week of March 9–13, 2026 , China’s stainless steel market moved into the middle phase of the traditional peak-demand season known as “Golden March,” while trading in the most-active stainless steel futures contract rolled smoothly into SS2605 . Against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and a visible turn in inventory trends, stainless steel futures continued to trade at relatively elevated levels. As of 10:15 a.m. on March 13 , the contract stood at RMB 14,275/mt (about USD 2,068/mt) , up RMB 40/mt (about USD 5.80/mt) from the previous Friday’s close. This week’s key market tension remained the mismatch between rising supply and only a modest recovery in demand. Although fundamentals have yet to show strong upward momentum, geopolitical risk premiums and persistently high raw material costs have kept downside pressure limited, preventing a broader correction from taking shape. Macro backdrop: geopolitics abroad, policy support in China At the macro level, external black swan risks and policy support in China have created a clear contrast. Iran reiterated that it would maintain the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing safe-haven demand and pushing the US dollar index higher. That, in turn, capped upside in dollar-denominated base metals. Meanwhile, US core CPI rose 2.5% year on year in February , in line with expectations, easing immediate inflation concerns. Even so, the market remains wary of a potential surge in energy prices in March. In China, the Ministry of Finance has signaled that fiscal policy in 2026 will remain more proactive, with RMB 100 billion (about USD 14.49 billion) allocated to strengthen coordination between fiscal and financial policy, particularly in support of household consumption and private-sector investment. That measured policy support has helped improve expectations for a broader recovery in commodity demand. Inventory draw emerges, but spot demand remains cautious On the fundamentals side, the stainless market has finally reached a meaningful inflection point in destocking, although spot trading still appears underwhelming. The latest SMM data shows that social inventories fell to 998,100 mt this week from 1,016,400 mt the previous week, a decline of 18,300 mt , taking inventories back below the psychologically important 1 million mt threshold. As downstream processing plants gradually resumed operations, demand continued to recover. However, while spot transactions improved from earlier levels, trading activity still fell short of the strength typically associated with the seasonal peak. End-users have largely remained focused on buying only what they need, with little appetite for active restocking. At present, the supply increase resulting from concentrated mill restarts in March is meeting only a slow improvement in end-use demand. That still-fragile recovery continues to limit market confidence in any stronger upside breakout during the peak season. Raw material costs remain the key floor Raw material costs continued to trend higher and remain the market’s main source of downside support. With geopolitical tensions lingering and tight ore supply from Indonesia continuing to feed through the market, upstream quotations kept rising. As of March 13 , high-grade NPI moved up further to RMB 1,094.5 per nickel unit (about USD 158.61 per nickel unit) , up RMB 6.5 (about USD 0.94) from a week earlier. High-carbon ferrochrome also climbed to RMB 8,650 per 50-basis mt (about USD 1,253.50 per 50-basis mt) . As raw material prices continue to move higher, stainless mills’ production cost floors are also rising. Although downstream buyers remain resistant to expensive material, room for mills to offer discounts has narrowed sharply under the pressure of high costs and, in some cases, negative margins. As a result, cost support for both futures and spot prices has become increasingly firm. Outlook: high-level consolidation likely to continue Overall, the stainless steel market is now caught in a complex tug-of-war defined by rising supply, only a weak recovery in demand, firm cost support, and a clear turn in inventories. The safe-haven and inflation-hedging logic stemming from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, together with NPI prices approaching the 1,100 threshold, has effectively limited downside in the futures market. At the same time, subdued spot order activity has capped upside momentum. Looking ahead to next week, the market will be watching closely to see whether the destocking trend can continue. The main focus will shift to actual arrivals following mill restarts and the pace at which downstream orders improve. In the near term, the most-active stainless steel futures contract is expected to remain rangebound at relatively high levels. Market participants are advised to closely monitor geopolitical developments and nickel ore price movements, as both could trigger sudden directional swings. Written by: Bruce Chew | bruce.chew@smm.cn +601167087088

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Struggled to Break Out of Rangebound Trading, Spot Market Held Prices Steady While Actively Shipping SMM News, March 13: SS futures remained in the doldrums. However, after opening higher in the night session, SS fluctuated downward, with the pace of pullback accelerating further in the afternoon, and closed at 14,190 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by fluctuations in futures, quotations were largely stable, with limited changes during the week. Although the recovery in downstream demand and cargo pick-up of previous orders provided support, and stainless steel social inventory stopped rising and pulled back this week, market expectations remained mediocre, with merchants mainly holding prices steady while actively making shipments. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated stronger. As of 10:15 a.m., SS2605 stood at 14,275 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 245-445 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi were all basically stable; for cold-rolled trimmed 304/2B coils, the average prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were basically stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were basically stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted basically stable in Wuxi; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were basically stable. Entering the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April,” the stainless steel market ushered in a window for demand recovery, with downstream end-users gradually recovering and inquiry and purchase activity having picked up notably recently. However, stainless steel spot prices overall remained basically stable, with no obvious fluctuations. End-user procurement mainly followed rigid demand, and a full-scale peak-season boom had yet to emerge, while wait-and-see sentiment still lingered in the market. On the futures side, affected by Yi...

March 13 News: Northern ports: South African high-grade ore, 32.5-35.4 yuan/mtu, prices up WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate, 38.9-39.4 yuan/mtu, prices up WoW from last Friday; Gabon ore, 44.3-44.9 yuan/mtu, prices up WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps, 44.9-45.4 yuan/mtu, prices up WoW from last Friday. South China ports: South African high-grade ore, 33-33.5 yuan/mtu, prices flat WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate, 35.9-36.4 yuan/mtu, prices up WoW from last Friday; Gabon ore, 42-42.5 yuan/mtu, prices flat WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps, 43.4-43.9 yuan/mtu, prices flat WoW from last Friday.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Center of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Moved Lower, Trading Was Slightly Sluggish Amid Structural Divergence in End-Use Demand]

This week, Pr-Nd alloy prices generally fell first and then rose, and have now stabilized in the range of 980,000-1 million yuan/mt. This price fluctuation was mainly driven by the impact of news factors on market sentiment.