【SMM Scrap Aluminium Market Analysis】Southeast Asia's Secondary Aluminum Industry Trapped in "Margin Squeeze": Raw Material Surge Forces ADC12 Plant Cuts, Industry May Enter "Lunar New Year Mode" Early February 2026 marked a period of unprecedented regulatory volatility for the global secondary aluminum and scrap markets. Driven by a confluence of tariff upheavals, aggressive decarbonization mandates, and stringent environmental crackdowns, the traditional flow of aluminum scrap is being fundamentally redrawn. As the United States implements sweeping new import surcharges, the European Union weighs restrictive export measures, and Southeast Asian hubs like Malaysia tighten their borders against contaminated materials, market participants are facing mounting compliance costs and disrupted arbitrage windows. This review examines the key policy shifts that defined the ex-China aluminum recycling sector this month and their immediate implications for global trade flows. The United States: How the 10% Surcharge Disrupts Secondary Aluminum Following the United States Supreme Court’s ruling, which invalidated Trump’s IEEPA tariffs on February 20, 2026, many trade goods found themselves navigating a complicated and chaotic new regulatory landscape. Within hours of the ruling, President Trump pivoted to Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, levying a 10% blanket global import surcharge that went into effect on February 24, replacing the former country-based tariffs. There have also been threats made by President Trump to raise this surcharge to the statutory maximum of 15%, which could further disrupt global trade and U.S. imports. Even though most primary aluminum products will not see a huge change due to already being burdened by the 50% Section 232 tariffs, the secondary aluminum market, which formerly enjoyed a 0% tariff under Section 232, might now be caught in the newest 10% blanket import surcharge. The US Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, published in February 2026, estimated an increase in imported scrap into the US in 2025, reaching roughly 890,000 metric tons, which is approximately a 27% increase compared to 2024. Even though scrap imports only make up roughly 20% of the US’s total scrap consumption, a blanket import surcharge will likely affect a significant portion of total scrap imports for the active period of the Section 122 policy. This is especially true as the policy remains highly volatile and faces the risk of being increased or challenged in the near future. Europe: The "Scrap Leakage" Debate and Impending Export Controls The EU aluminum recycling sector is also on edge following the closure of the EU’s public consultation in late January. Currently, trade measures are widely expected to be unveiled and launched during Spring 2026, aimed at curbing what the EU terms "aluminum scrap leakage." European Aluminum, as one of the biggest supporters of trade measures to control scrap leakage, cites outflows exceeding 1.3 million tons annually that could instead be utilized domestically to meet decarbonization and net-zero targets. In February, the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) released statements opposing these trade measures, stating that "the imposition of export restrictions or trade barriers is fundamentally unnecessary and risks producing significant unintended consequences for the entire value chain." BIR also explained how its own monitoring fails to identify scrap leakage issues, noting that the EU currently has insufficient domestic smelting capacity to absorb the extra scrap that is being exported out of Europe. In the same statement, BIR warned of a probable reduction in domestic aluminum scrap prices and a decline in the overall quality of waste management systems. Similarly, in 2025, the European Recycling Industries' Confederation (EuRIC) published stark warnings against the possible restriction of aluminum scrap exports. In a scenario where all grades of aluminum scrap are restricted from being exported, or if exports are hit with a significant surcharge, the Asian market, especially China, India, and Southeast Asia, all of which are large importers of EU scrap would be heavily impacted. Supply would see significant decreases, and prices outside Europe might climb to new highs as markets adjust to fill the gap, while secondary prices within the EU could drop to new lows due to localized oversupply. Malaysia: The E-Waste Crackdown and Stringent SIRIM Enforcement Following the success of "Ops Metal" in 2025, Malaysia has seen a massive volume of illegal scrap imports seized, amounting to a total value of RM 7 billion. In response to the influx of illegal scrap imports frequently mixed with electronic waste, the Malaysian government implemented an absolute e-waste import ban effective February 4, 2026, in order to curb these environmental violations. While aluminum scrap is still legally allowed to be imported into Malaysia, albeit under strict SIRIM purity requirements, the absolute e-waste ban will inevitably affect certain secondary grades. Notably, Zorba imports will likely see significant increases in transit and processing times, as customs officials are now far more likely to detain such cargoes for exhaustive inspections due to the high probability of e-waste contamination. In the broader picture, the volume of aluminum scrap legally entering Malaysia will likely decrease. Coupled with escalating processing delays at customs, this friction increases the probability that businesses will actively divert their aluminum scrap trade elsewhere in Southeast Asia, such as to Thailand. Conclusion Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2026, the secondary aluminum market will likely remain in a state of flux as these regional policies take full effect. The era of frictionless global scrap trade is rapidly giving way to a localized, highly regulated environment. For remelters and traders, navigating this landscape will require extreme supply chain agility and a hyper-focus on material compliance. As European supply risks being politically landlocked, U.S. raw material imports become suddenly more expensive, and Southeast Asian quality barriers rise, we expect to see continued volatility in regional premiums and a widening decoupling of traditional scrap-to-LME pricing mechanisms in certain regions. Adapting to this fragmented reality will be the defining challenge for the industry in the months to come.

