SMM News, March 13: The SMM weekly operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces stood at 29.15% from March 6 to March 12, 2026, up 2.03 percentage points WoW. The operating rate in Anhui fluctuated around 15%, with no further signs of production resumptions at local secondary lead smelters; in Henan, the operating rate at a few smelters edged up as raw material inventory increased; in Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia, some smelters had yet to resume production, while operating smelters said raw material supply remained tight and constrained production growth. Next week, as large smelters in Shandong and Jiangxi resume production after the holiday and release capacity, weekly secondary lead production is expected to increase; actual market conditions still need to be monitored for constraints from factors such as raw material supply and downstream procurement sentiment. 》Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

At the start of this week, US nonfarm payrolls for February unexpectedly declined, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts rebounded somewhat, briefly boosting copper prices. Trump then signaled that tensions between the US and Iran might ease, sending oil prices lower and the US dollar weaker, which triggered a phased rebound in copper prices. However, after oil tankers in the Gulf region came under attack and Iran stated that it would continue to close the Strait of Hormuz, tensions in the Middle East escalated again. Rising crude oil prices lifted safe-haven sentiment, and the stronger US dollar index weighed on copper prices. At the same time, US February CPI came in line with expectations, and market bets on interest rate cuts within the year were scaled back markedly, weakening expectations for macro liquidity. In terms of positioning, bulls continued to reduce positions, and capital turned more cautious. Overall, macro uncertainty and repeated shifts in interest rate cut expectations remain intertwined, and copper prices are still likely to fluctuate rangebound in the short term. Fundamentals side, TC in the copper concentrates market was still falling. Recent mine tender prices pointed to a median of -$60/mt. For copper cathode, the inventory buildup showed a turning point, and the import window opened slightly. According to SMM, downstream operating activity was more active than expected, with active pricing below the copper price range of 100,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic is expected to remain unchanged, and geopolitical tensions are still expected to provide strong support to the US dollar, leaving significant short-term resistance for copper prices. However, fundamentals are supporting copper prices, which are expected to remain fluctuating near the range in the short term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $12,800/mt and $13,200/mt, and SHFE copper between 99,000 yuan/mt and 101,000 yuan/mt. In the spot market, as delivery approaches, spot market trading logic will fluctuate with the price spread between futures contracts and funding costs, and is expected to gradually rise next week. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to range from a discount of 180 yuan/mt to a discount of 80 yuan/mt.

Affected by the supply-demand relationship, MHP and high-grade nickel matte nickel prices rose this week

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Affected by Macro Disturbances, LME Zinc Maintained Wide Swings] LME zinc opened at $3,316/mt. In early trading, LME zinc fluctuated upward and touched a high of $3,331.50/mt, after which prices fell rapidly. It then rose and recovered the losses, but during European trading hours, as bears reduced open interest, LME zinc quickly dipped to $3,284/mt. In the night session, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, LME zinc gradually recouped the losses and returned to fluctuate above the average price line, finally closing down at $3,314.50/mt, down $1/mt, or 0.03%. Trading volume decreased to 82,887 lots, and open interest increased by 527 lots to 217,000 lots.

