SMM News, March 5: Data Brief: As of Thursday, March 12, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 0.57% WoW from last Thursday, ending the inventory buildup seen over the previous three consecutive weeks; total inventories increased 218,400 mt YoY from the same period last year, while regional performance remained differentiated. By region, copper cathode inventory in Shanghai continued to build up. Although consumption recovered somewhat, inventories still trended upward due to the impact of concentrated arrivals of imported cargoes and delivery factors; in Jiangsu, inventories declined slightly, supported by recovering downstream consumption; in Guangdong, consumption rebounded significantly and warehouse withdrawals increased, with inventories already reaching an inflection point and expected to continue declining going forward. Looking ahead, on the supply side, imported cargoes continued to arrive at port and domestic arrivals remained steady; on the demand side, downstream enterprises fully resumed production, and consumption recovered markedly. Based on the overall supply-demand pattern, supply is expected to remain normal next week while consumption steadily rebounds, and weekly copper cathode inventories are expected to destock somewhat.

[SMM Construction Steel Inventory: Divergence in Trends Between In-Plant and Social Inventories, Can Construction Steel Continue to Destock?] This week, the total inventory of construction steel continued to decline. The total inventory of rebar decreased by 2.43% WoW, and the total inventory of wire rod decreased by 9.97% WoW.

This week, nickel prices showed a "V-shaped" rebound but remained in an overall downtrend. In the spot market, the average price of SMM1# refined nickel fell from 124,150 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 122,325 yuan/mt on May 30, a decline of 1.4%. The premium for Jinchuan nickel remained in the range of 2,200-2,600 yuan/mt this week. In the futures market, influenced by rumors of an increase in Indonesia's nickel ore quotas, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2507) hit a weekly low of 118,630 yuan/mt, while LME nickel prices dipped to $15,000/mt before immediately rebounding to pre-decline levels. Ultimately, SHFE nickel closed at 121,100 yuan/mt this week, down 1.57%, and LME nickel closed at $15,325/mt, also down 1.57%. On the macro front, global attention this week was focused on the progress of US-EU trade negotiations and the policy direction of the US Fed. The US and the EU reached a short-term easing on tariff issues. However, the latest Fed meeting minutes signaled caution, with officials generally concerned that tariff policies could drive up inflation persistence, further cooling expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, the US announced that the revised Q1 actual GDP was -0.2%, an improvement from the previous -0.3%, but still indicating an economic contraction. The revised annualized QoQ core PCE price index was 3.4%, below the expected 3.5% and the previous 3.5%, showing a slight easing of inflationary pressures. In terms of inventory, the inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone was approximately 5,000 mt this week, down 700 mt WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 41,600 mt, down about 836 mt WoW, alleviating high inventory pressure to some extent. In the medium and long term, the global overcapacity of nickel remains unresolved, with the nickel market under triple pressures of "high supply, weak demand, and tight funding." In the short term, the bottom of the oscillation range is seen at 115,000 yuan/mt, with a ceiling pressure at 123,000 yuan/mt.

A large number of enterprises across the NEV industry chain are now running at low capacity.

[SMM Construction Steel Inventory: Stable Supply and Increasing Demand Accelerate Destocking of Construction Steel. Can the Destocking Speed Be Maintained After the Holiday?] This week, the total inventory of construction steel continued to destock. The total inventory of rebar decreased by 5.94% WoW, and the total inventory of wire rod decreased by 7.27% WoW.

In July, domestic aluminum ingots still failed to destock.

Last Friday, the SMM price of above-standard #553 silicon in east China was between 13,100 and 13,300 yuan/ton. Last week, the quotations of some silicon companies were lowered by about 100 to 200 yuan/ton. The bearish sentiment in the market prevailed, and downstream users maintained on-demand procurement.

【SMM Spot Copper】During the day, mainstream standard-quality copper was quoted at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, while high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 10-30 yuan/mt. According to SMM, domestic copper cathode social inventory continued to experience a slight buildup over the weekend, with the increase mainly concentrated in Guangdong. Attracted by the high premiums in Guangdong, some smelters increased shipments to South China, while east China continued to destock. It is expected that a batch of imported copper cathode will arrive in concentrated shipments in the near future, which may hinder the pace of social inventory destocking, and spot premiums are expected to rise slowly before the holiday.

SHANGHAI, Feb 29 (SMM) –Today, the price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 70 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day, at 18,860 yuan/ton, and Foshan A00 aluminum reported at 18,880 yuan/ton, increased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day.

【SMM HRC Weekly Balance & Social Inventory Review】Weak Supply and Strong Demand, Social Inventory Destocking in Good Condition This week, the impact of maintenance significantly weakened, HRC supply fluctuated rangebound. During this period, futures first rose and then fell, market transactions experienced a surge, and traders actively destocked, with social inventory showing a good downward trend. Looking ahead, the number of rolling lines under maintenance and planned for maintenance is relatively small in the short term, supply resistance is expected to rebound, but the space will not expand so quickly. Meanwhile, end-use demand remains resilient, and it is expected that national social inventory will continue to destock in the short term...