Although March traditionally marks a demand recovery period and represents the final deadline for "export rush" orders ahead of policy changes, leading to a significant MoM increase compared to February, the magnitude of this recovery is expected to be more limited than pre-holiday forecasts suggested.

SMM7月14日讯： 金属市场方面: 截至午间收盘，内盘基本金属近全线下行，沪铝跌1.76%，沪铜跌0.15%，沪镍跌0.18%。沪铅跌0.29%、沪锌跌0.89%，沪锡涨0.37%。 此外，铸造铝主连期货跌1.35%，氧化铝主连跌1.14%。碳酸锂涨3.43%，工业硅跌0.12%。多晶硅跌0.82%。 黑色系多飘绿，铁矿微涨，螺纹、热卷分别跌0.22%、0.18%。不锈钢跌0.43%。双焦方面：焦煤跌0.16%，焦炭涨0.66%。 外盘金属方面，截至11:40分，LME金属涨跌互现，伦铝跌0.94%。伦镍涨0.18%。伦锌跌0.07%。伦锡涨0.36%。伦铅跌0.3%。伦铜涨0.33%。 贵金属方面，截至11:40分，COMEX黄金涨0.23%，COMEX白银涨0.58%；国内方面，沪金涨0.66%；沪银涨2.01%，盘中刷新历史新高至9267元/千克。全球最大黄金上市交易基金(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust公布，截至周五(7月11日)，其黄金持仓量为947.64吨，减少1.16吨，或0.12%。前一交易日为948.8吨。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）周五公布的报告显示，截至7月8日当周，黄金投机客减持COMEX黄金期货和期权净多头头寸1,855手，至134,842手。 截至午间收盘，欧线集运主力合约跌0.33%，报2010点。 截至7月14日11:40分，部分期货午间行情: 》7月14日SMM金属现货价格 现货及基本面 铜： 截至7月14日周一，SMM全国主流地区铜库存环比上周四增加0.39万吨至14.76万吨；相比上周四库存的变化，各地区库存除了上海地区外其他地区普遍增加...... 》点击查看详情 宏观面 国内方面: 【海关总署：上半年我国货物贸易进出口同比增长2.9% “新三样”产品增长12.7%】 国务院新闻办公室今日上午10时举行新闻发布会，请海关总署副署长王令浚等介绍2025年上半年进出口情况，并答记者问。Wang Lingjun introduced: Since the beginning of this year, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, China has adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, remained steadfast in managing its own affairs, unswervingly expanded high-standard opening up, and focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations while effectively responding to external shocks. The national economy has maintained overall stability with progress, and China's foreign trade has withstood pressures, sustained momentum, and demonstrated vitality amid complex environments. According to customs statistics, in the first half of this year, China's import and export of goods totaled 21.79 trillion yuan, up 2.9% YoY. Among these, exports reached 13 trillion yuan, increasing by 7.2%, while imports stood at 8.79 trillion yuan, down 2.7%. Specific features are highlighted in five aspects: 1) Steady growth in foreign trade scale. In H1, China's import and export scale exceeded 20 trillion yuan, reaching a record high for the same period. From a quarterly perspective, Q2 imports and exports grew 4.5% YoY, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points compared to Q1, marking seven consecutive quarters of YoY growth. 2) Diversification of foreign trade partners. 3) Optimized and upgraded export momentum. In H1, China's machinery and equipment exports reached 7.8 trillion yuan, up 9.5%, accounting for 60% of total exports—a 1.2 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year. High-end equipment closely related to new quality productive forces grew by over 20%, while "new three" products representing green and low-carbon sectors increased by 12.7%. 4) Expanding domestic demand stabilized imports. With policies like "implementing major national strategies" and "large-scale equipment upgrades" taking effect, imports turned positive in Q2. In H1, China's imports of machinery equipment for petrochemical and textile sectors achieved double-digit growth, key parts like electronic components grew rapidly, and imports of crude oil, metal ores, and other critical raw materials increased. 