[Price Review] This week, silver prices continued to consolidate in a fluctuating range, but the war-driven rise in crude oil prices boosted US dollar demand again, putting pressure on precious metal prices and leaving the market relatively weak. Although during the week silver prices on the SGE tested the support level of 20,000 yuan/kg, and LBMA silver briefly fell below $80/oz, both later rebounded, indicating moderate support on the downside. This round of market movement was mainly affected by fading expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and the still-uncertain direction of geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Market participation in the silver market declined, and short-term fluctuations narrowed somewhat. Gold/silver ratio, both gold and silver prices showed a consolidating fluctuating trend this week, and the gold/silver ratio also fluctuated around 60. [Key Data] Bullish: US February seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls: -9.2, below expectations and the previous reading US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: -1.678 million, below expectations and the previous reading Bearish: US January retail sales MoM: -0.2%, above expectations and below the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: 382.4, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: The US Fed will announce its March interest rate decision and economic outlook, including the dot plot. The market generally expects the US Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, and the probability of an interest rate cut has fallen to near zero. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference after the rate decision to elaborate on the policy stance. US-Iran situation: Since the large-scale military action launched by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28, 2026, the conflict has lasted for more than two weeks. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the highest level of combat readiness, and the Foreign Ministry explicitly ruled out the possibility of opening negotiations. The transmission effect through the energy channel (inflation) far exceeded that through other channels. Inflation concerns instead weighed on expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, and the high-interest-rate environment pressured non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend amid the contest between macro disturbances and fundamentals. The continuing impact of the sharp rise in crude oil prices in the short term has gradually been transmitted, while renewed strength in demand for the US dollar and US Treasuries, together with cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, will keep precious metal prices under pressure in the short term.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Magnesium Market Continued to Consolidate at High Levels, with Cost Support and Demand Stalemate Persisting] This week, the overall magnesium industry chain continued to consolidate at high levels, with prices of all categories remaining largely stable. The raw material dolomite market operated steadily, with differentiated supply across regions but overall stability, while the procurement pace on the demand side remained steady. The magnesium ingot market remained in a supply and demand stalemate, as producers showed strong reluctance to sell, and low circulating inventory supported firm quotations. However, both domestic trade and foreign trade demand appeared weak, transactions were sluggish, and FOB quotations stayed at high levels, though actual deals were limited. The magnesium powder market remained stable with a firm tone, domestic trade demand continued to recover steadily, foreign trade growth was limited, and cost support remained in place. The magnesium alloy market's benchmark price held steady, processing fees remained firm, enterprise operating rates rebounded, and downstream demand gradually recovered, though the pace of growth slowed, with overall transactions remaining mild. Looking ahead, the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand is expected to continue, and the market may continue to consolidate at high levels.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,937.5/mt. During the Asian session, it moved sideways around the intraday moving average. After entering the European session, it rose to a high of $1,945.5/mt, then fluctuated rangebound at high levels before pulling back to a low of $1,932/mt. Before the close, it edged up slightly to recover part of the losses, and finally closed at $1,935.5/mt, down $3/mt, or 0.15%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,605 yuan/mt. After dipping to 16,550 yuan/mt in early trading, it rebounded and consolidated near the intraday moving average, finally closing at 16,595 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous day, or 0.21%. On the macro front: The fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in Beijing. The meeting voted to adopt the resolution on the government work report and reviewed and approved the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, charting the course for economic and social development over the next five years. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that although the February nonfarm payrolls report released last week came in weaker than expected, the mild pullback in initial jobless claims indicated that the scale of corporate layoffs remained limited, with employers still more inclined to retain workers. This eased market concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labour market. After the data release, major US stock indexes maintained their declines, while energy stocks were among the few sectors that rose due to a sharp increase in oil prices. Spot Fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. The center of SHFE lead moved further lower, and suppliers shipped in line with market conditions. In addition, with delivery approaching, some suppliers became less willing to sell, and quotations appeared somewhat firmer, with significantly fewer transactions at large discounts. Among them, ex-factory quotations in major primary lead producing areas were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, circulation of spot cargo in the secondary lead market was limited, and secondary refined lead was quoted ex-factory around parity against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased under long-term contracts, with limited spot order replenishment, while some purchased as needed. Trading in the spot market was subdued on both sides. Inventory: As of March 12, LME lead inventory fell by 375 mt to 284,500 mt; as of March 12, SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions continued its accumulation trend. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Approaching the weekend, operating rates at primary lead smelters in Hunan gradually resumed, though they had not yet returned to full production, and primary lead quotations in Hunan and Guangdong remained relatively firm. As the delivery date of the SHFE lead 2603 contract approached, suppliers were shifting inventory to delivery warehouses one after another, and social inventory of lead ingots continued to become more visible. With more imported lead arriving at ports and China refined lead supply gradually recovering, spot cargo in the spot market was relatively ample. Downstream enterprises had more procurement options, actively negotiated prices, and bought the dip. In the short term, the accumulation trend in social inventory of lead ingots is expected to be difficult to reverse, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

Geopolitical tensions, and concerns about fiscal policy and central banks, have driven the gold price to where it is today.

China’s silver prices fluctuated and consolidated this week. The price spread between the Gold Exchange TD price and the SHFE March contract kept narrowing, while a large volume of imported silver ingots entered the market to meet downstream demand, driving down spot premiums for physical silver ingots rapidly. Although many suppliers were reluctant to sell and mostly held firm on offers, downstream buyers actively negotiated for lower prices, and spot premiums in China had already fallen sharply by the end of the week. As of Thursday, in the Shanghai market, the tradable quote for domestic standard silver ingots against TD premiums had been lowered to 600-700 yuan/kg. A few suppliers held firm and were reluctant to sell at premiums of 700-800 yuan/kg against TD, but actual transactions were thin. In Shenzhen, imported large ingots were processed into small ingots before entering the market for trading. Some suppliers, concerned that spot premiums would continue to fall, sold at premiums of 400-500 yuan/kg against TD. Downstream buyers actively negotiated, but remained cautious and mostly stayed on the sidelines due to concerns over further declines in both absolute prices and spot premiums. Actual procurement transactions weakened, and some downstream purchasing demand was delayed until next week. Inventory side, silver social inventory across different regions rose and fell this week. Imported large ingots or silver ingots processed from imported crude silver raw materials entered social warehouses. As downstream demand remained strong, the increase in supply only led to a slight overall buildup in silver ingot social inventory this week.

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices moved sideways, with the center edging slightly lower. At the start of the week (March 9), prices dropped slightly, then fluctuated upward over the following two days, before turning lower again on Thursday (March 12). The weekly average price center of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate shifted lower WoW. Futures moved wildly, with prices of the most-traded contract posting wide swings between 142,000 yuan/mt and 167,300 yuan/mt. Market transactions were marked by a stalemate of "upstream reluctance to sell, downstream caution." Upstream lithium chemical plants generally showed weak willingness to sell spot orders, with a sentiment of holding back sales and holding prices firm throughout the week, and only a few enterprises made limited shipments when prices surged. Downstream material plants maintained a strategy of buying the dip. When futures prices quickly fell to relatively low levels, purchase willingness among some enterprises increased somewhat; however, after prices rose, they quickly turned cautious again, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, inquiry activity was moderate, but actual transactions were slightly sluggish. Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Upstream lithium chemical plants' reluctance to sell provided some support to prices, but downstream purchase willingness remained weak, lacking sustained demand boost. Against a backdrop of cooling futures market sentiment and declining open interest, prices lacked momentum to rise, while downside was constrained by costs and support from reluctance to sell. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.