5) Vitality of foreign trade entities continued to release. 》Click for details [PBOC injects 119.7 billion yuan net liquidity today] The People's Bank of China conducted 226.2 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today at an unchanged interest rate of 1.40%. With 106.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing, the net injection reached 119.7 billion yuan. ► On July 14, the central parity rate of the yuan in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1491 yuan per US dollar. US dollar update: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.09% to 97.96. US President Trump announced in a letter to the European Commission that a 30% tariff will be imposed on all European goods starting August 1. Several EU analysts have stated that announcing tariff hikes is a negotiating tactic employed by Trump. The market is currently awaiting the US inflation data for June, which will be released on Tuesday, to gain more clues about the US Fed's path for interest rate hikes. According to media reports on Friday, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said that Trump's new tariffs could spark fresh concerns about inflation, which might force the US Fed to remain on the sidelines. In other currencies: The euro fell to a three-week low on Monday, and the Mexican peso also came under pressure after US President Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from the US's two largest trading partners starting August 1. Trump sent letters to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador on Saturday, announcing the new tariffs. In response, the EU and Mexico called the tariffs unfair and disruptive. The EU said it would suspend retaliatory measures against US tariffs until early August while continuing to urge a negotiated solution. During the Asian morning session, the foreign exchange market's reaction to Trump's latest tariff threats was largely mediocre, with only the euro falling to a roughly three-week low. The market has become increasingly insensitive to Trump's series of tariff threats. His recent stirring up of global trade turmoil has hardly been able to stop the US stock market from repeatedly hitting new highs, and has only slightly boosted the US dollar. Taylor Nugent, a senior economist at National Australia Bank, said it was difficult to attribute the market's mediocre reaction in the past week to either increased resilience or self-delusion. However, negotiations are still ongoing, and the recent key substantive progress was that the July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs had arrived without any tariff rate increases, making it difficult for the market to price in a series of major news items that were said to determine the tariff levels on August 1. Data: Today, data such as China's M2 money supply annual growth rate for June (time uncertain from July 14 to 17), China's total social financing for the year to date in June (time uncertain from July 14 to 17), and China's new yuan-denominated loans for the year to date in June (time uncertain from July 14 to 17) will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on financial statistics for the first half of 2025; the National Energy Administration will release data on total electricity consumption around the 15th of each month; and US President Trump plans to make a "major announcement" on Russia. Crude oil: Both crude oil futures rose slightly. As of 11:40, US crude oil was up 0.13%, and Brent crude oil was up 0.16%. Concerns that further US sanctions on Russia could affect global supply have supported oil prices, but increased production by Saudi Arabia and ongoing tariff uncertainties have limited the gains in oil prices. 国际能源署(IEA)称，沙特6月石油日产量超出目标43万桶，达到980万桶/日，而根据OPEC 配额该国的产量目标应为937万桶/日。沙特能源部周五表示，沙特完全遵守了OPEC 的自愿产量目标，并补充称，沙特6月的市场原油供应量为935.2万桶/日，符合配额要求。 美国能源服务公司贝克休斯(Baker Hughes)周五在其备受关注的报告中表示，美国能源公司本周连续第11周削减石油和天然气钻机数量，为2020年7月以来首次。数据显示，截至7月11日当周，未来产量的先行指标--美国石油和天然气钻机总数减少2座至537座，为2021年10月以来最低水平。（文华综合） 现货市场一览: ► 周末全国主流地区铜库存增加0.39万吨【SMM周度数据】 ► 铜价回落且月差收窄，下游采购积极性上升【SMM华南铜现货】 ► 交割日临近 市场氛围表现安静【SMM华北铜现货】 ► 上海锌：现货成交一般 升水继续走低【SMM午评】 ► 宁波锌：下游订单走弱 成交表现平淡【SMM午评】 ► 【SMM铁矿石航运】全球铁矿石发运量和到港量同步小幅下滑6% ► 【SMM钢材航运】上周中国出口钢材总量环比上升28% ► 【SMM煤焦航运】上周焦煤到港213.36万吨 环比+40.05万吨 ► 需求减弱但下游囤货意愿增强 光伏玻璃7月冷修产能再增【SMM分析】 其他金属现货午评稍后更新，敬请刷新查看~

酒钢集团宏兴股份公司2025年5月份废钢\棒麿铁集中采购预告 供应链管理分公司关于酒钢集团宏兴股份公司2025年5月份废钢\棒麿铁集中采购，现发布采购预告，请符合资格要求的供方参与报名，具体如下： 一、项目概况 项目名称： 酒钢集团宏兴股份公司2025年5月份废钢\棒麿铁集中采购预告 采购单位： 供应链管理分公司 交货地点： 宏兴股份公司炼轧厂 预计供货/施工开始时间： 2025年4月25日 预计供货/施工结束时间： 2025年5月31日 采购内容： 点击查看内容 二、报名资格要求 1.报名人须为中华人民共和国境内的独立法人或者其他组织；如涉及境外及港澳台报名人需提供所在地注册证书。 2.报名人应具有响应招标项目的能力。 3.报名人未被最高人民法院在“信用中国”网站列入失信被执行人名单。 4.报名人应具备新能源汽车或达到国六及以上排放标准汽车运输能力。 5.本次采购接受生产商 三、报名方式 供应商须在上述时间范围内响应预告，登录电子招投标系统（ https://eps.jiugangbid.com/ ），未注册供应商需首先完成注册后，点击对应采购预告“我要报名”，填写相关信息。 四、报名截止日期 2025年4月26日16时47分 五、交流反馈 1.报名人对本预告如有疑问的，可以向采购发布联系人提出询问。联系人：王中辉，联系电话：18093732206。 六、质疑投诉 对采购活动有质疑投诉的，请将信息发送至酒钢集团交易中心交易监督室邮箱（jyjds@jiugang.com），联系电话：0937-6713939。 相关附件 无 供应链管理分公司 2025年4月21日 点击查看招标详情： 》酒钢集团宏兴股份公司2025年5月份废钢\棒麿铁集中采购预告

酒钢集团宏宇新材料公司2025年5月份废钢\棒麿铁集中采购预告 供应链管理分公司关于酒钢集团宏宇新材料公司2025年5月份废钢\棒麿铁集中采购，现发布采购预告，请符合资格要求的供方参与报名，具体如下： 一、项目概况 项目名称： 酒钢集团宏宇新材料公司2025年5月份废钢\棒麿铁集中采购预告 采购单位： 供应链管理分公司 交货地点： 宏宇新材料公司炼钢厂 预计供货/施工开始时间： 2025年4月25日 预计供货/施工结束时间： 2025年5月31日 采购内容： 点击查看内容 二、报名资格要求 1.报名人须为中华人民共和国境内的独立法人或者其他组织；如涉及境外及港澳台报名人需提供所在地注册证书。 2.报名人应具有响应招标项目的能力。 3.报名人未被最高人民法院在“信用中国”网站列入失信被执行人名单。 4.报名人应具备新能源汽车或达到国六及以上排放标准汽车运输能力。 5.本次采购接受生产商 三、报名方式 供应商须在上述时间范围内响应预告，登录电子招投标系统（ https://eps.jiugangbid.com/ ），未注册供应商需首先完成注册后，点击对应采购预告“我要报名”，填写相关信息。 四、报名截止日期 2025年4月26日16时47分 五、交流反馈 1.报名人对本预告如有疑问的，可以向采购发布联系人提出询问。联系人：王中辉，联系电话：18093732206。 六、质疑投诉 对采购活动有质疑投诉的，请将信息发送至酒钢集团交易中心交易监督室邮箱（jyjds@jiugang.com），联系电话：0937-6713939。 相关附件 无 供应链管理分公司 2025年4月21日 点击查看招标详情： 》酒钢集团宏宇新材料公司2025年5月份废钢\棒麿铁集中采购预告

SMM Analysis: Copper Plate/Sheet and Strip Exports in March Were Generally Optimistic, Exports to the US Halved YoY. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's copper plate/sheet and strip exports totaled 10,543 mt in March 2025, up 40.5% MoM and 5.2% YoY. By March, China's copper plate/sheet and strip exports reached 28,424 mt.